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Sri Lanka Equity Forum » Stock Market Talk » Dialog Axiata PLC - Towards 10Bn profit mark again

Dialog Axiata PLC - Towards 10Bn profit mark again

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Thushara Ayya

Thushara Ayya
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
See.....

charith666lk


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@Thushara Ayya wrote:See.....
Reason?

EquityChamp

EquityChamp
Moderator
Moderator
The Q1 numbers and the outlook for 2016 is going to be better than 2015. You can expect the price will adjust to 2015 beginning level very soon. Already it has passed the January 2016 opening price.

I will publish my forecast for 2016 shortly.

Teller

Teller
Moderator
Moderator
Possible to dome Negative impact due to vat increasement and adjustment if taxes

chamil1


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
When foreign buying starts this will move up.

Less linked to performance.

Agree on the tax matter mentioned by Teller as well as exchange rate impact on loans taken.

Thushara Ayya

Thushara Ayya
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@EquityChamp wrote:The Q1 numbers and the outlook for 2016 is going to be better than 2015. You can expect the price will adjust to 2015 beginning level very soon. Already it has passed the January 2016 opening price.

I will publish my forecast for 2016 shortly.

Yes EC, this was in 14/= level those days. This down is due to the Tax imposed by the new govt, can you remember? This should be adjusted to 14 level again. And 2016 is better than 2015 figures...

Chinwi

Chinwi
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
When we forecast for 2016 , should we consider the impact of heavy VAT imposed recently ?

Sometimes, it will not only reduce some amounts near bottomline but affect top lines also.
When people see increasing of call charges they may control their spending by reducing call time.
We can study about this phenomena in coming months. Whether the effect is negligible or significant w.r.t. past performances.

For Year ending 31Dec 2015, EPS was 0.64. NAVPS is 5.81.

EquityChamp

EquityChamp
Moderator
Moderator
To give you a hint
Revenue will be impated by the additional call charges to end consumer but this is for PrP customers mainly
Then you need to take into consideration the benefit they are going to get with the qualification of claiming the input taxes which they couldn't do due to VAT exemption. Also their depreciation charges will going to be low as well due to the same reason.
In the final context the profitability won't be impacted as similar to what ever the revenue loss.
Now I have given you a hint so can you guys think of the numbers Very Happy:D:D

EquityChamp

EquityChamp
Moderator
Moderator
As said here you can find my forecast for Q1. I'll keep Q2-Q4 till they publish Q1.
Rs mnQ4 14Q1 15Q2 15Q3 15Q4 15Q1 16 F
Revenue  17,278   17,331   17,745   18,816   20,039    20,796
Revenue growth 0.3%2.4%6.0%6.5%3.8%
PAT1478198219076796202495
PAT margin8.6%11.4%10.7%3.6%3.1%12.0%
This year their PAT will be driven by increase in revenue and decrease in foreign exchange losses. So far in 2016 LKR has depreciated only by0.6 rupees against doller

EquityChamp

EquityChamp
Moderator
Moderator
Can be a sleeping giant. The daily technical charts are still neutral. The stock was trading @ 14 levels year earlier. One stock expected to regain the lost ground together with JKH & COMB within the next couple of quarters.

EquityChamp

EquityChamp
Moderator
Moderator
For your reference. The below is my forecast of Dial for the next two quarters and the FY 16.
Rs MnQ1 15Q2 15Q3 15Q4 15Q1 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 16FY 15 AFY 16 FYoY
Revenue  17,331   17,745   18,816   20,039   21,157   21,065   22,118   22,339   73,931   86,680 17%
Growth0.3%2.4%6.0%6.5%5.6%-0.4%5.0%1.0%   
PAT    1,982     1,907        679        620     2,666     2,283     2,322     2,011     5,188     9,282 79%
PAT Margin11.4%10.7%3.6%3.1%12.6%10.8%10.5%9.0%   
Their EPS is projected to grow by 79% YoY to reach Rs1.14. Also I am projecting a YoY revenue growth of 17% amidst the impact of introducing VAT on telecom services.

At the CMP of 11/40 the stock is trading at a forward PE of 10.0x. This is a stock normally trading around 15x-18x PE with a premium to market PE and amazingly it is now trading at a discount to the market. Since the market was on a long depression it is bound to jump up any moment sooner than later. And when that happens you will see DIAL is trading above Rs17/-. Which means this stock is trading at a 50% discount to its true value.

I am rating DIAL as an AAA+ investment grade stock for your portfolios.

Thanks

EquityChamp

EquityChamp
Moderator
Moderator
Hi Friends,
Now what do you think on my estimate for Q3. Expectation was 2.3Bn and they have release 2.8Bn. What a stock this has been but still today the share dropped by 10 cents.

Are there anyone to share similar forecasted earnings about stocks in this forum. If we can have couple of those here then the discussions will be much more productive.

Thanks

Bullrunner7

Bullrunner7
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Hi EC 
Where did you learn to forecast earnings ? 
Smile

EquityChamp

EquityChamp
Moderator
Moderator
@Bullrunner7 wrote:Hi EC 
Where did you learn to forecast earnings ? 
Smile
From Warren Buffet Very Happy

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