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RICH, KGAL, NAMU prices after reports

+17
Monster
NEM
smallville
gann
Fresher
mark
econ
san1985
Rajitha
UKboy
mono
ranga
is
tubal
optimistic
yoyo
taniya1111
21 posters

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1RICH, KGAL, NAMU prices after reports Empty RICH, KGAL, NAMU prices after reports Fri May 27, 2011 3:13 pm

taniya1111


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

RICH = Rs 20+ is possible Most probably EPS is more than 1.2
KGAL = Rs 300 + is possible Because KGAL will show probably the best financial report for Q4
NAMU = Rs 160 + is possible .also heavily undervalued and will show great results as well



Last edited by Quibit on Fri May 27, 2011 6:10 pm; edited 2 times in total (Reason for editing : corrected a spelling mistake)

yoyo

yoyo
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

We had a discussion about these 3 shares here...

http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t4016-rich-namu-kgal-rally?highlight=RICH

optimistic

optimistic
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

when the results for the 31st december 2010 was released, RICH went to a maximum of 16. 20+ sounds too optimistic. as we have seen, illiquid shares have been the only stocks to have had an upside of atleast 50% in the short term. 20+ is definitely achievable in the long run given the positive investor sentiments. as far as i have observed, bluechips are slow movers. so you would have to hold RICH for over 6 months to get a 50% return atleast.

tubal


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics

Well the results are out
http://www.cse.lk/cmt/upload_report_file/725_1306491042098.PDF
http://www.cse.lk/cmt/upload_report_file/711_1306489935485.pdf
http://www.cse.lk/cmt/upload_report_file/509_1306490010415.PDF

And I don't think this is what many of you were expecting

is


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic

KGAL is as per my expectation... Rev growth is 26% when compared to December Q. And Bottom line growth of 19%. But RICH is not upto my expectation. We can expect repeat of KGAL from KOTA too.

ranga


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic


KGAL EPS increased

last Q 9.10 227.5Mn Profit
this Q 10.78 270.1Mn Profit

ranga


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic

I have attahed quater by quater performance of KGAL.
Attachments
RICH, KGAL, NAMU prices after reports AttachmentKGAL.JPG
You don't have permission to download attachments.
(18 Kb) Downloaded 29 times

is


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic

KGAL can be fairly valued at 275 (at Trailing PER)~310 (at forward PER)...Can there be another mini plantation rally again on next week... Specially for Rubber ones which will have less effect on cost of production due to wage hike.

mono

mono
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics

fiannce costs, admin costs & other costs screwed over RICH. Sad.

I guess i'll dump RICH early morning and try and pick up KGAL.

10RICH, KGAL, NAMU prices after reports Empty Re: RICH, KGAL, NAMU prices after reports Fri May 27, 2011 5:49 pm

UKboy

UKboy
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

tubal wrote:Well the results are out
http://www.cse.lk/cmt/upload_report_file/725_1306491042098.PDF
http://www.cse.lk/cmt/upload_report_file/711_1306489935485.pdf
http://www.cse.lk/cmt/upload_report_file/509_1306490010415.PDF

And I don't think this is what many of you were expecting

I can still remember few months ago many many people recommended that RICH should be trading around Rs20. wondering where all those people now...

They all easily forgot that this share was appreciated from Rs 35 - Rs 170 ( before the split) in just few months.

I dont say that RICH is a bad counter but around Rs 13 - 14 this is fairly valued...

11RICH, KGAL, NAMU prices after reports Empty Re: RICH, KGAL, NAMU prices after reports Fri May 27, 2011 5:55 pm

Rajitha

Rajitha
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

tubal wrote:Well the results are out
http://www.cse.lk/cmt/upload_report_file/725_1306491042098.PDF
http://www.cse.lk/cmt/upload_report_file/711_1306489935485.pdf
http://www.cse.lk/cmt/upload_report_file/509_1306490010415.PDF

And I don't think this is what many of you were expecting

Thats exactly what I expected from KGAL after looking at AGAL report with those astronomically added expenses!
But really disappointed in NAMU! I thought Palm oil + Rubber would have contributed way more than that! I still can't understand how they made almost same revenue both quarter! Was expecting around EPS 5.50-6 Sad

12RICH, KGAL, NAMU prices after reports Empty Re: RICH, KGAL, NAMU prices after reports Fri May 27, 2011 6:02 pm

mono

mono
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics

UKboy wrote:
tubal wrote:Well the results are out
http://www.cse.lk/cmt/upload_report_file/725_1306491042098.PDF
http://www.cse.lk/cmt/upload_report_file/711_1306489935485.pdf
http://www.cse.lk/cmt/upload_report_file/509_1306490010415.PDF

And I don't think this is what many of you were expecting

I can still remember few months ago many many people recommended that RICH should be trading around Rs20. wondering where all those people now...

They all easily forgot that this share was appreciated from Rs 35 - Rs 170 ( before the split) in just few months.

I dont say that RICH is a bad counter but around Rs 13 - 14 this is fairly valued...

what does the bold bit have to do with anything? when rich was moving from 35-170 rubber prices were half of what they were now and RICH was making a much smaller profit.

Most of us expected RICH to improve on last quarter's performance given that the rubber prices have appreciated quite a bit more. I thought they'd post an EPS of .3 or higher. i was wrong and they didn't.

13RICH, KGAL, NAMU prices after reports Empty Re: RICH, KGAL, NAMU prices after reports Fri May 27, 2011 6:04 pm

mono

mono
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics

Rajitha wrote:
tubal wrote:Well the results are out
http://www.cse.lk/cmt/upload_report_file/725_1306491042098.PDF
http://www.cse.lk/cmt/upload_report_file/711_1306489935485.pdf
http://www.cse.lk/cmt/upload_report_file/509_1306490010415.PDF

And I don't think this is what many of you were expecting

Thats exactly what I expected from KGAL after looking at AGAL report with those astronomically added expenses!
But really disappointed in NAMU! I thought Palm oil + Rubber would have contributed way more than that! I still can't understand how they made almost same revenue both quarter! Was expecting around EPS 5.50-6 Sad

I was expecting much higher earnings for KGAL. their finance costs screwed they over.

14RICH, KGAL, NAMU prices after reports Empty Re: RICH, KGAL, NAMU prices after reports Fri May 27, 2011 6:26 pm

san1985

san1985
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

NAMUNUKULA PLANTATIONS PLC
Company ID: - NAMU
Date of Announcement:-27.May.2011
Rate of Dividend: - Rs. 0.70 per share / Final Dividend
Financial Year: - 2010/2011
Shareholder Approval: - Required
AGM:-30-Jun-2011
XD:-01.Jul.2011
Payment: - 08.Jul.2011
Share Transfer Book Open

RICHARD PIERIS AND COMPANY PLC
Company ID: - RICH
Date of Announcement:-27.May.2011
Rate of Dividend: - Rs. 0.10 per share / Final Dividend
Financial Year: - 2010/2011
Shareholder Approval: - Required
AGM:-30-Jun-2011
XD:-01.Jul.2011
Payment: - 08.Jul.2011
Share Transfer Book Open

KEGALLE PLANTATIONS PLC
Company ID: - KGAL
Date of Announcement:-27.May.2011
Rate of Dividend: - Rs. 0.50 per share / Final Dividend
Financial Year: - 2010/2011
Shareholder Approval: - Required
AGM:-30-Jun-2011
XD:-01.Jul.2011
Payment: - 08.Jul.2011
Share Transfer Book Open

Only 0.50 dividend from KGAL, when KOTA is paying 5......


15RICH, KGAL, NAMU prices after reports Empty Re: RICH, KGAL, NAMU prices after reports Fri May 27, 2011 6:32 pm

UKboy

UKboy
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

mono wrote:
UKboy wrote:
tubal wrote:Well the results are out
http://www.cse.lk/cmt/upload_report_file/725_1306491042098.PDF
http://www.cse.lk/cmt/upload_report_file/711_1306489935485.pdf
http://www.cse.lk/cmt/upload_report_file/509_1306490010415.PDF

And I don't think this is what many of you were expecting

I can still remember few months ago many many people recommended that RICH should be trading around Rs20. wondering where all those people now...

They all easily forgot that this share was appreciated from Rs 35 - Rs 170 ( before the split) in just few months.

I dont say that RICH is a bad counter but around Rs 13 - 14 this is fairly valued...

what does the bold bit have to do with anything? when rich was moving from 35-170 rubber prices were half of what they were now and RICH was making a much smaller profit.

Most of us expected RICH to improve on last quarter's performance given that the rubber prices have appreciated quite a bit more. I thought they'd post an EPS of .3 or higher. i was wrong and they didn't.

Yes mono as same as they were making small profits & their share prices was also small at that time.

As you said year before they made only Rs 722 millions for the whole year and EPS was 4.50. In May 2010 share price was around Rs 75. So we say the P/E is 16.67.

As you said yes this year they made Rs 2.1 billion as profits. Again Yes as you said it is very impressive.
EPS is 0.87 and we can say the P/E is 15.7..

mono wrote:
what does the bold bit have to do with anything?

So you decide whats the meaning of that bold bit



Last edited by UKboy on Fri May 27, 2011 6:44 pm; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : spelling mistake)

16RICH, KGAL, NAMU prices after reports Empty Re: RICH, KGAL, NAMU prices after reports Fri May 27, 2011 6:38 pm

econ

econ
Global Moderator

.Thats why RICH was not much moving ahead of the financials..
if their profits better than this , this might have moved lot before the financials.
I am curious to know the BRWN results. it should be good thats because it has moved from 280 to 390..

17RICH, KGAL, NAMU prices after reports Empty Re: RICH, KGAL, NAMU prices after reports Fri May 27, 2011 6:39 pm

tubal


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics

econ wrote:.Thats why RICH was not much moving ahead of the financials..
if their profits better than this , this might have moved lot before the financials.
I am curious to know the BRWN results. it should be good thats because it has moved from 280 to 390..

is that why MSL moved up 24% today? Very Happy

18RICH, KGAL, NAMU prices after reports Empty Re: RICH, KGAL, NAMU prices after reports Fri May 27, 2011 6:47 pm

mono

mono
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics

tubal wrote:
econ wrote:.Thats why RICH was not much moving ahead of the financials..
if their profits better than this , this might have moved lot before the financials.
I am curious to know the BRWN results. it should be good thats because it has moved from 280 to 390..

is that why MSL moved up 24% today? Very Happy

They forgot the brackets with that one. Cool

19RICH, KGAL, NAMU prices after reports Empty Re: RICH, KGAL, NAMU prices after reports Fri May 27, 2011 6:48 pm

mono

mono
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics

UKboy, i don't get your point.

20RICH, KGAL, NAMU prices after reports Empty Re: RICH, KGAL, NAMU prices after reports Fri May 27, 2011 6:53 pm

mark

mark
Expert
Expert

now KOTA left... relatively attractive than NAMU,KGAL when considering dividends

21RICH, KGAL, NAMU prices after reports Empty Re: RICH, KGAL, NAMU prices after reports Fri May 27, 2011 6:57 pm

UKboy

UKboy
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

mono wrote:UKboy, i don't get your point.

Dear mono,

Last year they made 722 million and this year they made Rs 2.1 billions

Last year they had 128 million shares & now it is 1937 million.

Last year EPS 4.5 & this year EPS0.87

So how come people think this is an undervalued share & should be trading around Rs 20.00...?

22RICH, KGAL, NAMU prices after reports Empty Re: RICH, KGAL, NAMU prices after reports Fri May 27, 2011 7:08 pm

mono

mono
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics

UKboy wrote:
mono wrote:UKboy, i don't get your point.

Dear mono,

Last year they made 722 million and this year they made Rs 2.1 billions

Last year their share capital was 128 million & now it is 1937 million.

Last year EPS 4.5 & this year EPS0.87

So how come people think this is an undervalued share & should be trading around Rs 20.00...?

people were expecting much higher earnings that's why. I told you about the rubber deal. last quarter when they posted .33 eps the price of rubber was averaged 200 this quarter the price of rubber averaged at 250. That should have pushed their earnings much higher, considering RICH is heavily exposed to rubber. their retail business was also talking off nicely. that's why people were expecting 20.

23RICH, KGAL, NAMU prices after reports Empty Re: RICH, KGAL, NAMU prices after reports Fri May 27, 2011 7:19 pm

Fresher


Moderator
Moderator

Interim Financial Sttements
RICH
KGAL

24RICH, KGAL, NAMU prices after reports Empty Re: RICH, KGAL, NAMU prices after reports Fri May 27, 2011 7:58 pm

gann

gann
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

I like to read you guys thrash it out throwing facts and figures at each other sitting outside of the ring.

Since all three of these shares are fundamentally strong and the overall outlook is positive i see no reason for panicking.

25RICH, KGAL, NAMU prices after reports Empty Re: RICH, KGAL, NAMU prices after reports Fri May 27, 2011 8:14 pm

smallville

smallville
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics

UKboy wrote:
mono wrote:UKboy, i don't get your point.

Dear mono,

Last year they made 722 million and this year they made Rs 2.1 billions

Last year they had 128 million shares & now it is 1937 million.

Last year EPS 4.5 & this year EPS0.87

So how come people think this is an undervalued share & should be trading around Rs 20.00...?

I'm just doing a valuation based on Year Ended Results; So not talking abt the company performance much..
Facts taken - Sector PE is for plantations taken as 8,24 as reported by NDB reports. And for diversified Sectro PE = 25.06.

NAMU

EPS = 17.23
While Rubber has contributed much to the bottom line, Oil Palm expectation was hindered.
So compared to 2010, we're seeing much lesser contribution from Oil Palm.
Sector Valuation - 17.23*8.24 = 141.97
Current PE = 132/17.23 = 7.66 still undervalued..
Share holders Fund = 1311.07 Mn
ROE = 409.33/1311.07 = 31.2%

KGAL

EPS = 33.66
Compared to last year a decline of cost of sales to be clearly seen with the revenue growth.
Rev/COS in 2011 = 1.64 Bn compared to 1.26 Bn in 2010.
Declaration of final Dividend of Rs. 12.5Mn (Rs. 0.50 per share).
Revenue on Rubber is 1.96 Bn and its a 53.1% increase compared to 2010.
But risen finance cost was a bit issue.
Sector Valuation - 33.66*8.24 = 277-/
Current PE = 221/33.66 = 6.56 way undervalued..
Share holders Fund = 2409.4 Mn
ROE = 837.75 / 2409.4 = 34.7%

RICH

Diluted EPS = 0.84
Revenue = 27.2 Bn
Equity Holders = 1.68 Bn
No of shares = 1.94 Bn
The company has declared a final dividend of Rs.0.10 per share for the financial year ended
31st March 2011.
Employees Provident Fund has entered with 5.12% stake
Sector Valuation - 0.84*25.06 = 21/-
Share holders Fund = 5002.93 Mn
ROE = 2140.52/5002.93 = 42.7%

Conclusion;
Totally disappointed with NAMU.
Fingers crossed on KGAL Price..
Given a 30% discount to sector even RICH is worth 14.7/- Now whose sayin RICH is still not worth 20???



Last edited by smallville on Mon May 30, 2011 6:44 am; edited 2 times in total (Reason for editing : a typo)

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