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Sri Lanka Equity Forum » Stock Market Talk » Vallibel Finance PLC - A stock with long time valuation mismatch

Vallibel Finance PLC - A stock with long time valuation mismatch

Go down  Message [Page 1 of 1]

EquityChamp

EquityChamp
Moderator
Moderator
Based on recent quarterly results and the past 3 yr results I have performed a detailed analysis of this stock and projected the next two years results. Below you can see the summary of the analysis.
Mn2012/132013/142014/152015/162016/17 (F)2017/18 (F)
Interest income        1,792       2,452            2,800            3,242            4,269            5,123
Interest Yield 27.7%24.9%20.9%  
PAT           295           304                373                513                683                820
PAT margin16%12%13%16%  
Customer deposits        6,268       9,300          12,162          14,804          17,765          20,430
Loans and advances        7,784       9,939          12,568          18,480          22,176          26,611
ROE32%26%25%27%  
ROME25%25%20%23%  
Price (Rs)          28.3         29.7              45.0              53.7               72.3               86.8
EPS (Rs)            7.1            7.3                 9.0              12.3               16.4               19.7
PER4.04.15.04.34.44.4
I estimate the loan book to grow at 20% pa and customer deposits to grow by 20% in 16/17 and a further 15% in 17/18. Also I assume they will maintain the interest yield of 21% as same as 15/16 FY. It will generate an EPS of close to Rs20 by 17/18 FY.
But my main concern is the gap between ROE and ROME has been very slim. According to my belief a company having ROE of in excess of 25% should have a ROME of below 10%. This valuation mishap has happened due to the historically prevailed lower PE ratio. During the past 4 year period the stock's closing PER has been in the range of 4-5. I don't know why this has happened. Any way by applying the average PE of 4.4x the stock could value at Rs 87/- based on 17/18 earnings.

Thanks

SLFINANCEWATCH

SLFINANCEWATCH
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Spot on Equitychamp, VFIN value more than 100% at this moment.I said this Few months ago when VFIN Trading at 50.00.

Richie


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
EPS over 13 , PE still less than 5, NAV nearly 48 ... Growing aggressive well managed company with consistently good results having the potential to be a leading player under DP .... they will for a split

Richie


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
EPS over 13 , PE still less than 5, NAV nearly 48 ... Growing aggressive well managed company with consistently good results having the potential to be a leading player under DP .... they will for a split

EquityChamp

EquityChamp
Moderator
Moderator
As I highlighted today net gain was only 20 cents. Having a great result. Why this stock is not trading beyond the PE of 4-5. Why can't it be 7 or 8? Question

troy

troy
Moderator
Moderator
This stock needs a small push... or a catalyst to move on from here. Something like an announcement for a split or a right issue, things will be changed. Until then, this is in collection mode... 

More the bull trend delayed for this stock, more the collection goes on. I am thinking of selling my JKH Ws and buying more of VFIN. Try to rearrange my portfolio with minimizing risks carried by warrants.

reader


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
No risk at all at current price level. No dough one day it will compensate to your time and money  Smile

crnsuranjith


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
I was expected a price movement after this good result but what happen ? some ppls not buying value shares, they all go behind crap shares to make quick bug. 

However, when ppls are realizing the good one (like VFIN) they will buy at high that time. 

Very good news to come very soon.

SLFINANCEWATCH

SLFINANCEWATCH
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
What is the good news crnsuranjith?

venura


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
They hv announed a dividend of 2.50

kumarweerarathne

kumarweerarathne
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
But no price movement today stagnated below 67.. but it should trade above 80+.

venura


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
yes due to da current mkt situation none of da share s going up. Even lfin announced 7.50 div,acl announced share split.but all r on da same level

kumarweerarathne

kumarweerarathne
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Hmm yes.. Im collecting ACL these days.. A value gem.:-)

EquityChamp

EquityChamp
Moderator
Moderator
This stock is suffering from 'LOW PE MANIA'. Very Happy

EquityChamp

EquityChamp
Moderator
Moderator
Q1 16/17 results shows that achieving a PAT of 683mn in this year is almost certain. Q1 earnings grew by 36% YoY. Therefore it can hit the target price of 72/30 in medium term. No worries.

Harry82

Harry82
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Compaired with AFSL ,

VFIN target price is ???

SLFINANCEWATCH

SLFINANCEWATCH
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Collect it as much as you can..
For the future...within 06 Months VFIN will pass 85.00 for sure.

worthiness


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Shattering hopes of many, VFIN has been in somber for some time recording low volumes in trading. Perhaps the volume of leasing business would have plunged due to rising interest rates. It was gone to Rs.71 highest few months ago. Its customer base is increasing due to high reliability placed on VFIN comparing to the rest. Overall market trading is really lacking brightness. Some view of VFIN would close up to Rs.75 level within a short time.

However, a slight indication of budget proposals that invoke investors enthusiasm towards capital market would be an assist to recuperate unexciting market.

worthiness


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@EC
From previous year, 2016/2017(F) interest income is risen from 15.8% to 31.7% almost doubled. But PAT(F) is dropped from 37.5% to 33.1%. This may happen lowered net fee & commission income, higher net losses from trading, slump of other operating income & increasing of operating expenses including a substantial drop of other income. Also, I believe that impairment charges for loans & other losses may be lower. Possibly forecast numbers taken into consideration may be conservative. If economic direction is on right path with added growth I guess VFIN may end up with higher EPS. This is just my thinking only. Let us see the reaction from investors after the budget & uncleaned bond scam.

SLFINANCEWATCH

SLFINANCEWATCH
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Still collecting guys...
I feel something special on VFIN this time...

SLFINANCEWATCH

SLFINANCEWATCH
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
My Target EPS for Sept quarter is 18.00+ ( Annualized ).

December Quarter : 18.00+ ( Annualized )
March Quarter : 20.00+ ( Annualized )

2016 - 2017 F/Year : 17.00+ ( This is due to low EPS " 12.57 " in First Quarter "

Will see how my analysis is..
Cheers..

SLFINANCEWATCH

SLFINANCEWATCH
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@SLFINANCEWATCH wrote:My Target EPS for Sept quarter is 18.00+ ( Annualized ).

December Quarter : 18.00+ ( Annualized )
March Quarter : 20.00+ ( Annualized )

2016 - 2017 F/Year : 17.00+ ( This is due to low EPS " 12.57 " in First Quarter "

Will see how my analysis is..
Cheers..

Smile Smile Smile

uf1991


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic

SLFINANCEWATCH

SLFINANCEWATCH
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Impressive , much much better than expected.

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