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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » ECONOMIC CHRONICLE™ » Sri Lanka Economy

Sri Lanka Economy

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76Sri Lanka Economy - Page 4 Empty Re: Sri Lanka Economy Mon Feb 10, 2020 5:36 pm

Ekanayake90


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

Sri Lanka imports to fall in 2020, external account to improve: CB Governor
Monday February 10, 2020 17:16:04

ECONOMYNEXT – Sri Lanka will see a slow improvement in external accounts, trade deficit will continue to fall in 2020, and there will be no adverse development in foreign exchange reserves, Central Bank Governor W D Lakshaman said.

“The contraction in imports is likely to continue this year,” he told a business forum organized by Ceylon Chamber of Commerce in Colombo.

“The 2019 decline in the trade deficit is expected to continue in 2020.”

There will be ‘exchange rate stability at competitive levels,” he said.
Capital flows will also improve in 2020. There will more confidence in political stability among individuals and businesses he said.

“Foreign capital flows, portfolio and direct investment, are expected to grow with improving business confidence,” he said.

“The workers’ remittances, are expected to remain more or less stable without making significant gains.”

Sri Lanka economy will recover close to 4 percent in 2020, Lakshman said backed by improving business confidence, low and stable inflation. Sri Lanka has taken both fiscal and monetary measures to boost growth he said. (Colombo/Feb10/2020)

77Sri Lanka Economy - Page 4 Empty Re: Sri Lanka Economy Wed Feb 12, 2020 4:18 pm

Ekanayake90


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

ECONOMYNEXT- Sri Lanka’s industrial activitiy slowed in December from a month earlier, with a fall in apparel manufacturing, the state statistics office said.

The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) compiled by the Census and Statistics Department fell 0.2 percent to in December to 108.6 points.

An index value of over 100 denotes growth from 2015, the IIP’s base year.

In the past, the IIP has marginally grown in December.

The fall came mainly due to a 9.8 percent fall in apparel manufacturing, which is Sri Lanka’s leading export.

The apparel industry contributes to a fifth of the industrial production, which is the second highest in the country.

Apparel exports had fallen 1.7 percent in December. The Sri Lanka Apparel Exporters Association had said exports would face a downturn till April, especially due to Brexit.

Food manufacturing, which is the largest industrial segment comprising a third of the total, grew 7.2 percent during December, amid Christmas holidays.

Non-metallic minerals and refined petroleum production, each of which contribute 7-8 percent to industrial activity, grew 1.8 percent and 20.4 percent respectively.

Refined petroleum production recorded the highest growth during the month.

Rubber and plastic making, which is the fifth largest industrial segment, grew 1.1 percent.

The highest fall in December were from textile manufacturing, down 33.9 percent and pharmaceutical production, down 32.5 percent.

Meanwhile, the IIP for the fourth quarter of 2019 grew 0.7 percent to 109.8 points from a year earlier with higher food production. (Colombo/Feb12/2020)

78Sri Lanka Economy - Page 4 Empty Re: Sri Lanka Economy Thu Feb 13, 2020 9:33 am

Ekanayake90


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

"Sri Lanka tax revenues, economy to pick up from second half of 2020: Treasury Secy"

ECONOMYNEXT – Sri Lanka’s state revenues will pick up in the second half of 2020, as tax cuts and lower interest rates expand disposable incomes, investment and economic activity, Treasury Secretary S R Attygalle has said.

“While there could be an initial decrease in on government incomes it is expected that incomes will pick up in especially for the second half of 2020,” Attygalle told member of Sri Lanka’s Exporters Association Wednesday night.

“Clearly there many ways of reviving economies but no economy has revived with high tax rates in times of trouble.

“In fact high tax rates get economies into trouble. Hence the tax reforms announced in December 2019 was aimed at simplifying the tax system increase the disposable income of tax payers and thereby stimulating growth.”

He said estimates of tax losses made by some were overblown because economies were dynamic and not static.

“I believe that there are people who believe ceteris paribus (all other conditions remaining the same) actually exists,” he quipped.

Rate cuts and falling interest rates will also help drive economic activity. Stronger growth will in turn help reduce bad loans at banks, he said.

This year the Maha rice harvest is also expected to be strong, which will help incomes of the rural economy.

In 2019, economic growth is expected to have fallen to 2.6 percent of gross domestic product by the International Monetary Fund, which is projecting a revival to 3.7 percent.

Deficit

Attygalle said the government had already undertaken “significant expenditure rationalization” no new office space had been rented, no vehicles bought. Cost cutting measures will be monitored during the year, he said.

In 2020 the overall budget deficit is expected to be around 7.5 percent of gross domestic product, he said.

The deficit will in part be driven by 200 billion rupees of unpaid bill and unaccounted expense from last year, which will be paid in 2020, he said.

“And when such bills are paid and accounted for in 2020 the budget deficit which was to be around 5 percent this year will now increase to almost 7.5 percent,” he said.

The IMF said tax cuts and arrears from 2019 could drive the deficit to 7.9 percent of GDP.

2019 revenues are estimated to be around 1,800 billion rupees, he said from an initial estimate of around 2,400 trillion.

The IMF revised down the revenue for 2019 to 1,975 billion rupees in a November review after a soft-peg of the rupee with the US dollar collapsed from 153 to 182 to the US dollar in 2018 amid liquidity injections.

Currency collapse and corrective measures lead to output shocks and revenue shortfalls and credit contracts.

State owned enterprises have been told to ‘clean up their act’ he said, with significant improvements in the quality of their board of directors, though not perfect.

Performance indicators and a code of conduct were being devised for SOEs. (Colombo/Feb13/2020)

79Sri Lanka Economy - Page 4 Empty Re: Sri Lanka Economy Thu Feb 13, 2020 12:37 pm

KavinduTM


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

@Ekanayake90 wrote:"Sri Lanka tax revenues, economy to pick up from second half of 2020: Treasury Secy"

ECONOMYNEXT – Sri Lanka’s state revenues will pick up in the second half of 2020, as tax cuts and lower interest rates expand disposable incomes, investment and economic activity, Treasury Secretary S R Attygalle has said.

“While there could be an initial decrease in on government incomes it is expected that incomes will pick up in especially for the second half of 2020,” Attygalle told member of Sri Lanka’s Exporters Association Wednesday night.

“Clearly there many ways of reviving economies but no economy has revived with high tax rates in times of trouble.

“In fact high tax rates get economies into trouble. Hence the tax reforms announced in December 2019 was aimed at simplifying the tax system increase the disposable income of tax payers and thereby stimulating growth.”

He said estimates of tax losses made by some were overblown because economies were dynamic and not static.

“I believe that there are people who believe ceteris paribus (all other conditions remaining the same) actually exists,” he quipped.

Rate cuts and falling interest rates will also help drive economic activity. Stronger growth will in turn help reduce bad loans at banks, he said.

This year the Maha rice harvest is also expected to be strong, which will help incomes of the rural economy.

In 2019, economic growth is expected to have fallen to 2.6 percent of gross domestic product by the International Monetary Fund, which is projecting a revival to 3.7 percent.

Deficit

Attygalle said the government had already undertaken “significant expenditure rationalization” no new office space had been rented, no vehicles bought. Cost cutting measures will be monitored during the year, he said.

In 2020 the overall budget deficit is expected to be around 7.5 percent of gross domestic product, he said.

The deficit will in part be driven by 200 billion rupees of unpaid bill and unaccounted expense from last year, which will be paid in 2020, he said.

“And when such bills are paid and accounted for in 2020 the budget deficit which was to be around 5 percent this year will now increase to almost 7.5 percent,” he said.

The IMF said tax cuts and arrears from 2019 could drive the deficit to 7.9 percent of GDP.

2019 revenues are estimated to be around 1,800 billion rupees, he said from an initial estimate of around 2,400 trillion.

The IMF revised down the revenue for 2019 to 1,975 billion rupees in a November review after a soft-peg of the rupee with the US dollar collapsed from 153 to 182 to the US dollar in 2018 amid liquidity injections.

Currency collapse and corrective measures lead to output shocks and revenue shortfalls and credit contracts.

State owned enterprises have been told to ‘clean up their act’ he said, with significant improvements in the quality of their board of directors, though not perfect.

Performance indicators and a code of conduct were being devised for SOEs. (Colombo/Feb13/2020)

Good vision. Country is on the correct track

80Sri Lanka Economy - Page 4 Empty Re: Sri Lanka Economy Thu Feb 13, 2020 2:52 pm

Ekanayake90


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

@KavinduTM wrote:
@Ekanayake90 wrote:"Sri Lanka tax revenues, economy to pick up from second half of 2020: Treasury Secy"

ECONOMYNEXT – Sri Lanka’s state revenues will pick up in the second half of 2020, as tax cuts and lower interest rates expand disposable incomes, investment and economic activity, Treasury Secretary S R Attygalle has said.

“While there could be an initial decrease in on government incomes it is expected that incomes will pick up in especially for the second half of 2020,” Attygalle told member of Sri Lanka’s Exporters Association Wednesday night.

“Clearly there many ways of reviving economies but no economy has revived with high tax rates in times of trouble.

“In fact high tax rates get economies into trouble. Hence the tax reforms announced in December 2019 was aimed at simplifying the tax system increase the disposable income of tax payers and thereby stimulating growth.”

He said estimates of tax losses made by some were overblown because economies were dynamic and not static.

“I believe that there are people who believe ceteris paribus (all other conditions remaining the same) actually exists,” he quipped.

Rate cuts and falling interest rates will also help drive economic activity. Stronger growth will in turn help reduce bad loans at banks, he said.

This year the Maha rice harvest is also expected to be strong, which will help incomes of the rural economy.

In 2019, economic growth is expected to have fallen to 2.6 percent of gross domestic product by the International Monetary Fund, which is projecting a revival to 3.7 percent.

Deficit

Attygalle said the government had already undertaken “significant expenditure rationalization” no new office space had been rented, no vehicles bought. Cost cutting measures will be monitored during the year, he said.

In 2020 the overall budget deficit is expected to be around 7.5 percent of gross domestic product, he said.

The deficit will in part be driven by 200 billion rupees of unpaid bill and unaccounted expense from last year, which will be paid in 2020, he said.

“And when such bills are paid and accounted for in 2020 the budget deficit which was to be around 5 percent this year will now increase to almost 7.5 percent,” he said.

The IMF said tax cuts and arrears from 2019 could drive the deficit to 7.9 percent of GDP.

2019 revenues are estimated to be around 1,800 billion rupees, he said from an initial estimate of around 2,400 trillion.

The IMF revised down the revenue for 2019 to 1,975 billion rupees in a November review after a soft-peg of the rupee with the US dollar collapsed from 153 to 182 to the US dollar in 2018 amid liquidity injections.

Currency collapse and corrective measures lead to output shocks and revenue shortfalls and credit contracts.

State owned enterprises have been told to ‘clean up their act’ he said, with significant improvements in the quality of their board of directors, though not perfect.

Performance indicators and a code of conduct were being devised for SOEs. (Colombo/Feb13/2020)

Good vision. Country is on the correct track
Indeed Smile

81Sri Lanka Economy - Page 4 Empty Re: Sri Lanka Economy Thu Feb 13, 2020 2:52 pm

Ekanayake90

Ekanayake90
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

ECONOMYNEXT – Sri Lanka’s personal income tax payers will get relief up to 1.2 million rupees a year for investments in stocks and securities, housing interest, pension contributions, medical insurance and children’s education incurred within the country, the revenue office has said.

Resident tax-payers and citizens abroad are also getting 3.0 million rupees of relief of tax relief on all earnings, as part of tax cuts announced in December 2019, a notice by Sri Lanka’s Inland Revenue Department said.

Individuals will be taxed at 6 percent for the next 3.0 million rupees, 12 percent for the next 3.0 million and 18 percent on the balance.

Interest on foreign currency deposits will also be exempt from tax.

A notice by Sri Lanka’s Inland Revenue Department said terminal pension and gratuity payments up to 10 million rupees will be free from tax. The next 10 million rupees will be taxed at 6 percent, and the balance 12 percent.

Withholding tax and Pay-As-You-Earn (PAYE) on salaries, dividends, interest, discount, natural resource payment, rent, royalty, premium or retirement payment has is no longer subject to withholding tax.

But they will have to open an income tax file and report incomes quarterly.

“Those who have not registered for tax are required to register with IRD for this purpose,” the tax office said. (Colombo/Feb13/2020)

82Sri Lanka Economy - Page 4 Empty Re: Sri Lanka Economy Thu Feb 13, 2020 8:52 pm

Ekanayake90

Ekanayake90
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

@Ekanayake90 wrote:ECONOMYNEXT- Sri Lanka’s industrial activitiy slowed in December from a month earlier, with a fall in apparel manufacturing, the state statistics office said.

The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) compiled by the Census and Statistics Department fell 0.2 percent to in December to 108.6 points.

An index value of over 100 denotes growth from 2015, the IIP’s base year.

In the past, the IIP has marginally grown in December.

The fall came mainly due to a 9.8 percent fall in apparel manufacturing, which is Sri Lanka’s leading export.

The apparel industry contributes to a fifth of the industrial production, which is the second highest in the country.

Apparel exports had fallen 1.7 percent in December. The Sri Lanka Apparel Exporters Association had said exports would face a downturn till April, especially due to Brexit.

Food manufacturing, which is the largest industrial segment comprising a third of the total, grew 7.2 percent during December, amid Christmas holidays.

Non-metallic minerals and refined petroleum production, each of which contribute 7-8 percent to industrial activity, grew 1.8 percent and 20.4 percent respectively.

Refined petroleum production recorded the highest growth during the month.

Rubber and plastic making, which is the fifth largest industrial segment, grew 1.1 percent.

The highest fall in December were from textile manufacturing, down 33.9 percent and pharmaceutical production, down 32.5 percent.

Meanwhile, the IIP for the fourth quarter of 2019 grew 0.7 percent to 109.8 points from a year earlier with higher food production. (Colombo/Feb12/2020)

Non-metallic minerals and refined petroleum production, each of which contribute 7-8 percent to industrial activity, grew 1.8 percent and 20.4 percent respectively.

Refined petroleum production recorded the highest growth during the month.[/font]


"LLUB" ✨

83Sri Lanka Economy - Page 4 Empty Re: Sri Lanka Economy Wed Feb 19, 2020 10:09 am

Ekanayake90

Ekanayake90
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

Minor impact on SL as Moody’s retain growth forecast
Wednesday, 19 February 2020 02:06


Moody’s forecast coronavirus to have a minor impact on Sri Lankan economy and that is too only in 2020.Nevertheless Moody’s has retained 3.3% GDP growth forecast for 2020 unchanged whilst for 2021 it is 4.4%. For the Maldives growth forecast has been downgraded to 5.6% whilst retaining 6% forecast next year.

84Sri Lanka Economy - Page 4 Empty Re: Sri Lanka Economy Wed Feb 19, 2020 10:57 am

Teller

Teller
Moderator
Moderator

Invest in Export oriented businesses. Today also rupee down. Im sure it will surpass 190/-, in such situation additional 10% margin for export companies


_________________




Teller said is said..

85Sri Lanka Economy - Page 4 Empty Re: Sri Lanka Economy Wed Feb 19, 2020 10:58 am

Promoney


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

Sri Lanka Economy - Page 4 Screen95

86Sri Lanka Economy - Page 4 Empty Re: Sri Lanka Economy Wed Feb 19, 2020 12:18 pm

Ekanayake90

Ekanayake90
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

ආයෝජනයට හොඳම රට බවට ශ්‍රී ලංකාව පත්කිරීම තම අභිප්‍රාය බව ජනපති පවසයි
February, 19, 2020


ආයෝජනයට සුදුසු හොඳම රට බවට ශ්‍රී ලංකාව පත්කිරීම තම අභිප්‍රාය බව ජනාධිපති ගෝඨාභය රාජපක්ෂ මැතිතුමා පවසයි.
පරිසරය ආරක්ෂා කරමින්, රට සංවර්ධනය කෙරෙන ක්‍රමවේදයකට නිතිමය පසුබිම සැකසිය යුතු බව ද පරිසර සහ වනජීවි අමාත්‍යාංශයට අයත් ආයතනවල නිලධාරීන් සමග ඊයේ (18) පස්වරුවේ ජනාධිපති කාර්යාලයේ පැවති හමුවේ දී ජනාධිපතිතුමා සඳහන් කළේය.

නීති රීති, අණ පනත් සහ රෙගුලාසි වර්තමානයට ගැළපෙන අයුරින් සංශෝධනයට සියලු ආයතන එක්ව ක්‍රියා කළ යුතු බවට ජනාධිපතිතුමා උපදෙස් දුන්නේය. පරිසරය ආරක්ෂා කරගෙන ජනතාවට ප්‍රතිලාභ ගෙන දෙන ක්‍රම සැලසුම් කිරීම නිලධාරීන්ගේ වගකීමකි.

බලපත්‍ර නිකුත් කිරීමේ දී ගතවන කාලය හැකි උපරිමයෙන් අඩු කර විදේශීය මෙන්ම දේශීය ආයෝජකයන් පෙළඹවීමට සහ දිරිමත් කිරීමට පියවර ගන්නැයි ද ජනාධිපතිතුමා උපදෙස් දුන්නේය.

වසර කිහිපයකට පෙර අනුමැතිය ඉල්ලා ඇති උතුරු පළාතේ ජලජීවි උද්‍යාන ව්‍යාපෘතියට මෙතෙක් අවසර ලැබී නැත. ඒ පිළිබදව අවධානය යොමු කළ ජනාධිපතිතුමා ජෛව විවිධත්වය ආරක්ෂා කර ගනිමින් අදාළ ව්‍යාපෘතිය ක්‍රියාත්මක කිරීමට කඩිනම් පියවර ගන්නැයි දැනුම් දුන්නේය. එමගින් රැකියා අවස්ථා රැසක් බිහි වේ. ප්‍රශ්න විසඳා සංහිඳියාව ඇති කිරීමට ඇති හොදම මග එය බව ද ජනාධිපතිතුමා පැවසීය.

නීති රීති සම්පාදනය කළ යුත්තේ පරිසරය ආරක්ෂා කිරීමට පමණක් නොව මිනිසුන් ජීවත් කරවීම ද අරමුණු කර ගෙන යැයි ජනාධිපතිතුමා පෙන්වා දුන්නේය.

අමාත්‍ය එස්.එම්. චන්ද්‍රසේන, රාජ්‍ය අමාත්‍ය ජයන්ත සමරවීර මහත්වරු සහ ජනාධිපති ලේකම් ආචාර්ය පී.බී. ජයසුන්දර මහතා ඇතුළු නිලධාරිහූ සාකච්ඡාවට එක්ව සිටියහ.

ThilinaM

ThilinaM
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics

I was central bank figure for Inflation is 4.1 for 2019. some day officials made this figures should be punished as teason to country.

inflation is like 50%+ in 2019. see the vegitable and rice prices.

thease central bank basters getting our tax money 200k - 1mn salarys and raping the citizens .

some day thease basterds should be punished even they are ritired

88Sri Lanka Economy - Page 4 Empty Re: Sri Lanka Economy Wed Feb 19, 2020 2:03 pm

Teller

Teller
Moderator
Moderator

Correct , average inflation over 10%


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Teller said is said..

89Sri Lanka Economy - Page 4 Empty Re: Sri Lanka Economy Wed Feb 19, 2020 5:58 pm

ColomboCSE


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

Yes totally correct Thilina and Teller

 I was using 15% (Political rick,inflation and currency depreciation)

90Sri Lanka Economy - Page 4 Empty Re: Sri Lanka Economy Wed Feb 19, 2020 6:46 pm

Teller

Teller
Moderator
Moderator

Thats the reason most of the companies are under value based on Assets based. (Normally dont weigh on this even 5%l))))DCFM


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Teller said is said..

91Sri Lanka Economy - Page 4 Empty Re: Sri Lanka Economy Wed Feb 19, 2020 7:31 pm

Teller

Teller
Moderator
Moderator

Based on my Calculation, Sri Lankas 2019 inflation range between 16.5 to 21.8%.
Below guys must cry..

Those who put 16.5% or below Fixed deposits.
Those who sold their Lands.
Those who exchange their foreign currencies/deposits etc..

These guys to be happy...
Ill update later..


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Teller said is said..

KavinduTM

KavinduTM
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

President Gotabaya Rajapaksa has directed Provincial Councils and Local Authorities not to charge any new taxes or fees and simplify them within 30 days, his office said.

The administration is trying to simplify the country’s entire tax and non-tax system in a bid to make public life easy, reduce transaction costs and reduce corruption and irregularities, Secretary to the President P B Jayasundera had told Governor and Chief Secretaries.

“It has been observed that Provincial Councils and Local Authorities continued to expand various taxes, rates and levies undermining the Government’s overall development vision and underlying strategy”, Jayasundera was quoted as saying.

“The Government appreciates the revenue concerns of devolved administration but highlights the need to be logical in fiscal devolution and revenue sharing arrangements in a coherent National Policy Framework.”

Charging their own taxes, allow local government bodies some financial independence.

Sub-national authorities are given motor vehicle license fees and several other sources of revenue in addition to a block grant from the central government for the work they do.

They may also charge building permits and other fees. (Colombo/Feb19/2020)

93Sri Lanka Economy - Page 4 Empty Re: Sri Lanka Economy Wed Feb 19, 2020 8:17 pm

kasun_gimhana

kasun_gimhana
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

@Teller, Please give us,  your base of calculation. The real situation is land, building, vehicle prices going down or stand still nobody buying those assets.

94Sri Lanka Economy - Page 4 Empty Re: Sri Lanka Economy Wed Feb 19, 2020 9:36 pm

Teller

Teller
Moderator
Moderator

Vehicle may down, who says land building price drop. Building prices can drop due to depreciation . But there will not be a building with out land. There is no land depreciation except any rare case.


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Teller said is said..

95Sri Lanka Economy - Page 4 Empty Re: Sri Lanka Economy Wed Feb 19, 2020 9:38 pm

Teller

Teller
Moderator
Moderator

What Is Inflation?
Inflation is a quantitative measure of the rate at which the average price level of a basket of selected goods and services in an economy increases over a period of time. It is the constant rise in the general level of prices where a unit of currency buys less than it did in prior periods. Often expressed as a percentage, inflation indicates a decrease in the purchasing power of a nation’s currency.
Inflation is the rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services is rising and, consequently, the purchasing power of currency is falling.
Inflation is classified into three types: Demand-Pull inflation, Cost-Push inflation, and Built-In inflation.
Most commonly used inflation indexes are the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Wholesale Price Index (WPI).
Inflation can be viewed positively or negatively depending on the individual viewpoint.
Those with tangible assets, like property or stocked commodities, may like to see some inflation as that raises the value of their assets.
People holding cash may not like inflation, as it erodes the value of their cash holdings.
Ideally, an optimum level of inflation is required to promote spending to a certain extent instead of saving, thereby nurturing economic growth.
Understanding Inflation
As prices rise, a single unit of currency loses value as it buys fewer goods and services. This loss of purchasing power impacts the general cost of living for the common public which ultimately leads to a deceleration in economic growth. The consensus view among economists is that sustained inflation occurs when a nation's money supply growth outpaces economic growth.

96Sri Lanka Economy - Page 4 Empty Re: Sri Lanka Economy Wed Feb 19, 2020 9:42 pm

Teller

Teller
Moderator
Moderator

උද්ධමනය යනු කුමක්ද?
උද්ධමනය යනු ආර්ථිකයක තෝරාගත් භාණ්ඩ හා සේවා කූඩයක සාමාන්‍ය මිල මට්ටම යම් කාල සීමාවක් තුළ ඉහළ යන අනුපාතයේ ප්‍රමාණාත්මක මිනුමකි. එය පෙර කාල පරිච්ඡේදයන්ට වඩා අඩු මුදලකින් මුදල් ඒකකයක් මිලට ගන්නා සාමාන්‍ය මට්ටමේ සාමාන්‍ය මිල ඉහළ යාමයි. බොහෝ විට ප්‍රතිශතයක් ලෙස ප්‍රකාශ වන උද්ධමනය මඟින් රටක මුදල් මිලදී ගැනීමේ ශක්තිය අඩුවීමක් පෙන්නුම් කරයි.
උද්ධමනය යනු භාණ්ඩ හා සේවා සඳහා සාමාන්‍ය මිල ගණන් ඉහළ යන අනුපාතය වන අතර එහි ප්‍රති cash ලයක් ලෙස මුදල් මිලදී ගැනීමේ ශක්තිය පහත වැටේ.
උද්ධමනය වර්ග තුනකට වර්ගීකරණය කර ඇත: ඉල්ලුම-අදින්න උද්ධමනය, පිරිවැය තල්ලු කිරීමේ උද්ධමනය සහ ගොඩනඟන ලද උද්ධමනය.
බහුලව භාවිතා වන උද්ධමන දර්ශක වන්නේ පාරිභෝගික මිල දර්ශකය (සීපීඅයි) සහ තොග මිල දර්ශකය (ඩබ්ලිව්පීඅයි) ය.
පුද්ගල දෘෂ්ටිකෝණය අනුව උද්ධමනය ධනාත්මක හෝ නිෂේධාත්මකව දැකිය හැකිය.
දේපල හෝ තොග වෙළඳ භාණ්ඩ වැනි ස්පර්ශ්‍ය වත්කම් ඇති අය, ඔවුන්ගේ වත්කම්වල වටිනාකම ඉහළ නංවන බැවින් යම් උද්ධමනයක් දැකීමට කැමති විය හැකිය.
මුදල් ඇති පුද්ගලයින් උද්ධමනයට අකමැති විය හැකිය, මන්ද එය ඔවුන්ගේ මුදල් රඳවා ගැනීමේ වටිනාකම ඛාදනය කරයි.
ඉතා මැනවින්, උද්ධමනය ප්‍රශස්ත මට්ටමක තබා ගැනීම අවශ්‍ය වන්නේ වියදම් ඉතිරි කිරීම වෙනුවට යම් ප්‍රමාණයකට ප්‍රවර්ධනය කිරීම සහ එමඟින් ආර්ථික වර්ධනය පෝෂණය කිරීම ය.
උද්ධමනය අවබෝධ කර ගැනීම
මිල ඉහළ යන විට, භාණ්ඩ හා සේවා අඩුවෙන් මිලදී ගන්නා විට එක් මුදල් ඒකකයක වටිනාකම නැති වේ. මෙම මිලදී ගැනීමේ ශක්තිය නැතිවීම පොදු ජනතාවගේ සාමාන්‍ය ජීවන වියදමට බලපාන අතර එය අවසානයේ ආර්ථික වර්ධනයේ පිරිහීමට හේතු වේ. ආර්ථික විද්‍යා ists යින් අතර ඇති එකඟතාව නම්, රටක මුදල් සැපයුම් වර්ධනය ආර්ථික වර්ධනය අභිබවා යන විට තිරසාර උද්ධමනය ඇති වන බවයි.


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Teller said is said..

ThilinaM

ThilinaM
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics

forigners are selling . CSE epa kiyala pana kadagena duwana seen ekak tiyenne.
doller z dipriciating fast.

i have a prediction doller will pass 300 lkr 4 times quickly than you think.

98Sri Lanka Economy - Page 4 Empty Re: Sri Lanka Economy Thu Feb 27, 2020 1:28 pm

KavinduTM

KavinduTM
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

@ThilinaM wrote:forigners are selling . CSE epa kiyala pana kadagena duwana seen ekak tiyenne.
doller z dipriciating fast.

i have a prediction doller will pass 300 lkr 4 times quickly than you think.

At least it won't even touch 200/=

99Sri Lanka Economy - Page 4 Empty Re: Sri Lanka Economy Thu Feb 27, 2020 1:28 pm

KavinduTM

KavinduTM
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

@ThilinaM wrote:forigners are selling . CSE epa kiyala pana kadagena duwana seen ekak tiyenne.
doller z dipriciating fast.

i have a prediction doller will pass 300 lkr 4 times quickly than you think.

Don't panic

100Sri Lanka Economy - Page 4 Empty Re: Sri Lanka Economy Thu Feb 27, 2020 1:33 pm

Teller

Teller
Moderator
Moderator

uSD /LKR will be 191/=


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Teller said is said..

101Sri Lanka Economy - Page 4 Empty Re: Sri Lanka Economy Mon Mar 02, 2020 8:38 pm

Quibit


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

Sri Lanka climbs in misery index in 2019 after currency collapse

ECONOMYNEXT – Sri Lanka’s economic misery has increase in 2019, according to an annual global index compiled by a Johns Hopkins economist Steve Hanke, as the island’s growth slipped and inflation and interest rates climbed after the latest currency collapse.

Sri Lanka’s misery index score climbed to 17.9 points in 2019 from 16 in 2018, according to the latest index published in National Review, a US based publication.

The rupee collapsed from 153 to 182 to the US dollar in 2018, amid liquidity injections to keep down rates.

In 2018, Sri Lanka’s misery index number fell to 16 points from 18.9 points in 2017 as the economy recovered from a previous currency collapse.

Sri Lanka’s tourism sector was also hit by suicide bombings in April 2019.

Hanke’s Annual Misery Index (HAMI) is compiled by adding unemployment, inflation and bank lending rates, and substracting the percentage change in real gross domestic per capita.

The original misery index had been compiled by economist Arthur Okun to provide then US President Lyndon Johnson an easy to understand view of the economy, using only inflation and unemployment.

It had then been modified by economist Robert Barrow of Harvard, which had been further refined by Hanke.

Sri Lanka’s misery index has been climbing since monetary instability worsened after 2015, when the index was around 15.

Sri Lanka’s unemployment relatively low and stable and lending rates has usually been the main driver of index changes in recent years.

Sri Lanka place worsened to the 31 st most miserable countries out of 95 in 2019, from 35 in 2018.

The relative ranking changes depending on how other countries perform. The relative ranking may worsen depending on how others perform, even if there is an absolute improvement in the index number.

In 2019, conditions in Hong Kong, a country with a high degree of monetary stability and usually a strong performer also plunged.

Countries that experience increases in the index usually see government’s change, while those that to not or improve, find it easier to get re-elected.

“Japan takes the prize as the world’s least miserable country, moving up from the third-least miserable in 2018,” writes Hanke.

“It’s no surprise that prime minister Shinzo Abe remains firmly in the saddle.”

“Hungary delivers yet another stunner. It ranks as the second-least miserable country in the world.

While the European Union and the international elites have thrown everything they can at Prime Minister Viktor Orban, it’s easy to see why he commands a strong following at home. After all, the Magyars held the second-happiest spot in the world in 2018 as well.”

Among the ‘most miserable’ countries the index are countries with the worst soft-pegged central banks in the world, which are found in Latin America.

Predictably Venezuela ranked first in 2019, with 7,459 points with inflation driving misery.

Argentina came second with 1,361 points. Iran followed with 75 points.

“Venezuela holds the inglorious title of the most miserable country in the world in 2019, as it did in 2018, 2017, 2016, and 2015,” writes Hanke.

“Inflation, while still the world’s highest, came down. On the other hand, the unemployment rate surged to 24 percent from 14.9 percent in 2018, while GDP per capita took a dive from -16.5 percent per year to -32.2 percent per year.

“Argentina held down the second-most miserable spot after yet another peso crisis,” Hanke said. “Since its founding, Argentina has endured numerous economic crises.

“Most can be laid at the feet of domestic mismanagement and currency problems (read: currency collapses). Such crises have occurred in 1876, 1890, 1914, 1930, 1952, 1958, 1967, 1975, 1985, 1989, 2001, 2018, and 2019, to name but a few.

“Until Argentina dumps the beleaguered peso and replaces it with the U.S. dollar, it will be, well . . . miserable.”

Currency crises have come thick and fast after a soft-pegged central bank was set up in 1934. (Colombo/Mar02/2020)

https://economynext.com/sri-lanka-climbs-in-misery-index-in-2019-after-currency-collapse-54809/

102Sri Lanka Economy - Page 4 Empty Re: Sri Lanka Economy Mon Mar 02, 2020 8:47 pm

Teller

Teller
Moderator
Moderator

Rupee is life time low today in the black market.


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Teller said is said..

103Sri Lanka Economy - Page 4 Empty Re: Sri Lanka Economy Thu Mar 05, 2020 4:10 pm

GOSL

GOSL
Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic

Sri Lanka could finalize billion dollar plus China loan within weeks
Thursday March 5, 2020 12:48:33

ECONOMYEXT – Sri Lanka is making good progress with loans of more than a billion US dollars loan from China Development Bank, which may be finalized within weeks, Central Bank Deputy Governor Nandalal Weerasinghe said.

Discussions centered around a loan of 1 to 2 billion US dollars, but could be around 1.3 billion US dollars, he said.

The loan could be finalized within weeks, he said and could amount to around 1.3 billion US dollars.

The loan would be within the borrowing limits approved in a vote on account up to April, Weerasinghe said.

Sri Lanka’s budget deficit is expected to rise to 7.5-7.9 percent of the gross domestic product in 2020, after value-added taxes were slashed.

A cash injection from China would help keep domestic interest rates in check.

Data showed that the government borrowing from the banking system was 120 billion rupees in January. (Colombo/Mar05/2020)

Miss-Sangeetha

Miss-Sangeetha
Moderator
Moderator

With the coronavirus (COVID-19) slowing down the global economy, foreigners have rushed to encash Treasury Bonds and Bills held by them in Sri Lanka, resulting in an outflow of Rs 19.6 billion in two weeks, the Central Bank said.

According to Central Bank statistics, Rs 8.23 billion of foreign outflow was recorded this week by Friday while last week Rs 11.42 billion government securities were encashed.

Monthly Monetary Policy Review issued by the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) said this week that the escalation of the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak to a ‘global health emergency’ was likely to affect Sri Lanka’s economic performance.

“Sri Lanka’s economic links with China could be directly affected as significant volumes of consumer goods, intermediate goods and investment goods are imported from China. The likely slowdown of the global economy and disruptions to the supply chain could affect Sri Lanka’s merchandise and service exports as well as related logistics,” the CBSL Policy Review said while stressing that the slowdown in global tourist movements would affect Sri Lanka’s tourism sector, in addition to the direct impact of lower arrivals from China.

The CBSL Policy Review also warned that the spread of the virus to countries with a significant number of Sri Lankan migrant workers could affect remittance inflows also.

Development Banking and Loan Schemes State Minister Shehan Semasinghe told the Sunday Times that even though the current slowing down of the global economy due to the coronavirus would have an impact on small nations such as Sri Lanka, the government had taken adequate measures to ensure a stabilized economy.

“With the government setting paddy buying price at Rs 50, it will have a positive impact on agrarian based rural economy in addition to money circulation among the people.

We believe this would reflect in the other sectors of the country’s overall economy, he said.

In a new study this week, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) said Sri Lanka could experience a negative growth of (-0.18%) on the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) this year considering the significant economic impact of COVID19 on Asia through numerous channels, including sharp declines in domestic consumption, lower tourism and business travel, trade and production linkages, supply disruptions, and health.

A Colombo-based firm’s market analyst said if the foreign outflow was to increase in future, it would cause further depreciation of the rupee against the US dollar. According to CBSL data, during the period up to March 6 this year, the Sri Lanka rupee depreciated against the US dollar by 0.2 percent.

Ceylon Chamber of Commerce Chief Economist Shiran Fernando said,” The outflows are not Sri Lanka specific as we are seeing similar outflows in other emerging and frontier market countries with  foreign portfolio investors returning to safe haven assets like gold and US Treasury Bills. “It is yet to apply a significant depreciating pressure on the currency but will need to be monitored.”
Source-Sundaytimes.lk

105Sri Lanka Economy - Page 4 Empty Re: Sri Lanka Economy Sun Mar 08, 2020 10:15 am

Teller

Teller
Moderator
Moderator

There are 6 major scenarios which i have analysed for the foreign exit. No 1 reason is expecting the further rupee depreciation. It suppose to be 191 against USD. So who ever exit now, they can take more $ back rather further depreciation of rupee. 2.foreign market has big opportunity cost due to attractive prices in recent downtrend. 3. Sri lanka government debt and doubt of gov income. 4. Government international policy, 5.


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