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Sri Lanka Equity Forum » Stock Market Talk » CEYLON GRAIN ELEVATORS PLC (GRAN.N0000)

CEYLON GRAIN ELEVATORS PLC (GRAN.N0000)

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41CEYLON GRAIN ELEVATORS PLC (GRAN.N0000) - Page 3 Empty Re: CEYLON GRAIN ELEVATORS PLC (GRAN.N0000) on Sat Apr 16, 2011 3:24 am

Monster


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
This is one of the good counter. I have collected enough at 170 level. This is a good investment for mid term and long term. It should start to move before the next financial statement.

42CEYLON GRAIN ELEVATORS PLC (GRAN.N0000) - Page 3 Empty Re: CEYLON GRAIN ELEVATORS PLC (GRAN.N0000) on Sat Apr 16, 2011 10:28 am

mark


Expert
Expert
GRAN sounds good to me in current levels,remember world food prices are rising......

43CEYLON GRAIN ELEVATORS PLC (GRAN.N0000) - Page 3 Empty GRAN Labai Labai on Thu Apr 21, 2011 11:21 am

Vinu


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
Following experts comments I bought at 170 for cedits.Hpoe it will go up

44CEYLON GRAIN ELEVATORS PLC (GRAN.N0000) - Page 3 Empty Re: CEYLON GRAIN ELEVATORS PLC (GRAN.N0000) on Thu Apr 21, 2011 11:59 am

Rajitha


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
IT will be even more on SALE when it hit Rs 150 in few days! will be on MEGA sale I would say after next quarterly results!
I know many here are married to the poultry industry and don't want to hear this but please wake up and do a fair calculation of this stocks PE, PEG ratios and also compare with stocks on same sector!

45CEYLON GRAIN ELEVATORS PLC (GRAN.N0000) - Page 3 Empty Re: CEYLON GRAIN ELEVATORS PLC (GRAN.N0000) on Thu Apr 21, 2011 12:09 pm

innam


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@Rajitha wrote:IT will be even more on SALE when it hit Rs 150 in few days! will be on MEGA sale I would say after next quarterly results!
I know many here are married to the poultry industry and don't want to hear this but please wake up and do a fair calculation of this stocks PE, PEG ratios and also compare with stocks on same sector!

Given that i'm not married to the chicken sector here is a PE comp based on December quarter earnings. Keep in mind that Dec is good for chicken consumption so it may not be prudent to annualize December earnings but for the moment let's keep it simple.

........................ TAFL BFL GRAN
Price.................. 162 469 162
Dec. EPS ............ 5.29 10.24 3.42
Annualized EPS.... 21.16 40.96 13.68
P/E.................... 7.66 11.45 11.84

46CEYLON GRAIN ELEVATORS PLC (GRAN.N0000) - Page 3 Empty Re: CEYLON GRAIN ELEVATORS PLC (GRAN.N0000) on Thu Apr 21, 2011 12:13 pm

Gaja


Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
@Vinu wrote:Following experts comments I bought at 170 for cedits.Hpoe it will go up

Friend its good to listen to others comment, but before making Buy/Sales Decision, do your own analysis and do it

47CEYLON GRAIN ELEVATORS PLC (GRAN.N0000) - Page 3 Empty Re: CEYLON GRAIN ELEVATORS PLC (GRAN.N0000) on Thu Apr 21, 2011 12:20 pm

salt

salt
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@innam wrote:
@Rajitha wrote:IT will be even more on SALE when it hit Rs 150 in few days! will be on MEGA sale I would say after next quarterly results!
I know many here are married to the poultry industry and don't want to hear this but please wake up and do a fair calculation of this stocks PE, PEG ratios and also compare with stocks on same sector!

Given that i'm not married to the chicken sector here is a PE comp based on December quarter earnings. Keep in mind that Dec is good for chicken consumption so it may not be prudent to annualize December earnings but for the moment let's keep it simple.

........................ TAFL BFL GRAN
Price.................. 162 469 162
Dec. EPS ............ 5.29 10.24 3.42
Annualized EPS.... 21.16 40.96 13.68
P/E.................... 7.66 11.45 11.84

Agree with innam,

Yes, we are not married with any of the investments , they are alwys for sale if comes at right price.

This sector with good potential for growth , offers attractive valuations.

48CEYLON GRAIN ELEVATORS PLC (GRAN.N0000) - Page 3 Empty Re: CEYLON GRAIN ELEVATORS PLC (GRAN.N0000) on Thu Apr 21, 2011 12:32 pm

Rajitha

Rajitha
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@innam wrote:
@Rajitha wrote:IT will be even more on SALE when it hit Rs 150 in few days! will be on MEGA sale I would say after next quarterly results!
I know many here are married to the poultry industry and don't want to hear this but please wake up and do a fair calculation of this stocks PE, PEG ratios and also compare with stocks on same sector!

Given that i'm not married to the chicken sector here is a PE comp based on December quarter earnings. Keep in mind that Dec is good for chicken consumption so it may not be prudent to annualize December earnings but for the moment let's keep it simple.

........................ TAFL BFL GRAN
Price.................. 162 469 162
Dec. EPS ............ 5.29 10.24 3.42
Annualized EPS.... 21.16 40.96 13.68
P/E.................... 7.66 11.45 11.84

OFC its not good to annualized the best quarterly results by multiplying by 4! By that EASY logic HASU earnings per year is 4.83*4= 19.28 PE ratio= 3.8 for a finance company!
And I can name a lot more like this!
Also in GRAN final Report it clearly states the profit for the whole year so why did you not put that and went to the extra trouble to get 3 months one and multiply by 4? If anything thats you taking hard road not taking it for easiness
GRAN profits EPS according to LAST reports is Rs 8.39 ! That is by the way is false and should get reduced as they mentioned later from an announcement!
SO GRAN current PE is greater than 164/8.39 = 19.54! And that the best value! True PE ratio should be higher after they put the audited results!
DO you think a company in this sector is worth this much ? compared with other companies in food and bevarage sector!
You decide!

49CEYLON GRAIN ELEVATORS PLC (GRAN.N0000) - Page 3 Empty Re: CEYLON GRAIN ELEVATORS PLC (GRAN.N0000) on Thu Apr 21, 2011 1:16 pm

Fresher


Moderator
Moderator
So Rajitha, you are assuming that the company will be going into reverse gear considering its growth

50CEYLON GRAIN ELEVATORS PLC (GRAN.N0000) - Page 3 Empty Re: CEYLON GRAIN ELEVATORS PLC (GRAN.N0000) on Thu Apr 21, 2011 1:41 pm

wikum100


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@Rajitha wrote:
@innam wrote:
@Rajitha wrote:IT will be even more on SALE when it hit Rs 150 in few days! will be on MEGA sale I would say after next quarterly results!
I know many here are married to the poultry industry and don't want to hear this but please wake up and do a fair calculation of this stocks PE, PEG ratios and also compare with stocks on same sector!

Given that i'm not married to the chicken sector here is a PE comp based on December quarter earnings. Keep in mind that Dec is good for chicken consumption so it may not be prudent to annualize December earnings but for the moment let's keep it simple.

........................ TAFL BFL GRAN
Price.................. 162 469 162
Dec. EPS ............ 5.29 10.24 3.42
Annualized EPS.... 21.16 40.96 13.68
P/E.................... 7.66 11.45 11.84

OFC its not good to annualized the best quarterly results by multiplying by 4! By that EASY logic HASU earnings per year is 4.83*4= 19.28 PE ratio= 3.8 for a finance company!
And I can name a lot more like this!
Also in GRAN final Report it clearly states the profit for the whole year so why did you not put that and went to the extra trouble to get 3 months one and multiply by 4? If anything thats you taking hard road not taking it for easiness
GRAN profits EPS according to LAST reports is Rs 8.39 ! That is by the way is false and should get reduced as they mentioned later from an announcement!
SO GRAN current PE is greater than 164/8.39 = 19.54! And that the best value! True PE ratio should be higher after they put the audited results!
DO you think a company in this sector is worth this much ? compared with other companies in food and bevarage sector!
You decide!

thanks i salute to your technical knowlege and +rep from me
but rajitha you know this is srilanka and srilanka ces
you see technical counts seems not working hear..... No Crying or Very sad

51CEYLON GRAIN ELEVATORS PLC (GRAN.N0000) - Page 3 Empty Re: CEYLON GRAIN ELEVATORS PLC (GRAN.N0000) on Thu Apr 21, 2011 1:49 pm

kuk83

kuk83
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
npp wrote:So Rajitha, you are assuming that the company will be going into reverse gear considering its growth

Twisted Evil Twisted Evil

52CEYLON GRAIN ELEVATORS PLC (GRAN.N0000) - Page 3 Empty Re: CEYLON GRAIN ELEVATORS PLC (GRAN.N0000) on Thu Apr 21, 2011 3:00 pm

Rajitha

Rajitha
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
lol about - 9 rep for stating truth and correct facts!

Well no wonder market is like this with this many idiots around who just want to hear what they want! You get + rep for making false calculations and person who correct it and state facts get huge - rep! Also for all other topcis I posted in first page! Well maybe its time it this forum also like investnow.lk from last few topics I saw !
Maybe its better to stick to facebook than an anonymous place run by idiots patting their own egos!

Anyway Go ahead with your great stocks and lets c what happens ! I'm 2 fed up trying to post sense and make this a better place!

53CEYLON GRAIN ELEVATORS PLC (GRAN.N0000) - Page 3 Empty Re: CEYLON GRAIN ELEVATORS PLC (GRAN.N0000) on Thu Apr 21, 2011 3:34 pm

MoneyMaker

MoneyMaker
Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
@Rajitha wrote:lol about - 9 rep for stating truth and correct facts!

Well no wonder market is like this with this many idiots around who just want to hear what they want! You get + rep for making false calculations and person who correct it and state facts get huge - rep! Also for all other topcis I posted in first page! Well maybe its time it this forum also like investnow.lk from last few topics I saw !
Maybe its better to stick to facebook than an anonymous place run by idiots patting their own egos!

Anyway Go ahead with your great stocks and lets c what happens ! I'm 2 fed up trying to post sense and make this a better place!

Lets wait and see if you are right time will tell.

+rep from me for your personality + view point

54CEYLON GRAIN ELEVATORS PLC (GRAN.N0000) - Page 3 Empty Re: CEYLON GRAIN ELEVATORS PLC (GRAN.N0000) on Thu Apr 21, 2011 3:42 pm

salt

salt
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Rajitha wrote:lol about - 9 rep for stating truth and correct facts!

Well no wonder market is like this with this many idiots around who just want to hear what they want! You get + rep for making false calculations and person who correct it and state facts get huge - rep! Also for all other topcis I posted in first page! Well maybe its time it this forum also like investnow.lk from last few topics I saw !
Maybe its better to stick to facebook than an anonymous place run by idiots patting their own egos!

Anyway Go ahead with your great stocks and lets c what happens ! I'm 2 fed up trying to post sense and make this a better place!

I am not going to judge somebody here who says I am the man, others are idiots!

Whats innam was talking about Forward PER which always is correct as investments focus on future cashflows/ or earnings. The cashflow or eanings in the past belongs to the investors who were there at that time. Those who know little bit of valuation , knows this factor well.

So, I agree with innam. He has tried to estimates future earnings based on latest quarterly estimate. Instead somebody could have used growth rate for annaul earnings

He may be wrong in his estimate, thats a different issue. Nobody can be right in valuation. Only one can be better than any other in estimates.

55CEYLON GRAIN ELEVATORS PLC (GRAN.N0000) - Page 3 Empty Re: CEYLON GRAIN ELEVATORS PLC (GRAN.N0000) on Thu Apr 21, 2011 3:53 pm

innam

innam
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
sigh, you can take a horse (or a donkey) to water but you can't make it drink.

a blind statement was made that a share "will hit 150 in a few days", no facts were given just a vague statement.

any one able to read a post slowly and clearly will see that my reply to the blind statement actually shows the fact that GRAN is "relatively" the most expensive counter in the poultry sector.

i've also said
-but for the moment let's keep it simple
-that Dec is good for chicken consumption so it may not be prudent to annualize December earnings (refer @salt's post about estimates)

like i said you can take a horse (or a donkey) to water but you can't make it drink.

56CEYLON GRAIN ELEVATORS PLC (GRAN.N0000) - Page 3 Empty Re: CEYLON GRAIN ELEVATORS PLC (GRAN.N0000) on Thu Apr 21, 2011 4:44 pm

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
@Rajitha wrote:lol about - 9 rep for stating truth and correct facts!

Well no wonder market is like this with this many idiots around who just want to hear what they want! You get + rep for making false calculations and person who correct it and state facts get huge - rep! Also for all other topcis I posted in first page! Well maybe its time it this forum also like investnow.lk from last few topics I saw !
Maybe its better to stick to facebook than an anonymous place run by idiots patting their own egos!

Anyway Go ahead with your great stocks and lets c what happens ! I'm 2 fed up trying to post sense and make this a better place!


Rajitha,

To start off I am giving you a + Rep for you direct opinion but note my difference in opinion and my other suggestion below ...

I have taken note of your comment and it has some validity to a certain level.

On GRAN :

I am not trying to influence people to buy or at the same time demote GRAN . I am stating some facts which was not mentioned. But yes I also hold some GRAN).

When some one consider a share there maybe many sides they look at. for example

a) from a short term trader pespective based on market conditions
b) a long term investor perspective after study of future growth and market
c) from techinical point of view ..
d) Yes some might blindly follow

As Innam and your self pointed your the Financials I will not further elaborate on GRAN fundamentals .
Forum members can decide whether its is over valued or under valued. I also do not know whether this share will go further down.

However note the below facts in addition to fundamentals you mentioned..

* GRAN once traded at Rs 260 ( manipulated or not is a different story) before this huge retraction ;-)
* There were two crossing
a) 1 at around Rs 250 by perpetual if I recall right
b) another around Rs 205 by Laugf
When these people shed out large money they too must have done some research without blidly following. Also they will
not be willing to loose money in medium to long term ( wink wink)

* GRAN financial position is getting stronger.
* In the annual report please read page 3-4 by the Chariman. There are reasons for people to think this to be a potential medium to long term company. http://www.cse.lk/cmt/upload_report_file/671_1301398524.pdf
* GRAN is in the recovery phase after bad period ( of course as with any other company there are risk involved with GRAN too I agree. ) So for some investor this will be future growth share.

* Asha Phillips made a research Report on GRAN where they recommend GRAN as a buy
http://research.srilankaequity.com/t25-ceylon-grain-elevotors-plc-gran

People may have opinion different from yours. When there are far worse shares trading at abnormal PE and prices GRAN is not the worst. Just look at Hotel sector itself with is trading mostly at absured PEs. Why? There is a reason for it.



Remember the call you made on LDEV yesterday. To which I contributed. ( http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t2846-ldev-prospect) . Even you would agree that LDEV is a not a fundamental but you had your own reasons to justify what you said.

Likewise there are GRAN believers.



Do not take what I am about to say personally. Take this as an advise from a friend. I have been following your post and observing you comment style.

First of all I admire your straight forwardness in stating you opinion. But there is a way to do it. You have a right to state your opinion but others also have the same right. At the same time we all should respect each other opinion without been nasty, as each side of opinion might have something you did not see before. If you do not like an opinion you should say in a decent way why you oppose without getting personal with words.

We cannot force people to buy or not to buy a share though our opinion might be different. It is their money and it is their call. This is a public forum. Facebook might be a little different but then again what I said above still hold.

Again I admire what you said. But kindly adjust how you reply and your choice of words so it does not attack people if their opinion is different to your. Then these - reps might go away. Statement such as "Well no wonder market is like this with this many idiots around who just want to hear what they want!" might have some truth but is not the polite way to say it or convince someone.

I hope you understand what I am saying and take it correctly.



Last edited by slstock on Thu Apr 21, 2011 5:50 pm; edited 4 times in total

57CEYLON GRAIN ELEVATORS PLC (GRAN.N0000) - Page 3 Empty Re: CEYLON GRAIN ELEVATORS PLC (GRAN.N0000) on Thu Apr 21, 2011 5:15 pm

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
@Vinu wrote:Following experts comments I bought at 170 for cedits.Hpoe it will go up

Vinu, honestly I don't think there is such a thing as an expert comment in the share market to straightway rise in price. ( unless leaked information before a share rise.) All share have upward and downward movements. Do some research on this and see if this is a worth counter. If so hold. Else you know what to do.

Just so that you know there was also a research report done by Asha Phillips recommednign GRAN as a buy



Last edited by slstock on Thu Apr 21, 2011 5:43 pm; edited 1 time in total

58CEYLON GRAIN ELEVATORS PLC (GRAN.N0000) - Page 3 Empty Re: CEYLON GRAIN ELEVATORS PLC (GRAN.N0000) on Thu Apr 21, 2011 5:16 pm

smallville

smallville
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
If earnings were analysed to convert those to PE BFL is the no.1, then TAFL and GRAN.. And at a certain discount to sector, GRAN valuations may come closer to current trading price..

But looking forward from December qtr, we see a huge revenue increase just for Tourist season and world cup time.. A lot of slaughtering might've gone in the back for facilitating the chic consumption..

So I cant actually buy the facts if some1 says GRAN would fall to 150 or below that becuz there's visible qtr to qtr growth in all poultry sector..

Further more; technically the counter is heavily oversold now..
CEYLON GRAIN ELEVATORS PLC (GRAN.N0000) - Page 3 Gran_s10

This can go back to 160s before a run but 150 is....



59CEYLON GRAIN ELEVATORS PLC (GRAN.N0000) - Page 3 Empty Re: CEYLON GRAIN ELEVATORS PLC (GRAN.N0000) on Thu Apr 21, 2011 5:34 pm

tkc

tkc
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
K!! now i am ready again to buy GRAN more with buying power......I can hold GRAN for many years.....So no need to fear about those 150 prices........ Smile

60CEYLON GRAIN ELEVATORS PLC (GRAN.N0000) - Page 3 Empty Re: CEYLON GRAIN ELEVATORS PLC (GRAN.N0000) on Thu Apr 21, 2011 6:11 pm

ha_na


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
GRAN was nearly killed today by 200K sell order. It's a massive order for a open market. even though massive amount not attacked the lower prices but recovered to 170. But close of 162.4 is discouraging. If it lost the ground next support around 144. I'll blame it to the 200K sell order.

61CEYLON GRAIN ELEVATORS PLC (GRAN.N0000) - Page 3 Empty Re: CEYLON GRAIN ELEVATORS PLC (GRAN.N0000) on Thu Apr 21, 2011 7:12 pm

Gaja


Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
while well come the different point view of the members as another member mention it will be nice if we ignore some words

62CEYLON GRAIN ELEVATORS PLC (GRAN.N0000) - Page 3 Empty Re: CEYLON GRAIN ELEVATORS PLC (GRAN.N0000) on Thu Apr 21, 2011 7:53 pm

milanka

milanka
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Rajitha : - I am giving you a + Rep for you direct opinion although mine differs to yours. Do continue with this forum to make this a better place.

http://forum.srilankaequity.com/u188

63CEYLON GRAIN ELEVATORS PLC (GRAN.N0000) - Page 3 Empty Re: CEYLON GRAIN ELEVATORS PLC (GRAN.N0000) on Thu Apr 21, 2011 8:56 pm

pushpakumara


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@milanka wrote:Rajitha : - I am giving you a + Rep for you direct opinion although mine differs to yours. Do continue with this forum to make this a better place.

The TAF and GE are like husband and wife. There is always relations between price movements of these shares. AGMs too are held on the same day and one will start soon after the other one is held.

Is that because they are into same sector or any other reason??

64CEYLON GRAIN ELEVATORS PLC (GRAN.N0000) - Page 3 Empty GRAN labai...... on Thu Apr 21, 2011 9:08 pm

aship

aship
Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
GRAN is the holding co of TAFL

65CEYLON GRAIN ELEVATORS PLC (GRAN.N0000) - Page 3 Empty Re: CEYLON GRAIN ELEVATORS PLC (GRAN.N0000) on Thu Apr 21, 2011 9:13 pm

pushpakumara


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@aship wrote:GRAN is the holding co of TAFL

Ah ok, great, tks a lot Aship.

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