Maharaja's Advice

Maharaja wrote:Members,

ASI is getting ready to hit 5800. This time it will break 5800 mark and enter 5700 territory.
Be ready for impact. I will update new market analysis by Oct.

Thankyou,
Maharaja

Maharaja wrote:Members,

ASI is getting ready to hit 5800. This time it will break 5800 mark and enter 5700 territory.
Be ready for impact. I will update new market analysis by Oct.

Thankyou,
Maharaja

Maharaja wrote:

Maharaja wrote:Members,

ASI is getting ready to hit 5800. This time it will break 5800 mark and enter 5700 territory.
Be ready for impact. I will update new market analysis by Oct.

Thankyou,
Maharaja

Prediction proved. The ppl who shouted and laughed at Maharaja is missing now. Truth will always win.

Maharaja

Underlying Factors affecting the Stock Market

1.Economic growth. Higher economic growth or better prospects for growth will help firms be more profitable because there will be more demand for goods and services. This will help boost company dividends and therefore share prices.

2.Interest rates. Lower interest rates can make shares more attractive for two reasons. Lower interest rates help boost economic growth making firms more profitable. Also, lower interest rates make shares relatively more attractive than saving money in a bank or holding bonds. If bond yields fall, it may encourage investors to switch into shares which give a relatively better dividend.

3.Stability. Stock markets dislike shocks that could threaten economic stability and future growth. Therefore, they will tend to fall on news of terrorist attacks or spikes in the price of oil. They will also dislike political instability which may make it difficult to pursue strong economic policies.

4.Confidence and expectations. A key factor is the mood of investors. If they receive economic news that gives optimism then they are more likely to buy shares. If they receive bad news they will sell. This is why in the depth of a recession, stock markets can start to rise. Investors are always trying to predict the future. Therefore if they feel the worst is over – the stock market can rally – even when economic fundamentals remain poor.

5.Bandwagon effect. At times the stock market seems to over-react to certain events. For example, in 1987, relatively little bad news caused the stock market to fall 25%. Even today it remains a little mystery why the stock market fell so much – there was no economic problem. In fact, the stock market soon recovered it’s lost ground. Part of the issue is that people follow the mood. When prices fall, people may feel the need to follow suit and get out of the market.

6.Related markets. Often investors have choices. For example, rather than investing in stock market, they could buy government bonds or commodities. If investors feel government bonds are overpriced and likely to fall, then the stock market can benefit as people move into shares.

7.Price to earnings ratios. Some investors and economists, such as Robert Shiller feel the best guide to the long-term performance of shares is their price to earnings ratios. If share prices rise significantly above historical averages, then this is a sign that shares are becoming overvalued and are due a correction at some point in the future.

Predictions not in the list Maharaja  

Maharaja wrote:

Maharaja wrote:Members,

ASI is getting ready to hit 5800. This time it will break 5800 mark and enter 5700 territory.
Be ready for impact. I will update new market analysis by Oct.

Thankyou,
Maharaja

Prediction proved. The ppl who shouted and laughed at Maharaja is missing now. Truth will always win.
Maharaja

samaritan wrote:So Ruwan, Following Dr.Radhika's (sister of CB Governor Indrajit Coomaraswamy) appointment as Independent Non-Executive Director of JKH from 01st October, the EPF funds are going to flow into JKH???

Today's foreign purchase of JKH amounted to 120,000 shares @ 132/30.

DS Wijesinghe wrote:

Maharaja wrote:

Maharaja wrote:Members,

ASI is getting ready to hit 5800. This time it will break 5800 mark and enter 5700 territory.
Be ready for impact. I will update new market analysis by Oct.

Thankyou,
Maharaja

Prediction proved. The ppl who shouted and laughed at Maharaja is missing now. Truth will always win.
Maharaja

yes you have been proved right and correct there is no doubt about that

BUT it would be more beneficial to forum members if you could share your views on individual stocks

1. Will EPF go and dump EPF money to buy JKH @ current market levels to bail out foreign investors who want to exit Sri Lanka?

2. COMB, if you are to buy this stock today how much would you be willing to pay for a share? Your honest opinion pls

3. Are GRAN, Aitken Spence, HNBA, Union Assurance, SAMP in your watch list? If so how have you analysed them?

DS Wijesinghe wrote:

Maharaja wrote:

Maharaja wrote:Members,

ASI is getting ready to hit 5800. This time it will break 5800 mark and enter 5700 territory.
Be ready for impact. I will update new market analysis by Oct.

Thankyou,
Maharaja

Prediction proved. The ppl who shouted and laughed at Maharaja is missing now. Truth will always win.
Maharaja

yes you have been proved right and correct there is no doubt about that

BUT it would be more beneficial to forum members if you could share your views on individual stocks

1. Will EPF go and dump EPF money to buy JKH @ current market levels to bail out foreign investors who want to exit Sri Lanka?

2. COMB, if you are to buy this stock today how much would you be willing to pay for a share? Your honest opinion pls

3. Are GRAN, Aitken Spence, HNBA, Union Assurance, SAMP in your watch list? If so how have you analysed them?

Maharaja wrote:

DS Wijesinghe wrote:

Maharaja wrote:

Maharaja wrote:Members,

ASI is getting ready to hit 5800. This time it will break 5800 mark and enter 5700 territory.
Be ready for impact. I will update new market analysis by Oct.

Thankyou,
Maharaja

Prediction proved. The ppl who shouted and laughed at Maharaja is missing now. Truth will always win.
Maharaja

yes you have been proved right and correct there is no doubt about that

BUT it would be more beneficial to forum members if you could share your views on individual stocks

1. Will EPF go and dump EPF money to buy JKH @ current market levels to bail out foreign investors who want to exit Sri Lanka?

2. COMB, if you are to buy this stock today how much would you be willing to pay for a share? Your honest opinion pls

3. Are GRAN, Aitken Spence, HNBA, Union Assurance, SAMP in your watch list? If so how have you analysed them?

Maharaja says not to buy any shares at this time. Not JKH, SAMP or COMB. Maharaja sold whole portfolio many months ago.
And will not buy until good economic condition arrive.

ASI is experiencing technical bounce after entering 5700 level. It will turn to 5700 area soon.

Maharaja advises;

1. Do not try trading opportunities. Any minute the short term uptrends will turn downwards. 

2. Do not buy value stocks still. Value stocks will fall further !

3. Do not believe ASI color and invest. Look at the country's situation, business outlook of whole country and think twice.

Maharaja believe only fundamentals. In SL fundamentals are getting worse every day. When economic fundamentals are getting worse, a share market will fall.

Don't think politicians will do good to economy. Every politician destroyed the economy. Maharaja thought this government will be different. Unfortunately its same story repeating. Even if Mahinda comes again economy is very hard to turn. 
All previous and current politicians are the reason for this crisis in economy. From high interest loans, useless projects, central bank robbery, bribery asking from investors and stopping FDIs, etc.  All politicians robbed our country and they still continue.

Only solution is : Reduce imports. Increase exports
Then we will see SL grow and CSE perform.

Otherwise our country will become like Greece/Somalia guaranteed. 

What is best solution as investor?

1. Sell full portfolio and invest in FD. You cannot get FD return at CSE. 

Others who still invest and expect returns and buy VALUE STOCKS (fundamentals strong) today will have below results;

1. 6-12 months term - LOSS
2. 12-15 months term -LOSS 80%/ marginal profit 20%
3. 24 months term - Profit 100% 

Do not apply my predictions to special cases like acquisitions or sale of company subsidiaries. My analysis is based to overall market indexes.

yours sincerely,
Maharaja

Maharaja wrote:When market is crashing and everyone wants to sell, these fools decide to waste EPF tax payer money and buy a failing share market. This is 100% wrong.

Most members in the forum want the EPF to enter because they want to make profit. Did you think about the profit or loss and risk for EPF fund ? 

1. EPF cannot buy even 50% of the blue chips foreigners will sell off. Because of guidelines in use for the fund.

2. Think EPF buys all selling that comes from all sectors. (As some members here say)
Afterwards who is going to buy the shares EPF collected ? 
Afterwards why CSE turns bullish ?

So do not be fools and go behind EPF fund to save this failing market.
Go behind economic data, because market is a reflection of economy. 
Our growth rates falling, interest rates rising, exchange rate flying !!


I will update support levels after budget proposal ! 


Maharaja.

sanjulanka wrote: ohoma yan

Maharaja wrote:

DS Wijesinghe wrote:

Maharaja wrote:

Maharaja wrote:Members,

ASI is getting ready to hit 5800. This time it will break 5800 mark and enter 5700 territory.
Be ready for impact. I will update new market analysis by Oct.

Thankyou,
Maharaja

Prediction proved. The ppl who shouted and laughed at Maharaja is missing now. Truth will always win.
Maharaja

yes you have been proved right and correct there is no doubt about that

BUT it would be more beneficial to forum members if you could share your views on individual stocks

1. Will EPF go and dump EPF money to buy JKH @ current market levels to bail out foreign investors who want to exit Sri Lanka?

2. COMB, if you are to buy this stock today how much would you be willing to pay for a share? Your honest opinion pls

3. Are GRAN, Aitken Spence, HNBA, Union Assurance, SAMP in your watch list? If so how have you analysed them?

Maharaja says not to buy any shares at this time. Not JKH, SAMP or COMB. Maharaja sold whole portfolio many months ago.
And will not buy until good economic condition arrive.

ASI is experiencing technical bounce after entering 5700 level. It will turn to 5700 area soon.

Maharaja advises;

1. Do not try trading opportunities. Any minute the short term uptrends will turn downwards. 

2. Do not buy value stocks still. Value stocks will fall further !

3. Do not believe ASI color and invest. Look at the country's situation, business outlook of whole country and think twice.

Maharaja believe only fundamentals. In SL fundamentals are getting worse every day. When economic fundamentals are getting worse, a share market will fall.

Don't think politicians will do good to economy. Every politician destroyed the economy. Maharaja thought this government will be different. Unfortunately its same story repeating. Even if Mahinda comes again economy is very hard to turn. 
All previous and current politicians are the reason for this crisis in economy. From high interest loans, useless projects, central bank robbery, bribery asking from investors and stopping FDIs, etc.  All politicians robbed our country and they still continue.

Only solution is : Reduce imports. Increase exports
Then we will see SL grow and CSE perform.

Otherwise our country will become like Greece/Somalia guaranteed. 

What is best solution as investor?

1. Sell full portfolio and invest in FD. You cannot get FD return at CSE. 

Others who still invest and expect returns and buy VALUE STOCKS (fundamentals strong) today will have below results;

1. 6-12 months term - LOSS
2. 12-15 months term -LOSS 80%/ marginal profit 20%
3. 24 months term - Profit 100% 

Do not apply my predictions to special cases like acquisitions or sale of company subsidiaries. My analysis is based to overall market indexes.

yours sincerely,
Maharaja

DS Wijesinghe wrote:

Maharaja wrote:

DS Wijesinghe wrote:

Maharaja wrote:

Maharaja wrote:Members,

ASI is getting ready to hit 5800. This time it will break 5800 mark and enter 5700 territory.
Be ready for impact. I will update new market analysis by Oct.

Thankyou,
Maharaja

Prediction proved. The ppl who shouted and laughed at Maharaja is missing now. Truth will always win.
Maharaja

yes you have been proved right and correct there is no doubt about that

BUT it would be more beneficial to forum members if you could share your views on individual stocks

1. Will EPF go and dump EPF money to buy JKH @ current market levels to bail out foreign investors who want to exit Sri Lanka?

2. COMB, if you are to buy this stock today how much would you be willing to pay for a share? Your honest opinion pls

3. Are GRAN, Aitken Spence, HNBA, Union Assurance, SAMP in your watch list? If so how have you analysed them?

Maharaja says not to buy any shares at this time. Not JKH, SAMP or COMB. Maharaja sold whole portfolio many months ago.
And will not buy until good economic condition arrive.

ASI is experiencing technical bounce after entering 5700 level. It will turn to 5700 area soon.

Maharaja advises;

1. Do not try trading opportunities. Any minute the short term uptrends will turn downwards. 

2. Do not buy value stocks still. Value stocks will fall further !

3. Do not believe ASI color and invest. Look at the country's situation, business outlook of whole country and think twice.

Maharaja believe only fundamentals. In SL fundamentals are getting worse every day. When economic fundamentals are getting worse, a share market will fall.

Don't think politicians will do good to economy. Every politician destroyed the economy. Maharaja thought this government will be different. Unfortunately its same story repeating. Even if Mahinda comes again economy is very hard to turn. 
All previous and current politicians are the reason for this crisis in economy. From high interest loans, useless projects, central bank robbery, bribery asking from investors and stopping FDIs, etc.  All politicians robbed our country and they still continue.

Only solution is : Reduce imports. Increase exports
Then we will see SL grow and CSE perform.

Otherwise our country will become like Greece/Somalia guaranteed. 

What is best solution as investor?

1. Sell full portfolio and invest in FD. You cannot get FD return at CSE. 

Others who still invest and expect returns and buy VALUE STOCKS (fundamentals strong) today will have below results;

1. 6-12 months term - LOSS
2. 12-15 months term -LOSS 80%/ marginal profit 20%
3. 24 months term - Profit 100% 

Do not apply my predictions to special cases like acquisitions or sale of company subsidiaries. My analysis is based to overall market indexes.

yours sincerely,
Maharaja

Thanks Maharaja for your response.  I am in agreement with you that mot probably the market will continue to slide till 2020. Or perhaps thereafter even if a new govt is formed. 

By end Dec 2018, in less than another 3 months, it will mark 4 years of bear stock market coinciding the 4th disastrous anniversary of this govt. So if the market continue to slide till 2020 that means a 6 year bear market for CSE investors

However I believe that your view not to invest in any stock until 2020 is fundamentally flawed.

Benjamin Graham the investment guru of Warren Buffet, earned a compounded annual rate of return over 20% during the great the great economic depression of World War 2. That economic depression started in 1932 and lasted till 1949. He figured out that stock market behaviours are very emotional with emotions fluctuating between greed and fear. And when the market gets in to the fear mode, market fluctuate down and stock prices of great companies with sound future earning potential even during periods of economic recession, with excellent Management teams & durable competitive advantages go crashing down.

If you are a smart investor you need to recognise there will be periodic economic events. Investors need to be patient and wait for such events to come along. These events give the investors the opportunity to buy great companies with good earning potential, at super bargain prices

This is exactly the theory adopted by Graham's best student Warren Buffet who is world's No. 1 investor and the riches investor

Therefore my advice is concentrate on individual stocks and buy them at super bargain prices without waiting for the entire market to crash to buy stocks. Once again these companies should have durable competitive advantage, shareholder driven management and good future earning potential.

ranferdi wrote:

Maharaja wrote:When market is crashing and everyone wants to sell, these fools decide to waste EPF tax payer money and buy a failing share market. This is 100% wrong.

Most members in the forum want the EPF to enter because they want to make profit. Did you think about the profit or loss and risk for EPF fund ? 

1. EPF cannot buy even 50% of the blue chips foreigners will sell off. Because of guidelines in use for the fund.

2. Think EPF buys all selling that comes from all sectors. (As some members here say)
Afterwards who is going to buy the shares EPF collected ? 
Afterwards why CSE turns bullish ?

So do not be fools and go behind EPF fund to save this failing market.
Go behind economic data, because market is a reflection of economy. 
Our growth rates falling, interest rates rising, exchange rate flying 


I will update support levels after budget proposal ! 


Maharaja.

Well EPF had made a prudent decision to buy at the bottom or close to bottom. They will invest long term not for short term. Where were you when EPF bought GRAN at 187?? When your bosses ruled the country

samaritan wrote:Today too foreigners disposed nearly a million rotten eggs (JKH).

Its difficult to rebuild the lost reputation owing to the Central Bank Robbery. Its better for the robbers to step down at the earliest before people kick them out.
The best strategy:
        

samaritan wrote:Today too foreigners disposed nearly a million rotten eggs (JKH).

Its difficult to rebuild the lost reputation owing to the Central Bank Robbery. Its better for the robbers to step down at the earliest before people kick them out.
The best strategy:
        

Yahapalanaya wrote:

samaritan wrote:Today too foreigners disposed nearly a million rotten eggs (JKH).

Its difficult to rebuild the lost reputation owing to the Central Bank Robbery. Its better for the robbers to step down at the earliest before people kick them out.
The best strategy:
        

Srilanka doesn't have a Lee kuan yew or Dr.Mahadir mohammed at the monent.Do you want to replace this goernment with another worse group of 3rd grade robbers, religious fanatics, racist and thug.

soileconomy wrote:

Yahapalanaya wrote:

samaritan wrote:Today too foreigners disposed nearly a million rotten eggs (JKH).

Its difficult to rebuild the lost reputation owing to the Central Bank Robbery. Its better for the robbers to step down at the earliest before people kick them out.
The best strategy:
        

Srilanka doesn't have a Lee kuan yew or Dr.Mahadir mohammed at the monent.Do you want to replace this goernment with another worse group of 3rd grade robbers, religious fanatics, racist and thug.

But sri Lanka has world's biggest robbers who is capable of looting its main bank._central bank