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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » CORPORATE CHRONICLE™ » Sri Lanka Stock Market to remain flat in 2020

Sri Lanka Stock Market to remain flat in 2020

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1Sri Lanka Stock Market to remain flat in 2020 Empty ASPI should come down by 368 points Mon Jan 06, 2020 2:15 pm

Teller

Teller
Moderator
Moderator

Based on my latest calcs with expected earnings and negative influence to bank,  and foreign sells, ASPI should touch 5722 points. Currently 6072.

ThilinaM

ThilinaM
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics

most of your predictions went correct .tell me what is your secret of predicting short term market????

how do you calculate overall aspi ?? by forign sels or what??

Bulljack


Stock Trader

Teller is a day dreamer.

Bulljack


Stock Trader

Due to US attack on Iranian General, stock markets in Europe are down. So ASPI followed. I do not think Iran has ability to attack the Super power. Tension will die down soon.

ThilinaM

ThilinaM
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics

@bulljack - how that is affecting srilanka. it is not logical??

NZ BOY

NZ BOY
Moderator
Moderator

Day Dream😂😂

Teller

Teller
Moderator
Moderator

Aspi will reach 5722, rupee is very near to life time low, based on that foreigners will loose, im same way loosing amount approx 16.5 billion Mkt capitalization . At least 300 points to be down.

ThilinaM

ThilinaM
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics

may be more

Teller

Teller
Moderator
Moderator

Dont think only war bring the sri lankan market down, my sell signal initiated at the time of tax reversal only. Due to those reversals , government lost billions of income and they failed to justify alternative sources. Thats why fitch and other downgrades happened. In the same way negatve loan schemes , hit the banks. Its look rupee got the depreciation hit and foreigners will loose their capital invested. I further expect accelerated foreign sell but the worse scenario , no buyer will absorb the sell. So we can see a free fall

Miss-Sangeetha

Miss-Sangeetha
Moderator
Moderator

Teller wrote:Dont think only war bring the sri lankan market down, my sell signal initiated at the time of tax reversal only. Due to those reversals , government lost billions of income and they failed to justify alternative sources. Thats why fitch and other downgrades happened. In the same way negatve loan schemes , hit the banks. Its look rupee got the depreciation hit and foreigners will loose their capital invested. I further expect accelerated foreign sell but the worse scenario , no buyer will absorb the sell. So we can see a free fall
Teller don't create panic to facilitate your boss to buy shares at very low price from panic retailers in the eve of Iran attack. 



Last edited by Miss-Sangeetha on Wed Jan 08, 2020 12:47 pm; edited 1 time in total

Teller

Teller
Moderator
Moderator

Who cares Iran?

ThilinaM

ThilinaM
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics

HI Teller - Can you explain this Avarage return in dow jones is like 5.45% and average return in ASPI is like 12.5% SL inflation rate is like 6% and us inflation is 2% and ruppe to doller dipreciation only 1%

5.45%-2% = 3.45%
12.5%-6% = 6.5% -1%

there is 2% return buffer . so why forign sell like panic ????
If my calculations are wrong please give the numbers???
Or they are shifting SL to other emerging markets (not back to USA) ??

Teller

Teller
Moderator
Moderator

@Thili, study the rupee depreciation, you will get an answer.
Example ,
mr.Jhon is a foreign investor, he invested 1 million USD
USD
At the time of investment (1 USD = 110)
Suppose if he encash his investment with 50% share price appreciation , due to currency depreciation still he loss around 15%. Same way dividend too. Foreigners have to convert USD to LKR , again LKR to USD. In such scenario we have to implement share trades in USD

ThilinaM

ThilinaM
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics

ok usd 110lkr in 2009 .01.01
now 181 lkr at 2020.01.01

11 years went
Appreciation rate is 110X 1.047^11 = 180
So doller dip against rupee is 4.7%

4.7% is no big issue????  i got actual figures and argued. i cant accept your argument bro Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy
comment on my calculation. if person make 12.5% in SL and 5.5% in usa 12.5-4.7% = 7.8 average return there is 3% 4% buffer????

ThilinaM

ThilinaM
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics

It would be a real issue if figure is above 7.5% means inflation is above 10% but inflation above 10% times market average return will also be go up may be

Teller

Teller
Moderator
Moderator

Thats only one scenario, i have 8+ scenarios , how CSE will not success and 85% companies are over value here

ThilinaM

ThilinaM
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics

85% companys are bad 100% accepted. please enlighten us on other 8... please

18Sri Lanka Stock Market to remain flat in 2020 Empty Please enlight us other 8 Wed Jan 08, 2020 12:08 pm

ThilinaM

ThilinaM
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics

Teller wrote:Thats only one scenario, i have 8+ scenarios , how CSE will not success and 85% companies are over value here

ThilinaM

ThilinaM
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics

Hi teller can you tell me how did you arrived this 368 points??? if some one tell something here they should be explain the logic behind it. ???

dial


Stock Trader

ThilinaM wrote:Hi teller can you tell me how did you arrived this 368 points??? if some one tell something here they should be explain the logic behind it. ???

He doesn't know, he just wanted to comes the index to buy back at lower level and he influence other to sell their valuable share.
He knows most of the shares on the market brought for credit and when the situation happened like this (middle east tension) people are panic and sell their shares and eventually  selling pressure build up. you all can see that no much turn over even price goes down that means all retailers are selling. 
Dont sell valuable shares, bcz this kind of jeckle all over the globe.

ThilinaM

ThilinaM
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics

@dial - i was observing teller and most of his predictions are better than people in this forum. there are some things to lurn from teller. since im in to long term tellers predictions are less usefull to me but i want to know how he do this.

Teller

Teller
Moderator
Moderator

If any one believe , this happened due to war , click below link and see. Most of the world markets better but CSE worse. So understand the scenarios why CSE down. I use many tools to analyse
https://www.investing.com/indices/major-indices

Teller

Teller
Moderator
Moderator

As a percentage , CSE is the worst in the world. This is not because of the world. This is due to policy changes and as a result foreigners exit due to rupee falls.

chandike73

chandike73
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

Most of the sellings are panic(today scenario). Isn't it?

Teller

Teller
Moderator
Moderator

Some people says, i made them panic..hahaaa its a grate joke. How small guy can change whole market? I know now how powerful this forum is?

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