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Sri Lanka Equity Forum » Stock Market Talk » Investment Strategy

Investment Strategy

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161Investment Strategy - Page 9 Empty Re: Investment Strategy on Mon Jan 20, 2020 8:30 am

Teller


Moderator
Moderator
Less than 6 months

162Investment Strategy - Page 9 Empty Re: Investment Strategy on Mon Jan 20, 2020 6:30 pm

roshan1039


Moderator
Moderator
@Teller wrote:Basically my view is independent , i dont want to spread negatives but what i feel and what i analysed .  Its always upto you to Buy,Hold or Sell. I have 120+ ratios as 20+ technicals to understand . Thats the reason im mostly in profit
Your independence in doubt by sharing a stupid video

They are people told they will increase wages of plantation sector to 1500.

I know short term there will be issues because of brave decisions made by this gov

I am always supporting Gota he is the only one who can turnaround the country

163Investment Strategy - Page 9 Empty Re: Investment Strategy on Mon Jan 20, 2020 6:35 pm

Kipling


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Roshan agree 100%. I hope Teller not on payroll of the puppet masters who had UNP traitors in their pocket. Or is he one of the puppet masters. Laughing Guess the agenda of the puppeteers.

164Investment Strategy - Page 9 Empty Re: Investment Strategy on Mon Jan 20, 2020 10:44 pm

Teller


Moderator
Moderator
Hey, your guys got it wrong. People should criticize if things are not align perfectly. Thats part of government responsibility to get the ideas from the experience people some times experts. To become a good analyser , you have to listen first. Ruling or opposition doesnt matter. Here Harsha says some truth. Normally i dont believe any politician even i advise not to trust them . Once they completed the task then i will believe them. There is a saying "As we sow, we reap"

165Investment Strategy - Page 9 Empty Re: Investment Strategy on Tue Jan 21, 2020 6:04 am

Kipling


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Teller what is the agenda of your master? 
What instructions being given to SP.
We will protect you from X & Y. Razz

ThilinaM

ThilinaM
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Brokers have different scheames to rape u . do the deal silent if u are close to high net worth individual

167Investment Strategy - Page 9 Empty Re: Investment Strategy on Thu Jan 23, 2020 6:55 am

Kipling


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Hi Kavindu 
Nandana in post “Sold RCL” states that market will not move much because of certain economic issues. I  believe you expect major bull upto  7000+ after election. Even CAL is on same page & says with reforms announced even 11000 on. Market always 1 year ahead of reforms bearing fruit. So after GE I think reforms will comes& major bull should start. I recall you said 90% chance for huge bull. Please clarify as I am confused. Thanks.

168Investment Strategy - Page 9 Empty Re: Investment Strategy on Thu Jan 23, 2020 7:44 am

Kipling


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Kavindu.please respond.I am anxious & confused by Nandana post.

169Investment Strategy - Page 9 Empty Re: Investment Strategy on Thu Jan 23, 2020 7:50 am

KavinduTM

KavinduTM
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Kipling wrote:Hi Kavindu 
Nandana in post “Sold RCL” states that market will not move much because of certain economic issues. I  believe you expect major bull upto  7000+ after election. Even CAL is on same page & says with reforms announced even 11000 on. Market always 1 year ahead of reforms bearing fruit. So after GE I think reforms will comes& major bull should start. I recall you said 90% chance for huge bull. Please clarify as I am confused. Thanks.

Hello Kipling

Yeah he's correct there are some issues , and that's why we changed a gov and beat UNP by 14 Lak votes isn't it? Guess what if UNP won. Better not to talk about that shit. There will not be a country to live if they won. After GE we can hope this gov to correct them.So Yeah Market will run for sure.

And GR is here to make things right and bring back SL economy to correct path. Yeah after GE i believe CSE will run with the gov decisions. Exports will be boosted , unnecessary imports will be stopped ,Tourists will be back , foreign investors will invest again, rupee appreciate will be started and come to 150 levels again. 

Tax cuts is a short term loss to gov but that's important to encourage locals for buisnesses. As a developing country we had too much taxes. ASI will pass its all time high before 2022. 

Even when there is a chance for breaking that traditional statement of " Srilanka is been developing country" . I trust in this gov. will see

170Investment Strategy - Page 9 Empty Re: Investment Strategy on Thu Jan 23, 2020 7:53 am

Teller

Teller
Moderator
Moderator
You will see many more shares at life time low very soon. Thats only i can say now. Day by day people disposable income decreases due to increase of cost of living and the same way raw materials increasing so CPU will increase.


_________________




Teller said is said..

171Investment Strategy - Page 9 Empty Re: Investment Strategy on Thu Jan 23, 2020 7:55 am

Kipling


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Teller gives Diaspora view.



Last edited by Kipling on Thu Jan 23, 2020 8:03 am; edited 1 time in total

172Investment Strategy - Page 9 Empty Re: Investment Strategy on Thu Jan 23, 2020 7:57 am

KavinduTM

KavinduTM
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Kipling wrote:Kavindu.please respond.I am anxious & confused by Nandana post.

Haha i just woke up, i was typing

173Investment Strategy - Page 9 Empty Re: Investment Strategy on Thu Jan 23, 2020 8:06 am

Kipling


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Thanks Kavindu.
Please confirm if you fully agree with below statement.
“After GE 7000-8000 representing a huge enough bull 90% possible. If reforms introduced even 11000 on the cards”

174Investment Strategy - Page 9 Empty Re: Investment Strategy on Thu Jan 23, 2020 8:06 am

KavinduTM

KavinduTM
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Teller wrote:You will see many more shares at life time low very soon. Thats only i can say now. Day by day people disposable income decreases due to increase of cost of living and the same way raw materials increasing so CPU will increase.

Yeah you are correct. UNP gov almost killed SL economy that's why most of shares at life time low. But UNP is no more. So this will be a good point of reversal. At least unlike UNP leaders GR and MR have sons , and they won't sell or destroy their motherland like Ranil.
They tried MCC harder. Now there are some fire which was created by last gov.(vegetable prob, rice). And i think that gas prob also was 1 of their plans but their timing went wrong.



Last edited by KavinduTM on Thu Jan 23, 2020 8:17 am; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : Spelling Mistake)

175Investment Strategy - Page 9 Empty Re: Investment Strategy on Thu Jan 23, 2020 8:08 am

KavinduTM

KavinduTM
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Kipling wrote:Thanks Kavindu.
Please confirm if you fully agree with below statement.
“After GE 7000-8000 representing a huge enough bull 90% possible. If reforms introduced even 11000 on the cards”

Yeah i agree.

176Investment Strategy - Page 9 Empty Re: Investment Strategy on Thu Jan 23, 2020 8:11 am

Kipling


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Kavindu 
I hope Agreement is 100%.
I am also sure bold reforms will come with GR.

177Investment Strategy - Page 9 Empty Re: Investment Strategy on Thu Jan 23, 2020 8:22 am

cse_investor1


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
Yes do not listen to teller, he talks about all this formulas but doesn't share any. He got his prediction on LOFC wrong. Even the market prediction he said to sell all shares but now the market is nicely picking up

178Investment Strategy - Page 9 Empty Re: Investment Strategy on Thu Jan 23, 2020 8:22 am

KavinduTM

KavinduTM
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Kipling wrote:Kavindu 
I hope Agreement is 100%.
I am also sure bold reforms will come with GR.

Yeah this gov won't do crazy things , so no turn back.
yeah GR have a  back bone to do what he said. He wasn't in politics before too and he was in army too. They have some special qualities. So we can expect huge Smile

179Investment Strategy - Page 9 Empty Re: Investment Strategy on Thu Jan 23, 2020 9:15 am

Teller

Teller
Moderator
Moderator

Hahaa...Fitch cut outlook sri lanka , finance Giant ,people leasing. What else you want now?


ECONOMYNEXT- Fitch Ratings has revised the outlook on People’s Bank (PB) Commercial Bank (CB) and Serendib Finance Limited to negative from stable, after a similar move on the Sri Lankan sovereign.

PB now has a long-term national rating of AA+(lka) with a negative outlook, while CB has a rating of AA(lka) with a negative outlook and Serendib A+(lka) with negative outlook.

The PB rating reflects the bank’s quasi-sovereign status as a lender to the Sri Lankan government, full state ownership and high systemic importance, Fitch Ratings said.

CB’s outlook was cut due to the sovereign credit profile which could limit the bank’s ratings in a deteriorating operating environment, the ratings agency said.

However, CB has stable earnings, a strong domestic franchise as the third largest bank and large deposits to back its liquidity profile, Fitch said.

The outlook revision on Serendib, a subsidiary of CB, was due to a potential weakening of support from the parent, Fitch said

The ratings agency said if capital buffers weaken or operating risks escalate, CB could experience a rating downgrade, while upside is limited due to the sovereign rating and the operating environment.

For Serendib, a ratings downgrade could be triggered if links weaken with the parent or if CB suffers a downgrade, while there could be a rise in ratings if Serendib could increase its importance within the group.

The full Fitch review on the three firms follows:

Fitch has also revised the Outlook to Negative from Stable on the National Long-Term Ratings of the following Sri Lanka-based banks and non-bank financial institutions and has affirmed their ratings:

– People’s Bank (Sri Lanka) (PB),

– Commercial Bank of Ceylon PLC (CB) and

– Serendib Finance Limited

The revision of the Outlooks follows Fitch’s Outlook revision on the Sri Lankan sovereign (B/Negative); see Fitch Revises Outlook on Sri Lanka to Negative; Affirms at ‘B’, dated 18 December 2019.

Fitch has revised its assessment of Sri Lanka’s operating environment to ‘b’/negative, from ‘b’/stable, primarily to reflect the risk of doing business in the jurisdiction, which we believe could heighten in the medium term.

Increased macroeconomic volatility could pressure the banks’ and non-bank financial institutions’ credit profiles should the sovereign’s credit profile deteriorate further.

The operating environment has a high influence on the banks’ ratings, as it is likely to constrain their intrinsic credit profiles through its effect on financial and non-financial key rating factors.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

IDRS, VIABILITY RATINGS, NATIONAL RATINGS AND SENIOR DEBT

PB

PB’s National Long-Term Rating reflects Fitch’s expectation of extraordinary state support based on its quasi-sovereign status, its role as one of the key lenders to the government, full state ownership and high systemic importance.

CB
CB’s National Long-Term Rating is driven by its intrinsic financial strength and is highly influenced by our view of its operating environment. It also reflects its established domestic franchise as Sri Lanka’s third-largest bank, broadly stable earnings performance and established domestic-deposit franchise (11.6% share of banking-sector deposits at end-9M19), which underpins its funding and liquidity profile.

The Negative Outlook reflects our assessment of the sovereign’s credit profile, which could constrain the bank’s rating upon a further deterioration in the operating environment.

Serendib

Serendib’s rating is driven by Fitch’s view that its parent, CB, would provide Serendib with extraordinary support, if required.

CB’s ability to support Serendib is reflected in its credit profile, which is underpinned by its standalone strength and Serendib’s small size.

The support assessment also takes into account CB’s full ownership of Serendib, support record via multiple equity infusions and the subsidiary’s increased level of integration with its parent.

The Negative Outlook reflects the potential weakening of CB’s ability to support Serendib.

SUBORDINATED DEBT

The old-style Basel II Sri Lanka rupee-denominated subordinated debt of BOC, DFCC, CB and HNB and the Basel III compliant Tier 2 Sri Lanka rupee-denominated subordinated debt of DFCC, CB and HNB and are rated one notch below their National Long-Term Ratings to reflect subordination to senior unsecured creditors.

The Basel III compliant debentures include a non-viability trigger upon the occurrence of a trigger event, as determined by the Monetary Board of Sri Lanka.

RATING SENSITIVITIES

IDRS, VIABILITY RATINGS, NATIONAL RATINGS AND SENIOR DEBT

Changes to Sri Lanka’s sovereign rating or Fitch’s perception of state support for the banks could result in a change in the banks’ IDRs, National Long-Term Ratings and/or in the Outlook on BOC, NSB and PB.

CB

An increase in operating-environment related risks or deterioration in capital buffers could pressure CB’s rating. Upside for the rating is constrained by the sovereign rating and our assessment of the operating environment.

Serendib

Weakening links with the parent or a downgrade of CB’s National Long-Term Rating could trigger a rating downgrade on Serendib. A rating upgrade would most likely result from a significant increase in Serendib’s strategic importance to its parent through a greater role within the group.

PB:

National Long-Term Rating affirmed at ‘AA+(lka)’; Outlook revised to ‘Negative’ from ‘Stable’

CB:

National Long-Term Rating affirmed at ‘AA(lka)’; Outlook revised to ‘Negative’ from ‘Stable’

Basel II compliant outstanding subordinated debentures affirmed at ‘AA-(lka)’

Basel III compliant Sri Lanka rupee-denominated subordinated debentures affirmed at ‘AA-(lka)’

Serendib:

National Long-Term Rating affirmed at ‘A+(lka)’; Outlook revised to ‘Negative’ from ‘Stable’ (Colombo/Jan23/2020)


_________________




Teller said is said..

ThilinaM

ThilinaM
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
up to what age you will be investing?
what is your horizon say 28 years etc (from age 27 to 55)

181Investment Strategy - Page 9 Empty Re: Investment Strategy on Fri Jan 31, 2020 10:15 am

kasun_gimhana

kasun_gimhana
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
I'm investing until age 50. 
20 years.

ThilinaM please tell your expected annualized return and last year your return. (Please be honest)

182Investment Strategy - Page 9 Empty Re: Investment Strategy on Fri Jan 31, 2020 10:41 am

ThilinaM

ThilinaM
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Expected return is 20% last year return is 20+% some thing. but when market is favorable when im in profit like 15%+ and no close divident and in same period if i met a good real estate deal i will sell stocks and be into real estate. when invest inreal estate im carefull that the asset will generate some cash flow and i could by it 50% lower than current market price. when i buy the real estate i will sell that immedeately to double or quadraple price when possibe. its my secreat ceripy of investing. i have many contacts with real estate dealers and they come to my house when there is top deals.

no one will give u success secreats openly  like me. im not a KUHAKAYA thats y.

I did few real estate deals with massive profits. i use stock market for my savings account.

183Investment Strategy - Page 9 Empty Re: Investment Strategy on Fri Jan 31, 2020 10:45 am

ThilinaM

ThilinaM
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
last month i got real estate dicitions in 1 second (my mind is super fast  Laughing Laughing) and sold that to quadrapled price (paddy field 10 acre for 23 lac and got the crops worth 5 lac and sold for 9.5 mn) . 

when the dealer told me there is 10 acre land and location and price i did not negotiate within 1 second i told i will buy it (im that mutch of quick) . i gave money within 2 days by selling stocks had to pay interest to brokers since my sale was not realised . i have 4 broker accounts.



Last edited by ThilinaM on Fri Jan 31, 2020 10:52 am; edited 1 time in total

184Investment Strategy - Page 9 Empty Re: Investment Strategy on Fri Jan 31, 2020 10:50 am

ThilinaM

ThilinaM
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
to do that real estate deal i sold RHL weakest stock in my portfolio at a 16% profit from 4 months (48% return annualised)  Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy who can do it

185Investment Strategy - Page 9 Empty Re: Investment Strategy on Fri Jan 31, 2020 10:55 am

ThilinaM

ThilinaM
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
do u know best leaders trait is telling yes or no to a deal within few minutes (since they have knoledge alredy regarding that deal just have to consider price is within there limit)

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