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Sri Lanka Equity Forum » Stock Market Talk » Sri Lanka Stock Market to remain flat in 2020

Sri Lanka Stock Market to remain flat in 2020

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1Sri Lanka Stock Market to remain flat in 2020 Empty ASPI should come down by 368 points on Mon Jan 06, 2020 2:15 pm

Teller

Teller
Moderator
Moderator
Based on my latest calcs with expected earnings and negative influence to bank,  and foreign sells, ASPI should touch 5722 points. Currently 6072.

ThilinaM

ThilinaM
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
most of your predictions went correct .tell me what is your secret of predicting short term market????

how do you calculate overall aspi ?? by forign sels or what??

Bulljack


Stock Trader
Teller is a day dreamer.

Bulljack


Stock Trader
Due to US attack on Iranian General, stock markets in Europe are down. So ASPI followed. I do not think Iran has ability to attack the Super power. Tension will die down soon.

ThilinaM

ThilinaM
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@bulljack - how that is affecting srilanka. it is not logical??

NZ BOY

NZ BOY
Moderator
Moderator
Day Dream😂😂

Teller

Teller
Moderator
Moderator
Aspi will reach 5722, rupee is very near to life time low, based on that foreigners will loose, im same way loosing amount approx 16.5 billion Mkt capitalization . At least 300 points to be down.


_________________




Teller said is said..

ThilinaM

ThilinaM
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
may be more

Teller

Teller
Moderator
Moderator
Dont think only war bring the sri lankan market down, my sell signal initiated at the time of tax reversal only. Due to those reversals , government lost billions of income and they failed to justify alternative sources. Thats why fitch and other downgrades happened. In the same way negatve loan schemes , hit the banks. Its look rupee got the depreciation hit and foreigners will loose their capital invested. I further expect accelerated foreign sell but the worse scenario , no buyer will absorb the sell. So we can see a free fall


_________________




Teller said is said..

Miss-Sangeetha

Miss-Sangeetha
Moderator
Moderator
@Teller wrote:Dont think only war bring the sri lankan market down, my sell signal initiated at the time of tax reversal only. Due to those reversals , government lost billions of income and they failed to justify alternative sources. Thats why fitch and other downgrades happened. In the same way negatve loan schemes , hit the banks. Its look rupee got the depreciation hit and foreigners will loose their capital invested. I further expect accelerated foreign sell but the worse scenario , no buyer will absorb the sell. So we can see a free fall
Teller don't create panic to facilitate your boss to buy shares at very low price from panic retailers in the eve of Iran attack. 



Last edited by Miss-Sangeetha on Wed Jan 08, 2020 12:47 pm; edited 1 time in total

Teller

Teller
Moderator
Moderator
Who cares Iran?


_________________




Teller said is said..

ThilinaM

ThilinaM
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
HI Teller - Can you explain this Avarage return in dow jones is like 5.45% and average return in ASPI is like 12.5% SL inflation rate is like 6% and us inflation is 2% and ruppe to doller dipreciation only 1%

5.45%-2% = 3.45%
12.5%-6% = 6.5% -1%

there is 2% return buffer . so why forign sell like panic ????
If my calculations are wrong please give the numbers???
Or they are shifting SL to other emerging markets (not back to USA) ??

Teller

Teller
Moderator
Moderator
@Thili, study the rupee depreciation, you will get an answer.
Example ,
mr.Jhon is a foreign investor, he invested 1 million USD
USD
At the time of investment (1 USD = 110)
Suppose if he encash his investment with 50% share price appreciation , due to currency depreciation still he loss around 15%. Same way dividend too. Foreigners have to convert USD to LKR , again LKR to USD. In such scenario we have to implement share trades in USD


_________________




Teller said is said..

ThilinaM

ThilinaM
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
ok usd 110lkr in 2009 .01.01
now 181 lkr at 2020.01.01

11 years went
Appreciation rate is 110X 1.047^11 = 180
So doller dip against rupee is 4.7%

4.7% is no big issue????  i got actual figures and argued. i cant accept your argument bro Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy
comment on my calculation. if person make 12.5% in SL and 5.5% in usa 12.5-4.7% = 7.8 average return there is 3% 4% buffer????

ThilinaM

ThilinaM
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
It would be a real issue if figure is above 7.5% means inflation is above 10% but inflation above 10% times market average return will also be go up may be

Teller

Teller
Moderator
Moderator
Thats only one scenario, i have 8+ scenarios , how CSE will not success and 85% companies are over value here


_________________




Teller said is said..

ThilinaM

ThilinaM
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
85% companys are bad 100% accepted. please enlighten us on other 8... please

18Sri Lanka Stock Market to remain flat in 2020 Empty Please enlight us other 8 on Wed Jan 08, 2020 12:08 pm

ThilinaM

ThilinaM
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Teller wrote:Thats only one scenario, i have 8+ scenarios , how CSE will not success and 85% companies are over value here

ThilinaM

ThilinaM
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Hi teller can you tell me how did you arrived this 368 points??? if some one tell something here they should be explain the logic behind it. ???

dial


Stock Trader
@ThilinaM wrote:Hi teller can you tell me how did you arrived this 368 points??? if some one tell something here they should be explain the logic behind it. ???

He doesn't know, he just wanted to comes the index to buy back at lower level and he influence other to sell their valuable share.
He knows most of the shares on the market brought for credit and when the situation happened like this (middle east tension) people are panic and sell their shares and eventually  selling pressure build up. you all can see that no much turn over even price goes down that means all retailers are selling. 
Dont sell valuable shares, bcz this kind of jeckle all over the globe.

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