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Sri Lanka Equity Forum » Stock Market Talk » which currency is best for NRFC

which currency is best for NRFC

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1which currency is best for NRFC Empty which currency is best for NRFC on Tue May 13, 2014 5:18 pm

naveen


Stock Trader
hi,
i am going to work in UAE, and i want to start a nrfc account. can any body tell me which currency is best for future? support ur answers :-)

2which currency is best for NRFC Empty Re: which currency is best for NRFC on Tue May 13, 2014 6:07 pm

sew


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
US would be the most favorable.

3which currency is best for NRFC Empty Re: which currency is best for NRFC on Wed May 14, 2014 7:07 am

Pethi

Pethi
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@naveen wrote:hi,
i am going to work in UAE, and i want to start a nrfc account. can any body tell me which currency is best for future? support ur answers :-)

Australian $

it was 1.1 $ US
and now 93 cents
going up........!

even NZ$ would be better it was .80 $AUS now almost same but less demand.

Try some Euro also. they are picking up too.

Or if it is too complicated, convert them to Rupiyal Very Happy and then play cricket...! what about that???  lol! just kidding....!

4which currency is best for NRFC Empty Re: which currency is best for NRFC on Wed May 14, 2014 7:15 am

Octopus

Octopus
Expert
Expert
hopefully pethi wants to bring little bit of humor to the forum.
currency is another art of business.

if you don't play the game. you have to pay commission for each conversion and depend on the country and its financial status.

Seems pethi is smarter and doing business in currency.

pethi what do you think about other currencies such as franc or crone?????

5which currency is best for NRFC Empty Re: which currency is best for NRFC on Wed May 14, 2014 7:19 am

Pethi

Pethi
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
they are the best currencies in the world. crone. but people always go after US $ because they have no other option. it is the worlds reserve currency.

hopefully china renminbi will beat the US $ one day, may be at least my grand children's time.

power of $ US is back by the gold.

6which currency is best for NRFC Empty Re: which currency is best for NRFC on Wed May 14, 2014 7:21 am

Octopus

Octopus
Expert
Expert
thanks Pethi...!

7which currency is best for NRFC Empty Re: which currency is best for NRFC on Fri May 16, 2014 4:30 pm

ADP

ADP
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@Pethi wrote:
power of  $ US is back by the gold.

Not since 1971.

8which currency is best for NRFC Empty Re: which currency is best for NRFC on Fri May 16, 2014 4:33 pm

MARKETWATCH2


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Avoid NZD, AUD

Go for USD, Sri-Lankan rupee and pound,

9which currency is best for NRFC Empty Re: which currency is best for NRFC on Fri May 16, 2014 4:48 pm

MARKETWATCH2


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
OVER VALUED CURENCIES IN THE WORLD

1 NZD 2. AUD

After gold big sell off in above two


10which currency is best for NRFC Empty Re: which currency is best for NRFC on Fri May 16, 2014 6:51 pm

Antonym

Antonym
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@naveen wrote:hi,
i am going to work in UAE, and i want to start a nrfc account. can any body tell me which currency is best for future? support ur answers :-)
When deciding on which currency to store your savings in, you need to look at:
(i) Preservation of value (or likely appreciation) vis-a-vis LKR,
(ii) Interest rate earned by the currency and
(iii) Buy-sell spread, while converting from AED to 'Selected Currency' to LKR.

Taking these 3 factors into account, I would recommend that you store your savings in USD. Before you depart for the UAE, ask your banker about SFIDA Fixed Deposits in USD.

11which currency is best for NRFC Empty Re: which currency is best for NRFC on Sat May 17, 2014 7:19 am

MARKETWATCH2


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
NZD is in bubble territory.Second AUD. They appreciated more than 50%n against USD and other Asian currencies last couple of years. NZD and AUD Due for bigger downturn against USD and Asian currencies.

12which currency is best for NRFC Empty Re: which currency is best for NRFC on Mon May 19, 2014 8:07 am

Pethi

Pethi
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@MARKETWATCH2 wrote:NZD is in  bubble territory.Second AUD. They appreciated more than 50%n against USD and other Asian currencies last couple of years. NZD and AUD Due for bigger downturn against USD and Asian currencies.

Australia and NZ is less volatile to worlds stupid decisions.
recently I heard they are called down under's because they are hidden and down under the world.
and also they are very close to worlds greatest booming and challenging economy china.
forget everything. in the past we heard people go to Italy by boats. but now they all travel to Australia by boats. even from middle east.
one of my friends said, they have lot of metals like uranium, gold, silver and coal which is needed for energy.
and also a top investor said recently their new government is working to get the budget surplus again.

there is not a single country in the world thinking to bring them surplus. because they all have sunken in debt.

what I am saying is.....$ US is hopeless now. I recommend to buy Aus $.

13which currency is best for NRFC Empty Re: which currency is best for NRFC on Mon May 19, 2014 8:11 am

Pethi

Pethi
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@ADP wrote:
@Pethi wrote:
power of  $ US is back by the gold.

Not since 1971.

you are talking about gold standard....!
this is fundamentals of investing.
take US $ Graph
then take gold price.

compare...... my friends....!

14which currency is best for NRFC Empty Re: which currency is best for NRFC on Mon May 19, 2014 8:16 am

Octopus

Octopus
Expert
Expert
@Pethi wrote:
@MARKETWATCH2 wrote:NZD is in  bubble territory.Second AUD. They appreciated more than 50%n against USD and other Asian currencies last couple of years. NZD and AUD Due for bigger downturn against USD and Asian currencies.

Australia and NZ is less volatile to worlds stupid decisions.
recently I heard they are called down under's because they are hidden and down under the world.
and also they are very close to worlds greatest booming and challenging economy china.
forget everything. in the past we heard people go to Italy by boats. but now they all travel to Australia by boats. even from middle east.
one of my friends said, they have lot of metals like uranium, gold, silver and coal which is needed for energy.
and also a top investor said recently their new government is working to get the budget surplus again.

there is not a single country in the world thinking to bring them surplus. because they all have sunken in debt.

what I am saying is.....$ US is hopeless now. I recommend to buy Aus $.


good explanation. you have given reason to go up. we need facts. appreciate your comments

15which currency is best for NRFC Empty Re: which currency is best for NRFC on Mon May 19, 2014 11:19 am

VALUEPICK

VALUEPICK
Expert
Expert
Very interesting discussion. Some Analysts tried to predict bullish AUD and they said it is going to trade above USD.  We know what happened after that: Billionaire investor George Soros shorted AUD IN 2013. Then it started to come down against USD. These countries want to see there currencies to depreciate because their export sector has become less competitive. No currency will go straight up and down.
In short last couple of year there was a bull market for NZD and AUD. They will have bear market sooner than later. Some of the coming bull currencies are South Asian rupees including Sri-Lankan rupee, USD and Pound. Pound already had some rally. We will see rally in Rupees and USD as well. There will be less volatility between USD and Sri-Lanka rupee in the coming quarters. On the other hand USD and Asian currencies including Sri-Lankan rupee will go up sharply against AUD and NZD coming quarters. NZD is number one vulnerable currencies in the world now.

Some investors were correct in their decisions. Eg; how they said about AUD in 2013.

http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2013/05/08/druckenmiller-investors-should-short-australian-dollar/

Druckenmiller: Investors Should Short Australian Dollar

16which currency is best for NRFC Empty Re: which currency is best for NRFC on Mon May 19, 2014 11:45 am

Pethi

Pethi
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@VALUEPICK wrote:Very interesting discussion. Some Analysts tried to predict bullish AUD and they said it is going to trade above USD.  We know what happened after that: Billionaire investor George Soros shorted AUD IN 2013. Then it started to come down against USD. These countries want to see there currencies to depreciate because their export sector has become less competitive. No currency will go straight up and down.
In short last couple of year there was a bull market for NZD and AUD. They will have bear market sooner than later. Some of the coming bull currencies are South Asian rupees including Sri-Lankan rupee, USD and Pound. Pound already had some rally. We will see rally in Rupees and USD as well. There will be less volatility between USD and Sri-Lanka rupee in the coming quarters. On the other hand USD and Asian currencies including Sri-Lankan rupee will go up sharply against AUD and NZD coming quarters. NZD is number one vulnerable currencies in the world now.

Some investors were correct in their decisions. Eg; how they said about AUD in 2013.

http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2013/05/08/druckenmiller-investors-should-short-australian-dollar/

Druckenmiller: Investors Should Short Australian Dollar


Valuepick is correct. But there are different investors. investors like me always adjust and want to sit comfortably before the rally begins.therefore I try to see the big picture. I don't like to panic and make wrong decisions. I don't expect short term profits. I am a long term investor. there was a short downfall in Aus $ to .85cents. but it went back to 94.cents. Chinese demand for Aussie properties are booming everyday. They are migrating to Australia for many reasons.


your USA$ is good prediction. things are settling down. but the fire is still moldering under the ashes. (Ukraine) things should continue as it is for another year to see things stable.gold prices are down which means US $ is picking up.

However, I collect Aus $ slowly. but I don't recommend south Asian rupees at all. our currencies depreciate a lot. we have no manufacturing in our countries. old tea, rubber and coconuts also not giving us profits. but on the other hand, tourism is booming. there is no single country in the world has developed only from tourism. Manufacturing is a must.

once upon a time, I converted my Aus $ to 136 Sri Lankan rupees. which gave me lot of profits.
I started collecting them again. because the history will repeat. Australia is a big country, less populations, back by western as well as eastern nations(China), no enemies, no terrorism, lot of production, lot of metals. can tick all the boxes.


17which currency is best for NRFC Empty Re: which currency is best for NRFC on Mon May 19, 2014 12:42 pm

ADP

ADP
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@naveen wrote:hi,
i am going to work in UAE, and i want to start a nrfc account. can any body tell me which currency is best for future? support ur answers :-)

Naveen,

Im not sure if you are looking at trading or with your deposit or simply need a way to store your money till you get back home.

Apart from the good advice given by many members also look at gold as means to store your earnings. I believe gold will outperform most fiat currencies given time. but two drawbacks are the asset only will earn you capital gains and no interest plus storing it safely would incur a cost.

As you have asked for a reasons just watch the documentaries at the below site to get an idea why i like gold.     

http://hiddensecretsofmoney.com/

18which currency is best for NRFC Empty Re: which currency is best for NRFC on Mon May 19, 2014 1:41 pm

SHARK aka TAH

SHARK aka TAH
Expert
Expert
Why dont you build up your portfolio from now. Better returns than nrfc. Invest in good companies.you will gain more

19which currency is best for NRFC Empty Re: which currency is best for NRFC on Tue May 20, 2014 1:43 pm

VALUEPICK

VALUEPICK
Expert
Expert
Higher currency rate have affected badly for their export sector in Australian and New Zealand. Exchange rate still 'No 1' concern for their exporters .They will do their best to put down their currencies to save their export sector and employment. Some companies already moved some of their production plants to overseas due to higher cost.

http://www.news.com.au/finance/business/ford-workers-fear-for-their-futures-after-decision-to-shut-down-geelong-and-broadmeadows-factories-in-2016/story-fnda1bsz-1226648895882

Ford workers fear for their futures as plants to close in 2016

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/economics/rba-warns-australian-dollar-likely-to-fall-further/story-e6frg926-1226924147944

RESERVE Bank of Australia deputy governor Guy Debelle has warned a decline in capital inflows at the end of the investment phase of the mining boom could see the Australian dollar fall further.

Addressing the Financial Services Institute of Australia in Adelaide, Mr Debelle noted that as foreign investors played a key in the financing of the investment phase of the resource boom, which he said had peaked, the transition to the production phase of the boom should coincide with reduced capital inflows.
At the same time, he said, the increase in resource export volumes should increase the resources sector’s export revenue.
“The combination of higher revenues and lower capital expenditure outlays could be expected to lead to an increase in resources sector profits and, particularly, an increase in the share of these profits that are paid out as dividends to investors,” he said.
He warned, however, that as the resources sector is largely foreign-owned, this would be accompanied by an increase in dividend payments to foreign investors.
Mr Debelle said the transition from investment to production was likely to reduce net capital inflows to the resources sector, but said the effect on the Australian dollar was “more nuanced”.
“While capital inflows to the resources sector may be expected to fall — and thus reduce demand for Australian dollars — this will also be associated with declining imports to the sector, as resource investment has relied heavily on imported capital and labour.”
Mr Debelle flagged the possibility of reduced capital flows and reduced demand for Australian dollars as the resources sector moves into the production phase, particularly as resource firms’ revenues are primarily denominated in US dollars and their shareholder base chooses to be paid dividends denominated in US dollars.
“Only those flows needed to pay for the operations in Australia, to pay dividends to the Australian shareholder base and taxes to the Australian government will result in purchases of Australian dollars.”
Resources companies exposed to iron ore will also have to factor in the volatility of the commodity, which fell below the key $US100 a tonne threshold overnight
http://www.american.com/archive/2014/may/are-the-u-s-dollar2019s-days-really-numbered

Are the U.S. Dollar’s Days Really Numbered?
By Desmond LachmanMonday, May 19, 2014
Filed under: Economic Policy, Big Ideas, Boardroom, World Watch
The U.S. dollar will remain the world's reserve currency because no other major currency offers such liquidity, depth of financial markets, and store of value.

Some years ago, I attended a small luncheon on the outlook for the U.S. dollar. Paul Volcker, the former Federal Reserve chairman, was the guest of honor. In response to a chorus of Cassandras who argued that the U.S. economy’s all too apparent weaknesses would lead to an inevitable dollar collapse, Volcker made a simple observation: For the dollar to depreciate, he said, it would necessarily have to depreciate against another currency. And in Volcker’s view, at that time, the U.S. economy was fundamentally no weaker than that of any competing countries.
Volcker’s logic would seem equally pertinent today in responding to the many critics who believe that the Federal Reserve’s unprecedented quantitative easing policy will lead to the dollar’s imminent demise as a reserve currency. If the dollar is to lose its reserve status, as epitomized by the fact that more than 60 percent of the world’s foreign exchange and more than 85 percent of world trade is still denominated in U.S. dollars, some other currency would need to replace it. A close examination of the world’s other major currencies reveals that a currency is yet to emerge that offers the liquidity, depth of financial markets, and store of value that the U.S. dollar does.
To be sure, when viewed in isolation, there are many reasons not to be complacent about the U.S. dollar’s long-run future. After all, the U.S. economy is only now emerging from its worst economic and financial crisis since the 1930s. At the same time, its dysfunctional political system is yet to come to grips with the country’s long-term budget issues, while the Federal Reserve has more than quadrupled the size of its balance sheet to its present level of around $4 trillion in an effort to get the U.S. economy moving again.
Yet, despite all of its weaknesses, the U.S. economy’s recent performance has been considerably brighter than that of the other major industrialized countries. Not only has the U.S. economy recovered the most strongly from the 2008-2009 Lehman crisis, but its economic outlook for 2014 and 2015 remains the brightest of the industrialized countries, as acknowledged by the IMF’s recently published World Economic Outlook. On the basis of that recovery, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office is now forecasting that the U.S. budget deficit will be as low as 2.75 percent of GDP in 2014 and 2015, while by 2024 the U.S. public debt will still be comfortably below 80 percent of GDP.
Despite all of its weaknesses, the U.S. economy’s recent performance has been considerably brighter than that of the other major industrialized countries.
Perhaps most importantly for the U.S. dollar’s future as a reserve currency, there appears to be no sign of any resurgence in U.S. inflation, despite all the dire warnings about the unprecedented expansion in the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet. Indeed, U.S. inflation is currently running at around 1 percent, or half the Federal Reserve’s desired target, while long-term U.S. inflationary expectations appear to be very firmly anchored.
The prospect for the U.S. dollar maintaining its dominant status as a reserve currency becomes all the brighter when one considers the prospects of those currencies that could conceivably challenge that status. This is most evidently the case when one considers the clouded prospects for the euro, which accounts for almost 25 percent of world international reserves and which until very recently has been touted as the currency that could seriously challenge the U.S. dollar’s dominant position.
Despite the market’s current optimism about Europe, the euro’s long-term prospects are fraught with considerable political and economic risk. At the heart of those risks is Europe’s record-high unemployment rate, which presently remains stuck at around 12 percent for the region as a whole and at as high as 27 percent for countries such as Greece and Spain. The European Central Bank itself is currently forecasting that, despite the gradual European recovery that it expects, European unemployment will not decline below 11.5 percent by 2016.
Since the onset of the European sovereign debt crisis in 2010, there has been a disturbing fragmentation of European politics. In France, Marine le Pen of the National Front is now ahead in the polls for the upcoming European parliamentary elections. Together with Geert Wilders of the Dutch far-right Freedom Party, she is campaigning on an anti-European platform. Meanwhile in Greece, the two centrist parties which commanded 70 percent of the vote in 2010 now command barely 30 percent of public support, while in Italy the populist Five-Star movement still polls 25 percent of the vote.
There is a real danger that high unemployment will continue to contribute to Europe’s political deterioration, as it has in recent years. And if that were to happen, Europe’s politic commitment to the euro could be sorely tested.
The main economic risk for the euro is that Europe’s high unemployment rate is now raising the real specter of Japanese-style deflation in Europe. Over the past year, Europe’s average inflation rate has already decelerated to 0.5 percent while the countries in the European periphery are now already either experiencing outright deflation or else are on the cusp of deflation. The trouble with deflation is that it not only constitutes a major headwind to the economic recovery but it highly complicates the task of restoring public debt sustainability in the highly indebted countries of the European economic periphery. Sadly, much like the Bank of Japan before it, the European Central Bank behaves as if it was oblivious to the deflation risk.
If the euro is unlikely to pose a serious challenge to the dollar, the Japanese yen is certainly not going to do so. After all, the Japanese government is drowning in debt and running an outsized budget deficit, while the country’s very poor demographics have led to a plunge in the domestic savings rate. There is every prospect that the Bank of Japan will have to step up its already massive quantitative easing program to avert a relapse into deflation, which will lead to a prolonged period of Japanese yen weakness. This is hardly the stuff of which a strong reserve currency is made.
In contrast to the Japanese yen, the Chinese renminbi is a currency that could eventually pose a real threat to the U.S. dollar, particularly if China were to continue to grow at anywhere near its recent rate. However, for that to happen, China would need to engage in serious financial reform aimed at making the currency convertible by lifting capital controls, developing its domestic bond market, cleaning up its shadow banking system, and making the financial system more transparent and more based on the rule of law. Judging by the experience of other countries, it would seem fanciful to think that these reforms could be successfully implemented in less than a decade.
Ever since the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in 1971, there has been no shortage of predictions that the dollar’s days as the world’s dominant reserve currency were numbered. Yet some 40 years on, the dollar’s position is yet to be seriously challenged. This is not so much because of the dollar’s inherent strengths as much as because of its rival currencies’ intrinsic weaknesses. For better or for worse, there is every reason to expect that this state of the world will continue in the decade ahead and that once again the long-run dollar pessimists will be proved wrong.
Desmond Lachman is a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.
FURTHER READING: Lachman also writes "Yellen's Wishful Thinking" and "Europe’s Outlook in 2014." Alan D. Viard cautions "When Setting Tax Policy, Don’t Forget About Long-Run Growth." Bret Swanson analyzes "Technology and the Growth Imperative."

20which currency is best for NRFC Empty Re: which currency is best for NRFC on Tue May 20, 2014 2:30 pm

Pethi

Pethi
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
If you cant decide which currency to buy...........or invest in CSE, I think better to buy a property...  Very Happy 

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