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Sri Lanka Equity Forum » Stock Market Talk » Yesterday friday illiquid stocks season starting

Yesterday friday illiquid stocks season starting

Go down  Message [Page 1 of 1]

shan


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Yesterday illiquid stocks season starting to move up next market days mostly possible major gainers illiquid stocks yesterday major gainers LPRT, COMD, HUEJ, BINN, CDIC, SING, ALLI ............



Last edited by shan on Sat Sep 08, 2012 1:53 pm; edited 1 time in total

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
Shan are you always playing and only looking at illilquids. Don't you have any other share which has better fundamental values.

Looks like again the gambler mentatility is coming.


If you must gamble with illquids have you ever noticed there are other More fundamentally solid illquids like HUNT.

worthiness


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
sltock-

Other than the above are there other non liquid counters.
Can we add more to the list of LPRT, COMD, HUEJ,BINN,CIDC,SING,ALLI,HUNT...

Such a guidance from admin may educate investors to reconsider their pre buying decisions. I guess no heavy resistance come up on this....

shan


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Slstock, i am a not gambler i buy illiquid stocks at low price in this bull run market when it will move up i will sell with more profits some time 100% profits from illiquid stocks.
HUNT also good for buy and some more stocks good for buy SINI , ASPH , PHAR , COMD , CDIC , LPRT , HARI , SLND , KZOO , CPRT , OFEQ , PARA , SING , AUTO ,UCAR , ALLI , GEST ..............

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
Worthiness,

Actually "Admin" position purely per say is like watchdog ( like SEC ) , who is supposed to Administrate the forum to keep it in order.

But myself and Small goes beyond that due to our interests in stock markets and as Social service to educate and learn. So I guess we are doing 2 jobs here ( volunteerily) .


Anyway on the topic of illiquids , new comer are strongly adviced to only play with these shares if you know what price to buy and sell. Don;t buy at the top . You can get burned very bad.



BINN is a bare land tsunami destroyed with no hotel! I can;t believe soem jokers made this run to Rs 190 one time. Shows there will be always suckers created in the market.


Some of the more fundamentally sound illiquids trading at low to decent valuations ( that comes to mind) are ALLI, CIND, HUNT from top of my mind. HUNT was once at Rs 2000 and the market beat it down to Rs 300.

ALLI trading at PER of 4 and trading around NAV. This is a share clearly worth over Rs 1000 to me.
CIND around estimated PER of 7 and trading well below NAV ( 90 if I remember right).

HUNT trading well below NAV though PER would be higher. But this share once traded at Rs 2000 and now Rs 300s lowest for many years.



Last edited by slstock on Sat Sep 15, 2012 5:52 pm; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : cind nav is 90+)

The Alchemist


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@slstock, interesting you mention HUNTERS ! i Think their EPS is around Rs 25, but its their NAV which is interesting. For lack of proper info on land/property valuation, difficult to estimate value. I think over Rs 1000 based on the following :
- approx 10 acres in Naharenpita (Lanka Canneries MD Property)
- Colonial Mansion on Queens Road on 120 Perches - Rs. 1 Billion (When Al Naqib a major shareholder queried at AGM why property is valued on company books at Rs 200 mill, MD Dossa said thats the value. then Al Naqib immediately offered to buy at Rs 500 Mill stating value as Rs 1 Billion)
- Front Street Pettah Property & Building
- Darley Road Hunters Showroom & Property (1 acre ?)
- MD Brand
- Numerous Agencies

Speculative share. Value beaten down due to borderline Corporate Governance and Lack of Transparency. I believe some major shareholders had some legal issue with owners/managers in the recent past. Will make a good acquisition target for many companies.

anu

anu
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@slstock wrote:Shan are you always playing and only looking at illilquids. Don't you have any other share which has better fundamental values.

Looks like again the gambler mentatility is coming.


If you must gamble with illquids have you ever noticed there are other More fundamentally solid illquids like HUNT.

Illiquid stocks are absolutely out of my radar, except for RENU, which has good value.

Just ran through HUNT 1st qtr accounts for 2012. Group has posted a loss for this qtr and the figure for the corresponding qtr last yr was 2.91.

Bank borrowings have doubled to 500Mn compared to corresponding prev yr qtr. This shows the interest cost will be quite high.

Purely because NAV is 443, I think one should not pay such a high premium. So at 320 even this stock is fairly overpriced.

Fresher


Moderator
Moderator
slstock,

what valuation would you give HUNT now?
last quarter was loss making and even before, not an EPS that deserves 2000/-
Even the Book value is arnd 450/-

Edit: Just saw alchemist's post. Didn't know the true value of the properties.

But the main S/H has more than 70% and don't think it can be easily taken over.
Given that it's doing business which is in the borderline profit/loss, I wouldn't pay that high a premium.

Anyway, what's the real NAV?



Last edited by npp on Sat Sep 08, 2012 3:13 pm; edited 1 time in total

anu

anu
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@The Alchemist wrote:@slstock, interesting you mention HUNTERS ! i Think their EPS is around Rs 25, but its their NAV which is interesting. For lack of proper info on land/property valuation, difficult to estimate value. I think over Rs 1000 based on the following :
- approx 10 acres in Naharenpita (Lanka Canneries MD Property)
- Colonial Mansion on Queens Road on 120 Perches - Rs. 1 Billion (When Al Naqib a major shareholder queried at AGM why property is valued on company books at Rs 200 mill, MD Dossa said thats the value. then Al Naqib immediately offered to buy at Rs 500 Mill stating value as Rs 1 Billion)
- Front Street Pettah Property & Building
- Darley Road Hunters Showroom & Property (1 acre ?)
- MD Brand
- Numerous Agencies

Speculative share. Value beaten down due to borderline Corporate Governance and Lack of Transparency. I believe some major shareholders had some legal issue with owners/managers in the recent past. Will make a good acquisition target for many companies.

Thanks for this Alchemist. Valuable info.

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
Anu,

You are making a hasty observation just looking at 1 quarter report. Read alchemist post. HUNT has some other hidden positives. Just because in one quarter they report - eps it is nothing worry so much. Look at their 5 year history. So far they have not made any losses any year and their is growth. ( though not big) .


I agree about ALchemist, about the transparency issues. There was a tassle between Mr Al Naqib and the Management) I think he started selling down part of his holdings due to it.

Do you know this share was bought by DJ , NP at Rs 1200 and disposed.

BOC also bought at Rs 1200 I think and still holding.



If Hunt is fair value then PHAR should not be at Rs 600 either . Nor HARI ,SLND, KZOO or many other shares. ALso even some good companies will be in trouble who reproted - eps this quarter.

Anyway i did not say HUNT is the best illquid. At least it has asset and NAV to back it. I said it is far better than other mentioned. I also mentioned some other shares.

I would like others to post their finding too , so I can benefit ? And yes RENU is another very good illqiuid staying low still.

Thanks ALchemist , I appreciate your depth to the post.






@anu wrote:
@slstock wrote:Shan are you always playing and only looking at illilquids. Don't you have any other share which has better fundamental values.

Looks like again the gambler mentatility is coming.


If you must gamble with illquids have you ever noticed there are other More fundamentally solid illquids like HUNT.

Illiquid stocks are absolutely out of my radar, except for RENU, which has good value.

Just ran through HUNT 1st qtr accounts for 2012. Group has posted a loss for this qtr and the figure for the corresponding qtr last yr was 2.91.

Bank borrowings have doubled to 500Mn compared to corresponding prev yr qtr. This shows the interest cost will be quite high.

Purely because NAV is 443, I think one should not pay such a high premium. So at 320 even this stock is fairly overpriced.

smallville

smallville
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Its very difficult to predict the directions of illiquids due to low volume traded.. Sometimes 3000-5000 means high volume on some counters..
We never know the counter we bought could climb up or down.. If ur a follower u might know a bit of trading ranges than others cuz some times these are swinging back n forth on these ranges.. some counters now I can see have fallen enuf, formed bottoms and also started running..

Chart patterns for HUEJ & HUNT..

Yesterday friday illiquid stocks season starting Huej10

Yesterday friday illiquid stocks season starting Hunt10

ALLI has a triangle pattern but is goin up on thin volumes..
Yesterday friday illiquid stocks season starting Alli10

anu

anu
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
slstock, thanks. I got it from Alchemist's post, which is not necessarily reflected in the financials. Price has gone up purely on perceived value rather than what is in actual accounts.

Thanks to smallville for those excellent charts.

kasun333


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
smallville i need a techical side of citk bacause lot of people says many things thats why.i personaly belive u are the right person for that in tecnically

dineshfernando


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
As far as the illiquid shares are concerned, I can think of only ALLI and DIMO as fundamental. Reasons:

1) both trade less than their NAV
2) both have PE less than 5
3) both pay high dividends (in a market downfall you at least get dividends)
4) both businesses been surviving and will survive in difficult times (going concern)

Majority of the illiquid stocks are highly manipulated. New comers should avoid weak illiquid shares.
Eg: KZOO, HARI, SLND, OFEQ - These shares are extremely overvalued, manipulated and should be avoided.

Gainer

Gainer
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
ASPH still low price trading end of last year heavily traded more than Rs 800.00 now trading 300.00 levels.

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