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Sri Lanka Equity Forum » Stock Market Talk » Three Acre Farms PLC - A stock with growing profitability

Three Acre Farms PLC - A stock with growing profitability

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EquityChamp

EquityChamp
Moderator
Moderator
First topic message reminder :

Principle Business Activities
Selective breeding, hatching and sale of commercial DOCs, grandparent farm operations, import grandparent DOCs, advance technology breeding and commercial broiler farming.

Industry Outlook
The country has seen a rapid expansion in the production of poultry related products on the back of expensive alternative of Fish and the other substitutes of meet such as pork and beef. The cheap nature of poultry products have attracted very high demand and thereby increased the suppliers. This trend has created growing demand for day old chicks; the main product of TAFL.

Financial Performance
The company has experienced continued growth in revenue every quarter recording a compounded quarterly revenue growth of 8.6% since Q4 2014. Its PAT margin has improved from 11.6% in Q4 14 to 33.2% in Q1 16 due to the efforts in increased productivity and decline in key raw material cost continuously.
Rs mnQ4 14Q1 15Q2 15Q3 15Q4 15Q1 16
Revenue414441493558598624
Revenue growth 6.5%11.8%13.2%7.2%4.3%
PAT4879107161203207
PAT margin11.6%17.9%21.7%28.9%33.9%33.2%
The company generates a substantial ROE of 45% in Q1 16 with a 4 quarter trailing EPS of Rs 28.9.

Valuation
An ROE of 45% in an any industry will be a tremendous achievement. At the CMP of Rs125.50 the stock is trading at a 4Q trailing PE of 4.3x. The current prices reflects a huge intrinsic value hence you are advised to collect the stock and hold in the medium term.

Thanks


EquityChamp


Moderator
Moderator
As I said without noticing to any one of you TAFL's support level has increased to around 150/- within two months time. Very good. We haven't see much of overall market rally during this period but TAFL is showing a strong sustained trend.
If we look at the charts then we could see a trend reversal happened at around Rs148/-. The reliability of the reversal still at medium level because it is yet to see a three continuous outside ups. Yet the RSI level of 64 and the much better next quarterly report expectation can push the newly establish support level towards 165/-170/- during the next one month or so, so better to keep study the pattern of the stocks next movement.
Thanks

EquityChamp


Moderator
Moderator
A summarized PAT forecast for 2016 FY is given below.

Q1 16 - Rs 207Mn
Q2 16 - Rs 146Mn
Q3 16 - Rs210Mn
Q4 16 - Rs225Mn

EPS for 2016 (E) Rs 33.5
PE @ 145 - 4.3x

Expecting the Q3 report by this Friday.

Thanks

EquityChamp


Moderator
Moderator
TAFL Q3 actual of 181 Vs my target of 210. The negative gap is due to the shortfall in revenue. Anyway still good performance.

DANIDU


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Base on EC's strong recommendation, I bought some TAFL, Thank you for that. Can it be next good share like NEST, CCS?

I remember your Recommendation on CCS few month ago and holding it up to now for L/T.  Very Happy

EquityChamp


Moderator
Moderator
I believe on my numbers brother. The thing is that these shares can be available to sell at unbelievable prices due to the things happening aroundd us.

ruwan326

ruwan326
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@EquityChamp wrote:I believe on my numbers brother. The thing is that these shares can be available to sell at unbelievable prices due to the things happening aroundd us.
Panic sellers.... price does not matter Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy
People who see crocodiles in water pots lol!

EquityChamp

EquityChamp
Moderator
Moderator
TAFL yet to deliver the value for investors. Yet patient investors should hold on to the stock.

reyaz

reyaz
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Sri Lanka is an island where true magic happens. The spirits and the smiles in people in this nation is brought to you by traditions. The main source of income is through agriculture. Poultry farming also generates income and so does dairy products. Companies that should come to your mind is bfl, tafl, gran, llmp and plantation companies

reyaz

reyaz
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
By viewing the previous post you should get the feeling that we don't need a government to improve businesses. Ot is the Entrepreneurs and investors who make or break the financial market. NOT THE STINKY CLEAN SUIT EMPTY POCKET BANKS! affraid

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