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Sri Lanka Equity Forum » Stock Market Talk » The oil Trend....

The oil Trend....

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1The oil Trend.... Empty The oil Trend.... on Thu Nov 26, 2015 4:37 am


Reuters: OPEC is determined to keep pumping oil vigorously despite the resulting financial strain even on the policy’s chief architect, Saudi Arabia, alarming weaker members who fear prices may slump further towards $20.

Any policy U-turn would be possible only if large producers outside the exporters’ group, notably Russia, were to join coordinated output cuts. While Moscow may consult OPEC oil ministers before their six-monthly meeting next week, the chances of it helping to halt the price slide remain slim.
“Unless non-OPEC say they are willing to help, I think there will be no change,” said a delegate from a major OPEC producer. “OPEC will not cut alone.”
When the exporters’ group last met in Vienna in June, Saudi oil minister Ali al-Naimi and those from other wealthy Gulf states could barely hide their jubilation.
OPEC’s historic decision in November 2014 – to pump more oil and defend its market share against surging rival suppliers – was working, they proclaimed as crude traded near $65 per barrel. Six months later, it has hit $45, down from as much as $115 in the middle of last year.
Now some member states are talking about a return to 20-dollar-oil, last seen at the turn of the millennium. They point to Iranian confidence that international sanctions on its economy will be lifted by the end of the year.
“Iran is announcing its production is going to increase as soon as they lift the sanctions and we need to do something. We (OPEC) cannot allow going into a war of prices. We need to stabilise the market,” Venezuelan Oil Minister Eulogio del Pino said on Sunday.
Asked how low prices could go next year if OPEC failed to change course, he said: “Mid-20s.”
Goldman Sachs said this year it saw a possibility of crude going even below $20 because of the huge global oversupply, a strong dollar and a slowing Chinese economy.
Most analysts doubt the Iranian sanctions will be lifted before next spring under its nuclear deal with world powers, but sooner or later its output will rise.
Already the collapse in prices has partly achieved OPEC’s goals. It has boosted global demand and curbed growth in supplies of US shale oil, which is relatively expensive to produce. Non-OPEC supply is also expected to fall for the first time in almost a decade next year as struggling producers cut back on capital spending.
But the world is still producing much more oil than it needs. Russian output has unexpectedly set new records and global stocks are ballooning.
Even the finances of Saudi Arabia, which led OPEC’s policy shift, are under more strain. Standard & Poor’s rating agency forecasts its budget deficit will rocket to 16% of GDP in 2015 from 1.5% in 2014.
Riyadh describes this year’s deficit as manageable. However, Bank of America Merrill Lynch said on Monday it believed the pressure was so high that the Saudi government would be forced either to devalue its dollar-pegged currency or cut oil output.
Such a cut would mean executing an about-face that many rivals would interpret as a strategy failure. Keeping the taps open while hoping for a longer-term payoff still appears to be the choice of Riyadh and its wealthy Gulf allies – Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait.

2The oil Trend.... Empty Re: The oil Trend.... on Thu Nov 26, 2015 8:48 am


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
With the lifting of sanction on Iran...yes Oil price will reduce drastically.

3The oil Trend.... Empty Re: The oil Trend.... on Thu Nov 26, 2015 9:10 am


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic

යුරෝපා තෙල් වෙළඳපොළ තුළ සටන් වැදීමට රුසියාවත් මිල පහළ දැමිමට සැරසේ

November 25, 2015 at 3:13 am | lanka C news

යුරෝපා ඛනිජ තෙල් වෙළඳපොළ තුළ තමන් සතුව පැවති කොටස ආරක්‍ෂා කරගැනීමේ පියවරක් වශයෙන් යූරල් ඛනිජ තෙල් සඳහා ලබාදෙන වට්ටම ඉහළ නැංවීමට රුසියාව සූදානම් වන බව වාර්තා වේ.
යුරෝපා ඛනිජ තෙල් වෙළඳපොළ ආක‍්‍රමණය කරමින් සිටින සවුදි අරාබිය ඇතුළු ඔපෙක් සංවිධානයේ රටවල් දිගින් දිගටම තෙල් මිල පහළ දැමීම මෙයට හේතුවයි.
ක්‍රෙම්ලින ආරංචි මාර්ග පවසා ඇත්තේ දිගු කලක් තිස්සේ රුසියානු ඛනිජ තෙල් වලට හැඩගැසුණු යුරෝපා පිරිපහදු සවුදි ඛනිජ තෙල් වලට මාරුවීම තාක්‍ෂණිකව අපහසු ක‍්‍රියාවක් වනු ඇති බවයි.
ඉරාකය විසින් ඩොලර් 33-34 පමණ වූ නිල තෙල් මිලට වඩා බෙහෙවින් අඩු මිලක්වූ ඩොලර් 30කට බොර තෙල් බැරලයක් අලෙවි කරමින් සිටින බව පසුගිය සතියේදී නිව්යෝක් ටයිම්ස් විසින් වාර්තා කරන ලදී.
තම නිෂ්පාදන සීමාව ඉක්මවා ඔපෙක් බලවතුන් ඛනිජ තෙල් නිෂ්පාදනය කළද ඒ සමග තරග වැදීමට රුසියාව සූදානම් බව ඔක්තෝබර් මසදී රුසියානු බලශක්ති අමාත්‍ය ඇලෙක්සැන්ඩර් නොවැක් විසින් පවසන ලදී.
ඔපෙක් සංවිධානය නොකඩවා 16වන මාසයටත් දිනකට බැරල් මිලියන 30ක සීමාව ඉක්මවමින් බොර තෙල් නිෂ්පාදනය කරමින් සිටින අතර රුසියාව පවසන්නේ පෝලන්තය වැනි නව වෙළඳපොළ ආරක්‍ෂා කරගැනීම සඳහා සවුදි අරාබිය මිල පහත දමමින් සිටින බවයි.
නිෂ්පාදන ප‍්‍රතිපත්තිය පිළිබඳව සාකච්ඡුා කිරීම සඳහා ඔපෙක් සංවිධානය දෙසැම්බර් 4වනදා රුස්වීමට නියමිතව ඇතැයි පැවසේ.

4The oil Trend.... Empty Re: The oil Trend.... on Fri Nov 27, 2015 11:20 am


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
OPEC expects Oil prize come down to $20/= which is currently at record low of $43/=. What do you think?

5The oil Trend.... Empty Re: The oil Trend.... on Fri Nov 27, 2015 1:52 pm


Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
We export our products to oil exporting countries.

If oil fell to 20s, due to inevitable no-money situation they will cut imports.
Our problems in Tea and Rubber will go to worst.

Too low too bad.

6The oil Trend.... Empty Re: The oil Trend.... on Fri Nov 27, 2015 2:30 pm


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
in my view oil price is being used as a political tool by the USA.

the US has told Saudi, Qatar to keep pumping and flood the market with crude oil , to make Russia to fail. that is way it is all taking place. in return the US will defend Saudi kings from any harm from their power.

this is a strange world.

we pick the pieces.

other wise

OPEC ( organization of petroleum exporting countries ) can very easily reduce the production of crude oil to stabilize the price in the market.

I praise the Russian resilient in facing this crises with all sanctions and surviving this period of difficulties with courage.

other factor is Iran.

US and Israel   do not want Iran doing well......that is why the present turmoil in the middle east.

this is world politics and not what we see on the face of it.

the good thing to us the general public is that we can save on the fuel cost if the price reduction is passed on to us by the companies ...

7The oil Trend.... Empty Re: The oil Trend.... on Fri Nov 27, 2015 2:38 pm


Another financial crisis is on the way. Some middle east countries on recession at the moment.

Teller said is said..

8The oil Trend.... Empty Re: The oil Trend.... on Fri Nov 27, 2015 4:59 pm


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Turkey imports 56% of its oil & gas requirement from Russia. After the Turkey Russian crisis, Oil Prices increased by US$1. Indeed, one school of thought holds that Russia is partly in Syria in order to block any plans for pipelines to bring Middle Eastern gas from the likes of Qatar into Europe via Turkey. Putin's action will have a considerable short term impact on the oil prices.

9The oil Trend.... Empty Re: The oil Trend.... on Fri Nov 27, 2015 5:55 pm


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Below 35$ is a DAY DREAMING....

10The oil Trend.... Empty Re: The oil Trend.... on Fri Nov 27, 2015 8:20 pm


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
If Iran sanctions are lifted soon, SL can buy oil from Iran at lowest cost. It helps to operate Sapugaskande site in full capacity. So CPC will be able to lower fuel prices. It will decrease inflation considerably in the future resulting interest rate keeping the same or lower. Is it correct?

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