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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » CORPORATE CHRONICLE™ » Sri Lanka Stock Market to remain flat in 2020

Sri Lanka Stock Market to remain flat in 2020

+41
Junior investor
kasun_gimhana
npgslnawa
fireshelter
Beta1
Eugine Fernando
Sanju121
CITIZEN
naveen
MoneyLover
Hope123
Eranga87
Equityinvestor
bhanu
Winner123
Randikaayesh123
Avon
Thushara Ayya
GOSL
ColomboCSE
Ekanayake90
Arrowrisk
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Kipling
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Quibit
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INDY 500
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45 posters

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Ekanayake90


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

Technically + Election fever I love you✨

Kipling


Expert
Expert

Dear Kavindu 
Reference your last post.
Do you have mini or major bull in mind or both.if so any revised targets?
See Ashok Pathirage comments on SHL 9M IR.
Economy expected to be galvanized post GE by new political equation & resulting bold & decisive leadership.
Await your feedback.
Thanks.

GOSL


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic

New questions over investment policy disclosure of Sri Lanka’s EPF
Monday February 17, 2020 06:46:31

ECONOMYNEXT- Sri Lanka’s central bank will not publish a newly devised investment policy on Employees Provident Fund of private sector workers’ it manages, an official said, raising questions on the level of public disclosure required over its policies and operations.

In an apparent reversal of past practices an investment policy statement of Sri Lanka’s Employees’ Provident Fund, a pension fund of private sector workers, managed by the state, will not be published, but only some guidelines.

“The investment policy is an internal document, so we are not publishing it in total but certain guidelines we have already made available,” Deputy Governor H A Karunaratne told reporters in Colombo at the last media conference of the agency.

It is not clear what ‘certain guidelines’ are. The, EPF’s websites’ Fund Management’ page says that monies will be invested in securities and corporate instruments.

The webpage was last updated in April 2019, and now says the fund will be innovatively managed.

Before the update, the site said funds will be invested in ‘fundamentally sound listed and unlisted equities and high credit worthy corporate debt instruments’ as well as reverse repurchase agreements.

A new Investment Policy had been under formulation since 2018.

In May 2019, then-Governor Indrajit Coomaraswamy told reporters that the new Investment Policy Statement was still being finalized, with some elements still being added to it.

In January 2020, Karunaratne said the Investment Policy has now been approved by the monetary board.

In the past however an Investment Policy Statement has been made available to the public, though not as detailed as policies made public by public pension funds elsewhere.

Top pension funds in the world which are among the largest institutional investor in financial markets, disclose not only the broad investment policies but detailed investment approaches for different asset classes and also benchmarks.

Some, such as the US Social Security and Singapore’s Central Provident Fund invest only in government bonds.

Among mixed investment funds, the California Public Employees’ Retirement System (CALPERS), one of the world’s top ten with 402 billion US dollars in assets, publishes its investment policies as well as detailed strategies on portfolio management .

Australia’s Super, which is another top 10 fund in the world, not only provides investment strategies, but also allows Super members to personally make decisions on their investments.

Japan’s Government Pension Investment Fund publishes an Investment Policy Statement similar to the one published in the past by the Central Bank of Sri Lanka.

Investments of the EPF have come under scrutiny after forensic audit reports showed questionable investment strategies and weak control.

Some investments had been made violating the Investment Policy Statement and Investment Committee approval, the audits said.

The EPF had been managed without complete paperwork, the audits had also revealed.

In 2018, the EPF had returned 9.54 percent, at a time when most local funds faced falling returns.

However, some did better than the EPF like the CAL Income Fund which returned 12.14 percent, First Capital Money Market Fund with a 13.34 percent return and JB Vantage Money Market Fund’s 12.05 percent return.

Download: Text of an earlier policy statement published by the EPF. (Colombo/Feb10/2020)

KavinduTM


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

@Kipling wrote:Dear Kavindu 
Reference your last post.
Do you have mini or major bull in mind or both.if so any revised targets?
See Ashok Pathirage comments on SHL 9M IR.
Economy expected to be galvanized post GE by new political equation & resulting bold & decisive leadership.
Await your feedback.
Thanks.
Hey Kipling.
Both. Na i still think index may adjust to 6400-6500 levels before GE.
Yeah post GE we can expect much. Minimum is 7000 - 7500.Even when there is a chance to touch all time high in 2020. But i expect that to happen in 2021.
Yeah.
My pleasure Smile

Quibit


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

ASI to move between narrow range 5600 - 6400 during 2020

Sri Lanka Stock Market to remain flat in 2020 - Page 4 Screen66

KavinduTM

KavinduTM
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

@Quibit wrote:ASI to move between narrow range 5600 - 6400 during 2020

Sri Lanka Stock Market to remain flat in 2020 - Page 4 Screen66

No i don't think it can be predicted in that way. Study charts between 2010 - 2015 period. And 2015 - 2020 period. Everything is changing with the governments. So above mentioned "downtrend" will be broken in May.

KavinduTM

KavinduTM
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

And CSE won't remain flat in 2020.

Kipling


Expert
Expert

With the recovery in economic activity and company earnings, First Capital expects an upward trend in the market supported by stronger market multiples. The heavy tax cuts and the policy rate cut is likely to be an added boost for company earnings.
Considering the mid-term positive impact, we upgrade our equity exposure to 100% while maintaining our ASPI expectations for Jun 2020 at 6,500, assuming Market PER to be in the range of 8.5x – 9.5x. However, we upgrade our ASPI target of Dec 2020 to 7,500 from the previous 7,000 amidst the added boost to the economy, according to First Capital Equity Strategy - Jan 2020.
With the strong market valuation but weak external environment with high interest rates, political uncertainty and uncertainty in the global markets, Sri Lanka equity market started the year off on a weak note as First Capital Research recommended only an equity exposure of 60% while recommending maintain cash at 40%. However, as valuations further improved, and market interest rates saw a sharp fall, we gradually upgraded our equity exposure targets.
Market reversed its heavy downtrend in May 2019 and registered strong uptrend which lasted up to the end of the year erasing all loses during the year to register a marginal +1% gain for 2019.
Following the Presidential Election and appointment of the new Cabinet, the political uncertainty which prevailed for an extended duration eased, providing stability and policy certainty for investors. It has also given a major boost to business confidence as the LMD-Nielsen business confidence index jumps to a 51-month high of 186 for Dec 2019.

On November 27, 2019, Government announced hefty tax reliefs, reducing VAT to 8% (from 15%), removing of NBT and revising PAYE tax with the expectation of increasing the consumer spending while boosting the economic growth of the country.
As an extension to the stimulus package, Govt. took measures to remove DRL on banks and NBFIs and revise downwards the corporate tax rates across all sectors. Further, supporting Govt.’s efforts to revive growth, CBSL on January 30 took to cut policy rates by 50bps despite credit growth accelerating in November and Dec ember 2019.
FIrst Capital Research 
Kavindu- Hope this supports your statement 

KavinduTM

KavinduTM
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

Yeah @Kipling Absolutely.

Teller

Teller
Moderator
Moderator

Look how tries to rebound . As i said...


_________________




Teller said is said..

GOSL

GOSL
Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic

SEC Chairman to meet stockbrokers

FEBRUARY 18, 2020 BY CHARINDRA
The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the regulator of the Colombo Stock Exchange (CSE) has invited the CEOs of stockbroking firms for a meeting on Thursday (20).

Interestingly, the invitation email has been sent to the CEOs by the SEC External Relations team, when such invitations are usually sent by the SEC Director General (DG).

The meeting, scheduled to be held at the SEC auditorium, will be with SEC Chairman and the SEC Commission members. There is no indication that the DG would be a part of this meeting either.

Stock market analysts speculate that this sudden change may be a sign of the imminent removal of the current DG Vajira Wijegunawardane. The Sunday Morning Business reported on 26th January that Wijegunawardane is likely to be replaced with the current SEC Director – Litigation Chinthaka Mendis.

Wijegunawardane was appointed DG in April 2015 and was an investment analyst and fund manager for 10 years before joining the SEC.

INDY 500


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic

@Teller
Will it take time to reach the territory of ASPI 5772 since market is struggling at current levels with low volumes

KavinduTM

KavinduTM
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

Seems it is turning back. Big funds will enter soon.

Ekanayake90

Ekanayake90
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

EC tells officials General Election on 25 April
Comments /   228 Views / Thursday, 20 February 2020 01:31

TwitterFacebookWhatsApp
Deputy, Asst. and Additional Commissioners meet NEC members
EC Chairman says poll to be held on 25 April
Some officials want postponement saying inadequate time to prepare for poll
Election Commission Chairman Mahinda Deshapriya yesterday told a group of around 30 Deputy, Assistant and Additional Election Commissioners that Parliament would be dissolved on either 2 or 3 March and the General Election held on 25 April.


Election Commission Chairman Mahinda Deshapriya
The meeting was called by the National Election Commission (NEC) to brief them on the arrangements for the election but some of those present requested that the Commission write to President Gotabaya  Rajapaksa requesting that the date of the election be postponed as there was insufficient time to prepare for the poll, Daily FT learns.

However, Commission Chairman has said it was the prerogative of the President to fix the date of the poll and the EC could not interfere in this connection.

The officials had pointed out that some of the payments due to public officials for elections duty for previous elections including the 2018 Local Authorities Election and last year’s Presidential Election were still not paid while some expressed fear that the poll date is too close to the first anniversary of the Easter attacks and with campaigning in full swing, there could be the danger of communal tension cropping up.

There are also concerns that with a large number of new parties seeking registration, there would be inadequate time to consider all the applications if the poll is held on 25

Election rally will continue 🎉🎉

95Sri Lanka Stock Market to remain flat in 2020 - Page 4 Empty It's the time to turn UP now... Thu Feb 20, 2020 12:18 pm

Thushara Ayya

Thushara Ayya
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics

The parliament dissolve on 2nd of March 2020
From next week onward ASI will behave deterrent way (Up trend).

Avon


Stock Analytic
Stock Analytic

Dear Teller
Do you still feel that aspi will rebound at 5772 and if it does, will there be a strong upmove, what would be the resistance? thank you

Teller

Teller
Moderator
Moderator

@Avon, yes, it should be. Have you see How CTC saved ASPI on yeස්turday. 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣


_________________




Teller said is said..

Avon


Stock Analytic
Stock Analytic

Thank you Teller

Promoney


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

Sri Lanka Stock Market to remain flat in 2020 - Page 4 Screen97

Teller

Teller
Moderator
Moderator

Index bottom is 5772..i mean ASPI..it must rebound on or near to it,


_________________




Teller said is said..

Teller

Teller
Moderator
Moderator

COMB has created 2nd uplinear to support, we can expect further run which means positive to index. Same way DIAL can up too. Index lowest will be 5772, so more chances to technically recover.


_________________




Teller said is said..

ThilinaM

ThilinaM
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics

Wait untill i put some money  Very Happy

Thushara Ayya

Thushara Ayya
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics

I am collecting now...

104Sri Lanka Stock Market to remain flat in 2020 - Page 4 Empty ASPI down 4000 Mon Feb 24, 2020 1:19 pm

Randikaayesh123


Stock Analytic
Stock Analytic

I think aspi index down 4000,,,, 2021 year end.investors don' t buying .

Ekanayake90

Ekanayake90
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

@Randikaayesh123 wrote:I think aspi index down  4000,,,,  2021 year end.investors don' t buying .


Good one 😂😂🤣🤣
lol! lol! lol!

Winner123


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

Closer to your expected levels.

Ekanayake90

Ekanayake90
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

Seoul bears brunt as Asia, European markets dive on pandemic fear
Monday February 24, 2020 12:43:53

AFP – Seoul led a sharp drop across Asian and European equity markets Monday as South Korea announced a surge in COVID-19 infections, while oil plunged and safe-haven assets rallied on growing concerns about a possible pandemic.

With the outbreak showing little sign of easing, investors are increasingly concerned it could have a much longer-term impact on the world economy, which was already stuttering, with a number of companies warning about their bottom lines.

Traders had been broadly optimistic that the virus — which has killed nearly 2,600 and infected 80,000 — was being contained outside China but a spurt of infections and deaths in other countries including South Korea, Italy and Iran has fanned fears of a wider outbreak.

“While the coronavirus is probably slowing in China, it is speeding up elsewhere,” said Charles Gillams at RJMG Asset Management.

On Monday, South Korea said it had a total of 833 cases, making it the world’s worst-hit country outside China, with seven people now dead.

President Moon Jae-in has raised the virus alert to the highest “red” level, in a bid to strengthen the government response to the spiralling outbreak.

News of the spread hammered the KOSPI, which sank almost four percent, with market heavyweight Samsung diving 4.1 percent. The won fell 0.9 percent and is sitting at a six-month low.

Hong Kong shed 1.8 percent, with Sydney, Bangkok and Manila each dropping more than two percent. Taipei, Jakarta, Singapore and Wellington were all off more than one percent. Mumbai eased one percent with eyes on Donald Trump’s visit to India.

Shanghai was off 0.3 percent, with losses tempered by a series of economy-boosting measures including support for businesses and other stimulus measures.

London started the day 1.8 percent down, while Frankfurt and Paris each tumbled 2.6 percent.

– ‘Extremely problematic’ –

The losses tracked a selloff on Wall Street, where the S&P 500 and Nasdaq each gave up more than one percent, while US 30-year Treasury yields hit an all-time high, indicating a rush into the safe havens.

Reports of the spread of the virus “raised concerns that we could be starting to see the beginnings of a global pandemic, with authorities seemingly at a loss to explain how or why the virus is spreading, particularly in Europe”, said Michael Hewson at CMC Markets UK.

Chinese President Xi Jinping said the epidemic was the “largest public health emergency” since the founding of the People’s Republic in 1949 and admitted authorities must learn from “obvious shortcomings exposed” during its response.

Beijing will decide later in the day whether to postpone its annual parliament session for the first time since the Cultural Revolution owing to the epidemic.

Meanwhile, Italy has introduced severe containment measures previously seen only in China, with more than 50,000 people in about a dozen northern Italian towns told to stay home.

The virus, which has infected at least 152 people and left three dead in Italy, has also led to the cancellation of several shows at Milan Fashion Week and the early closure of the Venice Carnival.

“Of all the alarming aspects of the rapidly spreading virus out Wuhan is that it’s showing up in patients with no connection to China or the city of Wuhan, ground zero for the outbreak,” said AxiCorp’s Stephen Innes.

This, he added, suggested “things are about to get extremely problematic, and market conditions could get exponentially worse this week”.

The fear on trading floors has sent gold, a go-to asset in times of uncertainty, to a seven-year high, while high-yielding, riskier currencies including the Australian dollar and Indonesian rupiah, were well down.

Crude prices tanked on worries about plunging demand from China, which is the world’s biggest importer and consumer of the commodity, sending energy firms in the region sharply lower. Both main contracts are down more than 10 percent so far this year.

“With the volatility we’re seeing in the coronavirus event, that’s creating angst in the market on the back of growth and demand expectations and we’ve seen oil prices weaken,” said David Lennox at Fat Prophets. “The converse of that is the same event is carrying investors toward a safe haven play and that’s gold.”

Among individual stocks, travel and tourism linked firms continue to take a heavy hit with Sydney-listed Qantas plunging more than seven percent, while in Hong Kong, Air China lost nearly six percent and Cathay Pacific fell more than one percent.

Also in Hong Kong, Macau casino operators Sands China, Galaxy Entertainment and Wynn Macau were down between one and 3.8 percent.

– Key figures around 0820 GMT –

Seoul – KOSPI: DOWN 3.9 percent at 2,079.04 (close)

Shanghai – Composite: DOWN 0.3 percent at 3,031.23 (close)

Hong Kong – Hang Seng: DOWN 1.8 percent at 26,820.88 (close)

Tokyo – Nikkei 225: Closed for a public holiday

London – FTSE 100: DOWN 1.8 percent at 7,272.20

Brent Crude: DOWN 2.9 percent at $56.83 per barrel

West Texas Intermediate: DOWN 2.7 percent at $51.96 per barrel

Gold: UP 1.5 percent at $1,667 per ounce

Dollar/yen: DOWN at 111.56 yen from 111.57 yen at 2200 GMT

Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.0817 from $1.0843

Pound/dollar: DOWN at $1.2940 from $1.2964

Euro/pound: DOWN 83.55 pence at 83.61 pence

New York – Dow: DOWN 0.8 percent to 28,992.41 (close)

— Bloomberg News contributed to this story —

bhanu


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

4000 and 7500 both are unrealistic

Equityinvestor


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

@Randikaayesh123 wrote:I think aspi index down  4000,,,,  2021 year end.investors don' t buying .

Ok...i will sell my portfolio tomorrow adnd will not buy til 2022

INDY 500


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic

@ Teller
Have you re calculated the ASPI at this current levels.
Seemingly it has reached the final destination as you predicted

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