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Sri Lanka Equity Forum » Stock Market Talk » Sri Lanka Stock Market to remain flat in 2020

Sri Lanka Stock Market to remain flat in 2020

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1Sri Lanka Stock Market to remain flat in 2020 Empty Sri Lanka Stock Market to remain flat in 2020 on Wed Jan 22, 2020 10:52 am

Quibit

Quibit
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Colombo Stock market to remain flat entirely in 2020 and end up around 5852 as predicted by Trading economics and technically graphed via 10 year ASI movement chart given below.

Sri Lanka Stock Market to remain flat in 2020 Screen60

Sri Lanka Stock Market to remain flat in 2020 Screen59

https://tradingeconomics.com/sri-lanka/forecast

NANDANA2012


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Are these charts 100% sure ???

Kipling


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Trading Economics- Check past track record for validity. Made amazing prediction in 2009. Totally off.

Teller

Teller
Moderator
Moderator
Haha, i predicted this one month earlier. Rupee will be another historical low with in 2 weeks. If we want to avoid the situation , we must hike fuel prices.


_________________




Teller said is said..

God Father


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
Shares will move within short range. There may be few big gainers and some big losers. Long term investors will not lose.

jaya


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
No body can forecast correctly, many things can change easily, any soon.
We are living in the changing world without borders

ASDDS


Stock Trader
@Teller wrote:Haha,  i predicted this one month earlier. Rupee will be another historical low with in 2 weeks. If we want to avoid the situation , we must hike fuel prices.
Smile Smile Smile Smile Smile We've seen more than your guesses Very Happy Very Happy

Arrowrisk

Arrowrisk
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@Teller wrote:Haha,  i predicted this one month earlier. Rupee will be another historical low with in 2 weeks. If we want to avoid the situation , we must hike fuel prices.

Yes, we can see it ....

Kipling


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Global Fuel prices crashing. Why should SL hike? ISIS & Diaspora agenda? UNP attempt to avert humiliating defeat @ GE?

Quibit

Quibit
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
ASI to move between narrow range 5600 - 6400 during 2020

Sri Lanka Stock Market to remain flat in 2020 Screen66

KavinduTM

KavinduTM
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Quibit wrote:ASI to move between narrow range 5600 - 6400 during 2020

Sri Lanka Stock Market to remain flat in 2020 Screen66

No i don't think it can be predicted in that way. Study charts between 2010 - 2015 period. And 2015 - 2020 period. Everything is changing with the governments. So above mentioned "downtrend" will be broken in May.

KavinduTM

KavinduTM
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
And CSE won't remain flat in 2020.

Kipling


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
With the recovery in economic activity and company earnings, First Capital expects an upward trend in the market supported by stronger market multiples. The heavy tax cuts and the policy rate cut is likely to be an added boost for company earnings.
Considering the mid-term positive impact, we upgrade our equity exposure to 100% while maintaining our ASPI expectations for Jun 2020 at 6,500, assuming Market PER to be in the range of 8.5x – 9.5x. However, we upgrade our ASPI target of Dec 2020 to 7,500 from the previous 7,000 amidst the added boost to the economy, according to First Capital Equity Strategy - Jan 2020.
With the strong market valuation but weak external environment with high interest rates, political uncertainty and uncertainty in the global markets, Sri Lanka equity market started the year off on a weak note as First Capital Research recommended only an equity exposure of 60% while recommending maintain cash at 40%. However, as valuations further improved, and market interest rates saw a sharp fall, we gradually upgraded our equity exposure targets.
Market reversed its heavy downtrend in May 2019 and registered strong uptrend which lasted up to the end of the year erasing all loses during the year to register a marginal +1% gain for 2019.
Following the Presidential Election and appointment of the new Cabinet, the political uncertainty which prevailed for an extended duration eased, providing stability and policy certainty for investors. It has also given a major boost to business confidence as the LMD-Nielsen business confidence index jumps to a 51-month high of 186 for Dec 2019.

On November 27, 2019, Government announced hefty tax reliefs, reducing VAT to 8% (from 15%), removing of NBT and revising PAYE tax with the expectation of increasing the consumer spending while boosting the economic growth of the country.
As an extension to the stimulus package, Govt. took measures to remove DRL on banks and NBFIs and revise downwards the corporate tax rates across all sectors. Further, supporting Govt.’s efforts to revive growth, CBSL on January 30 took to cut policy rates by 50bps despite credit growth accelerating in November and Dec ember 2019.
FIrst Capital Research 
Kavindu- Hope this supports your statement 

KavinduTM

KavinduTM
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Yeah @Kipling Absolutely.

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