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Sri Lanka Equity Forum » Stock Market Talk » Land and Property Sector

Land and Property Sector

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1Land and Property Sector Empty Land and Property Sector on Sat Feb 12, 2011 10:33 pm

MarketResearch

MarketResearch
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
With the massive projects to be  launched in Colombo city (Hotels and other major constructions) what would be the best land and property sector share for medium term and long term

As we know the Army Head Quarters to be relocated at Battaramulla and  that land would be allocated for Shangrila Hotel.

The all constructions would be overlooked and managed by Urban Development Authority.(UDA)

Since UDA holds a number of stake of Colombo Land and is there any possibility to become CLND the best among the land and property sector?

Further we heard about a revaluation of Colombo Land.

Please share your thoughts.

2Land and Property Sector Empty Re: Land and Property Sector on Sun Feb 13, 2011 7:11 am

tubal


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Have a close look at the CLND results. Where is the magical growth that was being touted?

With the government trying to reclaim the see, there will soon be a surplus of land in colombo, not a shortage.

3Land and Property Sector Empty Re: Land and Property Sector on Sun Feb 13, 2011 8:14 am

MarketResearch

MarketResearch
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@tubal wrote:Have a close look at the CLND results. Where is the magical growth that was being touted?

With the government trying to reclaim the see, there will soon be a surplus of land in colombo, not a shortage.

Many thanks for the explanation.
As you told very bad future for Colombo Land.
The investors will identify the risk of invest on CLND.
As you said the Government will reclaim the sea very soon.
Then no demand for the land.
It will be a surplus lands in Colombo.

Thanks again.

4Land and Property Sector Empty Re: Land and Property Sector on Sun Feb 13, 2011 10:47 am

smallville

smallville
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Guys I'm not getting this.. if this is true, how long it will take the government to convert the sea to land? I'm sure its not a 3-6 month project..
If we have a surplus of lands, we can assume the land price is gonna go down.. But u can't reclaim the whole sea owned by SL.. so wats the da point?
Ppl will then realize the value of land and bids will be higher accordingly the prices may rise too..

I'm not still getting this.. is this a joke or ;-))

5Land and Property Sector Empty Re: Land and Property Sector on Sun Feb 13, 2011 10:57 am

tubal


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Smallville, I am also skeptical about the sea reclamation project . This has been talked about since 2007. The plan is to fill up the area from the new harbour upto the Galle Face. The most important question on my mind is from where are we going to find the 500 million dollars needed for the project? From an IPO?

Nevertheless, I feel that this is something that should be kept in mind when investing in real estate or property development companies. None of them listed on the CSE have lived upto the recent hype anyway.

The land shortage is easing anyway, because the government is easing building restrictions on some areas that were previously a big no-no because of security concerns. Secondly, military establishments are slowly being moved to the suburbs. We've seen the first of it with the Shangri La Hotel project.

6Land and Property Sector Empty Re: Land and Property Sector on Sun Feb 13, 2011 11:01 am

mono

mono
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@tubal wrote:
With the government trying to reclaim the see, there will soon be a surplus of land in colombo, not a shortage.

no.

The Galle face expansion is being done because there is not enough land in Colombo to facilitate the new investments coming in. Also the forst area is being expanded into a more pedestrian friendly and less congested area. I highly doubt there will be a land surplus in colombo, and generally say's law holds for these type of markets. The more you supply more demand you generate

7Land and Property Sector Empty Re: Land and Property Sector on Sun Feb 13, 2011 11:16 am

tubal


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Ah yes, me and mono used to always disagree on investnow but we have been in almost full agreement over here so far. Guess normal service has been restored Smile

8Land and Property Sector Empty Re: Land and Property Sector on Sun Feb 13, 2011 12:10 pm

MarketResearch

MarketResearch
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@tubal wrote:Have a close look at the CLND results. Where is the magical growth that was being touted?

With the government trying to reclaim the see, there will soon be a surplus of land in colombo, not a shortage.

From you first first post you said about surplus of land.

Second and third posts you said about there is not a surplus of land.What is this?

9Land and Property Sector Empty Re: Land and Property Sector on Sun Feb 13, 2011 12:19 pm

MarketResearch

MarketResearch
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@tubal wrote:Have a close look at the CLND results. Where is the magical growth that was being touted?

With the government trying to reclaim the see, there will soon be a surplus of land in colombo, not a shortage.

Do you think the government "Muhuda Goda Karai" immediately.
I heard this this has done by Japanese.
The government will take a long time to do so.
Then how could be a surplus of lands in Colombo.
Not only Colombo Land but also other Land and Property sector firms have a potential market in future.

Thanks.

10Land and Property Sector Empty Re: Land and Property Sector on Sun Feb 13, 2011 12:43 pm

Antonym

Antonym
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Three Points:
1. As long as the economy is growing, there will be demand for land and property - which is why defence land is being converted to commercial use, for example.
2. Reclamation is an expensive business and will be resorted to only when there is a compelling economic case for additional land in that area.
3. When stock markets decline, money moves to safer, tangible assets like bullion and real estate. With valuations in Sri Lanka as they are today, Land & Property is the sector that is least likely to decline - because prices are supported by REAL estate.

So, no fears!

11Land and Property Sector Empty Re: Land and Property Sector on Sun Feb 13, 2011 12:46 pm

mono

mono
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Commercial real estate looks good, but from what i know residential real estate may be stuck at these levels for a while. All thanks to ceylinco Wink

12Land and Property Sector Empty Re: Land and Property Sector on Sun Feb 13, 2011 12:49 pm

tubal


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@MarketResearch wrote:
@tubal wrote:Have a close look at the CLND results. Where is the magical growth that was being touted?

With the government trying to reclaim the see, there will soon be a surplus of land in colombo, not a shortage.

Do you think the government "Muhuda Goda Karai" immediately.

You have obviously not read my second post on this subject, where I have clarified the position given in the first post.

13Land and Property Sector Empty Re: Land and Property Sector on Sun Feb 13, 2011 1:21 pm

MarketResearch

MarketResearch
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@tubal wrote:
@MarketResearch wrote:
@tubal wrote:Have a close look at the CLND results. Where is the magical growth that was being touted?

With the government trying to reclaim the see, there will soon be a surplus of land in colombo, not a shortage.

Do you think the government "Muhuda Goda Karai" immediately.

You have obviously not read my second post on this subject, where I have clarified the position given in the first post.

Thanks Bro....

14Land and Property Sector Empty Re: Land and Property Sector on Sun Feb 13, 2011 1:55 pm

smallville

smallville
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
On second thoughts, I feel that EPS method is not so prominent on real estate valuation.. can some1 enlighten how the usual valuation is done..
Even CFLB is now a days all abt that land value over some billion rupees, hence I believe there valuation could come by in a combination of EPS+land valuation..

Any thoughts..

15Land and Property Sector Empty Re: Land and Property Sector on Sun Feb 13, 2011 2:34 pm

Antonym

Antonym
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
To evaluate companies in the L&P sector, you need to evaluate the real estate that they own. It is a good idea to first compare share price with NAV. If the share price is less than NAV, it is likely to be worth buying - unless, of course, it is a loss making company.

Some good questions to ask are:
1. Would I buy this real estate at this NAV?
2. Is the NAV understated, i.e. are there hidden reserves because the land has not been revalued recently? What are the likely gains from such revaluation?
3. Can this property generate returns/ rentals for the shareholders? (That's where EPS comes in.)
4. What is the potential for appreciation of the real estate?

There are some decent opportunities out there in the L&P Sector, if you are willing to settle for lower returns than what the CSE has given us in the past 2 years. Good luck!

16Land and Property Sector Empty Re: Land and Property Sector on Sun Feb 13, 2011 3:08 pm

MarketResearch

MarketResearch
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@smallville wrote:On second thoughts, I feel that EPS method is not so prominent on real estate valuation.. can some1 enlighten how the usual valuation is done..
Even CFLB is now a days all abt that land value over some billion rupees, hence I believe there valuation could come by in a combination of EPS+land valuation..

Any thoughts..

With reference CFLB, it is going up massively last recent days.I do not think only the revaluation is the only reason to increase.
Group performance could be another factor.

What else regarding CFLB.Some people say it will hit 800-1000/= (i do not know on what base they say that.If you have any reason to justify it,please share with us.

If not please tell the risk factors of CFLB.

Happy Trading.

17Land and Property Sector Empty Re: Land and Property Sector on Sun Feb 13, 2011 3:15 pm

sapumal


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@MarketResearch
Congrats mate. I'll give up. You are 7 away from the 100 but still I am so far behind
Can you pl give me a vote ?

18Land and Property Sector Empty Re: Land and Property Sector on Sun Feb 13, 2011 3:16 pm

tubal


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
I think MarketResearch might have bottomed out. His posts are slowly improving.

19Land and Property Sector Empty Re: Land and Property Sector on Sun Feb 13, 2011 3:34 pm

MarketResearch

MarketResearch
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@tubal wrote:I think MarketResearch might have bottomed out. His posts are slowly improving.

Machan.Mama den el wathurath niwala tamai bonne.Mata kochchcara gehuwath asalwesiyata(neighbour)ta "PREMA" Karami.Mage me uthsahaya -100 laba genima misa plus points nowe.

Thanks.Mata gahanna.



Last edited by MarketResearch on Sun Feb 13, 2011 3:36 pm; edited 1 time in total

20Land and Property Sector Empty Re: Land and Property Sector on Sun Feb 13, 2011 3:35 pm

MarketResearch

MarketResearch
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@tubal wrote:I think MarketResearch might have bottomed out. His posts are slowly improving.

Machan.Mama den el wathurath niwala tamai bonne.Mata kochchcara gehuwath
asalwesiyata(neighbour)ta "PREMA" Karami.Mage me uthsahaya -100 laba
genima misa plus points nowe.

Thanks.Mata gahanna.(Mono tath kiyanna mata gahanna kiyala)

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