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Sri Lanka Equity Forum » Stock Market Talk » Motor Sector Analysis

Motor Sector Analysis

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1Motor Sector Analysis Empty Motor sector performance on Mon Feb 14, 2011 3:09 pm

Monster

Monster
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
ASHO interim report is out today. Almost 40% QoQ growth.

Quarter EPS = 88.80
Annualised EPS = 222.60
Current Market price = 3000.00
Current PER = 3000.00/222.60 = 13.48

We have seen mega growth on motor sectos UML, COLO, AUTO, SMOT. I am expecting an extra ordinary result from DIMO. I hope it will touch 2000 soon. UML also looks attractive at current market price.

2Motor Sector Analysis Empty Re: Motor Sector Analysis on Mon Feb 14, 2011 3:33 pm

wis


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Do you think they can keep this growth in the future? What I feel is these motor company profits are like a water hose squeezed by foot. All this time the pressure was built up as soon as the foot was taken out (tax was reduced), the withheld water just gushed out. After that it would show average performance.
I've heard that companies have brought lots of vehicles under reduced taxes and then the taxes reduced again and they are stuck with the lot.
Anyway now the taxes are reduced, other than companies, as far as I know, people just directly import vehicles from Japanese auctions. It seems second hand vehicles are more expensive than brand new vehicles in Japan. :-)

3Motor Sector Analysis Empty Re: Motor Sector Analysis on Mon Feb 14, 2011 4:36 pm

tubal


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@wis wrote:Do you think they can keep this growth in the future? What I feel is these motor company profits are like a water hose squeezed by foot. All this time the pressure was built up as soon as the foot was taken out (tax was reduced), the withheld water just gushed out. After that it would show average performance.
I've heard that companies have brought lots of vehicles under reduced taxes and then the taxes reduced again and they are stuck with the lot.
Anyway now the taxes are reduced, other than companies, as far as I know, people just directly import vehicles from Japanese auctions. It seems second hand vehicles are more expensive than brand new vehicles in Japan. :-)

I am with wis 99% of the way. Definitely motors are going to have lower EPS next year than for the current financial year. So they should trade at a PE that's much lower than the market PE. So to say that sector PE is x and Company annualized EPS is y and derive the future market price as xy simply isn't going to work.

However there are certain companies that can produce reasonably good results in the future, (EPS will decline next year but may not be a drastic decline). I am not going to name them lest I am accused of promoting my own shares. However I will give a few hints.

Look for companies that are not dependent on one or two models of cars but have a whole range of vehicles for every segment of the market. And look for the ones that don't just sell cars but are into other businesses as well.

4Motor Sector Analysis Empty Re: Motor Sector Analysis on Mon Feb 14, 2011 5:05 pm

mono

mono
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
What bunch of boring bears Rolling Eyes

5Motor Sector Analysis Empty Re: Motor Sector Analysis on Tue Feb 15, 2011 3:48 am

tubal


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Woah. There did you see the dimo results? 10 fold growth YoY!! I hope people will not say this will grow to 17000
Very Happy

6Motor Sector Analysis Empty Re: Motor Sector Analysis on Tue Feb 15, 2011 5:02 am

smallville

smallville
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Its high time for DIMO to do a split now ;-)

7Motor Sector Analysis Empty DIMO and ASHO on Tue Feb 15, 2011 7:03 am

Monster

Monster
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
What a performance by DIMO. I was holding this share expecting good result in this quarter. My expectation was they will come up with EPS 50 - 60. But they I never thought they will come up with such an excellent performance. Very Happy

BTW why ASHO went down suddenly in the morning? Shocked ASHO also produced a good interim report. Guys, did you find any thing wrong in the interim report? It was trading at 4000/- few months back. But any how I was lucky enough to collect some at 1500/- level Very Happy

8Motor Sector Analysis Empty Re: Motor Sector Analysis on Tue Feb 15, 2011 7:55 am

tubal


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Monster wrote:What a performance by DIMO. I was holding this share expecting good result in this quarter. My expectation was they will come up with EPS 50 - 60. But they I never thought they will come up with such an excellent performance. Very Happy

BTW why ASHO went down suddenly in the morning? Shocked ASHO also produced a good interim report. Guys, did you find any thing wrong in the interim report? It was trading at 4000/- few months back. But any how I was lucky enough to collect some at 1500/- level Very Happy

Some one sold a large quantity of ASHO, that's why it dropped dramatically. One wonders what would happen if someone does the same thing with the palm oil shares.

Getting back to DIMO. I also have some of this and I was expecting about 500 million for the quarter.

As I've often said before, earnings have to exceed expectation for a share to appreciate after earnings are announced. Well, since most people have been taken by surprise, I guess DIMO fits that critier.

9Motor Sector Analysis Empty Re: Motor Sector Analysis on Tue Feb 15, 2011 8:31 am

smallville

smallville
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
With the best performance in motor sector, what kind of price range we're looking at in a couple of days for DIMO? 1900+?

10Motor Sector Analysis Empty Re: Motor Sector Analysis on Tue Feb 15, 2011 8:41 am

Monster

Monster
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
All motor sector shares appreciated in the recent past due to massive profit. But PBV high for motor sector compare to other sectors except AUTO. We should consider PBV too when we decide the valuation. Any comments?

11Motor Sector Analysis Empty Re: Motor sector performance on Wed Feb 16, 2011 9:09 am

ranga


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
DIMO Performance

31ST DECEMBER 2010 974MN 111.91EPS
30th SEPTEMBER 201 305.5MN 35.10EPS
30TH JUNE 2010 153MN 17.53EPS
31ST MARCH 2010 139MN 15.93EPS


12Motor Sector Analysis Empty Re: Motor Sector Analysis on Thu Feb 17, 2011 11:23 am

Monster

Monster
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
DIMO
Q3 EPS --> 111.91
Last nine months EPS --> 164.41
Forward annualized EPS (with 10% growth) --> 164.41 + (111.91*1.1) = 287.51
Current Market Price --> 1,800.00
Forward PER --> 1,800.00/287.51 = 6.26
NVPS --> 411.38

ASHO
Q3 EPS --> 88.83
Last nine months EPS --> 179.23
Forward annualized EPS (with 10% growth) --> 179.23 + (88.83*1.1) = 276.94
Current Market Price --> 2,300.00
Forward PER --> 2,300.00/276.94 = 8.30
NVPS --> 329.00

UML
Q3 EPS --> 5.42
Last nine months EPS --> 8.28
Forward annualized EPS (with 10% growth) --> 8.28 + (5.42*1.1) = 14.24
Current Market Price --> 175.00
Forward PER --> 175.00/14.24 = 12.29
NVPS --> 54.49

SMOT
Q3 EPS --> 3.74
Last nine months EPS --> 9.42
Forward annualized EPS (with 10% growth) --> 9.42 + (3.74*1.1) = 13.53
Current Market Price --> 228.00
Forward PER --> 228.00/13.53 = 16.85
NVPS --> 65.61

COLO
Q3 EPS --> 5.06
Last nine months EPS --> 9.56
Forward annualized EPS (with 10% growth) --> 9.56 + (5.06*1.1) = 15.13
Current Market Price --> 292.00
Forward PER --> 292.00/15.13 = 19.30
NVPS --> 138.63

AUTO
Q3 EPS --> 12.87
Last nine months EPS --> 30.77
Forward annualized EPS (with 10% growth) --> 30.77 + (12.87*1.1) = 44.93
Current Market Price --> 800.00
Forward PER --> 800.00/44.93 = 17.81
NVPS --> 195.49[u]

13Motor Sector Analysis Empty Re: Motor Sector Analysis on Thu Feb 17, 2011 11:52 am

tubal


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Thanks for the analysis monster. Have you considered the UML split? Guess DIMO looks good. I think companies in this sector should trade at PE 10 max because of uncertainty about future prospects.

14Motor Sector Analysis Empty Re: Motor Sector Analysis on Thu Feb 17, 2011 12:10 pm

Monster

Monster
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@tubal wrote:Thanks for the analysis monster. Have you considered the UML split? Guess DIMO looks good. I think companies in this sector should trade at PE 10 max because of uncertainty about future prospects.
Thanks tubal. I forgot to mention. Sorry silent UML EPS is after the split.

No doubt DIMO will rock soon. ASHO and UML too attractive at current market price. Almost 80% of my portfolio is filled with motor sector.

15Motor Sector Analysis Empty Re: Motor Sector Analysis on Thu Feb 17, 2011 12:26 pm

mark

mark
Expert
Expert
my broker advised me to buy COLO-@100levels,UML@130levels(before split).....

16Motor Sector Analysis Empty Re: Motor Sector Analysis on Thu Feb 17, 2011 12:28 pm

mark

mark
Expert
Expert
@Monster wrote:DIMO
Q3 EPS --> 111.91
Last nine months EPS --> 164.41
Forward annualized EPS (with 10% growth) --> 164.41 + (111.91*1.1) = 287.51
Current Market Price --> 1,800.00
Forward PER --> 1,800.00/287.51 = 6.26
NVPS --> 411.38

ASHO
Q3 EPS --> 88.83
Last nine months EPS --> 179.23
Forward annualized EPS (with 10% growth) --> 179.23 + (88.83*1.1) = 276.94
Current Market Price --> 2,300.00
Forward PER --> 2,300.00/276.94 = 8.30
NVPS --> 329.00

UML
Q3 EPS --> 5.42
Last nine months EPS --> 8.28
Forward annualized EPS (with 10% growth) --> 8.28 + (5.42*1.1) = 14.24
Current Market Price --> 175.00
Forward PER --> 175.00/14.24 = 12.29
NVPS --> 54.49

SMOT
Q3 EPS --> 3.74
Last nine months EPS --> 9.42
Forward annualized EPS (with 10% growth) --> 9.42 + (3.74*1.1) = 13.53
Current Market Price --> 228.00
Forward PER --> 228.00/13.53 = 16.85
NVPS --> 65.61

COLO
Q3 EPS --> 5.06
Last nine months EPS --> 9.56
Forward annualized EPS (with 10% growth) --> 9.56 + (5.06*1.1) = 15.13
Current Market Price --> 292.00
Forward PER --> 292.00/15.13 = 19.30
NVPS --> 138.63

AUTO
Q3 EPS --> 12.87
Last nine months EPS --> 30.77
Forward annualized EPS (with 10% growth) --> 30.77 + (12.87*1.1) = 44.93
Current Market Price --> 800.00
Forward PER --> 800.00/44.93 = 17.81
NVPS --> 195.49[u]

nice work..all in one.................

17Motor Sector Analysis Empty Motor Sector Analysis on Sun May 20, 2012 6:30 pm

sanjeewa88

sanjeewa88
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
This is an analysis of motor sector for nine months ended 31/12/2011.

18Motor Sector Analysis Empty Re: Motor Sector Analysis on Mon May 21, 2012 5:26 am

Redbulls

Redbulls
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
Thanks sanjeewa88.

19Motor Sector Analysis Empty Re: Motor Sector Analysis on Mon May 21, 2012 7:54 am

Rizmi

Rizmi
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
As per the analysis DIMO looks very attractive.. Not sure how the March results will turnout to be Sad

20Motor Sector Analysis Empty Re: Motor Sector Analysis on Mon May 21, 2012 8:43 am

wgsaman

wgsaman
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
thanks

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