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Sri Lanka Equity Forum » Stock Market Talk » Sri Lanka Interest Rates

Sri Lanka Interest Rates

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1Sri Lanka Interest Rates Empty Sri Lanka Interest Rates on Tue Dec 10, 2019 4:02 pm

ThilinaM

ThilinaM
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
people are stupid one said if market come to 6020 tax cut is useless. tax cut will impact next year profits . even profits are high people may behave differently. niwton once said i can solve any physics theory but cant mesure stupidity of people (after he loosing money on stock market) any way one should buy a stock for fundamental reasons tax cut is not for short term traders.

2Sri Lanka Interest Rates Empty Re: Sri Lanka Interest Rates on Tue Dec 10, 2019 5:51 pm

Promoney


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@thilinaM I cant help it if you cant understand english. What I said was it is illogical for the market to come down below 6020.. given the positive outcomes that occured since it was previously at 6020. Only reason would be panic retail sellers. Today the turnover for around Rs.240Mn. Try to understand what one says properly.. Or get someone to explain what it means

3Sri Lanka Interest Rates Empty Re: Sri Lanka Interest Rates on Tue Dec 10, 2019 8:58 pm

reyaz

reyaz
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
There is a relationship or correlation between tax cut govt and torrent of trading with wave if not tsunami of trades. Similarly there is a correlation to Austerity meassures and wikunumsinghe government (UNP= Unwanted foreign iNfluence Party).

4Sri Lanka Interest Rates Empty Re: Sri Lanka Interest Rates on Tue Dec 10, 2019 9:07 pm

reyaz

reyaz
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@ThilinaM wrote:people are stupid one said if market come to 6020 tax cut is useless. tax cut will impact next year profits . even profits are high people may behave differently. niwton once said i can solve any physics theory but cant mesure stupidity of people (after he loosing money on stock market) any way one should buy a stock for fundamental reasons tax cut is not for short term traders.

Perhaps you should listen to a thing or two from Keynes or present day economist such as (Sri Lanka's own) Razeen Sally before commenting further. NB. he hates Ranil too.

5Sri Lanka Interest Rates Empty Re: Sri Lanka Interest Rates on Tue Dec 10, 2019 10:10 pm

Promoney


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
I supported Yahapalanaya economic policies which stabilized our economy, by not only gaining GSP and removing the Fishing ban, but by the monetary policy adopted by the Central Bank..

But their main miskate was, after stabilizing, they did not stimulate the economy, which they should have done during the last 1 to 1.5 years of their tenure.. big mistake.. New government has done it.. the time is right, because Port City FDI's will start flowing during 2020, and the largest FDI approvals during 2019 will start materializing from 2020 onwards.. tourist arrivals, which was down 70% in May and an average 20% down in subsequent months, recovered to be down only 9% in November.. expected to be equal or increase in December.. Sri Lanka is looking good going forward to 2020..
Sad situation is we , Sri lankans still doubt ourselves, when International Investors like Mark Morbius has to come point it out..

Watch as things foldout..

fireshelter

fireshelter
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
 Sri Lanka’s interest rates should go down, but the rupee will not fall, because the strength of the currency is based on confidence, not just rates, Mark Mobius, an emerging market investor said in a prediction.
“You have to reduce the interest rates,” Mobius, known as a emerging market guru, said at a forum in Colombo organized by Cinnamon Life, an 800 million US dollar real estate development promoted by Sri Lanka’s John Keells Holdings.
“You have to look at the global situation. Interest rates are moving down and are low.”
Prediction
He said some people said that if rates are lowered the currency will fall.
“No, the currency is based on confidence not only on interest rates,” he said. “Look at the US.”
The US however no longer has pegged exchange and is a free floating currency and the Fed does not inject base money (or withdraw) on interventions in the foreign exchange market.
The US dollar also collapsed in 1971 when the Fed injected money while trying to maintain a gold peg at 35 dollars an ounce.
Mobius’ comments came a day after Paul Volcker, the Fed Chairman who ended the stagflation created by the Fed after the gold peg collapsed, died. Volker raised policy rates to 20 percent to end 14 percent inflation, sending oil and gold prices crashing down.
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Paul Volcker, the man who tamed the Fed, dies at 92
Currency crises are faced by soft-pegs, which collect foreign reserves by intervening in forex markets, not free floating regimes.
Currency boards or hard pegs (where short term rates float) also do not face currency crises.
No Forex Reserves
However in an about turn, Mobius himself admitted that he looked at forex reserves when investing in emerging markets.
Central banks of countries like the US did not have foreign reserves and most gold and forex reserves were owned by emerging market countries, he said.
He said at one time he could not exit from Nigeria. Nigeria is an oil producing country with a bad central bank.
Mobius said he was told that there were no foreign exchange reserves and he was told to wait and he had to wait.
The Nigerian currency the Naira was set up with a central bank in 1972, replacing the pound at 0.6 to the US and it has fallen to about 360 so far.
The soft-peg with the US dollar operated by Sri Lanka’s central bank has the worst record among South Asian monetary authorities, falling from 4.70 to 182 since it was created in 1952.
The central bank’s soft-peg has dragged the country and the Treasury to the IMF 16 times so far.
Pakistan is next the next worst central bank with the rupee falling to 155 from 4.70 to the US dollar. Bangladesh is next, but has kept monetary stability for almost a decade with the Taka at around 80 to the US dollar, giving a stable foundation for a period of strong growth.
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The best performer is the Maldives Monetary Authority, whose dollar peg has fallen to only 15.
Dubai which also had Indian rupees now has a currency which is 3 to the US dollar, and has no independent monetary policy, with a currency-board like system. (Colombo/Dec10/2019 – Update III)

7Sri Lanka Interest Rates Empty Re: Sri Lanka Interest Rates on Thu Dec 12, 2019 9:04 am

Teller

Teller
Moderator
Moderator
Mark Mobius brain washes to sell state banks and some state entities. Now the plan is clear. Listen his speech.


_________________




Teller said is said..

8Sri Lanka Interest Rates Empty Re: Sri Lanka Interest Rates on Thu Dec 12, 2019 9:15 am

krishna

krishna
Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
The methodology for property investment is the same around the world,revealed Dr. Mobius and that is the challenge in the development of mortgage markets. Here in Sri Lanka there is a dire need to develop a mortgage market where owning property is made easier for potential investors.

9Sri Lanka Interest Rates Empty Re: Sri Lanka Interest Rates on Thu Dec 12, 2019 11:10 am

ThilinaM

ThilinaM
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
do not have more than 1% doubt in long terms like 30 years. u will win.

10Sri Lanka Interest Rates Empty Re: Sri Lanka Interest Rates on Thu Dec 12, 2019 7:00 pm

NANDANA2012


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@Teller wrote:Mark Mobius brain washes to sell state banks and some state entities.  Now the plan is clear. Listen his speech.

Our economy's No 1 problem is SOE's. If CEB, Srilankan, CPC, BOC /PB had been privatised or structured 15 years back, we are a different country today, very close to Malaysia etc.. These places just destroy economy, create lazy, iddle Govt job culture..while private sector just rescued economy..

11Sri Lanka Interest Rates Empty Re: Sri Lanka Interest Rates on Thu Dec 12, 2019 7:03 pm

NANDANA2012


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@Teller wrote:Mark Mobius brain washes to sell state banks and some state entities.  Now the plan is clear. Listen his speech.
Teller, there is nothing to brain wash.. Its the accepted principal world over. Govt should keep away from business. If they involve in it, end result is corruption and waste. simple as that.

12Sri Lanka Interest Rates Empty government has no money to pay suppliers on Wed Jan 29, 2020 5:56 pm

Teller

Teller
Moderator
Moderator
Private firms which have provided services to Sri Lanka’s government are in difficulties due to delayed payments Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa has said.

Due to a vote on account on which the government is now working with, many private firms that have carried out projects are in difficulties, Prime Minister Rajapaksa has told a progress review meeting at the finance ministry Tuesday.

Cabinet spokesman Bandula Gunewardene said earlier that information has been sought from secretaries to all ministries to tabulate the total payment arrears.

The contracts had been awarded by the previous administration but had not been paid, he said.

“Many small and medium contractors and suppliers have told us that they are in difficulties,” Gunewardene said.

“They all have sad stories to tell. We have called for reports from all secretaries to find out the total.”

Sri Lanka’s fiscal authorities have a habit of running payment arrears to understate the budget deficit in the last two months of the year, which are then settled in January.

Sometime they are settled with so-called ‘provisional advances’ or printed money from the central bank, which in some years puts pressure on the rupee, if private credit is also picking up.

Sri Lanka’s private credit has been weak in 2019, after a currency collapse in 2018 and corrective measures.

The current administration has given a debt relief in a bid to boost private sector activity, though analysts say the credit system usually recovers from a currency collapse after about 18 months.

The current administration had slashed value added tax, which has raised concerns over the state borrowings.

Sri Lanka’s finance ministry has said it is aiming to keep the deficit around 5.5 percent of GDP in 2020 with expenditure cuts.

There have been also calls to cut interest rates raising fears over liquidity injections and pressure on the rupee. (Colombo/Jan29/2020)

13Sri Lanka Interest Rates Empty Re: Sri Lanka Interest Rates on Thu Jan 30, 2020 9:04 am

ThilinaM

ThilinaM
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
many suppliers should not do business with gvt exept nessesary servises. its fraud of our tax money.
approved if they do not get paid . gvt should only expend to develop roads and infrastructure

14Sri Lanka Interest Rates Empty Re: Sri Lanka Interest Rates on Thu Jan 30, 2020 9:05 am

ThilinaM

ThilinaM
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
should cut down free education and free helth also privet medical universitys should be established (no quality concernes required when initial stages

fireshelter

fireshelter
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Jan 30, 2020 (LBO) – Monetary Board of the Central Bank has decided to reduce the Standing Deposit Facility Rate (SDFR) and the Standing Lending Facility Rate (SLFR) by 50 basis points to 6.50 percent and 7.50 percent, respectively.
Statutory Reserve Ratio (SRR), however, will remain unchanged at 5.00 percent.
The board said they arrived at this decision following a careful analysis of current and expected developments in the domestic economy and the financial market as well as the global economy.
The Monetary Board, at its meeting held on 29 January 2020, was of the view that it is essential that market lending rates reduce further in order to support the envisaged pickup in credit growth and economic activity.
“This decision supports a continued reduction in market lending rates, thereby facilitating the envisaged recovery in economic activity given the favourable medium-term outlook for inflation, which is well anchored within the 4-6 percent range,” the board said.
“The Central Bank will continue to monitor macroeconomic and financial market developments with a view to maintaining aggregate demand conditions at appropriate levels, in the period ahead.”

16Sri Lanka Interest Rates Empty Re: Sri Lanka Interest Rates on Thu Jan 30, 2020 9:21 am

Promoney


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Bull run begins

17Sri Lanka Interest Rates Empty Re: Sri Lanka Interest Rates on Thu Jan 30, 2020 9:37 am

KavinduTM

KavinduTM
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@reyaz wrote:There is a relationship or correlation between tax cut govt and torrent of trading with wave if not tsunami of trades. Similarly there is a correlation to Austerity meassures and wikunumsinghe government (UNP= Unwanted foreign iNfluence Party).

Hahah how did i miss this 😂

UNP= Unwanted foreign iNfluence Party


Damn true 😂

18Sri Lanka Interest Rates Empty Re: Sri Lanka Interest Rates on Thu Jan 30, 2020 9:48 am

KavinduTM

KavinduTM
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Promoney wrote:Bull run begins

i hope so too. Uptrend started last week. (those 2 days which was (-) by more than 50 points happened coz of corona. Even world markets were down.)

19Sri Lanka Interest Rates Empty Re: Sri Lanka Interest Rates on Thu Jan 30, 2020 9:52 am

Kipling


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Hi Kavindu 
Today 50bp policy rate cut.
I expected strong up move.
Bit lackluster.
Any reason.
Thanks

20Sri Lanka Interest Rates Empty Re: Sri Lanka Interest Rates on Thu Jan 30, 2020 10:01 am

KavinduTM

KavinduTM
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Kipling wrote:Hi Kavindu 
Today 50bp policy rate cut.
I expected strong up move.
Bit lackluster.
Any reason.
Thanks

Hi Kipling
Yeah i also hope a good move.
Market just started neh  Smile
Lets see the closing index.

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