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Sri Lanka Equity Forum » Stock Market Talk » JANASHAKTHI INSURANCE COMPANY PLC

JANASHAKTHI INSURANCE COMPANY PLC

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61JANASHAKTHI INSURANCE COMPANY PLC - Page 4 Empty Re: JANASHAKTHI INSURANCE COMPANY PLC on Fri Feb 17, 2012 2:51 pm

Slstock


Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
@anubis wrote:JINS:

Total number of shares as at 06/30/2011: 363,000,132

Profits for the 6 months ending 31/12/2010: 624,910,000 EPS = 1.71
Profits for 6 months ending 06/30/2011: 218,115,000 EPS = 0.60 (the quarterly report says 0.77 but I don't know how they got it).

If you look at the two statements you can see that for the 6 months ending 31/12/2010, they have a 200Mil difference in "Other revenue" section (income statement). Let's be conservative and estimate an EPS of 0.60 for the next 6 months (ending 31/12/2011) - I suppose they'll publish this report soon.

So, our estimated EPS for the year ending 31/12/2011 is 1.2 per share. So, this share has a P/E around 10 for a price around 12 Rs.

The question is, is it a good P/E compared to other financial institutions / banks? analyse COMB.X, HNB.X, SAMP.N and see for yourself. Also compare dividends. A share can be "fundamental" (i.e not JUNK) but that doesn't mean its share price is always justified.

My personal opinion is JINS.N is an OK share for around 12 rupees (I already hold some quantity around 11.50 I think). But I can't say for sure that this share will not fall further (there are banks with much lower P/E values - this share "could" correct more - I don't know).

Cheers!

Anubis,
Their 2010 Year ending eps was 2.12. Usually for Insurance companies last quarter of the year earnings are higher than the previous quarters ( 6 Month up to June). I am not sure whether this year eps will drop as much as 1.2 . They already reported 0.77 eps for 2011 June . That means 6 month earning will be only Rs 0.43.

There is some investor sentiment issue due to owner family. CFVF and CSEC already had some issues . But JINS after an initial 2009 issue with the insurance board which was resolved quickly ( not a financial fraud) had so far been fraud free. I do not know whether there is any issue recently.

ANyway , jsut note the below facts

1) IPO price in 2008 was Rs 12. Now trading below IPO after 4 years!
2) I recall million of shares were traded when it ran over Rs 20.
3) In 2009 they paid RS 2 dividend. Afterward they have been paying RS 1 dividned. Dividend yield will be one of the highest at CSE for this share if they pay Rs 1 again and your share average is around Rs 12.






Last edited by slstock on Fri Feb 17, 2012 6:02 pm; edited 1 time in total

62JANASHAKTHI INSURANCE COMPANY PLC - Page 4 Empty Re: JANASHAKTHI INSURANCE COMPANY PLC on Fri Feb 17, 2012 3:04 pm

anubis


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@slstock: thank you very much for this valuable info! Smile

Experience matters!!! Cool

We'll see how it'll go down this year, hoping for the best!!! Basketball

(PS: I think you meant "Their 2010* Year ending eps was 2.12)

Cheers!

63JANASHAKTHI INSURANCE COMPANY PLC - Page 4 Empty Re: JANASHAKTHI INSURANCE COMPANY PLC on Fri Feb 17, 2012 3:07 pm

greedy


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@anubis wrote:JINS:

Total number of shares as at 06/30/2011: 363,000,132

Profits for the 6 months ending 31/12/2010: 624,910,000 EPS = 1.71
Profits for 6 months ending 06/30/2011: 218,115,000 EPS = 0.60 (the quarterly report says 0.77 but I don't know how they got it).

If you look at the two statements you can see that for the 6 months ending 31/12/2010, they have a 200Mil difference in "Other revenue" section (income statement). Let's be conservative and estimate an EPS of 0.60 for the next 6 months (ending 31/12/2011) - I suppose they'll publish this report soon.

So, our estimated EPS for the year ending 31/12/2011 is 1.2 per share. So, this share has a P/E around 10 for a price around 12 Rs.

The question is, is it a good P/E compared to other financial institutions / banks? analyse COMB.X, HNB.X, SAMP.N and see for yourself. Also compare dividends. A share can be "fundamental" (i.e not JUNK) but that doesn't mean its share price is always justified.

My personal opinion is JINS.N is an OK share for around 12 rupees (I already hold some quantity around 11.50 I think). But I can't say for sure that this share will not fall further (there are banks with much lower P/E values - this share "could" correct more - I don't know).

Cheers!

You have got the number wrong... it is not 218,115,000 it is 280,115,000... Refer quarterly accounts!

64JANASHAKTHI INSURANCE COMPANY PLC - Page 4 Empty Re: JANASHAKTHI INSURANCE COMPANY PLC on Fri Feb 17, 2012 3:13 pm

sriranga


Co-Admin
Dividend Paid after the IPO.
From their annual Report.
JANASHAKTHI INSURANCE COMPANY PLC - Page 4 Jin10

Interim Dividend announced in 2011.(May be that will be Final Dividend for 2011)

JANASHAKTHI INSURANCE COMPANY PLC - Page 4 Jin210



Last edited by sriranga on Fri Feb 17, 2012 3:14 pm; edited 1 time in total

http://sharemarket-srilanka.blogspot.co.uk/

65JANASHAKTHI INSURANCE COMPANY PLC - Page 4 Empty Re: JANASHAKTHI INSURANCE COMPANY PLC on Fri Feb 17, 2012 3:13 pm

anubis


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@greedy: many thanks for correcting this!

To be honest I was looking all over the place for what mistake I have made. I maintain separate spread-sheets for analysis and it seems I have entered the wrong number when populating the sheet (sadly, it's a manual process atm).

So, re-estimated EPS = 0.77 * 2 = 1.54

And according to slstock this could be even higher. So, it "looks" this share is undervalued at the moment. Again, no promises, it could go either ways - that's the nature.

Anyway, let's wait and see Basketball

Cheers!

66JANASHAKTHI INSURANCE COMPANY PLC - Page 4 Empty Re: JANASHAKTHI INSURANCE COMPANY PLC on Fri Feb 17, 2012 3:21 pm

raa


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
According to the CSE website..

Dividends were post IPO
4Q2008 - 0.50
4Q2009 - 2.00
1Q2010 - 1.00
1Q2011 - 1.00
1Q2012 - ?.??

So if one bought a 1,000 shares at IPO @ 12.00 and still held till today, they'd still be up because they have already received LKR 4,500.00 as dividends. That is a 9% return per year!!

If they sold at LKR 20.00 last year, then profit would be LKR 4,500 + LKR 8,000 = LKR 12,500.

I'm happy if i can get 9% a year on a share until I wait for the share price to run to LKR 24.00 and sell out. That is my plan.

67JANASHAKTHI INSURANCE COMPANY PLC - Page 4 Empty Re: JANASHAKTHI INSURANCE COMPANY PLC on Fri Feb 17, 2012 3:34 pm

anubis


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Continuing from sriranga's post on dividends:

[2010]
Profits = 770,348,000
EPS = 2.12
Dividend = 1

[2011] (so far)
Profits = 280,115,000
EPS = 0.77

Since they have given 1Rs dividend for 2011 already, I'd expect the EPS for 2011 to be around the same levels as in 2010 (at the least). In order to get that much EPS, their profits should be around (770,348,000 - 280,115,000) 490,233,000 for the last 6 months ended 31/12/2011. And the corresponding EPS for that period would be (490,233,000 / 363,000,132) 1.35

Note that I have assumed that the share count has remained constant throughout 2010 - 2011 (which i believe is the case - according to reports).

So, If they report an EPS of 1.35 or above in their next report (for the 6 months ending 31/12/2011), we can say the company is on track! Basketball

Or is this not a correct judgement? I'm not confident in the above way of reasoning (bit of a newbie still). Please correct me if I'm wrong.

Cheers!



Last edited by anubis on Fri Feb 17, 2012 3:36 pm; edited 2 times in total

68JANASHAKTHI INSURANCE COMPANY PLC - Page 4 Empty Re: JANASHAKTHI INSURANCE COMPANY PLC on Fri Feb 17, 2012 3:35 pm

greedy

greedy
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Investment portfolio of JINS mainly consist of treasury bills and treasury bonds. During stock market boom and lower interest rates in 2010 and 2011, JINS's was not on a good side. Because they did not benefit from the stock market boom. But now the opposite happening in 2012! So... will that benefit the company in some way?


I DO NOT HOLD JINS SHARES.

69JANASHAKTHI INSURANCE COMPANY PLC - Page 4 Empty Re: JANASHAKTHI INSURANCE COMPANY PLC on Fri Feb 17, 2012 3:37 pm

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
@anubis wrote:Continuing from sriranga's post on dividends:

[2010]
Profits = 770,348,000
EPS = 2.12
Dividend = 1

[2011] (so far)
Profits = 280,115,000
EPS = 0.77

Since they have given 1Rs dividend for 2011 already, I'd expect the EPS for 2011 to be around the same levels as in 2010 (at the least). In order to get that much EPS, their profits should be around (770,348,000 - 280,115,000) 490,233,000 for the last 6 months ended 31/12/2011. And the corresponding EPS for that period would be (490,233,000 / 363,000,132) 1.35

Note that I have assumed that the share count has remained constant throughout 2010 - 2011 (which i believe is the case - according to reports).

So, If they report an EPS of 1.35 or above in their next report, we can say the company is on track! Basketball

Or is this a not correct judgement? I'm not confident in the above way of reasoning (bit of a newbie still). Please correct me if I'm wrong.

Cheers!


Ofcourse if we they can show YoY growth that will be good. SO if they beat 2010 eps of 2.12 it will be good. Even oif they fall a bit short I guess they could give a Rs 1 Dividend. ( presuming nothing drastic happened within the last 6 months)

70JANASHAKTHI INSURANCE COMPANY PLC - Page 4 Empty Re: JANASHAKTHI INSURANCE COMPANY PLC on Fri Feb 17, 2012 3:56 pm

sriranga

sriranga
Co-Admin
Please see the following detail.
From that you can judge their past performance to certain extend.

JANASHAKTHI INSURANCE COMPANY PLC - Page 4 Jin310

http://sharemarket-srilanka.blogspot.co.uk/

71JANASHAKTHI INSURANCE COMPANY PLC - Page 4 Empty Re: JANASHAKTHI INSURANCE COMPANY PLC on Fri Feb 17, 2012 4:11 pm

anubis


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@sriranga: I used your summary to calculate the profits for each year (EPS * NO.SHARES) and then divided those profits from the current share count to get an effective EPS:
https://2img.net/h/oi43.tinypic.com/jafchw.png

As you can see, their EPS has been growing for last 3 years. Although before 2008 we can't see an exact pattern.

@admins: if you can please kindly embed that image into this post itself. For some reason embedding images doesn't work on chrome.

Cheers!

JANASHAKTHI INSURANCE COMPANY PLC - Page 4 Anu10

Done Anubis.
Thanks for your hardwork.

72JANASHAKTHI INSURANCE COMPANY PLC - Page 4 Empty Re: JANASHAKTHI INSURANCE COMPANY PLC on Fri Feb 17, 2012 4:16 pm

anubis


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@sriranga: thank you too, I've learned a lot from your posts Cool

Cheers!

73JANASHAKTHI INSURANCE COMPANY PLC - Page 4 Empty Re: JANASHAKTHI INSURANCE COMPANY PLC on Fri Feb 17, 2012 4:26 pm

raa


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Even if their EPS reduces, they have little forecasted expenditure in terms of cap ex and working capital requirements.

The data Anubis and Sriranga have displayed is really helpful. +reps...

You can see JINS maturing and normalising as a company in the last two years... trend volatility is less and growth prospects seem to be maturing or slowing down to an acceptable level.. I like to see these trends in choosing a safe company to invest.

The only thing missing is data for recurring income and recurring EPS which should give a clearer picture of the core business performance.

74JANASHAKTHI INSURANCE COMPANY PLC - Page 4 Empty Re: JANASHAKTHI INSURANCE COMPANY PLC on Fri Feb 17, 2012 4:33 pm

anubis


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Just out of curiosity I wanted to verify slstock's claim on second quarter results being much higher than the first. I only have reports for last two years (from http://www.cse.lk/companiesprofile/incomestatement.htm?id=941&symbol=JINS.N0000), and this is how it looks:

EPS for 6 months ending 30/06/2009: 0.73
EPS for 6 months ending 31/12/2009: 1.08 (change is 147%)

EPS for 6 months ending 30/06/2010: 0.40
EPS for 6 months ending 31/12/2010: 1.72 (change is 430%)

EPS for 6 months ending 30/06/2011: 0.77
EPS for 6 months ending 31/12/2011: ?? (change is ??%)

So, it seems slstock's claim is true. We'll have to wait and see how it'll work this year Basketball

Cheers!

75JANASHAKTHI INSURANCE COMPANY PLC - Page 4 Empty Re: JANASHAKTHI INSURANCE COMPANY PLC on Fri Feb 17, 2012 4:38 pm

greedy

greedy
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
More details of their income statement..... JINS income comes from two areas

1) Underwriting Results
2) Other Income (Mainly from their investments)

Lets see underwriting results for last four half years and their corresponding prior periods...

30/06/2011=====>LKR506,178k / LKR277,604K
31/12/2010=====>LKR603,066K / LKR601,802K
30/06/2010=====>LKR277,604K / LKR539,511K
21/12/2009=====>LKR391,651K / LKR366,864K

Based on this we can expect a better underwrtiting results for the six months ended 31/12/2011

Other Income for last four half years and corresponding prior periods.....

30/06/2011=====>LKR558,661k / LKR559,332K
31/12/2010=====>LKR707,066K / LKR522,673K
30/06/2010=====>LKR559,332K / LKR498,653K
21/12/2009=====>LKR518,422K / LKR544,756K


Net Profit for last four half years and corresponding prior periods.....

30/06/2011=====>LKR280,115k / LKR145,438KK
31/12/2010=====>LKR624,910K / LKR391,651K
30/06/2010=====>LKR145,438K / LKR265,622KK
21/12/2009=====>LKR391,651K / LKR366,864K

If you go through last year annual report, you will find JINS had a realised investment gain of LKR288mn ( This item is from sale of investments). This is most probably an one off item. Bacause if we look at 2009 and 2008 annual reports, the amount is immaterial

Net realised gains as per annual reports.

2010 AR =====> LKR288,709K
2009 AR =====> LKR3,340K
2008 AR =====> LKR7,101K
2007 AR =====> LKR (2,399K)

We could expect a drop in other income compared to previous year unless JINS has a similar gain this year too. But it little unlikely.

There is a possibility that higher underwriting results may offset this drop in other income!



Last edited by greedy on Fri Feb 17, 2012 4:41 pm; edited 1 time in total

76JANASHAKTHI INSURANCE COMPANY PLC - Page 4 Empty Re: JANASHAKTHI INSURANCE COMPANY PLC on Fri Feb 17, 2012 4:40 pm

greedy

greedy
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
My apologies Anubis.... while I was writing a reply you have posted a reply. Some of the information may have repeated in my reply.

77JANASHAKTHI INSURANCE COMPANY PLC - Page 4 Empty Re: JANASHAKTHI INSURANCE COMPANY PLC on Fri Feb 17, 2012 5:05 pm

monash

monash
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
I'm hearing some people claiming in the posts regarding JINS that director of the company Mr. Shafter purposely not allowing to appreciate share price of JINS which i see it as a baseless statement. Usually directors of the companies wants to appreciate the share price. Appreciate your views regarding this.. Smile

78JANASHAKTHI INSURANCE COMPANY PLC - Page 4 Empty Re: JANASHAKTHI INSURANCE COMPANY PLC on Fri Feb 17, 2012 5:37 pm

anubis


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@greedy: no worries, many thanks for your analysis! Smile

79JANASHAKTHI INSURANCE COMPANY PLC - Page 4 Empty Re: JANASHAKTHI INSURANCE COMPANY PLC on Fri Feb 17, 2012 5:52 pm

Backstage

Backstage
Moderator
Moderator
Last year, there was a big increase in new car sales. That plus higher interest rates scenario and so close to dividend pay out , looks very attractive to me.

I am averaging on a share for the first time. Dollar averaging that I learned from a Sriranga post.

Thanks for all the above post. Very interesting to lay folk, like me.

Guys (gender neutral), wish me and JINS luck

80JANASHAKTHI INSURANCE COMPANY PLC - Page 4 Empty Re: JANASHAKTHI INSURANCE COMPANY PLC on Fri Feb 17, 2012 6:13 pm

Chinwi

Chinwi
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
@greedy wrote:Investment portfolio of JINS mainly consist of treasury bills and treasury bonds. During stock market boom and lower interest rates in 2010 and 2011, JINS's was not on a good side. Because they did not benefit from the stock market boom. But now the opposite happening in 2012! So... will that benefit the company in some way?

This is a very good and clever observation / understanding.
This story is same for others in the same group. CFVF, CSEC.
I think we all have knowledge to guess the outcome.

Can you remember what and how CFVF earned during 2009 ? Not from falling shares but from TB etc.

Mr. Shafter was very adamant in this case. When the shareholders pushed him last year - 2010 AGM - to invest billions they had with CFVF in shares to get better earnings in 2011/12 Twisted Evil he (with his sister & others) never showed any intention to changed his stand . He refused and continued keeping the billions in TBs and other instruments.
I think they are going to reap the benefits this time too.

Note : I have a mixture of all 3 , JINS+CFVF+CSEC in portfolios managed by me ~ 100,000.

81JANASHAKTHI INSURANCE COMPANY PLC - Page 4 Empty Re: JANASHAKTHI INSURANCE COMPANY PLC on Fri Feb 17, 2012 6:18 pm

sriranga

sriranga
Co-Admin
@Chinwi wrote:
@greedy wrote:Investment portfolio of JINS mainly consist of treasury bills and treasury bonds. During stock market boom and lower interest rates in 2010 and 2011, JINS's was not on a good side. Because they did not benefit from the stock market boom. But now the opposite happening in 2012! So... will that benefit the company in some way?

This is a very good and clever observation / understanding.
This story is same for others in the same group. CFVF, CSEC.
I think we all have knowledge to guess the outcome.

Can you remember what and how CFVF earned during 2009 ? Not from falling shares but from TB etc.

Mr. Shafter was very adamant in this case. When the shareholders pushed him last year - 2010 AGM - to invest billions they had with CFVF in shares to get better earnings in 2011/12 Twisted Evil he (with his sister & others) never showed any intention to changed his stand . He refused and continued keeping the billions in TBs and other instruments.
I think they are going to reap the benefits this time too.

Note : I have a mixture of all 3 , JINS+CFVF+CSEC in portfolios managed by me ~ 100,000.

Thanks greedy and chinwi regarding the above valuable points.

http://sharemarket-srilanka.blogspot.co.uk/

82JANASHAKTHI INSURANCE COMPANY PLC - Page 4 Empty Re: JANASHAKTHI INSURANCE COMPANY PLC on Fri Feb 17, 2012 9:35 pm

Chinwi

Chinwi
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
@sriranga wrote:
@Chinwi wrote:
@greedy wrote:Investment portfolio of JINS mainly consist of treasury bills and treasury bonds. During stock market boom and lower interest rates in 2010 and 2011, JINS's was not on a good side. Because they did not benefit from the stock market boom. But now the opposite happening in 2012! So... will that benefit the company in some way?

This is a very good and clever observation / understanding.
This story is same for others in the same group. CFVF, CSEC.
I think we all have knowledge to guess the outcome.

Can you remember what and how CFVF earned during 2009 ? Not from falling shares but from TB etc.

Mr. Shafter was very adamant in this case. When the shareholders pushed him last year - 2010 AGM - to invest billions they had with CFVF in shares to get better earnings in 2011/12 Twisted Evil he (with his sister & others) never showed any intention to changed his stand . He refused and continued keeping the billions in TBs and other instruments.
I think they are going to reap the benefits this time too.

Note : I have a mixture of all 3 , JINS+CFVF+CSEC in portfolios managed by me ~ 100,000.

Thanks greedy and chinwi regarding the above valuable points.


Somehow , we should remember TB rates were much higher than now in 2009.

83JANASHAKTHI INSURANCE COMPANY PLC - Page 4 Empty Re: JANASHAKTHI INSURANCE COMPANY PLC on Fri Feb 17, 2012 9:56 pm

Gaja


Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
really good discussions, i hope this kind of discussions will give much positive outlook to the forum.

84JANASHAKTHI INSURANCE COMPANY PLC - Page 4 Empty Re: JANASHAKTHI INSURANCE COMPANY PLC on Sat Feb 18, 2012 2:59 pm

greedy

greedy
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@Chinwi wrote:
@sriranga wrote:
@Chinwi wrote:
@greedy wrote:Investment portfolio of JINS mainly consist of treasury bills and treasury bonds. During stock market boom and lower interest rates in 2010 and 2011, JINS's was not on a good side. Because they did not benefit from the stock market boom. But now the opposite happening in 2012! So... will that benefit the company in some way?

This is a very good and clever observation / understanding.
This story is same for others in the same group. CFVF, CSEC.
I think we all have knowledge to guess the outcome.

Can you remember what and how CFVF earned during 2009 ? Not from falling shares but from TB etc.

Mr. Shafter was very adamant in this case. When the shareholders pushed him last year - 2010 AGM - to invest billions they had with CFVF in shares to get better earnings in 2011/12 Twisted Evil he (with his sister & others) never showed any intention to changed his stand . He refused and continued keeping the billions in TBs and other instruments.
I think they are going to reap the benefits this time too.

Note : I have a mixture of all 3 , JINS+CFVF+CSEC in portfolios managed by me ~ 100,000.

Thanks greedy and chinwi regarding the above valuable points.


Somehow , we should remember TB rates were much higher than now in 2009.

Agreed... Government securities attract lower rates at present compared to 2009. But it is increasing recently. We do not have the details of JINS Treasury bill and Bond Portfolio (Maturity Dates, Type of Security, Duration etc.). Therefore it'll be difficult to make a prediction. However, with the implementation of new accounting standards these details will be available in the annual reports. Making the job some what easy Smile

Treasury bill and treasury bond yield rates from primary market below....

JANASHAKTHI INSURANCE COMPANY PLC - Page 4 Treasu10



85JANASHAKTHI INSURANCE COMPANY PLC - Page 4 Empty Re: JANASHAKTHI INSURANCE COMPANY PLC on Tue Feb 21, 2012 10:58 am

Chinwi

Chinwi
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Latest CSEC report is showing other ways.
They have had bad business than last year + over 100 million for fall in values and another 100+ million for doubtful advances creating losses at the bottom line .

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