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Sri Lanka Equity Forum » Stock Market Talk » Expert Chamber » A walk down memory lane .....

A walk down memory lane .....

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21A walk down memory lane ..... - Page 2 Empty Re: A walk down memory lane ..... on Fri May 24, 2013 5:31 pm

The Alchemist


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
DFCC in FY 1978/1979

Profit - Rs 12.5 million
Number of shares issued - 240,000 @ Rs 100/-
NAV - Rs 210
EPS - Rs 52
Dividend - Rs 12
Share Price as at 31st March 1979 - not available - i think allotment in 82/83
Share Price as at 31st March 1983 - high 92, low 84 - allotment price 120 ?

22A walk down memory lane ..... - Page 2 Empty Re: A walk down memory lane ..... on Fri May 24, 2013 5:40 pm

The Alchemist


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
HNB in FY 1978/1979

Profit - Rs 19 million
Number of shares issued - 500,000 (increased to 1 million shares in 79/80)
NAV - Rs 87
EPS - Rs 38
Dividend - Rs 4
Share Price as at 31st March 1979 - Rs 16

23A walk down memory lane ..... - Page 2 Empty Re: A walk down memory lane ..... on Fri May 24, 2013 6:03 pm

WildBear


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Today's Giant stocks traded at P/E ratios less than 1 those days.

24A walk down memory lane ..... - Page 2 Empty Re: A walk down memory lane ..... on Fri May 24, 2013 6:30 pm

kukumarx


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
JKH was first listed in the late 8o's. The issue price was Rs 10/- per share. I wonder what that 10 Re share will be worth now(with dividends & bonus) !

Also Nest issued shares in the early 80's. You got LSD (lump sum depreciation) if you bought the share. That is you could write off the entire amount of shares brought and reduce your taxable income. My father bought about 4000 shares then for the princely sum of Rs 40,000/-. The share struggled for years and he finally sold later for Rs 21 per share. If he had held on!

But at the same time he also bought Taj. Same set up (LSD). Didn't get him anywhere! Now only Rs 30 (30 years later)

Win some- loose some. But thinking back, more winners than loosers.

25A walk down memory lane ..... - Page 2 Empty Re: A walk down memory lane ..... on Fri May 24, 2013 6:54 pm

Antonym


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
I think there's a lesson in this for us: Hold on!

But before that, we need to do our own research, understand the profitability & longevity of the business that we are buying into, do a SWOT analysis, check out the professionalism of the management. You should invest your hard earned money only if the company makes the grade on all parameters.

If buying a share is just a short term fling, it doesn't matter that much. But when the intent is a long term commitment, you better be sure about what you are getting into.

26A walk down memory lane ..... - Page 2 Empty Re: A walk down memory lane ..... on Fri May 24, 2013 6:55 pm

Kithsiri

Kithsiri
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Chinwi wrote:දැන් ඉන්න තරුණ අයත් තව වසර 20-30 යනකොට මේ වගේ කියන්න පුළුවන් වෙන කොටස් මොනවද කියල හොයා ගන්න එක හොඳයි .
නිකමට අරගෙන දාල අමතක කරලා ඉන්න.
ඔය මල් කඩන්න , රිංග් ටෝන් දාගන්න විසි කරන සල්ලි වලින්.
Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy

27A walk down memory lane ..... - Page 2 Empty Re: A walk down memory lane ..... on Fri May 24, 2013 7:19 pm

traderathome

traderathome
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
I have been telling my daughter and son..and also letting them see what i do....hopefully they will take up into equity investment..... Very Happy

28A walk down memory lane ..... - Page 2 Empty Re: A walk down memory lane ..... on Fri May 24, 2013 7:50 pm

anu

anu
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Lovely thread...thanks to Alchem.

Those are the days the investment were confined largely at institutional level and a privileged few at personal investor level..

29A walk down memory lane ..... - Page 2 Empty Re: A walk down memory lane ..... on Fri May 24, 2013 8:42 pm

The Alchemist


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
The Ceylon Brewery Ltd (BREW) in FY 1978/1979

Profit - Rs 2.6 million
Number of shares issued - 504,976
NAV - Rs 31
EPS - Rs 5.15
Dividend - Rs 1.75
Share Price as at 31st March 1979 - Rs 10 (high 15, low 10)

30A walk down memory lane ..... - Page 2 Empty Re: A walk down memory lane ..... on Fri May 24, 2013 8:49 pm

sahan8896


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Is there a place to get share price from the first date of trading?

31A walk down memory lane ..... - Page 2 Empty Re: A walk down memory lane ..... on Fri May 24, 2013 8:52 pm

The Alchemist


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Ceylon Tobacco Limited (CTC) in FY 1978/1979

Profit - Rs 26 million
Number of shares issued - 10,240,000
NAV - Rs 14.40
EPS - Rs 2.53
Dividend - Rs 1.60
Share Price as at 31st March 1979 - Rs 8 (high 15, low Cool
low price is rs 8 - i dont know how that smiley icon got there !

32A walk down memory lane ..... - Page 2 Empty Re: A walk down memory lane ..... on Fri May 24, 2013 8:58 pm

The Alchemist


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Acme Aluminium (Acme) in FY 1978/1979

Profit - Rs 3.7 million
Number of shares issued - 548,856
NAV - Rs 26
EPS - Rs 6.75
Dividend - Rs 1.50
Share Price as at 31st March 1979 - Rs 10 (high 17, low 10)

33A walk down memory lane ..... - Page 2 Empty Re: A walk down memory lane ..... on Fri May 24, 2013 9:07 pm

sahan8896


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
The Alchemist,where are you getting these figures?

34A walk down memory lane ..... - Page 2 Empty Re: A walk down memory lane ..... on Fri May 24, 2013 9:08 pm

The Alchemist


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
ACL in FY 1978/1979

Profit - Rs 658,700
Number of shares issued - 160,020
NAV - Rs 31.44
EPS - Rs 4.11
Dividend - Rs 1.50
Share Price as at 31st March 1979 - Rs 11 (high 15, low 11.5)

35A walk down memory lane ..... - Page 2 Empty Re: A walk down memory lane ..... on Fri May 24, 2013 9:11 pm

The Alchemist


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@sahan8896 wrote:The Alchemist,where are you getting these figures?

Please look at my opening comments at the beginning of this entire thread.

36A walk down memory lane ..... - Page 2 Empty Re: A walk down memory lane ..... on Fri May 24, 2013 9:16 pm

sriranga

sriranga
Co-Admin
@The Alchemist wrote:I fished out an old Colombo Brokers Association Hand book of Rupee companies from 1979-1983.
If you need a blast from the past, I will be happy to give you statistics from that era.

Kicking it of with details for Buki in FY 1978/1979

Profit - Rs 2.5 million
Number of shares issued - 100,000 (increased to 400,000 in 1979/1980)
NAV - Rs 333
EPS - Rs 25
Dividend - Rs 12.50
Share Price as at 31st March 1979 - Rs 55

They dont come so cheap anymore i guess ! Smile

adding further....

I think 1 usd = Rs 20 in 1979 (can someone reconfirm this ?)
Rs 55 invested in Buki in 1979 = Rs 720,000 in 2013
usd 2.50 invested in Buki in 1979 = usd 5700 in 2013

In 1979, Microsoft IPO happened at usd 27 per share
In 2000, Microsoft was trading split adjusted at usd 3375, up 125 times in 21 years !

1979 start and year end currency rates.
A walk down memory lane ..... - Page 2 Dec30110

A walk down memory lane ..... - Page 2 Jan02110
http://www.tititudorancea.com/

http://sharemarket-srilanka.blogspot.co.uk/

37A walk down memory lane ..... - Page 2 Empty Re: A walk down memory lane ..... on Fri May 24, 2013 9:23 pm

The Alchemist


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@ Sriranga - Thanks ! Thats super info. so 1 USD = Rs 15.55. (in 1979)
I was looking all over the net for this but could not find !
You truly are a master !

38A walk down memory lane ..... - Page 2 Empty Re: A walk down memory lane ..... on Fri May 24, 2013 10:36 pm

Jiggysaurus

Jiggysaurus
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Chinwi wrote:
ඔය මල් කඩන්න , රිංග් ටෝන් දාගන්න විසි කරන සල්ලි වලින්.


ayyo Chinwi tharuna kale mal kadanne nathuwa marunata passe mal kadandada kiyanna?

just as there are good stories about holding shares for centuries there is the other side as well.
in 90s VANI was supposed to be the next JKH, shares worth 100 rupees turned into zero in around 7 years.
even three years ago Greggers was the hot number with the crap mine story, shares worth 150+ turned into 20- in around 3 years.
Better to pick flowers than buy shares like that.

39A walk down memory lane ..... - Page 2 Empty Re: A walk down memory lane ..... on Fri May 24, 2013 10:44 pm

kukumarx


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@Jiggysaurus wrote:
@Chinwi wrote:
ඔය මල් කඩන්න , රිංග් ටෝන් දාගන්න විසි කරන සල්ලි වලින්.


ayyo Chinwi tharuna kale mal kadanne nathuwa marunata passe mal kadandada kiyanna?

just as there are good stories about holding shares for centuries there is the other side as well.
in 90s VANI was supposed to be the next JKH, shares worth 100 rupees turned into zero in around 7 years.
even three years ago Greggers was the hot number with the crap mine story, shares worth 150+ turned into 20- in around 3 years.
Better to pick flowers than buy shares like that.

JKH grew by Di-versification-
For Vanik it was Di-worse-sification

They borrowed and borrowed and borrowed at high interest rates and grew aggressively and couldn't sustain when the slowdown came.

40A walk down memory lane ..... - Page 2 Empty Re: A walk down memory lane ..... on Fri May 24, 2013 11:52 pm

Leon


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Very interesting alchem... For genuine investors the real challenge is to pick the correct value shares which are going to be the winners in the next decade. But to do so, what are the man factors to be looked into?? Coz in the long run EPS,PE and NAV may not be the "Most Important".

41A walk down memory lane ..... - Page 2 Empty Re: A walk down memory lane ..... on Sat May 25, 2013 12:08 am

Gaja


Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Very Interesting Info friend, wish i also could have bought some shares in 78/79, but the main concern was even my parents not married that time!

42A walk down memory lane ..... - Page 2 Empty Re: A walk down memory lane ..... on Sat May 25, 2013 12:42 am

nalaka_sg


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
I strongly believe that next 20 to 30 years of this country more exiting than past 30 or 20 years.

we learned lot of things in hard-way (the evil of nationalism, Marxism, racism and terrorism) while other nations prosper learning from our mistakes (Malaysia,, Singapore and most east Asian countries). but learning form that way is much better than learning by others mistakes. I feel like economy,history, strength and existence of a country is much similar stock market. time to time there will be bear and bull ..but in long term we growing. that's how we survive almost 3000 years. Sad Sad sad we were born in wrong time.


43A walk down memory lane ..... - Page 2 Empty Re: A walk down memory lane ..... on Sat May 25, 2013 12:47 am

taniya1111


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@seek wrote:I don't think CFVF is a growing company. It has a cyclicle business. It seems you have bought it back. Is that you put 85,000 order at 16 on wednesday?.
It was not me who placed 85,000 buying order at 16, I am not buying or selling large quantities at once, I dont want to promote those shares as i have never had some shares i mentioned and i dont have any of mentioned shares at the moment. At the moment cfvf can't be considered as a growing company but as i think it has the potential to be a future winner, its management is not that bad either. they have got orient finance and DNH finance with them. So what they have to do is to expand their business more, specially to be a leading finance company while investing on bonds.

44A walk down memory lane ..... - Page 2 Empty Re: A walk down memory lane ..... on Sat May 25, 2013 6:58 pm

The Alchemist


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@The Alchemist wrote:
In 1979, 1 usd = Rs 15.55
In 2000, 1 usd = Rs 90

In 1979, Gold = usd 307 per ounce (average price)
In 1979, Prime Havelock Road Real Estate (30 perch + house) = Rs 1.8 Million

In 1979, Microsoft IPO happened at usd 27 per share
In 2000, Microsoft was trading split adjusted at usd 3375, up 125 times in 21 years !
In 1979, Buki which had 100,000 shares issued was trading at Rs 55 on 31st March 1979
In 2000, Buki which has 400,000 shares issued was trading at Rs 400 on 31st March 2000


Maths Question for anyone interested (or otherwise bored) -

Given above data, between 1979 and now, Rs 1 hypothetically invested in 1979 (and actively managed) could have amounted to how much now ?

Note - Rs 1 Hypothetically invested in 1979 does not mean literally or actually Rs 1 !

45A walk down memory lane ..... - Page 2 Empty Re: A walk down memory lane ..... on Sat May 25, 2013 7:23 pm

sriranga

sriranga
Co-Admin
@kukumarx wrote:JKH was first listed in the late 8o's. The issue price was Rs 10/- per share. I wonder what that 10 Re share will be worth now(with dividends & bonus) !

Also Nest issued shares in the early 80's. You got LSD (lump sum depreciation) if you bought the share. That is you could write off the entire amount of shares brought and reduce your taxable income. My father bought about 4000 shares then for the princely sum of Rs 40,000/-. The share struggled for years and he finally sold later for Rs 21 per share. If he had held on!

But at the same time he also bought Taj. Same set up (LSD). Didn't get him anywhere! Now only Rs 30 (30 years later)

Win some- loose some. But thinking back, more winners than loosers.


A walk down memory lane ..... - Page 2 Jkh110


A walk down memory lane ..... - Page 2 Jkh210

A walk down memory lane ..... - Page 2 Jkh111
Source: JKH Annual Reports 2004 & 2012

http://sharemarket-srilanka.blogspot.co.uk/

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