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Rupee FORWARDS END WEAKER; SEEN FALLING ON ECONOMIC WOES

4 posters

Go down  Message [Page 1 of 1]

Teller

Teller
Moderator
Moderator

Reuters
Monday, 21 March 2016
COLOMBO: Sri Lankan rupee forwards ended weaker on Monday due to importer dollar demand, while dealers expect growing uncertainty after the announcement of new tax hikes to weigh on the currency in the short term.

One-week rupee forwards, which act as a proxy for the spot currency, ended weaker at 145.85/90 per dollar compared with Friday's close of 145.55/65.

The spot did not trade below 143.90, seen as the central bank's desired level.

"There was importer (dollar) demand today and not much of inflows," a currency dealer said, asking not to be named.

Analysts said the rupee would face downward pressure until any positive news.

S&P revised its outlook on Sri Lanka's "B-plus" sovereign credit rating to negative on March 10, a week after Fitch downgraded its rating by a notch to "B-plus" with a negative outlook.

Dealers also said policy uncertainty is deepening with the new taxes, and the capital gains tax may discourage foreign investors.

Sri Lanka will raise value added tax (VAT) and reintroduce capital gains tax to break out of a debt trap, ahead of talks on a $1.5-billion loan it is seeking from the IMF.

The downgrade will be of concern to international investors and market players, said analysts, adding it would push up the cost of government borrowings in the international market, putting pressure on the rupee.

Foreign investors sold 9.59 billion rupees ($66.3 million) worth of government securities in the week ended March 16, data from the central bank showed, taking the total offloaded since Dec. 30 to 66.1 billion rupees.

Commercial banks parked 21.4 billion rupees of surplus liquidity on Monday, using the central bank's deposit facility at 6.50 percent, while they borrowed 2.4 billion rupees using the central bank's lending facility at 8.00 percent, official data showed.

Teller

Teller
Moderator
Moderator

It looks Sri Lankan Economy is in trouble. What will be the next?

Joe007


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

Dear teller,
To me The main issues are

** Soverign Credit Rating which will be warning to foreign investors or depositors.

** Very high Debt. Very difficult for atleast another 3 years. Also no investor confidence.

** Reintroducing the CGT which will affect property sector for sure and investors in the stock market.

** VAT hike create more pressure on the company's income.

** Political instability and corruption not brought forward.

** Trade deficit.

Joe007


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

Foreign exchange will be settled If the central bank increase the interest rate further. I believe this is the best option for Srilanka at the moment. Otherwise it will be very difficult to attract foreign investment.

Teller

Teller
Moderator
Moderator

In this kind of situation foreingers loose their capital which they invested. Suppose they invest 1 USD @134 but now 1usd@145 . so they want much rupees from their investment at least to safe guard their capital. In this case no more foreigners will come to invest unless rupee is stable.

Joe007


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

Teller you are correct.

That is the reason, I am telling that the central bank has to increase the interest rate immediately to stabilise the foreign exchange rate. On the other hand, it is very risk for foreign investors to enter into Srilanka. Many foreign investors pulling out funds from rupees with the high expectations of increasing the interest rates. Increasing the interest rate is the best option for Srilanka at the moment.

Gainer

Gainer
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics

Joe007 wrote:Teller you are correct.

That is the reason, I am telling that the central bank has to increase the interest rate immediately to stabilise the foreign exchange rate. On the other hand, it is very risk for foreign investors to enter into Srilanka. Many foreign investors pulling out funds from rupees with the high expectations of increasing the interest rates. Increasing the interest rate is the best option for Srilanka at the moment.

Yes Because of interst Rates may be next month APRIL also will increase another step.......

hettdas

hettdas
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

Why these govt. management people still waiting if interest rate increase is the best solution to keep rupee stable? Are they not talented enough?

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