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Sri Lanka Equity Forum » Stock Market Talk » Nation Lanka Finance PLC - Growing with stability

Nation Lanka Finance PLC - Growing with stability

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EquityChamp

EquityChamp
Moderator
Moderator
First topic message reminder :

Nation Lanka, hammered with impairments and deposit withdrawals following Golden key saga, is recovering slowly yet steadily. Their new business model has earned them a fantastic interest yield with a huge loan book growth. As some of you may aware now Nation Lanka has entered into the lucrative micro finance business and join hands with COCR, BIL and LOFC.

Just a summary of key financials with a conservative estimate for FY 2016/17 is given below.
Rs mn2014/15 A2015/16 A2016/17 F
Loans & Advances43895608          7,080
Growth in loans & advances64%28%26%
Interest income11652087          2,780
Growth in interest income29%79%33%
Interest yield33%42%44%
NPAT-429162              222
According to the above table you may seen the double digit growth in loans and advances with an interest yield of over 40%, a mark achieved by none other than BLI. You may recall my thread on benchmarking finance sector stocks where I showed BLI earning an interest yield of over 48% where as majority of other finance companies just generate a yield around 20%-25%. So in that sense you can get an idea as to how Nation Lanka will do in the future.

The above PAT was estimated based on very conservative assumptions of loan book growth and PAT margins yet they can generate an EPS of 30 cents for the next financial year which translates to a PE of 6x at the closing price of Rs1.8 but still trading at a discount to the industry PE benchmark. NAV tyrned to positive 1 in 15/16 from a negative 1 in 14/15.

So within 2 to 3  years this company generating a profit in excess of half a billion so that the price should reach Rs5/- which means a lucrative medium term investment for you.

Do your own analysis also to take an informed decision.

Thanks


Chinwi


Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
I was exited about this share but now stay watching because they have reduced asset value of 1 rupee reported earlier to 59 cents after recalculating.

Eugine Fernando


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@Chinwi wrote:I was exited about this share but now stay watching because they have reduced asset value of 1 rupee reported earlier to 59 cents after recalculating.
collection is going on at 1/90, will have a run very soon.....

Chinwi


Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
@Eugine Fernando wrote:
@Chinwi wrote:I was exited about this share but now stay watching because they have reduced asset value of 1 rupee reported earlier to 59 cents after recalculating.
collection is going on at 1/90, will have a run very soon.....[/quote ]

I do not do what crowd  do;  take investment decisions  on fundamentals for long term gain .

I have some xxx,xxx SFL and currently placed big orders at much lower levels. Will come again after few months to buy higher even @ 2.30-2.50 only if fundamentals show long term growth.

EquityChamp


Moderator
Moderator
Looks at CSF very carefully. Without noticing by anyone I can say CSF is going to upgrade its support level to Rs2/-. I feel strongly.

TARGET


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@Chinwi wrote:
@Eugine Fernando wrote:
@Chinwi wrote:I was exited about this share but now stay watching because they have reduced asset value of 1 rupee reported earlier to 59 cents after recalculating.
collection is going on at 1/90, will have a run very soon.....[/quote ]

I do not do what crowd  do;  take investment decisions  on fundamentals for long term gain .

I have some xxx,xxx SFL and currently placed big orders at much lower levels. Will come again after few months to buy higher even @ 2.30-2.50 only if fundamentals show long term growth.
So you hv collected sfl and now you should in profit? What the reason you to collect sfl at that time?

Chinwi

Chinwi
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
By reading and comparing assets, income and liabilities of few quarters I saw ,
It has almost overcome the troubles and stepping into growth pace.
But when they re corrected the assets value I felt dislike and stopped buying. Now watching their next positioning - not in stock market but in books.

My current position is, I disposed half and took bold and risky decision to buy more PCHH. Even today I bought @ 1.70 . , also some PINS +.
Shares I buy these days are for 2-3 year term. All other shares I try to convert to cash and take out . Need money to develop my TJC mango plantation. Farm Land developing need lot of money than you think , struck for 4-5 years at least without much income.

Wild boar , Porcupine , Monkey, peacock attacks destroy huge amount of food grown by farmers more than ever before. Food prices , mainly fruit prices will go to very high levels in future. Current drought destroyed many fruit and coconut plants all over the dry zone.

Teller

Teller
Moderator
Moderator
CSF entering 1.50 is not bad.

stockboy


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
csf will not go below 1.8

lal62

lal62
Stock Analytic
Stock Analytic
CSF Has medium to long term potential . ( Even short term Is possible, depends on the timing ) I bought the shares low now it is green but I am not  planning to sell.It is difficult to to enter a RUN in early stages but if you have managed to do so you better hold on to it till the right time. the target I have set is long term, nevertheless I will keep monitoring ... This is CSE ....who knows..

This is only my personal opinion ,not a recommendation to buy

EquityChamp

EquityChamp
Moderator
Moderator
Trust this stock has a value in the mid to longer term. Buying when others are not interesting will be a low-risk strategy.

lal62

lal62
Stock Analytic
Stock Analytic
@EquityChamp wrote:Trust this stock has a value in the mid to longer term. Buying when others are not interesting will be a low-risk strategy.

I totally agree with EC.It is always a better option to think like an investor and act like one.  In this way we dont end up blaming   other people for manipulation for the mistakes   
of our own. TJL is also a good one if we can grab it little low  in this bear condition despite the positive demand for TJL at the moment.

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