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Sri Lanka Equity Forum » Stock Market Talk » NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000)

NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000)

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41NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) - Page 3 Empty Re: NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) on Sat Oct 05, 2013 2:44 am

Dileepa


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Hi mark,
NEST is not going to run, it has a beautiful step function which is very easy to predict Very Happy
(Though I'm surprised by the last spike) 
NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) - Page 3 Nest_r10
Your buy price is kind of optimal.
See that RSI 40 line, It has been below that level only 0.9% of the time for the last 10 years.
So I would say 99% of the time you are pretty much safe cheers 

small,
That doesn't hurt once you build the "nest egg".
(Specially when you know that you are going to get a Rs.60/= dividend)
I was watching this going to 2500 and coming back to 2000  Cool 
As you are a seasoned investor,
I really believe that you should hold this(at lease 10 shares). Wink 
NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) - Page 3 Nest_210

42NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) - Page 3 Empty Re: NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) on Sat Oct 05, 2013 5:19 am

traderathome


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Dear Dileepa,

Coming colours are not good....

I would have sold all NEST NOW.

This is what i see.

I think you have been on the collection spree,I may be wrong but technically its in the SELL towards 1250 levels.

So I would exit all NEST because it broke 2000 level SUPPORT which was for me a mental support for most traders.

I do not own NEST at the moment.

43NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) - Page 3 Empty Re: NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) on Sat Oct 05, 2013 5:29 am

traderathome


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
I am looking @ 1600 to 1250 levels. which would be good to re-enter.
Anyways not meant to influence your decision to SELL.

Trade with care
Good Luck
TAH

44NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) - Page 3 Empty Re: NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) on Sat Oct 05, 2013 6:28 am

glad


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Heard that milk powder prices are set to rise.
What effect will this have?

45NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) - Page 3 Empty Re: NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) on Sat Oct 05, 2013 7:14 am

dudi


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
some say NEST share price will reach Rs15000 one day

46NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) - Page 3 Empty Re: NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) on Sat Oct 05, 2013 7:19 am

traderathome

traderathome
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@dudi wrote:some say NEST share price will reach Rs15000 one day
IMO NEST should go for a split to increase liquidity.... Very Happy 

47NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) - Page 3 Empty Re: NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) on Sat Oct 05, 2013 8:35 am

smallville

smallville
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Good suggestion Dileepa, I can afford 10 shares Smile

After Feb 2011, RSI of NEST has come below 40 only 5 times.

On daily chart;
At 1912, ADX gave a BUY crossover but no significant SELL signal yet. And around 1950 MACD & SAR also gave the BUY signal.
However, at 2200, MACD indicated a SELL.

Going by the history, MACD & ADX crossovers had given accurate BUY signals. SELL signals are, however, a bit delayed.

50% Fib is around 1800 (rounded). This Fib value can be deviated from the point the lower value is chosen to draw the Fib. I just chose a point where an uptrend is started.

Now at 1950, ADX BUY crossover signal is visible. But still MACD has not shown anything.
At 1950, we can also see there's this pullback support line from the previous run. I'd wait to see..

NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) - Page 3 Nest_o10

48NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) - Page 3 Empty Re: NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) on Sat Oct 05, 2013 10:34 am

rainmaker


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@dudi wrote:some say NEST share price will reach Rs15000 one day
Don't get too optimistic about NEST

NEST market cap in rupees 104b which you can convert to a US$ figure ....

Cadbury (all worldwide operations) was sold for US$19b to Kraft.
Fonterra market cap is around US$9b

.... go figure Razz 





49NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) - Page 3 Empty Re: NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) on Sat Oct 05, 2013 10:36 am

rainmaker


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Note that in the above Buffet holds 8% of what used to be called Kraft - now known as Mondelez International (Cadbury and National Milk and Kraft Corporation)

50NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) - Page 3 Empty Re: NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) on Sat Oct 05, 2013 11:39 am

Dileepa


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
TAH, small,
It is always interesting to see the views of other technical analysts
and thank you for the interesting inputs study 

TAH, did you considered the trade volume when breaking support level 2000.
Because NEST is giving a lot of false sell signals recently.
NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) - Page 3 Nest_s10
All these red circles are false sell signals generated due to couple of low volume trades.
Most of the time dip was momentarily.

NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) - Page 3 Nest_n10
I have been trying to refine the neural network, but without a success.
Neural network do work for many counters as it learn with the time.
But NEST is an exceptional case.
So be careful when trading NEST on signals.
I failed miserably, and that made me even more curious.
Therefore I'm holding this possibly for the life time. scratch

51NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) - Page 3 Empty Re: NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) on Sat Oct 05, 2013 12:04 pm

Dileepa


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@rainmaker wrote:
@dudi wrote:some say NEST share price will reach Rs15000 one day
Don't get too optimistic about NEST

NEST market cap in rupees 104b which you can convert to a US$ figure ....

Cadbury (all worldwide operations) was sold for US$19b to Kraft.
Fonterra market cap is around US$9b

.... go figure Razz 
rainmaker,
Sorry I could not understand what you meant to say.
What is the relevance of that sale, Fonterra and Buffet's holding to NEST scratch 
Can you elaborate a bit?

Although NEST does not give a break down on earnings,
It is mainly Milk & Coconut which contribute to profits in SL.
Monthly milk purchase of NEST is about 7Million liters.
All others combined value is less than 1Million liters.
(Not 100%sure, Highland is less than 200K)
It is same for Coconut Milk powder.
Coupled that with zero long term liabilities,
I think NEST is very safe and sound investment.

dudi,
That is a astronomically high figure.
Would like to know who said that and in what time frame?
Looking at the growth rate of last 10 years,
I recon that in 2019 NEST will come close to that figure.

52NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) - Page 3 Empty Re: NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) on Sun Oct 06, 2013 6:09 am

smallville

smallville
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Dileepa,

Can u also include or make some alterations in ur simulator to have the following, if its possible;

1) Enter initial investment and date quantity
2) Cash in hand and averaging to have "NO" value in case no more cash infusion
2) to have a buy/sell price box if we buy/sell omiting the signals of the system Wink

For some counter like REEF (I just checked it cuz of hype..) the strategies are not working.. May I know what buy/sell strategy (50 day MA vs 14 day, MACD - RSI - SAR combined, etc..)

Have u tested different strategies to diff counters?

NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) - Page 3 Reef1910

NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) - Page 3 Reef10

Thanks.. Your tool is great.. If one have time, he/she can master the art of buy/sell for best working counters out of this Wink

53NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) - Page 3 Empty Re: NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) on Sun Oct 06, 2013 1:31 pm

Dileepa


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@smallville wrote:Dileepa,

Can u also include or make some alterations in ur simulator to have the following, if its possible;

1) Enter initial investment and date quantity
2) Cash in hand and averaging to have "NO" value in case no more cash infusion
3) to have a buy/sell price box if we buy/sell omiting the signals of the system Wink
Thanks for the suggestion.
1) & 2) is possible.
Need some time to think about 3) as it involves a lot of what if scenarios. study 
Will update this later.

@smallville wrote:
For some counter like REEF (I just checked it cuz of hype..) the strategies are not working.. May I know what buy/sell strategy (50 day MA vs 14 day, MACD - RSI - SAR combined, etc..)

Have u tested different strategies to diff counters?
Yes I'm aware of the problem.
It is very difficult to have a universal signal generator.
As we discussed here ↓ it is better to test different strategies and identify which works for what scratch 
http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t23436-rsi-as-per-yahoo#140358

Signal generator in DFN sniffer use a combination of MA, RSI & some machine learning.
If you are interested, here is a sample code for DFN without machine learning part.

//------------------------------------------------------------Start
DataArray LMA = MovingAverage(Close, 20, Simple); // Simple 20 day MA of close price
DataArray SMA = MovingAverage(Close, 5, Simple);  // Short Moving Average
DataArray LMAyest = ref(LMA,-1); // Long MA of yesterday
DataArray SMAyest = ref(SMA,-1);
DataArray LMA_2;
DataArray SMA_2;
DataArray LMAyest_2;
DataArray SMAyest_2;
DataArray LMA_3;
DataArray SMA_3;
DataArray LMAyest_3;
DataArray SMAyest_3;
DataArray BuyP;
DataArray Buy_L;
DataArray Buy_N;
DataArray SellP;
DataArray BarCount;
DataArray BuyBarCount;
DataArray SellBarCount;
DataArray Period = 0;

plot(Close,Orange,Solid,1.0); // Daily close price plot
// Sell Signal
if ((LMAyest < SMAyest) and (SMA < LMA)) then
// Search for previous Buy signal and fetch the Buy Price
for(int i = 120; i > 1; i = i-1) do
LMA_2 = ref(LMA,-(i-1));
SMA_2 = ref(SMA,-(i-1));
LMAyest_2 = ref(LMA,-i);
SMAyest_2 = ref(SMA,-i);
if((LMAyest_2 > SMAyest_2) and (SMA_2 > LMA_2)) then
BuyP = ref(Close,-i); // For safety check
end
end
SellP = Close;
end

// Buy Signal
if ((LMAyest > SMAyest) and (SMA > LMA)) then
// Search for previous Buy signal and fetch the Buy Price
for(int i = 120; i > 1; i = i-1) do
LMA_2 = ref(LMA,-(i-1));
SMA_2 = ref(SMA,-(i-1));
LMAyest_2 = ref(LMA,-i);
SMAyest_2 = ref(SMA,-i);
if((LMAyest_2 > SMAyest_2) and (SMA_2 > LMA_2)) then
Buy_L = ref(Close,-i);
for (int j = (i-1); j > 1; j = j-1) do
LMA_3 = ref(LMA,-(j-1))
SMA_3 = ref(SMA,-(j-1))
LMAyest_3 = ref(LMA,-j)
SMAyest_3 = ref(SMA,-j)
if((LMAyest_3 > SMAyest_3) and (SMA_3 > LMA_3)) then
Buy_N = ref(Close,-j);
end
end
end
if (Buy_N < Buy_L) then
BuyP = Buy_N;
else
BuyP = Buy_L;
end
end
end

// Real Signal
drawsymbol((LMAyest > SMAyest) and (SMA > LMA) and (Close < BuyP),BuyArrow,Green,Below); // Buy
drawsymbol((LMAyest < SMAyest) and (SMA < LMA) and ((BuyP*1.1) < SellP),SellArrow,Red,Above); // Sell
//------------------------------------------------------------End
1. Go to Tools -> Indicator Builder from DFN Charting.
2. Copy and past above code.
3. Click Test, Build and Save (Give a name)
4. Right Click on chart area -> Indicators -> Custom Indicators & Select above
Modify the code as necessary.

Ex: To insert a RSI limit so that it will not generate a BUY signal if RSI is above 80,
change the buy signal as follows
drawsymbol((LMAyest > SMAyest) and (SMA > LMA) and (Close < BuyP) and (RelativeStrengthIndex(Close, 14) < 80),BuyArrow,Green,Below); // Buy

You know the code, have fun Smile

54NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) - Page 3 Empty Re: NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) on Mon Oct 14, 2013 7:20 pm

Gaja


Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
At the last moment sellers was there for 1,900/= any specific reason?

55NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) - Page 3 Empty Re: NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) on Wed Oct 16, 2013 7:13 pm

mark

mark
Expert
Expert
@sikka- ya the whole mkt moving when i moved to nest ;(

@small- api walak haruwoth eketh gembek ;(

@gaja-check PM

@dileepa- wow thats an overall picture, I love the way told "NEST is not going to run" I love that quote, very clear from a experienced investor Smile Smile


@TAH- ammo... NEST 1250 means ASI at around 5000 wagene.. Wink . Anyway your comment is very valuable Smile

@glad- ya i also hear the price hike of milk by over 100rs

@dudi- Onna man kiwe na hode Razz

@"rain rain go away "/ mono Wink - You always have to pay for good will if you going to buy it. Wink btw point taken.


My action- i was watching the order book , you may see how the 100 qty orders popped at 1990,1991,1992,1993 and so on, and also some pushing downs with odd lots. So sold all at little loss at 1990. Market went up but NEST was silent.


This thread is being very useful to me and the analysis provided was helpful. so tnx my lovely friends. All point of you taken to my consideration Smile Smile

thanxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx Smile



56NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) - Page 3 Empty Re: NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) on Thu Oct 17, 2013 1:21 am

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
Different shares will get active during different times in the market.

IEST ,CTC already had its time for big movement ( I am talking 40% and above movements). Looking at current prices and the journey they had , NEST Rs 600 and CTC Rs 350 , it is time they take rest and let other shares move.

If you study history of share like this, you will notice a pattern.

Ofcourse from time to time there will be some play with these shares too affect the CSE index ;-) But they don;t have any room to jump another 40-50% soon unless some magic happens.

57NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) - Page 3 Empty Re: NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) on Fri Oct 25, 2013 5:08 pm

mark

mark
Expert
Expert
@slstock wrote:Different shares will get active during different times in the market.

IEST ,CTC already had its time for big movement ( I am talking 40% and above movements). Looking at current prices and the journey they had , NEST Rs 600 and CTC Rs 350 , it is time they take rest and let other shares move.

If you study history of share like this, you will notice a pattern.

Ofcourse from time to time there will be some play with these shares too affect the CSE index ;-) But they don;t have any room to jump another 40-50% soon unless some magic happens.
Me too feel their time is over for this year, so there will be new giants popping as you said Smile

58NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) - Page 3 Empty Re: NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) on Fri Dec 06, 2013 11:31 am

mark

mark
Expert
Expert
Finally it started to run Sad Sad

damn history repeat again and again Sad Sad Seems NEST,CTC,JKH going to lift the market Sad

Where is the next target for NEST now? 2500?

59NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) - Page 3 Empty Re: NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) on Fri Dec 06, 2013 11:34 am

dhanurrox


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@mark wrote:Finally it started to run SadSad

damn history repeat again and again SadSad Seems NEST,CTC,JKH going to lift the market Sad

Where is the next target for NEST now? 2500?

I can guess why it's up,Did you sell your quantity?Very Happy 

60NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) - Page 3 Empty Re: NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) on Fri Dec 06, 2013 11:41 am

mark

mark
Expert
Expert
@ dhanurox, i didnt hold any upto today, Finally my buy order at 2000 got filled partially Sad , btw sold back at 2250 Smile

didnt thought it can clear the whole orders at 2250., hmm

Feel im wrong and it may run more ;(

61NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) - Page 3 Empty Re: NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) on Fri Dec 06, 2013 11:49 am

sashimaal

sashimaal
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
dhanurrox, what's your guess?

[/quote]I can guess why it's up,Did you sell your quantity?Very Happy [/quote]

62NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) - Page 3 Empty NEST manipulation done by EPF? on Mon Dec 09, 2013 5:34 pm

mark

mark
Expert
Expert
EPF is the seller of 41,800 shares on august 16, 2013 at the price of 2500 LKR

The buyer was HSBC int-SSBT


Anyone aware?

Today what i saw is they tried to keep the price at 2250 without pushing up or down.


After some days another crossing to happen at 2500?


cheers!

Note- Dont have single share Smile

63NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) - Page 3 Empty Re: NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) on Tue Dec 10, 2013 9:06 am

D.G.Dayaratne


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Who is behind EPF decisions ?

64NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) - Page 3 Empty Re: NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) on Tue Dec 10, 2013 9:32 am

Backstage

Backstage
Moderator
Moderator
The person who appointed the governor ?

65NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) - Page 3 Empty Re: NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) on Tue Dec 10, 2013 11:00 am

Leon


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@D.G.Dayaratne wrote:Who is behind EPF decisions ?

I think there's a special committee to make such decisions.

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