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Sri Lanka Equity Forum » Stock Market Talk » CSE from Dawn of Peace to Rebirth of Terror

CSE from Dawn of Peace to Rebirth of Terror

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1CSE from Dawn of Peace to Rebirth of Terror Empty CSE from Dawn of Peace to Rebirth of Terror on Tue May 21, 2019 9:41 pm

Quibit

Quibit
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
The two ASI movement charts below will explain how country economy has moved during last 10 years.

First chart show the ASI movement during the period from the death of Velupulle Prabakaran and dawn of peace 2009 upto January 2015 in which President Sirisena took over the country after winning the Presidential electionwith Mahinda Rajapakse. As you can see market has gained significantly during this period backed by stong economic fundamentals. All Share Price index performed exceptionally well, high corporate earning resulting from lower inflation and low borrowing costs. Exchange rates were well managed. Simply to say Mahinda Rajapakse not only handed over a peaceful country to Maithripala Sirisena, but he also a prosperous country with a booming economy and a vibrant stock market.

CSE from Dawn of Peace to Rebirth of Terror Screen10


Now look at the second chart below. This simply indicate the economic mismanagement during the period of the President Sirisens's government which is still not over. Government under the pretext of Yahaplanaya blatantly mismanaged the economy resulting in destruction of the strong economy that was handed over by Present Rajapakse in 2015. Short sighted economic and fiscal policies resulted in lower corporate earnings, high inflation, high borrowing cost and significant devaluation of the rupee during this period. End result of this action was the crashing stock market. From a high of 7000 ASI now down to 5000 levels. The turn of events in April 2019 simulate the scenario opposite to the dawn of peace in 2009. Question is where is the bottom and what would be the ultimate consequences of rebirth of terrerism to the performance of the stock market and ASI.

CSE from Dawn of Peace to Rebirth of Terror Screen11

My personal view is ASI is likely to get close to the level of 2009 unless something good happens before 2021.



Last edited by Quibit on Wed Oct 30, 2019 5:15 pm; edited 2 times in total

mark

mark
Expert
Expert
I guess it wil reach 5000 levels in mid term and boune back, if terrorism prevails, then 4500 will be easily broken.
My gieve is about epf holding the bra without letting boobs come down, lets

Yahapalanaya

Yahapalanaya
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@mark wrote:I guess it wil reach 5000 levels in mid term and boune back, if terrorism prevails, then 4500 will be easily broken.
My gieve is about epf holding the bra without letting boobs come down, lets
Here +rep

soileconomy

soileconomy
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Quibit wrote:The two ASI movement charts below will explain how country economy has moved during last 10 years.

First chart show the ASI movement during the period from the death of Velupulle Prabakaran and dawn of peace 2009 upto January 2015 in which President Sirisena took over the country after winning the Presidential electionwith Mahinda Rajapakse. As you can see market has gained significantly during this period backed by stong economic fundamentals. All Share Price index performed exceptionally well, high corporate earning resulting from lower inflation and low borrowing costs. Exchange rates were well managed. Simply to say Mahinda Rajapakse not only handed over a peaceful country to Maithripala Sirisena, but he also a prosperous country with a booming economy and a vibrant stock market.

CSE from Dawn of Peace to Rebirth of Terror Screen10


Now look at the second chart below. This simply indicate the economic mismanagement during the period of the President Sirisens's government which is still not over. Government under the pretext of Yahaplanaya blatantly mismanaged the economy resulting in destruction of the strong economy that was handed over by Present Rajapakse in 2015. Short sighted economic and fiscal policies resulted in lower corporate earnings, high inflation, high borrowing cost and significant devaluation of the rupee during this period. End result of this action was the crashing stock market. From a high of 7000 ASI now down to 5000 levels. The turn of events in April 2019 simulate the scenario opposite to the dawn of peace in 2009. Question is where is the bottom and what would be the ultimate consequences of rebirth of terrerism to the performance of the stock market and ASI.

CSE from Dawn of Peace to Rebirth of Terror Screen11

My personal view is ASI is likely to get close to the level of 2009 unless something good happens before 2021.
Every citizen is suffering.earlier it was financially.now it is socially.

Sstar

Sstar
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Bottom of the barrel we have seen in 2009 was around ASI 2500 level. If we consider 2019 April ASI 5000 as the beginning of the bottom, then at 20% retracement ASI should fall to 4000 level. Lets keep our fingers crossed and see where the market is going to end. EPF blood money seems to have saved the market from imminent fall to these level.

Its quite obvious why EPF targeted one of the most capitalized company in the CSE to control the market. I am not surprised if EPF buys shares of JKH, SLT and other highly capitalized companies so that it could hold the ASI with minimum investment and minimum visibilty to the general public. How long can government artificially control the market is the question.

soileconomy

soileconomy
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Without support of earnings market cannot keep its upward momentum.sustainable fact is impressive company earnings

Maharaja


Expert
Expert
Maharaja knows EPF cannot absorb the amount of foreign selling available. 4673 level will be reached !
Fundamentally Market will adjust. Wait ands see.

Maharaja

Yahapalanaya

Yahapalanaya
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@soileconomy wrote:Without support of earnings market cannot keep its upward momentum.sustainable fact is impressive company earnings
Open eye and see the current earnings of CDB, LFIN, CIND, AAIC, GRAN, TAFL, RHTL, OSEA, DIAL,..........etc

Bro. Learn to swim in both bear or bull market rather than finding other's mistakes.

Smile Smile Smile

Yahapalanaya

Yahapalanaya
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Yahapalanaya wrote:
@soileconomy wrote:Without support of earnings market cannot keep its upward momentum.sustainable fact is impressive company earnings
Open eye and see the current earnings of CDB, LFIN, CIND, AAIC, GRAN, TAFL, RHTL, OSEA, DIAL,..........etc

Bro. Learn to swim in both bear or bull market rather than finding other's mistakes.

Smile Smile Smile
Mr.Soil VFIN result also out, FYI

10CSE from Dawn of Peace to Rebirth of Terror Empty Re: CSE from Dawn of Peace to Rebirth of Terror on Sat Oct 12, 2019 11:17 am

ChooBoy


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
What is happening now?

Quibit

Quibit
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Hope of change turning into investor confidence resulting in market recovery. Market will rise for next 3 months before it start adjusting. Good times to come.

12CSE from Dawn of Peace to Rebirth of Terror Empty Re: CSE from Dawn of Peace to Rebirth of Terror on Wed Oct 30, 2019 10:17 am

Uaecoindubai

Uaecoindubai
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
80% of companies doesnt have reasonable value to buy based on international valuations strategy. In simply retailers should avoid buying 80% companies based on current and past performances of companies. Good investment means at least you should able to safeguard your capital at the end.

Teller said is said

13CSE from Dawn of Peace to Rebirth of Terror Empty Re: CSE from Dawn of Peace to Rebirth of Terror on Wed Oct 30, 2019 10:19 am

soileconomy

soileconomy
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Quibit wrote:Hope of change turning into investor confidence resulting in market recovery. Market will rise for next 3 months before it start adjusting. Good times to come.
Till the presidential election market may volatile ?

14CSE from Dawn of Peace to Rebirth of Terror Empty Re: CSE from Dawn of Peace to Rebirth of Terror on Wed Oct 30, 2019 11:10 am

Arrowrisk

Arrowrisk
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@soileconomy wrote:
@Quibit wrote:Hope of change turning into investor confidence resulting in market recovery. Market will rise for next 3 months before it start adjusting. Good times to come.
Till the presidential election market may volatile ?

ASI will reach to 5000 close to the election.. Shocked

15CSE from Dawn of Peace to Rebirth of Terror Empty Re: CSE from Dawn of Peace to Rebirth of Terror on Wed Oct 30, 2019 11:40 am

soileconomy

soileconomy
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Arrowrisk wrote:
@soileconomy wrote:
@Quibit wrote:Hope of change turning into investor confidence resulting in market recovery. Market will rise for next 3 months before it start adjusting. Good times to come.
Till the presidential election market may volatile ?

ASI will reach to 5000 close to the election.. Shocked
Oh! Shocked

16CSE from Dawn of Peace to Rebirth of Terror Empty Re: CSE from Dawn of Peace to Rebirth of Terror on Wed Oct 30, 2019 12:45 pm

Quibit

Quibit
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
CSE from Dawn of Peace to Rebirth of Terror Screen13

Since May 2019 (After Terror) Market was on recovery mode accelerated by the hope of change.

samaritan


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Arrowrisk wrote:
@soileconomy wrote:
@Quibit wrote:Hope of change turning into investor confidence resulting in market recovery. Market will rise for next 3 months before it start adjusting. Good times to come.
Till the presidential election market may volatile ?

ASI will reach to 5000 close to the election.. :shock:
This could only happen if Sajith becomes President, but the chances of him becoming President is very remote, in other words only in his dreams.

Hewagak


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
@Arrowrisk wrote:
@soileconomy wrote:
@Quibit wrote:Hope of change turning into investor confidence resulting in market recovery. Market will rise for next 3 months before it start adjusting. Good times to come.
Till the presidential election market may volatile ?

ASI will reach to 5000 close to the election.. Shocked
Yes @Arrowrisk I agree if Sajith comes Yes..... But I dont think again there people to vote Sajith n Yahapalana horu.... So dont scare the investors. If you see last one hour buying pressure today you can see how the market coming down to ASI 5000.

Arrowrisk

Arrowrisk
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@Hewagak wrote:
@Arrowrisk wrote:
@soileconomy wrote:
@Quibit wrote:Hope of change turning into investor confidence resulting in market recovery. Market will rise for next 3 months before it start adjusting. Good times to come.
Till the presidential election market may volatile ?

ASI will reach to 5000 close to the election.. Shocked
Yes @Arrowrisk I agree if Sajith comes Yes..... But I dont think again there people to vote Sajith n Yahapalana horu.... So dont scare the investors. If you see last one hour buying pressure today you can see how the market coming down to ASI 5000.

Brother, I will not support any candidate either GR or SP since both are corrupt and master in deal making for the betterment of their families. Coming two weeks ASI will go further down from present level

Eng Krishantha

Eng Krishantha
Expert
Expert
@Arrowrisk wrote:
@Hewagak wrote:
@Arrowrisk wrote:
@soileconomy wrote:
@Quibit wrote:Hope of change turning into investor confidence resulting in market recovery. Market will rise for next 3 months before it start adjusting. Good times to come.
Till the presidential election market may volatile ?

ASI will reach to 5000 close to the election.. Shocked
Yes @Arrowrisk I agree if Sajith comes Yes..... But I dont think again there people to vote Sajith n Yahapalana horu.... So dont scare the investors. If you see last one hour buying pressure today you can see how the market coming down to ASI 5000.

Brother, I will not support any candidate either GR or SP since both are corrupt and master in deal making for the betterment of their families. Coming two weeks ASI will go further down from present level
Did you miss the train, what ever said that train never come again.  Laughing Laughing Laughing

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