DIALOG FINANCE PLC (CALF.N0000)

opfdo wrote:

kuma524 wrote:Now turn to profit....

EPS  -0.12
NPV -8.25

Public holding only  -14.84%

What will be the next....???

EPS is (0.03)

yeah agreed.

opfdo wrote:

kuma524 wrote:Now turn to profit....

EPS  -0.12
NPV -8.25

Public holding only  -14.84%

What will be the next....???

EPS is (0.03)

But this has bought by CARG. Surely they will delist it in the future. So i feel the price may appreciate as they need to collect the balance.

Don't forget LAMB 62/-

RPPA wrote:

opfdo wrote:

kuma524 wrote:Now turn to profit....

EPS  -0.12
NPV -8.25

Public holding only  -14.84%

What will be the next....???

EPS is (0.03)

But this has bought by CARG. Surely they will delist it in the future. So i feel the price may appreciate as they need to collect the balance.

Don't forget LAMB 62/-

If am not mistaken, CARG already appointed an audit firm to determine the exchange values, so need to wait and see the value

So it got to be above the mandatory offer.

That is 15.50

Yes, it will be interesting to note the value arrived for the Cargills Bank, since they are going toe give the Cargills Bank Share for the CALF, as per my understanding

RPPA wrote:

opfdo wrote:

kuma524 wrote:Now turn to profit....

EPS  -0.12
NPV -8.25

Public holding only  -14.84%

What will be the next....???

EPS is (0.03)

But this has bought by CARG. Surely they will delist it in the future. So i feel the price may appreciate as they need to collect the balance.

Don't forget LAMB 62/-

Hey RPPA what's with LAMB??? Any news on that and what is the price range are we looking at??

Top trader are you sure about the cargills bank shares for CALF shares??? What is the source???

indi009 wrote:

RPPA wrote:

opfdo wrote:

kuma524 wrote:Now turn to profit....

EPS  -0.12
NPV -8.25

Public holding only  -14.84%

What will be the next....???

EPS is (0.03)

But this has bought by CARG. Surely they will delist it in the future. So i feel the price may appreciate as they need to collect the balance.

Don't forget LAMB 62/-

Hey RPPA what's with LAMB??? Any news on that and what is the price range are we looking at??

Top trader are you sure about the cargills bank shares for CALF shares??? What is the source???

No i am not asking to buy LAMB. I was saying there that CARG is buying LAMB around that price range from the market to delist it. Don't go and buy LAMB. It is a company in the delisting process.

What i think is same may happen to CALF.

indi009 wrote:

RPPA wrote:

opfdo wrote:

kuma524 wrote:Now turn to profit....

EPS  -0.12
NPV -8.25

Public holding only  -14.84%

What will be the next....???

EPS is (0.03)

But this has bought by CARG. Surely they will delist it in the future. So i feel the price may appreciate as they need to collect the balance.

Don't forget LAMB 62/-

Hey RPPA what's with LAMB??? Any news on that and what is the price range are we looking at??

Top trader are you sure about the cargills bank shares for CALF shares??? What is the source???

Just read this, also if am not mistaken, they send a circular to the shareholders about it

http://www.cse.lk/cmt/uploadAnnounceFiles/7161412676094_1101.pdf

Gainer ubath hamadama mona hari danawa bkue,atl,chou,mfl,....dan tawat dala.blue witarai attama giye

Fundamentally still poor performances...

CALF top gainer today

Over value share but very long term performance may be good not in a short term

I think somebody is pushing it artificially. Same happned with NIFL, TFIL, etc due to very low liquidity. CALF also the same. Better to stay away now. If already have then can wait for few more days.

Dialog has acquire all the CALF shares (80.34%) held by Cargills Bank @ price of 28.70


https://cdn.cse.lk/cmt/upload_cse_announcements/6611505213343_.pdf

what is happening with this share?

This share is a hot pick for these 2days. hit 25% band as well. right issue dates are still not announced price of share in right issue is 23.30/-.
25% band today @ price of 63.10/- & no sellers. If anyone have a high appetite for risk you can make some quick money.

I believe the Dialog has moved the share price with getting major share percentage (99%) of the full share volume and rest of 500K share spread with others. So less liquidity of shares and yes there is high risk to resell back. Look the NAPS near 10 ... it is overrated the share price in market.

CALF rights issue 559:309 at Rs. 23.30

Current Price: Rs. 62.10
Feb-26 Price: Rs. 25
May-02 Price: Rs. 40

In few (3) months, price doubled.
Is this price manipulation or are there genuine reasons for doubling the price?
If it is manipulation targeting at rights issue, there will be a sudden huge drop in price after XDate.
Need expert advice ASAP before investing.

Thank you.

Fundamentals
FY17/18 PAT    -33 mn (loss)
PBV                 6.30   (against a sector PBV of .98)
ROE                 -7.30   ( against a sector ROE of >10)
PER                  -88 x (against a sector PER of 5.75)

technicals
RSI                   77  ( highly over bought)
CMF                  only .15 after years in  negative territory and even after a 600% price gain
OBV                  not following price move but diverging , now nose diving.

Rights ratio        3 for 5 . and that is approx 40% delusion. 

 
Current YOY average volume with a 600% upward price move almost equal to previous YOY average volume with near 0% price move. This is a clear indication the 600% price move during last 12 months was almost totally in-breeding and no new cashflow has come in as indicated by poor CMF reading. 

Unless the company has a mother load of gold stashed off-balance sheet or some politician/s is/are trying to launder their looted money , their is no indication this bullish sentiment is genuine.  

This company is in deep water looking for a life jacket. Pls see if there is any announcements indicating directors buying which I doubt. May be some investor is trying to buy this entity for it's licence. . My forecast is a price  around 35/= after X-rights date and 12/= to 15/= by 3 months after . If you realy want to invest in this sector at this point in time  , why don't you look at COCR. In any case ASI/S&P will only start to move when the CBSL will either shrink the Policy rate corridor further or loosen monetary policy by reducing  AWPLR .Newtons laws of Motion is some what applicable to capital markets as well when big moves are made . When price moves are microscopic , then Schrodinger's wave function and Heisenberg's uncertainty principle are more likely to apply in an abstract form at least . This advice given without prejudice. Use your value judgment and make your move. 

If you ask me , I would rather extract my prostrate gland with a fork than buy this stock. 

Remember , if something is too good to be true it usually is.

Even with all this crap, I could be proven wrong as past performance is not a guarantee of future performance.  

Good luck with your investing.

hirankb wrote:Fundamentals
FY17/18 PAT    -33 mn (loss)
PBV                 6.30   (against a sector PBV of .98)
ROE                 -7.30   ( against a sector ROE of >10)
PER                  -88 x (against a sector PER of 5.75)

technicals
RSI                   77  ( highly over bought)
CMF                  only .15 after years in  negative territory and even after a 600% price gain
OBV                  not following price move but diverging , now nose diving.

Rights ratio        3 for 5 . and that is approx 40% delusion. 

 
Current YOY average volume with a 600% upward price move almost equal to previous YOY average volume with near 0% price move. This is a clear indication the 600% price move during last 12 months was almost totally in-breeding and no new cashflow has come in as indicated by poor CMF reading. 

Unless the company has a mother load of gold stashed off-balance sheet or some politician/s is/are trying to launder their looted money , their is no indication this bullish sentiment is genuine.  

This company is in deep water looking for a life jacket. Pls see if there is any announcements indicating directors buying which I doubt. May be some investor is trying to buy this entity for it's licence. . My forecast is a price  around 35/= after X-rights date and 12/= to 15/= by 3 months after . If you realy want to invest in this sector at this point in time  , why don't you look at COCR. In any case ASI/S&P will only start to move when the CBSL will either shrink the Policy rate corridor further or loosen monetary policy by reducing  AWPLR .Newtons laws of Motion is some what applicable to capital markets as well when big moves are made . When price moves are microscopic , then Schrodinger's wave function and Heisenberg's uncertainty principle are more likely to apply in an abstract form at least . This advice given without prejudice. Use your value judgment and make your move. 

If you ask me , I would rather extract my prostrate gland with a fork than buy this stock. 

Remember , if something is too good to be true it usually is.

Even with all this crap, I could be proven wrong as past performance is not a guarantee of future performance.  

Good luck with your investing.

Thank you for the detailed answer.

I also noticed a similar situation (Rights Issue & Price doubled in few months) with SHL.

SHL pricing seems to be fine.

Stock Prices:

Jan 29 - Rs 12.90

Mar 16 - Rs 24.30 (Announced)

Mar 27 - Rs 21.50 (XDate)

Apr 12 - Rs 21.30

May 15 - Rs 21.90

How do you compare CALF to SHL?

Open for all to comment...
Thank you.

Highly speculative counter. neither the fundamentals or technicals indicate any inherent driver for this doubling in price after reporting huge reduction in net profits. May be the rise is due to the possibility of SHL is eyed by a foreign investor. If you intend short term trades at considerable risk .. yes go ahead this is better than CALF. Any inside information is already reflected in price. With a ROE of only 0.8% , the shareholders are better off by getting dividend than passing 80% of profits to retained earnings which earns only at a rate of .8% . The ROE has to be higher than AWPLR , by at least by 4% to even trigger your interest as an investor. But if you intend day-trading, then keep your ear to the ground by going to the brokers trading area to seek the market gossip and earn a couple of bucks a day if you are lucky.

Yes in SHL case there was a private placement & a right issue. both were at price 17 that was the reason behind SHL. when come to CALF what I see is the Dialog. they are holding around 98.8% of shares in CALF after mandatory offer. so public float is around 1.2%. & Dialog initially paid 28.70/- per share. now the right issue is offer 23.30/- demand went up & due to limited supply share went up and up.

About financial yes there is a huge loss showing in there statement BUT if you go detail you will see the main reason for loss is Impairment loss. check segments main loss sectors are Factoring segment & treasury segment. There cash flow is positive this time.
After all my view is risk is too high but with Dialog & there ability to new innovations this share have expectations.

This is just my view & not a recommendation. comments are always welcome from everyone

NAVPS is just Rs. 8/91 and trading at Rs. 61/- ???
One needs to be extremely brave and make a huge gamble to buy this stock @ 61/- when it’s NAVPS is just Rs. 8/91 and the company is making huge losses.
I am not saying Dialog is incapable of Turing around CALF. They can very well route some of their Group financial business requirements through CALF to turnaround the. Company. Then we need to ask ourselves why couldn’t their former owner Cargills failed to do so? It could be because they had the Bank to do so and it would be difficult to run 2 profitable financial institutions under the same group in today’s macro economic conditions.
In my opinion it is prudent to wait and see until Dialog turns around the company.

whats going with CALF...?

hirankb wrote:Highly speculative counter. neither the fundamentals or technicals indicate any inherent driver for this doubling in price after reporting huge reduction in net profits. May be the rise is due to the possibility of SHL is eyed by a foreign investor. If you intend short term trades at considerable risk .. yes go ahead this is better than CALF. Any inside information is already reflected in price. With a ROE of only 0.8% , the shareholders are better off by getting dividend than passing 80% of profits to retained earnings which earns only at a rate of .8% . The ROE has to be higher than AWPLR , by at least by 4% to even trigger your interest as an investor. But if you intend day-trading, then keep your ear to the ground by going to the brokers trading area to seek the market gossip and earn a couple of bucks a day if you are lucky.

On 25-May-2018 (yesterday) 5 pm the Colombo Trust Finance PLC (CALF) - EGM held at Sri Lanka Foundation Institute.

I asked the following question from the chairman:

"
CALF share price more than doubled in 3 months.

Feb 26th Price Rs 25
May 25th Price Rs 67

It's too good to be true.

On the other end,
1. company made loss at the P&L

2. Price to Book ratio is greater than 6, but should be less than 1

Mr. chairman, in your openion
What are the valid reasons (value additions) other than rights issue for this unusual trend in share price?
"

The answers I received from Chairman and Audience were:
"
1. They had no control (no manipulations) over share price.

2. Less shares and buying pressure may have created this unusual trend

3. Share holders may have trusted Dialog as the backing company
"

My concern is:
If no value additions to the share influenced to double it's price, after XDate of the rights issue, the market will correct itself and share holders will have to unload their stock before such corrections to avoid considerable losses.

In that note, with consideration I did not buy CALF shares targeting at the attractive rights issue.

With my short analysis CALF has a back up company which is Dialog. Someone buys this share because of Dialog exempt that there is no reason to buy this share in the market. Thus the company share will reduce to previous price limit after right issue some time less than Rs. 20. If you invest in short term this not a your investment. 

Ranga_17 wrote:With my short analysis CALF has a back up company which is Dialog. Someone buys this share because of Dialog exempt that there is no reason to buy this share in the market. Thus the company share will reduce to previous price limit after right issue some time less than Rs. 20. If you invest in short term this not a your investment. 

I too agree with you.

But, today (after ex-rights date 26-May-2018), the market price is around Rs 45 to Rs 54.

In my calculations, selling price (to break-even with 14% FD in 3 months after 1.12% cost) should be Rs. 50.60 (Buying price averaged to Rs 48.30).

Why the market takes time to correct itself?

Today CALF closing price is near Rs. 50 and no bids when closed the market. And most of buyers ask high price, the price will definitely go down on next couple of week. On other hand this share has less liquidity in the market because Dialog has captured near 99% of shares of the company as well as only 1% trading in the market which means share has less attraction for the public. Thus someone who buy this share who could not sell quickly in the market and high risk for price down of the share.