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Sri Lanka Equity Forum » Stock Market Talk » OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020

OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020

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Who will win presidential election

OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 - Page 8 Vote_lcap61%OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 - Page 8 Vote_rcap 61% [ 58 ]
OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 - Page 8 Vote_lcap25%OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 - Page 8 Vote_rcap 25% [ 24 ]
OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 - Page 8 Vote_lcap3%OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 - Page 8 Vote_rcap 3% [ 3 ]
OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 - Page 8 Vote_lcap9%OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 - Page 8 Vote_rcap 9% [ 9 ]
OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 - Page 8 Vote_lcap1%OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 - Page 8 Vote_rcap 1% [ 1 ]
Total Votes : 95

Poll closed

Go down  Message [Page 8 of 16]

141OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 - Page 8 Empty Re: OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 on Thu Oct 17, 2019 7:16 pm

samaritan


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
CBK is a dead loss, just an inventory in the SLFP.

The contest is between 'All fart no shit' vs 'A result oriented doer'.

Whom will the people choose? The answer is obvious.

142OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 - Page 8 Empty Re: OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 on Thu Oct 17, 2019 9:04 pm

Arrowrisk


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
True. We have seen that so called "result oriented leader" how he answered the question directed to him. He was more focused on how to pass the questions to others.... and whole world has seen it…!


We do pray hard for so called "result oriented leader" to become president. lol!

143OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 - Page 8 Empty Re: OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 on Fri Oct 18, 2019 10:01 am

samaritan


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Being an equity forum we observe members actively discussing shares at present in a market that's showing some resilience after four long years of sluggishness under a govt in which Sajith was a key partner. 
Do they at least realize the reason behind the current turn around of the market. Its mainly on expectation that Gota will be leading a future govt. So, don't bite the hand that feeds you.

144OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 - Page 8 Empty Re: OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 on Sat Oct 19, 2019 8:38 am

samaritan


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
According to revelations made by Wijedasa Rajapakse most of the UNP politicians who are vociferously supporting and rallying around Sajith are directly or indirectly linked to the CB bond scam and had been beneficiaries of same. Obviously if Sajith is elected as president they are all going to be stakeholders in his administration which according to him is going to be corruption free. Ha Ha Haaa have a good laugh thro' the backside!

Have people forgotten the immense hardships in the backdrop of a crumbling economy for the past four years under a regime in which Sajith was a key partner???

People are not looking forward to a leader who is willing to sleep at Fort Railway station platform and use public toilets. Let the leader travel in a limousine but improve the standard of living of the common man & develop the country to be in par with other developed nations. Food for thought!

145OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 - Page 8 Empty Re: OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 on Sat Oct 19, 2019 12:21 pm

Arrowrisk


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Blue or Green all are playing the same game.


The so called leader is good at kidnapping and killing…
The paid Medias have over portrayed him as a good leader but in reality nothing indide

146OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 - Page 8 Empty Re: OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 on Sat Oct 19, 2019 2:59 pm

samaritan


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
There is collective responsibility on Sajith as well for the present plight of the country's economy. RW agreed to nominate Sajith very well knowing that he is bound to lose. RW will be the first person to be happy when Sajith is defeated in the presidential race as he can never ever come to terms with the strategies adopted by Sajith to get the nomination. 

Sajith is now talking about trimming allocations for Ministers etc., If he was genuine he could have raised this at least as a suggestion at a cabinet meeting during the past four years. Claiming to be a graduate of LSE (in spite of RK raising doubts about whether he even passed his O/L) he has never spoken anything related to country's economy or GDP growth in the past let alone the stock market or its performance. Overall his credibility is questionable indeed!

He only wants to win the election desperately at any cost as he very well knows RW & other seniors in the party would marginalise him and hence his political future in the UNP would be at stake. RW will have the last laugh securing opposition leader's post and continue to hold the party leadership.

So, whether he distributes cement bags or ariya kiri his fate is sealed.

147OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 - Page 8 Empty Re: OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 on Sat Oct 19, 2019 6:52 pm

samaritan


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Rift between Sajith faction and RW faction widens as plans to oust RW from premiership in the event of winning presidency surfaces. Interesting developments can be witnessed in the coming days.
On the other hand Gota's popularity increases day by day!

148OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 - Page 8 Empty Suppose Gota will win, on Fri Oct 25, 2019 8:46 am

TURBO


Stock Trader
Suppose Gota will win, what kind of companies will move up

149OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 - Page 8 Empty Re: OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 on Fri Oct 25, 2019 9:06 am

THASSIM


Stock Analytic
Stock Analytic
There is no doubt GR will win. He will secure 52% of the total votes credit to MR.

@teller what do you think will appreciate when this happens?

150OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 - Page 8 Empty Re: OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 on Fri Oct 25, 2019 9:54 am

soileconomy

soileconomy
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@TURBO wrote:Suppose Gota will win, what kind of companies will move up
Whole market will

151OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 - Page 8 Empty Re: OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 on Fri Oct 25, 2019 9:55 am

CITIZEN

CITIZEN
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@TURBO wrote:Suppose Gota will win, what kind of companies will move up
New comer friend                                                                Don't fellow speculative shares on political agenda if he loose what happen your investment? If he win your shares may go up the same time it will come down, fundamentally shares many pick and invest. you can sell no profit/loss basic.

152OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 - Page 8 Empty Re: OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 on Fri Oct 25, 2019 10:00 am

CITIZEN

CITIZEN
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@THASSIM wrote:There is no doubt GR will win. He will secure 52% of the total votes credit to MR.

@teller what do you think will appreciate when this happens?
How can you say winner, even the main two contesters they are in confuse, not saying public meeting

153OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 - Page 8 Empty Re: OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 on Fri Oct 25, 2019 11:10 am

Arrowrisk

Arrowrisk
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@TURBO wrote:Suppose Gota will win, what kind of companies will move up

Gota is losing day by day and not coming to any press conference after 15.10.2019..

Do not invest based on political speculative it will be very risky. Do your own study and invest. At present ASI is going up based on speculative/manipulators at CSE. So earn as much you can prior to election.

154OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 - Page 8 Empty Re: OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 on Fri Oct 25, 2019 11:27 am

Eugine Fernando


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@Arrowrisk wrote:
@TURBO wrote:Suppose Gota will win, what kind of companies will move up

Gota is losing day by day and not coming to any press conference after 15.10.2019..

Do not invest based on political speculative it will be very risky. Do your own study and invest. At present ASI is going up based on speculative/manipulators at CSE. So earn as much you can prior to election.
My advice is sell all your portfolio before 15th November and keep the cash in hand., wait for the results and accordingly enter to the market. GL

155OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 - Page 8 Empty Re: OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 on Fri Oct 25, 2019 1:54 pm

samaritan


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@soileconomy wrote:
@TURBO wrote:Suppose Gota will win, what kind of companies will move up
Whole market will
Agree.Gota will win and market will surge after four long years.

Country looks forward to an action leader who could develop the country and not a leader with an alien accent.

156OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 - Page 8 Empty Re: OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 on Fri Oct 25, 2019 2:01 pm

Sstar

Sstar
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 - Page 8 Screen12

157OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 - Page 8 Empty Re: OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 on Fri Oct 25, 2019 3:44 pm

God Father


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 - Page 8 0c691910

158OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 - Page 8 Empty Re: OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 on Fri Oct 25, 2019 4:16 pm

Hewagak


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
@God Father wrote:OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 - Page 8 0c691910
God Father patta UNP wage.....Gotabaya will win this race. Dont share wrong calculations.

159OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 - Page 8 Empty Re: OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 on Fri Oct 25, 2019 4:31 pm

st clair's

st clair's
Stock Analytic
Stock Analytic
@God Father wrote:OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 - Page 8 0c691910

As per this computation sensitivity for each ethnic group-wise is, S 92K, T 23K, and M 15K and based on the ground reality I doubt whether SP and AKD would be able to achieve 40% and 15% from the Sinhala ethnic group (which is with the highest sensitivity), as per your computation.

160OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 - Page 8 Empty Re: OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 on Fri Oct 25, 2019 5:46 pm

samaritan


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Even Piano won't do such an analysis in favour of Puthano. OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 - Page 8 Icon_lol

THE 'GOAT FATHER;
OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 - Page 8 9k=

161OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 - Page 8 Empty Re: OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 on Fri Oct 25, 2019 7:11 pm

Arrowrisk

Arrowrisk
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@God Father wrote:OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 - Page 8 0c691910

This time it is going to be a hard fight between GR & SP and T & M will decide who will be the president. By looking at the crowd gathering at the political rally we can’t decide who will win.


Now a days younger generation voters are more educated and they will evaluate the candidate prior to cast their votes

162OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 - Page 8 Empty Re: OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 on Fri Oct 25, 2019 7:21 pm

samaritan


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
T & M votes are split. Estate sector majority is for GR.
'God Father' should analyse the last LG/PS election outcome in the first place.

SP wants to be a white swan surrounded by black swans whose dossiers are highly questionable.

163OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 - Page 8 Empty Re: OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 on Sat Oct 26, 2019 12:37 am

God Father


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Predicting the 2019 Sri Lankan Presidential Election
The term bellewether  referred to the ancient English practice of placing a metallic bell around the neck of a castrated ram (known as a wether) that led a flock of sheep. A shepherd could identify the flock movements by the tinkling of the bell. Even when the flock out of sight.
In modern usage, the term bellwether refers to an entity or individual that indicates trends in a larger system or collective.
For example, whichever candidate won the state of Ohio has won the presidency in all but two of 58 US Presidential Elections. Hence, states like Ohio, Florida (also two misses), Nevada, Missouri, New Mexico, and Tennessee (all with three misses) are known as “Bellwether states”.


OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 - Page 8 1*KaceZ69RE1dNi1YTipBMgw
US Presidential Election Bellwether States (Source: https://www.prb.org/electiondemographics/ )
I was curious if Sri Lanka’s Presidential Election had any Bellwether trends. For example, were there any polling divisions which always backed the winning candidate?
[size=34]Perfect Bellwethers[/size]
Sri Lanka did indeed have eight bellwether polling divisions: Moratuwa and Ratmalana (Colombo Electoral District), Ja-Ela and Katana (Gampaha Electoral District), Mawathagama (Kurunegala Electoral District), Medirigiriya, Minneriya and Polonnaruwa (Polonnaruwa Electoral District). Whichever candidate won these polling divisions, went on to win the presidency .
For example, these are the results for Moratuwa.
OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 - Page 8 1*p52QDxsZ23eRq6vpnZx5CA Results: Moratuwa Polling Divisios
I could see no discernible pattern in the distribution of bellwether polling divisions across the country:
OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 - Page 8 1*PrkfkPSgRXqpNtR6eJ5plw
Number of times each polling divisions backed the winning presidential candidate
[size=34]Percentage Bellwethers[/size]
We defined a perfect bellwether as a polling division which was always won by the winning candidate.What about the percentage of votes? Are there bellwethers that also match the winning percentage?
For each of the 160 polling divisions in Sri Lanka, I looked at the absolute error between the percentage of votes a winning candidate won island-wide, and the percentage of votes that winning candidate won in the polling division.
The polling division with the lowest error was Moratuwa. The percentage of votes a winning candidate received island-wide differed by an average of 1.2% in Moratuwa.
OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 - Page 8 1*3m_f5znhM6Qp7PXHBPsKXA
Results: Moratuwa Polling Division
Interestingly, the polling division with the second-lowest error (1.6%), Yatinuwara, in the Kandy Electoral District, is not a Perfect Bellwether, backing the losing candidate in 1988. However, its percentages have matched the island-wide result almost precisely in the last two presidential elections.

OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 - Page 8 1*ujue1izZP--mBsaCI3PnZw
Results: Yatinuwara Polling Division
The top percentage bellwethers are as follows:
OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 - Page 8 1*FfiOTt616F_vosfQLrZf-g
Top super bellwethers, with average absolute difference from islandwide winner’s vote percentage
[size=34]Bellwether Electoral Districts[/size]
We defined and analyzed “bellwether-ness” at a polling division level. What about at the electoral district level? Have any of the 22 electoral district consistently managed to pick the winner?
Observent readers would have noticed that all three polling divisions in the Polonnaruwa electoral district were bellwethers. Hence, the Polonnaruwa electoral district as a whole is itself a bellwether.
No other electoral district has backed the winner in all seven presidential elections, though Colombo, Gampaha, Kurunegala, Puttalam, Kandy, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Monaragala and Hambantota have backed six.
OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 - Page 8 1*fUHKItpKwHROw3RffrRciw
Bellwether Electoral Districts
Interestingly, the best percentage bellwether electoral district (i.e. that which matches the winning presidential candidate’s islandwide percentage vote best) is not Polonnaruwa, but Puttalam. In fact, Polonnaruwa is only ninth best.
OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 - Page 8 1*e9R5Y83FAqtrCurbeeAp6w
Percentage Bellwether Electoral Districts, with average absolute difference from islandwide winner’s vote percentage.
[size=34]Bellwether Fallacies[/size]

“Perfect Bellwethers will always be Perfect Bellwethers.”

Suppose you are watching the results as they come in, after the November 16th election. Let’s suppose you notice that candidate Sajith Premadasa (say) wins the Moratuwa polling division.
Can you conclude that the UNP candidate has won the election?
You cannot. The “perfectness” of a bellwether polling division is how well it matches the results of the country as a whole. Bellwether polling divisions support political parties in the same proportions that the country as a whole supports these parties. This support can change, and the polling division could diverge from the country.
In the very first presidential election (1982), the UNP candidate J. R. Jayawardena won 137 out of 160 polling divisions. Hence, after this first election, 137 polling divisions were (trivially) “perfect’ bellwethers. Given the UNPs big victory, many electorates that might have voted for its opponents, ended-up voting for the UNP. Hence, the high number of bellwether polling divisions. Also, with a single election, we have only one sample. Thus, the statistical significance of our bellwether statistic is low.
In subsequent elections, the Bellwether count drops, while the significance of the metric increases:

OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 - Page 8 1*CFiZ1xeg58Czeu0DxdAzZw
The number of perfect bellwether polling divisions, after each election
On the eve of the 2015 election, there were 44 perfect bellwether polling divisions. Avissawella was one such polling divisions that had backed the winner in all six presidential elections.
Suppose you were watching the results as they come in, after the 2015 election. Let’s suppose you noticed that candidate Mahinda Rajapaksa won the Avissawella polling division.
Could you conclude that the UPFA candidate had won the election? Not quite.
OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 - Page 8 1*3wymm1VSRZjENPCUodLZ5w
Results: Avissawella Polling Division
In 2015, Avissawella backed the losing candidate, lost its bellwether status, and Maitripala Sirisena ended-up winning the election.

“Candidates should try to win all the Perfect Bellwethers.”

Bellwethers are bellwethers because they correlate strongly with the voting behaviour of the country as a whole. However, there is no causal relationship between the result of the bellwether and that of the country.
Thus, trying to win a bellwether (for example, by campaigning more in such polling divisions), would not lead to more votes in the country as a whole. The candidate might win the bellwether, and lose the country, leading to the polling division losing its bellwether status (as Avissawella did).
On the other hand, bellwethers might be good places to learn about voter preferences and needs. They could act as “samples” for the country as a whole. But after such insights are gained, they must be applied to the whole country. Not just to the bellwether.

“Polonnaruwa is special.”

As we learnt, not only is the Polonnaruwa electoral district a bellwether, so are all three of its polling divisions. So is there something special about the ancient, former-capital of Sri Lanka? When it comes to presidential elections?
Probably not. And here’s why. We can divide our “history of presidential elections” into three groups:

  • 1982 and 1988: The Green Era. In this Era, much of the Sinhala majority heartland supported the UNP. Including Polonnaruwa. So it’s not surprising that Polonnaruwa voted for the UNP.
  • 1994, 1999, 2005, 2010: The Blue Era. Following Chandrika Kumaratunga’s 1994 victories in both general and presidential elections, the heartland turned Blue. Again, it’s not surprising that Polonnaruwa voted for the Blue Party.
  • 2015: The Polonnaruwa Era. In 2015, much of the Sinhala heartland remained Blue, voting for Mahinda Rajapaksa. One exception was Polonnaruwa, which supported their very own Maitripala Sirisena, who went on to win the election.

Hence, it is not surprising that Polonnaruwa supported the winning candidate in every election.
[size=34]So who is going to win?[/size]
As usual, I’m going to utter my favourite phrase: “I don’t know”.
I also don’t know what the voters in our current perfect bellwethers (i.e. Moratuwa, Ratmalana, Ja-Ela, Katana, Mawathagama, Medirigiriya, Minneriya and Polonnaruwa) are thinking. But maybe you do.
If you go to Ratmalana, talk to a bunch of Ratmalaneans and find out that they are all supporting candidate X, you could make one of three conclusions:

164OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 - Page 8 Empty GOTA manifest - VAT 8% Good sign for AEL on Sun Oct 27, 2019 3:46 am

rukshan1234


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
VAT is going to reduce to 8%  good opportunity for construction  sector,,

165OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 - Page 8 Empty Re: OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 on Sun Oct 27, 2019 4:11 am

CITIZEN

CITIZEN
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@rukshan1234 wrote:VAT is going to reduce to 8%  good opportunity for construction  sector,,
Don't believe politicians promises in election period. By reducing and giving free how can run a government with a jumbo cabinet? with many own family members waiting for ministry. don't canvass by put a company name.

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