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Sri Lanka Equity Forum » Stock Market Talk » TOKYO CEMENT COMPANY (LANKA) PLC

TOKYO CEMENT COMPANY (LANKA) PLC

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101TOKYO CEMENT COMPANY (LANKA) PLC  - Page 6 Empty Re: TOKYO CEMENT COMPANY (LANKA) PLC on Thu Jun 11, 2020 1:42 pm

Miss-Sangeetha


Moderator
Moderator
@Teller wrote:Avoid tokyo , its struggling with cash flow.
But your Boss in the TOKYO collecting side and struggling to Collect the TOKYO Know?

102TOKYO CEMENT COMPANY (LANKA) PLC  - Page 6 Empty Re: TOKYO CEMENT COMPANY (LANKA) PLC on Thu Jun 11, 2020 1:48 pm

Cliff777


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
Few days ago he said TKYO is a good buy and now suddenly changed his mind. lol

103TOKYO CEMENT COMPANY (LANKA) PLC  - Page 6 Empty Re: TOKYO CEMENT COMPANY (LANKA) PLC on Thu Jun 11, 2020 1:54 pm

dakzsl


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
guys just check past comments without pointing out at each others

104TOKYO CEMENT COMPANY (LANKA) PLC  - Page 6 Empty Re: TOKYO CEMENT COMPANY (LANKA) PLC on Thu Jun 11, 2020 2:04 pm

Teller


Moderator
Moderator
When i says its a good buy based on the trading price . Now price moved to high and in recently Manipulators are dumping the share . I got the info about coming report last night, thats the reason i told my opinion . Remember tellers radar system in alert every where.

105TOKYO CEMENT COMPANY (LANKA) PLC  - Page 6 Empty Re: TOKYO CEMENT COMPANY (LANKA) PLC on Thu Jun 11, 2020 6:54 pm

roshan1039


Moderator
Moderator
Tkyo will hit 35 soon
Do your own studies and buy

106TOKYO CEMENT COMPANY (LANKA) PLC  - Page 6 Empty Re: TOKYO CEMENT COMPANY (LANKA) PLC on Thu Jun 11, 2020 8:19 pm

EquityChamp

EquityChamp
Moderator
Moderator
I can see a good trend reversal in TKYO-N chart despite low volumes & price weaknesses during last three days. If you have bought already better to hold. Others better to study the market behavior and decide.

TOKYO CEMENT COMPANY (LANKA) PLC  - Page 6 Tkyo-n10

107TOKYO CEMENT COMPANY (LANKA) PLC  - Page 6 Empty Re: TOKYO CEMENT COMPANY (LANKA) PLC on Thu Jun 11, 2020 9:51 pm

EquityChamp

EquityChamp
Moderator
Moderator
I thought its good to wright some thing more on TKYO highlighting what happened, what is happening now and what will happen in future quarters.

TKYO has made a profit of 1.35bn for the 1H of 2019 compared to 0.48bn loss during the preceding year. Why they have made losses was due to increase in raw material cost and the inability to pass down the cost increases to consumer due to controlled cement prices. Then in 2019 government has allowed to increase cement prices by 100/- per bag and this has helped the company to increase the gross margins from 20% to 30% in 2019 and that's where the profits are made.

The 2 Half results announced to investors in early November and investors reacted very positively to it and that's where you all have seen the price went up from 20s to 50+ hoping a similar report in Q3 as well.

Then Q3 report was released on 29th Jan. The third quarter revenue was 1.8bn lower to 2nd quarter and as a result 543mn drop in 3rd quarter PAT to record 260mn. Investors reacted very negatively to this quarter result which brought back the stock price again to 20s with the help of Covid 19 as well. Now do we understand why 3rd quarter revenue was low. We had the presidential election going. After that a government change too happened. In the meantime lot of construction projects were also either moved slowly or put on hold so its obvious a reduction in demand for cement.

Now the fourth quarter report is due. Ideally it should be out by 31st May but delayed this time for some reason. This may be due to lockdowns for two months effectively put things on hold but it will be out by next week most probably. What can we see in that report for Q4. Can it be worse than Q3? As most of us know the delayed project works restarted during Q1 and was running smoothly until such time lock downs happened mid March. But I don't believe the two week's impact can create a major revenue loss for TKYO hence they should report more than 260mn for Q4. Even if it is 300mn still up by 50% compared to the same quarter of 2019. This will give TKYO a full year profit of close to 2bn compared to the loss of 464mn for 2019.

Now the interesting scenario of 2020. Q1 2020 will be no doubt a difficult quarter for them given that a lockdown of two months will significantly reduce their income and I am expecting a loss for them. But however from Q2 onwards what are their for TKYO for positives. The biggest one will be the imposition of higher cess on imported cement that will definitely increase their sales volumes. Next is after the conclusion of GE in early August the government will surely ramp up the construction sector which was in limbo during past five years or so. This again will be positive for TKYO. So all in all what if they manage to record the same PAT as of 2019/2020 in 2020/21 with all these developments. Then what should be the price be. Think all these and try to factor it in to the share price and see the value. Then you can decide whether the current price is an investment mode or a forget-about-it mode.

Good luck

108TOKYO CEMENT COMPANY (LANKA) PLC  - Page 6 Empty Re: TOKYO CEMENT COMPANY (LANKA) PLC on Thu Jun 18, 2020 11:40 am

EquityChamp

EquityChamp
Moderator
Moderator
As of 18th June TKYO-N is still trading @ 30/- Quantities are being offered @ 30/- as well as are being grabbed @ 30/- also. Looks like a consolidation is happening @ 30/-.

109TOKYO CEMENT COMPANY (LANKA) PLC  - Page 6 Empty Re: TOKYO CEMENT COMPANY (LANKA) PLC on Fri Jun 19, 2020 2:42 pm

EquityChamp

EquityChamp
Moderator
Moderator
After a fair deal of consolidation the stock price today moved to 31/-. Will this be the initial mark for the resumption of the upward movement started few weeks back.

110TOKYO CEMENT COMPANY (LANKA) PLC  - Page 6 Empty Re: TOKYO CEMENT COMPANY (LANKA) PLC on Thu Jun 25, 2020 5:21 pm

EquityChamp

EquityChamp
Moderator
Moderator
After a phase of consolidation TKYO today pass the line beyond 33/- despite continued foreign selling. Investors are advised to HOLD still as going forward we may see increase in activity levels towards a positive territory.

wealth123 likes this post

111TOKYO CEMENT COMPANY (LANKA) PLC  - Page 6 Empty Re: TOKYO CEMENT COMPANY (LANKA) PLC on Wed Jul 01, 2020 3:44 pm

EquityChamp

EquityChamp
Moderator
Moderator
Huge activity in non voting share today. Over six million shares traded gaining 1/- within the day. I am not sure but some foreign investor exit can be within the high volume. Voting share still trading strongly closing above 34/- today.

112TOKYO CEMENT COMPANY (LANKA) PLC  - Page 6 Empty Re: TOKYO CEMENT COMPANY (LANKA) PLC on Wed Jul 01, 2020 3:53 pm

Hewagak


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
@EquityChamp wrote:Huge activity in non voting share today. Over six million shares traded gaining 1/- within the day. I am not sure but some foreign investor exit can be within the high volume. Voting share still trading strongly closing above 34/- today.

Do you think it to buy at current price level? 

Looks like local inverters collecting the shares? not sure this will again run like last yr Nov.

113TOKYO CEMENT COMPANY (LANKA) PLC  - Page 6 Empty Re: TOKYO CEMENT COMPANY (LANKA) PLC on Wed Jul 01, 2020 8:29 pm

EquityChamp

EquityChamp
Moderator
Moderator
Its confirmed now. 5.7mn shares sold by foreign parties and locals bought probably institutional investors. This stock follows most of the others stocks where large scale foreign exit is happening now. Interesting to see that local investors are stepping in big time.

114TOKYO CEMENT COMPANY (LANKA) PLC  - Page 6 Empty Re: TOKYO CEMENT COMPANY (LANKA) PLC on Mon Jul 06, 2020 8:42 pm

Ekanayake90

Ekanayake90
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
On the way to 40’s !!!
Will it break 35 tomorrow .....TOKYO CEMENT COMPANY (LANKA) PLC  - Page 6 6f380d10

roshan1039 and thestock123 like this post

115TOKYO CEMENT COMPANY (LANKA) PLC  - Page 6 Empty Re: TOKYO CEMENT COMPANY (LANKA) PLC on Wed Jul 08, 2020 11:08 pm

Ekanayake90

Ekanayake90
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
 A stronger LKR exchange rate, lower lending rates and the removal of Cess for clinker imports are expected to bode well for TKYO. With the anticipated commencement of large-scale infrastructure projects coupled with other private projects, cement consumptions levels are expected to pick-up from FY22E, which will result in a material increase in TKYO’s capacity utilisation levels, and thereby improved GP margins.

Based on a DCF valuation, we have derived a 12M target price of Rs.39.1 for the voting share, which suggests a potential upside of ~17% to current price levels, and maintain the rating for the share as BUY


-CT CLSA-

116TOKYO CEMENT COMPANY (LANKA) PLC  - Page 6 Empty Re: TOKYO CEMENT COMPANY (LANKA) PLC on Wed Jul 08, 2020 11:24 pm

Ekanayake90

Ekanayake90
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
TOKYO CEMENT COMPANY (LANKA) PLC  - Page 6 A3252b10
@Ekanayake90 wrote: A stronger LKR exchange rate, lower lending rates and the removal of Cess for clinker imports are expected to bode well for TKYO. With the anticipated commencement of large-scale infrastructure projects coupled with other private projects, cement consumptions levels are expected to pick-up from FY22E, which will result in a material increase in TKYO’s capacity utilisation levels, and thereby improved GP margins.

Based on a DCF valuation, we have derived a 12M target price of Rs.39.1 for the voting share, which suggests a potential upside of ~17% to current price levels, and maintain the rating for the share as BUY


-CT CLSA-

svkiruba8@gmail.com likes this post

117TOKYO CEMENT COMPANY (LANKA) PLC  - Page 6 Empty Re: TOKYO CEMENT COMPANY (LANKA) PLC on Thu Jul 09, 2020 9:54 am

Equityinvestor


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@Ekanayake90 wrote:TOKYO CEMENT COMPANY (LANKA) PLC  - Page 6 A3252b10
@Ekanayake90 wrote: A stronger LKR exchange rate, lower lending rates and the removal of Cess for clinker imports are expected to bode well for TKYO. With the anticipated commencement of large-scale infrastructure projects coupled with other private projects, cement consumptions levels are expected to pick-up from FY22E, which will result in a material increase in TKYO’s capacity utilisation levels, and thereby improved GP margins.

Based on a DCF valuation, we have derived a 12M target price of Rs.39.1 for the voting share, which suggests a potential upside of ~17% to current price levels, and maintain the rating for the share as BUY


-CT CLSA-

Forget about 12 months..this will reach 37-38 at the election, if all goes well (no second wave etc)...

Hopefully a Dividend also upcoming.

118TOKYO CEMENT COMPANY (LANKA) PLC  - Page 6 Empty Re: TOKYO CEMENT COMPANY (LANKA) PLC on Thu Jul 09, 2020 4:56 pm

Ekanayake90

Ekanayake90
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@Equityinvestor wrote:
@Ekanayake90 wrote:TOKYO CEMENT COMPANY (LANKA) PLC  - Page 6 A3252b10
@Ekanayake90 wrote: A stronger LKR exchange rate, lower lending rates and the removal of Cess for clinker imports are expected to bode well for TKYO. With the anticipated commencement of large-scale infrastructure projects coupled with other private projects, cement consumptions levels are expected to pick-up from FY22E, which will result in a material increase in TKYO’s capacity utilisation levels, and thereby improved GP margins.

Based on a DCF valuation, we have derived a 12M target price of Rs.39.1 for the voting share, which suggests a potential upside of ~17% to current price levels, and maintain the rating for the share as BUY


-CT CLSA-

Forget about 12 months..this will reach 37-38 at the election, if all goes well (no second wave etc)...

Hopefully a Dividend also upcoming.

Yes. This will go pass 40 before the elections . 
It’s hard to set a 12 months price for now , but when considering all the above factors this should break previous heights!

119TOKYO CEMENT COMPANY (LANKA) PLC  - Page 6 Empty Re: TOKYO CEMENT COMPANY (LANKA) PLC on Tue Jul 21, 2020 4:46 pm

wallstreetguy


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Tokyo results are out 

https://cdn.cse.lk/cmt/upload_report_file/688_1595322635089.pdf

It seems there are getting ready for a dividend!

Ekanayake90 and Sandaruwan mk like this post

120TOKYO CEMENT COMPANY (LANKA) PLC  - Page 6 Empty Re: TOKYO CEMENT COMPANY (LANKA) PLC on Tue Jul 21, 2020 8:50 pm

Ekanayake90

Ekanayake90
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Perfect timing! This will add fuel to the fire 🔥 TOKYO CEMENT COMPANY (LANKA) PLC  - Page 6 Bccbbd10

121TOKYO CEMENT COMPANY (LANKA) PLC  - Page 6 Empty Re: TOKYO CEMENT COMPANY (LANKA) PLC on Wed Jul 29, 2020 8:48 pm

EquityChamp

EquityChamp
Moderator
Moderator
@EquityChamp wrote:I thought its good to wright some thing more on TKYO highlighting what happened, what is happening now and what will happen in future quarters.

TKYO has made a profit of 1.35bn for the 1H of 2019 compared to 0.48bn loss during the preceding year. Why they have made losses was due to increase in raw material cost and the inability to pass down the cost increases to consumer due to controlled cement prices. Then in 2019 government has allowed to increase cement prices by 100/- per bag and this has helped the company to increase the gross margins from 20% to 30% in 2019 and that's where the profits are made.

The 2 Half results announced to investors in early November and investors reacted very positively to it and that's where you all have seen the price went up from 20s to 50+ hoping a similar report in Q3 as well.

Then Q3 report was released on 29th Jan. The third quarter revenue was 1.8bn lower to 2nd quarter and as a result 543mn drop in 3rd quarter PAT to record 260mn. Investors reacted very negatively to this quarter result which brought back the stock price again to 20s with the help of Covid 19 as well. Now do we understand why 3rd quarter revenue was low. We had the presidential election going. After that a government change too happened. In the meantime lot of construction projects were also either moved slowly or put on hold so its obvious a reduction in demand for cement.

Now the fourth quarter report is due. Ideally it should be out by 31st May but delayed this time for some reason. This may be due to lockdowns for two months effectively put things on hold but it will be out by next week most probably. What can we see in that report for Q4. Can it be worse than Q3? As most of us know the delayed project works restarted during Q1 and was running smoothly until such time lock downs happened mid March. But I don't believe the two week's impact can create a major revenue loss for TKYO hence they should report more than 260mn for Q4. Even if it is 300mn still up by 50% compared to the same quarter of 2019. This will give TKYO a full year profit of close to 2bn compared to the loss of 464mn for 2019.

Now the interesting scenario of 2020. Q1 2020 will be no doubt a difficult quarter for them given that a lockdown of two months will significantly reduce their income and I am expecting a loss for them. But however from Q2 onwards what are their for TKYO for positives. The biggest one will be the imposition of higher cess on imported cement that will definitely increase their sales volumes. Next is after the conclusion of GE in early August the government will surely ramp up the construction sector which was in limbo during past five years or so. This again will be positive for TKYO. So all in all what if they manage to record the same PAT as of 2019/2020 in 2020/21 with all these developments. Then what should be the price be. Think all these and try to factor it in to the share price and see the value. Then you can decide whether the current price is an investment mode or a forget-about-it mode.

Good luck

So TKYO has generated good profits as expected mainly due to cost efficiencies. Its interesting to see that investor appetite on TKYO is so strong knowing that they are going to make losses in Apr - June quarters. Well I smell that TKYO will enter to 40s once again in the weeks to come.

122TOKYO CEMENT COMPANY (LANKA) PLC  - Page 6 Empty Re: TOKYO CEMENT COMPANY (LANKA) PLC on Wed Jul 29, 2020 9:04 pm

Baba2020


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
I feel they will make profit for June.

123TOKYO CEMENT COMPANY (LANKA) PLC  - Page 6 Empty Re: TOKYO CEMENT COMPANY (LANKA) PLC on Wed Jul 29, 2020 9:09 pm

Cliff777


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
TKYO will do well in the June quarter too and continue to do so because of the import tax on cement and extra low interest rates.

Baba2020 likes this post

124TOKYO CEMENT COMPANY (LANKA) PLC  - Page 6 Empty Re: TOKYO CEMENT COMPANY (LANKA) PLC on Wed Jul 29, 2020 9:20 pm

xhunter

xhunter
Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
TOKYO CEMENT COMPANY (LANKA) PLC  - Page 6 Captur11
what a "Radar system" this guy has! excellent.

125TOKYO CEMENT COMPANY (LANKA) PLC  - Page 6 Empty Re: TOKYO CEMENT COMPANY (LANKA) PLC on Wed Jul 29, 2020 9:59 pm

NEWYORKER


Stock Trader
TKYO .. Became my first Egg. in CSE, I'm glad got it sooner than later.

Nuwancha and Baba2020 like this post

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