Best Short and Medium Term stocks

Can I ask how you go t that value 37 million plz?
Reguarding you question,
Net profit for the period= 210,699,20
Mark to mark adjustment = 114,974,925
So 2.41= (210,699,20-114,974,925)/ 39,685,048.
The value of 2.41 can only go up as as for the Net profit for the period would have included even if there was any expenses in valuing the Mark to mark adjustment as well. ( when you exclude it).

Where is another link about the CDB. http://www.ft.lk/2011/01/28/cdb-tops-rs-300-m-in-9-month-net-profit/

Can you please share about your 4 stocks after explaining how you say CDB have such low gain mono ?
(Edit type last sentence)

mono wrote:

Rajitha wrote:

mono wrote:
lol, getting angry aren't we? can you show me how you concocted that EPS of 9.6.

Forward EPS of Rs. 9.6= 2.4*4 for annualized. The value Rs 2.4 is the Earnings for the quarter without the mark to mark evaluation and stuff, after getting reduced from Rs. 5.31 . About the CFVF already SLStock gave an explanation. It would be a great idea if people refrain from giving advice to rest if they do not have any understanding about the matter or just doing it on just speculation please say it . Just because there are some added earning than the core business does not mean 100% of the earnings come from added earnings. Regarding MAl.X as I said the reason it can shoot a bit high is ofc because its illiquid and in CSE that means when a upward movement starts it goes up way more than the liquid share. ( LGL.X, COCO.X )

Also as I said its a matter for discussion but I still can only see myself from posting about companies. Can some of you also please contribute without some data to back up.

where do you get the 2.4? I only see 37 million in gross operational profits.

The other big problem with CFVF are the interest rates. The money they are showing right now are from bonds from about 4-5 years ago when the interest rates plus inflation was sky high relative to the present. unless we know exactly how many of those instruments are left it's difficult to estimate future income. and it's also unlikely that such a favorable situation would arise again. that's why this stock didn't break 30 the moment September earnings weren't announced. Most people have doubt about CFVF's ability continually give returns of this level

Also you really need some reading comprehension man. Thast why listed CFVF under short term gain and not under Medium term company. IF you check they have got a margin trading account and you can see in their annual prospectus how they intend to diversify for the future of the company.

Rajitha wrote:

mono wrote:

Rajitha wrote:

mono wrote:
lol, getting angry aren't we? can you show me how you concocted that EPS of 9.6.

Forward EPS of Rs. 9.6= 2.4*4 for annualized. The value Rs 2.4 is the Earnings for the quarter without the mark to mark evaluation and stuff, after getting reduced from Rs. 5.31 . About the CFVF already SLStock gave an explanation. It would be a great idea if people refrain from giving advice to rest if they do not have any understanding about the matter or just doing it on just speculation please say it . Just because there are some added earning than the core business does not mean 100% of the earnings come from added earnings. Regarding MAl.X as I said the reason it can shoot a bit high is ofc because its illiquid and in CSE that means when a upward movement starts it goes up way more than the liquid share. ( LGL.X, COCO.X )

Also as I said its a matter for discussion but I still can only see myself from posting about companies. Can some of you also please contribute without some data to back up.

where do you get the 2.4? I only see 37 million in gross operational profits.

The other big problem with CFVF are the interest rates. The money they are showing right now are from bonds from about 4-5 years ago when the interest rates plus inflation was sky high relative to the present. unless we know exactly how many of those instruments are left it's difficult to estimate future income. and it's also unlikely that such a favorable situation would arise again. that's why this stock didn't break 30 the moment September earnings weren't announced. Most people have doubt about CFVF's ability continually give returns of this level

Also you really need some reading comprehension man. Thast why listed CFVF under short term gain and not under Medium term company. IF you check they have got a margin trading account and you can see in their annual prospectus how they intend to diversify for the future of the company.

short term or long term doesn't matter. the share has to attract big buyers for it to move, either that or you run an aggressive ad campaign backed by a brokerage. Big buyers don't move in unless they see long time gains. this is why plantations such as MAL always trade at a discount. Short term movements are nothing more than reactions to long term buyers moving in.

and i thought their trading account was for bonds. correct me if i'm wrong. I don't think they are buying stocks. this was discussed in investnow.lk

mono wrote:
short term or long term doesn't matter. the share has to attract big buyers for it to move, either that or you run an aggressive ad campaign backed by a brokerage. Big buyers don't move in unless they see long time gains. this is why plantations such as MAL always trade at a discount. Short term movements are nothing more than reactions to long term buyers moving in.

and i thought their trading account was for bonds. correct me if i'm wrong. I don't think they are buying stocks. this was discussed in investnow.lk

WEll that can you expalin why you said you are going to buy CFVF your self in this same tread above ? Also just because a company does not have huge future potential that does not mean it will not give great returns in the short term mainly in the form of dividends. Anyway there is only one month for you to whait and see if the share price may rise to a peak within next month. I would be more than ready to back with future growth of the 2 companies I listed as medium term.

Also can you please say what you have to tell about the false rumors you been carrying out about the CDB investment all being evaluations and only 37 million profits and they can not repeat the process? I already showed you how I calculated the value of Rs 9.6 Annual EPS. Can you back your statements that you made now plz ?

Rajitha wrote:Can I ask how you go t that value 37 million plz?
Reguarding you question,
Net profit for the period= 210,699,20
Mark to mark adjustment = 114,974,925
So 2.41= (210,699,20-114,974,925)/ 39,685,048.
The value of 2.41 can only go up as as for the Net profit for the period would have included even if there was any expenses in valuing the Mark to mark adjustment as well. ( when you exclude it).

Where is another link about the CDB. http://www.ft.lk/2011/01/28/cdb-tops-rs-300-m-in-9-month-net-profit/

Can you please share about your 4 stocks after explaining how you say CDB have such low gain mono ?
(Edit type last sentence)

you're assuming that the remaining 50mil in the other income category can be replicated every quarter. I'm not buying that. they do seem to get healthy amount of commissions, but there is no way they can get 50 mil in commissions alone.

gross profit was a simple calculation, net interest income subtracted by operating cost. the other thing is that they have put a negative value for bad/doubtful debt of 15 million. that's again something that cannot be replicated in fact it should almost always be a negative positive value, and espically so considering this was part of the ceylinco fiasco. But i'm not sure how badly CDB was exposed to that

mono wrote:

Rajitha wrote:Can I ask how you go t that value 37 million plz?
Reguarding you question,
Net profit for the period= 210,699,20
Mark to mark adjustment = 114,974,925
So 2.41= (210,699,20-114,974,925)/ 39,685,048.
The value of 2.41 can only go up as as for the Net profit for the period would have included even if there was any expenses in valuing the Mark to mark adjustment as well. ( when you exclude it).

Where is another link about the CDB. http://www.ft.lk/2011/01/28/cdb-tops-rs-300-m-in-9-month-net-profit/

Can you please share about your 4 stocks after explaining how you say CDB have such low gain mono ?
(Edit type last sentence)

you're assuming that the remaining 50mil in the other income category can be replicated every quarter. I'm not buying that. they do seem to get healthy amount of commissions, but there is no way they can get 50 mil in commissions alone.


gross profit was a simple calculation, net interest income subtracted by operating cost. the other thing is that they have put a negative value for bad/doubtful debt of 15 million. that's again something that cannot be replicated in fact it should almost always be a negative value, and espically so considering this was part of the ceylinco fiasco. But i'm not sure how badly CDB was exposed to that

So you making your calculations on assumptions and not on any valid accounting terms ? So I guess the quite clear gain we all +me (Lecture) + the papers can see is a mistake ?
Also from the post about you going to buy CFVF and saying rest not to buy and they can not justify the price only indicate you just trying to manipulate the rest of the people to dump there shares so you can buy it lower.

mono wrote:

slstock wrote:Mono,
The thing is even if one take the off gains and tax reversal CFVF is still has about 4 EPS annualized. So the share can be worth around RS 40 atleast presently. But it has a weird behavior.

A m not making a buy recommedation as you pointed out it a bit dodgy. But presently with expected earning from LAMB sale this quarter should be decent and some dividend is what we expect.


BTW, do you still have CFVF with you are gave it up.

I'm looking to buy back again. I'm not going to buy as many as I bought last time around

Rajitha wrote:

mono wrote:
short term or long term doesn't matter. the share has to attract big buyers for it to move, either that or you run an aggressive ad campaign backed by a brokerage. Big buyers don't move in unless they see long time gains. this is why plantations such as MAL always trade at a discount. Short term movements are nothing more than reactions to long term buyers moving in.

and i thought their trading account was for bonds. correct me if i'm wrong. I don't think they are buying stocks. this was discussed in investnow.lk

WEll that can you expalin why you said you are going to buy CFVF your self in this same tread above ? Also just because a company does not have huge future potential that does not mean it will not give great returns in the short term mainly in the form of dividends. Anyway there is only one month for you to whait and see if the share price may rise to a peak within next month. I would be more than ready to back with future growth of the 2 companies I listed as medium term.

Also can you please say what you have to tell about the false rumors you been carrying out about the CDB investment all being evaluations and only 37 million profits and they can not repeat the process? I already showed you how I calculated the value of Rs 9.6 Annual EPS. Can you back your statements that you made now plz ?

The thing with the divideds story is that it has been around for about three months. i got this at 18 december and disposed of it at 27.5. now that the stock has gone up more than 50% i don't want to put alot of money into to this so'll buy like 20K, if the dividend comes it'll be good. if not it won't be a big loss. CFVF hasn't shown us quarter by quarter growth so it's difficult to estimate next quarter's earnings. now the problem with CFVF speculation is if they publish this quarter's results and if they are disappointing. this share will come down into the low 20s.

That's why i don't think CFVF is a great deal for short term gains. MAL.X is risky if things go wrong and you have to sell in a hurry you won't be able to sell. that's why this trades at a discount.

CDB is a little overpriced in my opinion, but if the market evaluates it the way you look at it you'll get nice earnings. So if you have confidence in you evaluation, cheers & good luck. in any case CDB will do well in the future as most of the Ceylinco companies seem to be recovering

mono wrote:
The thing with the divideds story is that it has been around for about three months. i got this at 18 december and disposed of it at 27.5. now that the stock has gone up more than 50% i don't want to put alot of money into to this so'll buy like 20K, if the dividend comes it'll be good. if not it won't be a big loss. .........
That's why i don't think CFVF is a great deal for short term gains. MAL.X is risky if things go wrong and you have to sell in a hurry you won't be able to sell. that's why this trades at a discount.......

Well if you check the dividend date you can clearly see they have been giving the dividends in the february and last year also share price start to sky rocket around late Jan to mid February. I think you are misinterpreting JINS dividend with CFVF.

Reguarding MAL.X I just realised it from your prospective becasue of the small amount of 20k shares of CFVF . Well you are must be hoping to buy in range of 50k or so and I can c why this might be a problem if you want to dump all at once. For me I' hoping to buy in the range of 700-1000 shares as I'm just a small fish in a big sea. So that is actually not a huge deal for me dump them easily for a good gain in like in one months time after there financial statement comes out.

what do you think of CRL ?

directors are buying recently at 56,57 levels .. after rights their price is increased bit. may be next reports shows some good sign.. now it is managed by softlogic .. might be a good prospect...
but I haven't studied this share much..just go through with announcements..

econ wrote:what do you think of CRL ?

directors are buying recently at 56,57 levels .. after rights their price is increased bit. may be next reports shows some good sign.. now it is managed by softlogic .. might be a good prospect...
but I haven't studied this share much..just go through with announcements..

don't know much about it. charts look ok

Dr. Senthil sold over 450K of his holdings of CDB in low 70s. Why did he do this if CDB is undervalued.

Think about that. I'm certain senthil knows more about valuations than anyone in this forum.

mono wrote:Dr. Senthil sold over 450K of his holdings of CDB in low 70s. Why did he do this if CDB is undervalued.

Think about that. I'm certain senthil knows more about valuations than anyone in this forum.

Mono,
I believe he held over 1 million shares. Maybe he divested part of it as he bought cheap , or maybe he wanted to move the money somewhere else. Also the person who bought those shares I guess did with some intention and evaluation at Rs 70.
Just some thought

slstock wrote:

mono wrote:Dr. Senthil sold over 450K of his holdings of CDB in low 70s. Why did he do this if CDB is undervalued.

Think about that. I'm certain senthil knows more about valuations than anyone in this forum.

Mono,
I believe he held over 1 million shares. Maybe he divested part of it as he bought cheap , or maybe he wanted to move the money somewhere else. Also the person who bought those shares I guess did with some intention and evaluation at Rs 70.
Just some thought

but think about it, he sold a large chunk at that price. do you think he'll exit an undervalued share. It's not like he's short of cash. I don't think so. and it's not one guy who bought the shares it was sold in the market.