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Sri Lanka Equity Forum » Stock Market Talk » ROYAL CERAMICS PLC (RCL.N0000)

ROYAL CERAMICS PLC (RCL.N0000)

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121ROYAL CERAMICS PLC (RCL.N0000) - Page 7 Empty Re: ROYAL CERAMICS PLC (RCL.N0000) on Mon Jan 20, 2020 8:32 pm

Teller


Moderator
Moderator
It will not touch 65 but definitely it will touch 71/-, this has an inverse V pattern to 35 degrees. So in dull market its technically poor. But positively it Holds LFIN. Thats the reason its not touch 65 again. Currently RCL need cash inflow. Its extraordinary amount like 3500 million . Only LFIN can inject through dividends. I know these combination better than others. Because i was very near to largest 20 earlier.

122ROYAL CERAMICS PLC (RCL.N0000) - Page 7 Empty Re: ROYAL CERAMICS PLC (RCL.N0000) on Mon Jan 20, 2020 8:38 pm

KavinduTM


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Intrinsicvalue wrote:@thilinam yeah good decision to sell atleast now..

last time i entered around 60 and sold at 95 level and got 50% profit.. Very Happy
RCL has a good potential but it needs time to settle.... 
I will wait more and enter around 65 and keep it around 1 year till it reach 100 levels..

Good entry and exit.
But i don't think it will come to 65 levels again. 75 levels possible and will be a good entry.

123ROYAL CERAMICS PLC (RCL.N0000) - Page 7 Empty Re: ROYAL CERAMICS PLC (RCL.N0000) on Mon Jan 20, 2020 8:41 pm

KavinduTM


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Teller wrote:It will not touch 65 but definitely it will touch 71/-, this has an inverse V pattern to 35 degrees.  So in dull market its technically poor. But positively it Holds LFIN. Thats the reason its not touch 65 again. Currently RCL need cash inflow. Its extraordinary amount like 3500 million . Only LFIN can inject through dividends. I know these combination better than others. Because i was very near to largest 20 earlier.

Aw largest 20  Smile

124ROYAL CERAMICS PLC (RCL.N0000) - Page 7 Empty Re: ROYAL CERAMICS PLC (RCL.N0000) on Mon Jan 20, 2020 9:51 pm

NANDANA2012


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
If RCL to come down to 65/70, market have to come down to 5500?? Is that possible ?  doubt it..

125ROYAL CERAMICS PLC (RCL.N0000) - Page 7 Empty Re: ROYAL CERAMICS PLC (RCL.N0000) on Mon Jan 20, 2020 10:57 pm

KavinduTM


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@NANDANA2012 wrote:If RCL to come down to 65/70, market have to come down to 5500?? Is that possible ?  doubt it..

Yeah i don't agree either. But 75-76 is possible. Market will keep this downtrend for few more days.

126ROYAL CERAMICS PLC (RCL.N0000) - Page 7 Empty Re: ROYAL CERAMICS PLC (RCL.N0000) on Tue Jan 21, 2020 10:55 am

Kipling


Expert
Expert
Kavindu 
As per your estimate downward drift & low TO.
Awaiting your confident prediction of turnaround by end Jan. 
Hope non stop run to all time high after election without the interruption you believe may happen prior to resumption of major bull. This given MR statement on CSE yesterday. YP did not give a damn about investors. GR & MR think differently as they view booming CSE as a reflection of their policy success. This is crucial. Await your response as usual.

127ROYAL CERAMICS PLC (RCL.N0000) - Page 7 Empty Re: ROYAL CERAMICS PLC (RCL.N0000) on Tue Jan 21, 2020 11:10 am

KavinduTM

KavinduTM
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Kipling wrote:Kavindu 
As per your estimate downward drift & low TO.
Awaiting your confident prediction of turnaround by end Jan. 
Hope non stop run to all time high after election without the interruption you believe may happen prior to resumption of major bull. This given MR statement on CSE yesterday. YP did not give a damn about investors. GR & MR think differently as they view booming CSE as a reflection of their policy success. This is crucial. Await your response as usual.

Yeah. it should happen.
True. YP is a shit. watch how they destroyed rupee in that period
It was 130 in 2015 jan and now it's 180. 
It's 38% for that 5 yrs period.
Comparing to last 5 yrs. Next 5 yrs (2020 - 2025) will be a golden age for srilanka ( even after they learned a lot and GR is something different )

128ROYAL CERAMICS PLC (RCL.N0000) - Page 7 Empty Re: ROYAL CERAMICS PLC (RCL.N0000) on Tue Jan 21, 2020 11:15 am

Kipling


Expert
Expert
Thank you for the prompt response.
One final query.
Bull activation latest 1st week of Feb.
Please confirm your confidence level 90% for  previous sentence.

129ROYAL CERAMICS PLC (RCL.N0000) - Page 7 Empty Re: ROYAL CERAMICS PLC (RCL.N0000) on Tue Jan 21, 2020 11:28 am

KavinduTM

KavinduTM
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Kipling wrote:Thank you for the prompt response.
One final query.
Bull activation latest 1st week of Feb.
Please confirm your confidence level 90% for  previous sentence.

Welcome @Kipling
Yeah if any kinda bull gonna start , It should happen before feb 1st week.
That will be a turning point.
Yeah i trust on it.

130ROYAL CERAMICS PLC (RCL.N0000) - Page 7 Empty Re: ROYAL CERAMICS PLC (RCL.N0000) on Tue Jan 21, 2020 1:12 pm

Kipling


Expert
Expert
Kavindu
What do you feel is the trigger to turn market by early Feb?
Policy rate cut, GR announcement of economic reforms or market technical analysis.
Await your view.

131ROYAL CERAMICS PLC (RCL.N0000) - Page 7 Empty Re: ROYAL CERAMICS PLC (RCL.N0000) on Tue Jan 21, 2020 1:18 pm

NANDANA2012


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
May be not Bulls but Cows !!! starting Feb.. Probably Bulls after April Elections and better results...

132ROYAL CERAMICS PLC (RCL.N0000) - Page 7 Empty Re: ROYAL CERAMICS PLC (RCL.N0000) on Tue Jan 21, 2020 1:23 pm

Kipling


Expert
Expert
Nandana 
Kavindu expected Bull upto 6400 until election result & the huge move after.
You seem to think no run until,election results out.
Am I correct?

133ROYAL CERAMICS PLC (RCL.N0000) - Page 7 Empty Re: ROYAL CERAMICS PLC (RCL.N0000) on Tue Jan 21, 2020 1:28 pm

KavinduTM

KavinduTM
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Kipling wrote:Kavindu
What do you feel is the trigger to turn market by early Feb?
Policy rate cut, GR announcement of economic reforms or market technical analysis.
Await your view.

All you mentioned + few more.

134ROYAL CERAMICS PLC (RCL.N0000) - Page 7 Empty Re: ROYAL CERAMICS PLC (RCL.N0000) on Tue Jan 21, 2020 1:29 pm

KavinduTM

KavinduTM
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@NANDANA2012 wrote:May be not Bulls but Cows !!! starting Feb.. Probably Bulls after April Elections and better results...

Haha kinda true. However it's not bear.

135ROYAL CERAMICS PLC (RCL.N0000) - Page 7 Empty Re: ROYAL CERAMICS PLC (RCL.N0000) on Tue Jan 21, 2020 1:46 pm

NANDANA2012


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@Kipling wrote:Nandana 
Kavindu expected Bull upto 6400 until election result & the huge move after.
You seem to think no run until,election results out.
Am I correct?
Just jokingly i mentioned cows, meaning slow run till elections.. Govt has done many good things to revive the economy, but some worst decisions also being discussed (Like more Govt Jobs - thats a disaster). Foreigners still in the sideline, Some exiting.. Big local investors also waiting.. So even after Elections, we may not see a large Bull run if Govt dont correct basics..  So some shaky period will be there.. Cant say anything for sure now.. specially after this news... 

http://www.colombopage.com/archive_20A/Jan16_1579196339CH.php

https://economynext.com/sri-lanka-tax-payer-to-bear-unemployable-graduates-burden-from-march-41133/

136ROYAL CERAMICS PLC (RCL.N0000) - Page 7 Empty Re: ROYAL CERAMICS PLC (RCL.N0000) on Tue Jan 21, 2020 8:49 pm

Kipling


Expert
Expert
Thank you Nandana. Your comments greatly appreciated as usual.

137ROYAL CERAMICS PLC (RCL.N0000) - Page 7 Empty Re: ROYAL CERAMICS PLC (RCL.N0000) on Tue Jan 21, 2020 10:48 pm

Teller

Teller
Moderator
Moderator
I am telling your guys, until we defense the rupee, (i mean stopping the depreciation and start appreciation), no future CSE


_________________




Teller said is said..

138ROYAL CERAMICS PLC (RCL.N0000) - Page 7 Empty Re: ROYAL CERAMICS PLC (RCL.N0000) on Wed Jan 22, 2020 7:26 am

NANDANA2012


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@Teller wrote:I am telling your guys, until we defense the rupee, (i mean stopping the depreciation and start appreciation), no future CSE
Exactly... Foreigners have the Exchange rate risk unlike us.. If market gives 15% gain and rupee depreciates 12% - what is the point ? They also have to loose about 3% when converting currencies... So as teller said we have to maintain exchange rate at any cost, this is even good for us as we have huge foreign loans, thus with increased unproductive Govt spending, like more Govt Jobs... you never can defend Rupee.. Same story like last 5 years... Different actors....

I am not against providing poor and educated people with jobs but not in Govt sector.. Too many already.. Too many without any proper work... So utilise them if there is a shortage somewhere... Also give them a good bonus if they make profits....Thats ok...

139ROYAL CERAMICS PLC (RCL.N0000) - Page 7 Empty Re: ROYAL CERAMICS PLC (RCL.N0000) on Wed Jan 22, 2020 1:56 pm

KavinduTM

KavinduTM
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Teller wrote:I am telling your guys, until we defense the rupee, (i mean stopping the depreciation and start appreciation), no future CSE

Yeah. it is almost started  bom

140ROYAL CERAMICS PLC (RCL.N0000) - Page 7 Empty Re: ROYAL CERAMICS PLC (RCL.N0000) on Wed Jan 22, 2020 3:20 pm

Kipling


Expert
Expert
Hi Kavindu 
Today significant tax cuts approved & to be presented in parliament. Still
I see tremendous negativity. No govt can get all decisions right. But GR & MR really making a courageous effort to get economy & CSE moving. I recall Eran saying we must be happy with a “solid” 2% growth rate. Even in this forum you see Trading Economics absurd projection now the header. CSE cheapest market in SAsia. Earnings will grow with tax cuts, sales pick up & rate drops - making PE even better. Await your take.

141ROYAL CERAMICS PLC (RCL.N0000) - Page 7 Empty Re: ROYAL CERAMICS PLC (RCL.N0000) on Wed Jan 22, 2020 4:27 pm

Teller

Teller
Moderator
Moderator
PE can be manipulated easily. Think about the cash flow. There are 35+ additional ratios to consider in terms of cash flow and strategical ratios. 100% guaranteed , no appreciation of share prices in 2020. What ever you hold in profit SELL and EXIT. 90 % of companies are over value here. Especially Price to Cash flow ratio in CSE listed companies one of the lowest in the world. In term of cashflows and dividendend payout with the decline rupee rupee, we can not expect FDI s here


_________________




Teller said is said..

142ROYAL CERAMICS PLC (RCL.N0000) - Page 7 Empty Re: ROYAL CERAMICS PLC (RCL.N0000) on Wed Jan 22, 2020 6:16 pm

NANDANA2012


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@Kipling wrote:Hi Kavindu 
Today significant tax cuts approved & to be presented in parliament. Still
I see tremendous negativity. No govt can get all decisions right. But GR & MR really making a courageous effort to get economy & CSE moving. I recall Eran saying we must be happy with a “solid” 2% growth rate. Even in this forum you see Trading Economics absurd projection now the header. CSE cheapest market in SAsia. Earnings will grow with tax cuts, sales pick up & rate drops - making PE even better. Await your take.

Agree they are super managers. Probably best ever we had. But why they make basic mistakes ? In 2010, they had 2/3 power in the Parliament, didnt need to buy MP's and could have created the best Govt ever... But they were going in the wrong path...too many mistakes.. They dont seem to have proper economic advisors... No Country in the World have developed keeping loss making state enterprises and enlarging Govt sector which is unproductive and a burden on economy.. I appreciate so many relief measures given to businesses.. cos no private sector - no economy... But same time do opposites also.. So ultimately positive momentum is destroyed.. Sri lanka now dont have a unemployment issue.. Infact we have a very good employment rate.. NO PEOPLE TO WORK IN THE CONSTRUCTION, HOTEL SECTORS... Already foreign workers are coming.. then no people to cultivate some lands.. they are just iddling... And Govt plan to offer more GOVT jobs... Totally wrong policy...KILLING THE BUD JUST ABOUT TO RISE.....

143ROYAL CERAMICS PLC (RCL.N0000) - Page 7 Empty Re: ROYAL CERAMICS PLC (RCL.N0000) on Wed Jan 22, 2020 6:45 pm

NANDANA2012


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@Teller wrote:PE can be manipulated easily. Think about the cash flow. There are 35+ additional ratios to consider in terms of cash flow and strategical ratios.  100% guaranteed , no appreciation of share prices in 2020. What ever you hold in profit SELL and EXIT. 90 % of companies are over value here. Especially Price to Cash flow ratio in CSE listed companies  one of the lowest in the world.  In term of cashflows and dividendend payout with the decline rupee rupee, we can not expect FDI s here
I cannot agree that 90% overvalued.. Infact 75% undervalued... But many other issues you mentioned is correct... unless they are corrected market may not move much..though probability is there...GOVT AND CENTRAL  BANK SEEM TO NEED A GOOD ECONOMIC ADVISOR. THEY KEEP DESTROYING ECONOMY EVERY 5 YEARS....THEN TRY TO RECOVER... THEN DESTROY... AGAIN RECOVER.. SO WE ARE AT THE SAME PLACE...ITHIOPIA AHEAD..

144ROYAL CERAMICS PLC (RCL.N0000) - Page 7 Empty Tax Cut on Wed Jan 22, 2020 7:12 pm

KavinduTM

KavinduTM
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Kipling wrote:Hi Kavindu 
Today significant tax cuts approved & to be presented in parliament. Still
I see tremendous negativity. No govt can get all decisions right. But GR & MR really making a courageous effort to get economy & CSE moving. I recall Eran saying we must be happy with a “solid” 2% growth rate. Even in this forum you see Trading Economics absurd projection now the header. CSE cheapest market in SAsia. Earnings will grow with tax cuts, sales pick up & rate drops - making PE even better. Await your take.
Hi Kipling

Yeah. Those tax cuts are a huge loss for the government. That's right. But there is a positive side as u told earnings will grow and there will be a business friendly environment+These tax reliefs will encourage people to start their own business. Which is the way to grow GDP , way to economic growth of a country.

And with the GR's plan to increase the admission rate to universities , there will be huge benefits to the country ( chances to AL passed intelligent students ). It will decrease intelligence flow and with the tax reliefs actually srilanka is getting a good environment for businessmen. I believe this is the time for a Renaissance of srilankan economy.

Yeah CSE is the cheaper for now. But not for much longer Smile

Haha just ignore those headers bruh. Everyone will see.

145ROYAL CERAMICS PLC (RCL.N0000) - Page 7 Empty Re: ROYAL CERAMICS PLC (RCL.N0000) on Wed Jan 22, 2020 7:18 pm

KavinduTM

KavinduTM
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
And sorry for the late. I replied u before but it wasn't posted as someone replied when i was typing and i forgot to select 'save' there  Neutral

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