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Sri Lanka Equity Forum » Stock Market & Forum Help » Political and Socio-Economic Analysis » who will win-an analysis

who will win-an analysis

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1who will win-an analysis Empty who will win-an analysis on Tue Dec 16, 2014 5:38 pm

peiris


Stock Analytic
Stock Analytic
Based on the UVA pc election, there is a swing to the opposition of 5 percentage points in Badulla district and 10 percentage points in Moneragala district, when one compares with the 2010 presidential elections. If we take the average of 7.5 percentage swing to the opposition, MARA will get 50.35%(57.85polled in2010-7.5=50.35%) and still win the presidential election. However, this analysis excludes two important factors ;turnover of northern voters, in 2010 it was below 30%.in 2013 pc election we saw nearly 200,000more voters casting their votes. Will they do the same at the presidential elections? Other factor is muslim & up country tamils votes, will there be any significant change in the pattern from 2010?If, MY3 can garner these two to his benefit, he might still win. This analysis assumes that MY3 is as attractive as the war hero Gen Fonseka to a voter.

2who will win-an analysis Empty Re: who will win-an analysis on Tue Dec 16, 2014 6:34 pm

RPPA


Expert
Expert
@peiris wrote:Based on  the UVA pc election, there is a swing to the opposition of 5 percentage points in Badulla district and 10 percentage points in Moneragala district, when one compares with the 2010 presidential elections. If we take the average of 7.5 percentage swing to the opposition, MARA will get 50.35%(57.85polled in2010-7.5=50.35%) and still win the presidential election. However, this analysis excludes two important factors ;turnover of northern voters, in 2010 it was below 30%.in 2013 pc election we saw nearly 200,000more voters casting their votes. Will they do the same at the presidential elections? Other factor is muslim & up country tamils votes, will there be any significant change in the pattern from 2010?If, MY3 can garner these two to his benefit, he might still win. This analysis assumes that MY3 is as attractive as the war hero Gen Fonseka to a voter.

Yes i agree with you. This election's winner will be decided by TNA & SLMC.

3who will win-an analysis Empty Re: who will win-an analysis on Tue Dec 16, 2014 8:17 pm

worthiness


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
TNA & SLMC have become decisive factor on coming election to both MR & MS. Both are well trapped in seeking north votes because of aggressive TNA demands submitted. Any nod on such demand definitely deviate the consent from southern voters. SLMC power has weakened itself as it is divided to fractions & community has no reliance of SLMC leaders. So, it is not sure that majority will support to MR. JVP campaign launched separately, though talked against of MR, has not yet given better outlook in favor of MS. Nonetheless, with excessive authority, power & state resources MR still maintain an edge marginally over MS.

4who will win-an analysis Empty Re: who will win-an analysis on Tue Dec 16, 2014 11:27 pm

Nitro 7


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
SLMC does not equal to Muslim votes.

Over 70% Muslim votes will be against MR.

TNA may announce their stance around Jan 02nd

5who will win-an analysis Empty Re: who will win-an analysis on Wed Dec 17, 2014 4:52 am

nimantha80


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
You can all be wrong .main factor missing.The jumps.With few more this can get too easy as well

6who will win-an analysis Empty Re: who will win-an analysis on Wed Dec 17, 2014 1:33 pm

Dhehan

Dhehan
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
TNA : The northern voters have no faith on MR even TNA signed a MOU with present Govt.

SLMC : Over 95% of muslim community will not listen to SLMC even SLMC signed a MOU with present Govt. Specially the Aluthgama incident and BBS behavior are in the heart of muslim community.

In general 30% minority voters & 70% majority voters. Out of 30% minority, 25% will be against MR.

So the opposition requires only another 25% of majority votes out of 70% voters

It seems there is a easy win for opposition provided there will be a free and fair election

7who will win-an analysis Empty Re: who will win-an analysis on Wed Dec 17, 2014 2:45 pm

Ernie Tissera


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Yes Dehan is correct. Even SLmc supports MR, Muslims will not vote for MR because Authgama Incident & Bodubalasena. MS will get at least 80% of Muslim votes and 90% from North and 80% from Upcountry. Basically Northern, Eastern, Western, North Western, North Central & Sabaragamuwa Provinces will be for MS. Central will be 50/50. Southern 70/30 {MR & MS}. Uva 60/40 {MR & MS}. So MS has 6 provinces in his favor. Sure win for MS if that MACO dont get Athathiya.

8who will win-an analysis Empty Re: who will win-an analysis on Thu Dec 18, 2014 11:38 am

Dhehan

Dhehan
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

9who will win-an analysis Empty Re: who will win-an analysis on Thu Dec 18, 2014 3:49 pm

nimantha80


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Ernie Tissera wrote:Yes Dehan is correct. Even SLmc supports MR, Muslims will not vote for MR because Authgama Incident & Bodubalasena. MS will get at least 80% of Muslim votes and 90% from North and 80% from Upcountry. Basically Northern, Eastern, Western, North Western, North Central & Sabaragamuwa Provinces will be for MS. Central will be 50/50. Southern 70/30 {MR & MS}. Uva 60/40 {MR & MS}. So MS has 6 provinces in his favor. Sure win for MS if that MACO dont get Athathiya.
Uva and sothern less than you think for MR.less than last provincial concils

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