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Can there be another Covid-19 wave in Sri Lanka?

I am worried ! Please share your views. - Page 3 Vote_lcap68%I am worried ! Please share your views. - Page 3 Vote_rcap 68% [ 178 ]
I am worried ! Please share your views. - Page 3 Vote_lcap18%I am worried ! Please share your views. - Page 3 Vote_rcap 18% [ 47 ]
I am worried ! Please share your views. - Page 3 Vote_lcap13%I am worried ! Please share your views. - Page 3 Vote_rcap 13% [ 35 ]

Total Votes : 260

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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » CORPORATE CHRONICLE™ » I am worried ! Please share your views.

I am worried ! Please share your views.

+15
niru
crnsuranjith
Kipling
Equityinvestor
Sajeewa Niranjan
samaritan
fastandeasygrowth
ColomboCSE
cseguide
Teller
kasun_gimhana
Junior investor
Quibit
wallstreetguy
EGG
19 posters

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kasun_gimhana


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

@EGG wrote:Hi All,

Thank you people for sharing your views. Really appreciate it. I know I have been so silly and holding but trying to get out of this mess now. So, please let me know your views.

In a summary these are the shares and the cost that I have purchased. Just want to get your input as to what shares I should hold (at least for 3 to 4 weeks) assuming broker agrees for same and I can minimize the losses.

LOLC 5,000 ave cost 185/-
COLO 20,000 ave cost 85/-
DOCK 20,000 ave cost 64/-
TILE 25,000 ave cost 78/-

Kindly let me know the shares I should look at selling first and the probable shares which I will be able to sell with a lesser loss by holding for couple of weeks.

Thanks again !!


@EGG

Dude Sorry ask this. Are you pohottu supporter? You have purchased everything at the peak after the election. LOLC 185 OMG I brought around 140 and sold 175 within 2 days and made profit. I knew how people react to that news. I commented several times that sellers are winners nobody listened. I might be right or wrong but still saying sell otherwise your money will be wiped out. It is up to you to make the final decision.

fastandeasygrowth


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic

lolc come little up 10%20% may be. u cant revever loss.

Teller following book called understanding wall street. its a good book but strongly do not recomend it to a new comer. if new comer understand the book wrong its his end. book thinks investor trade few times a year and can do market timing easyly. i strongly disagree with it. book techniques are extreamly helpfull but book is extreamly speculative like teller... but thanks teller to reaveling his secreat and book was very helpfull to me.

fastandeasygrowth


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic

understanding wall street should be read with combination of inteligent investors and beat the market by peter lynch + stay in the corse by j bogle. other wise understanding wall street book is like double edged sword

Junior investor


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

@EGG
so out of that 80% outstanding (around 3 million), how much do you have to pay as margin? this 3 million is unrealised lose so far right?

45I am worried ! Please share your views. - Page 3 Empty Re: I am worried ! Please share your views. Fri Apr 17, 2020 10:15 am

EGG


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic

Hi Junior investor,

Thanks, the approx portfolio value is 3.2 and the outstanding is 2.8 My portfolio value was much more than this and it started dropping day by day with the drop in share prices.
Also, with this new support extended by the Gove, can broker force me to sell the shares or is there any grace period which I am entitled for. Kindly enlighten me on that as well pls.

Thanks.

46I am worried ! Please share your views. - Page 3 Empty Re: I am worried ! Please share your views. Fri Apr 17, 2020 10:24 am

Quibit


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

PLEASE FIND BELOW THE DIRECTIVE ISSUED BY THE SEC

To the Colombo Stock Exchange and to all licensed Stock Brokers

Directive issued under and in terms of Section 13 c of the Securities and Exchange Commission of Sri Lanka Act No.36 of 1987 as amended
Granting relief to all investors affected by the market downturn caused by COVID 19 pandemic in Sri Lanka


The Securities and Exchange Commission of Sri Lanka taking into consideration the impact caused to investors as a result of the drop in valuations of listed securities on or about 11th March 2020 has decided to grant a moratorium to the clients of all licensed Stock Brokers and registered Margin Providers from the payment of interest on credit extended to them, which are due during the period commencing 11th March 2020.

This decision has been made upon taking into consideration the decisions taken by the Central Bank of Sri Lanka to set up a Re-financing Facility to implement the decisions taken by the Cabinet of Ministers on 20th March 2020 to introduce a wide range of fiscal and financial concessions to those who have been adversely affected due to the unprecedented situation presently prevailing in the country.

Therefore all licensed Stock Brokers are hereby directed to pass on the benefit they will derive from the decisions announced by the Central Bank of Sri Lanka to their clients and are directed to refrain from charging and recovering interest on credit extended to their clients until 30th June 2020.

This will be a temporary measure and the Securities and Exchange Commission of Sri Lanka shall monitor and review the impact of this directive from time to time and shall reserve its right to amend, vary or repeal this directive anytime before or after 30th June 2020 if deemed appropriate.

The Colombo Stock Exchange is hereby directed to inform all licensed Stock Brokers of thisdirective forthwith.

This directive shall be effective from the date hereof until 30th June 2020.

http://www.sec.gov.lk/wp-content/uploads/Directive..pdf

47I am worried ! Please share your views. - Page 3 Empty Re: I am worried ! Please share your views. Fri Apr 17, 2020 10:31 am

EGG


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic

Dear Quibit,
Thanks for sharing. As per the above, interest will not be charged on the outstanding amount until June. However broker has the right to sell and recover any outstanding right ? I assume I will have to speak to the broker and ask for a extension to hold the shares to avoid force selling. Is my understanding correct. Thanks!!

48I am worried ! Please share your views. - Page 3 Empty Re: I am worried ! Please share your views. Fri Apr 17, 2020 10:47 am

Junior investor

Junior investor
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

okay so, you just have to talk to your broker and explain this whole corona thing is not your fault and ask them not to sell your entire portfolio.

then ask a loan from someone who you can rely on, probably a family member. pay off all the money you have borrowed from the broker within the grace period. hold on until bull market arrive.

or
if you have your own money then just pay all debt and get the hell out of the stock market. yes of course with a big loss.

read intelligent investor of Benjamin graham.

49I am worried ! Please share your views. - Page 3 Empty Re: I am worried ! Please share your views. Fri Apr 17, 2020 11:30 am

niru


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

@Quibit wrote:PLEASE FIND BELOW THE DIRECTIVE ISSUED BY THE SEC

To the Colombo Stock Exchange and to all licensed Stock Brokers

Directive issued under and in terms of Section 13 c of the Securities and Exchange Commission of Sri Lanka Act No.36 of 1987 as amended
Granting relief to all investors affected by the market downturn caused by COVID 19 pandemic in Sri Lanka


The Securities and Exchange Commission of Sri Lanka taking into consideration the impact caused to investors as a result of the drop in valuations of listed securities on or about 11th March 2020 has decided to grant a moratorium to the clients of all licensed Stock Brokers and registered Margin Providers from the payment of interest on credit extended to them, which are due during the period commencing 11th March 2020.

This decision has been made upon taking into consideration the decisions taken by the Central Bank of Sri Lanka to set up a Re-financing Facility to implement the decisions taken by the Cabinet of Ministers on 20th March 2020 to introduce a wide range of fiscal and financial concessions to those who have been adversely affected due to the unprecedented situation presently prevailing in the country.

Therefore all licensed Stock Brokers are hereby directed to pass on the benefit they will derive from the decisions announced by the Central Bank of Sri Lanka to their clients and are directed to refrain from charging and recovering interest on credit extended to their clients until 30th June 2020.

This will be a temporary measure and the Securities and Exchange Commission of Sri Lanka shall monitor and review the impact of this directive from time to time and shall reserve its right to amend, vary or repeal this directive anytime before or after 30th June 2020 if deemed appropriate.

The Colombo Stock Exchange is hereby directed to inform all licensed Stock Brokers of thisdirective forthwith.

This directive shall be effective from the date hereof until 30th June 2020.

http://www.sec.gov.lk/wp-content/uploads/Directive..pdf


Did anyone get this benefit from your broker or margin provider?

50I am worried ! Please share your views. - Page 3 Empty Re: I am worried ! Please share your views. Fri Apr 17, 2020 12:54 pm

kasun_gimhana

kasun_gimhana
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

There is a lesson called " Margin of safety " in the book intelligent investor of Benjamin graham. It seems that lot of people forgot that lesson.

Teller

Teller
Moderator
Moderator

Be greedy when others are fear..hahaaaa


_________________




Teller said is said..

EGG


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic

Hi All,
Thanks for your kind input.

Can I request you all to predict the lowest share price the below shares will fall once its starts trading. This will give me some sort of an idea of my liability towards the broker.

LOLC
TILE
COLO
DOCK

Thanks everyone !!

Junior investor

Junior investor
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

Sri lanka's situation has improved so I don't think market will go down in big amount.

lolc can't go down as they finalised that deal. there is a chance the price go a little bit up.

Tile - America and Europe are not happy with China because of corona. this will be a great opportunity for country like Sri Lanka to grab some market share, especially tile sector. around 50 maybe.

colonial - it will go down a bit because of their motor vehicle section and property development section. price around 30 possible.

Dock - it will go down but not much as lots of stock holders apparently don't want to sell. around Rs 40 most likely.

I have studied little bit about those but
I don't hold any in my portfolio. Tile is the only one I can recommend.

EGG


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic

Hi, thanks a lot Junior investor for your kind input. Appreciate it very much... Any tentative timelines of opening the market. I am very much happy if it will be kept closed considering my issue. lol. Thanks again for your input.

Junior investor

Junior investor
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

next Wednesday

EquityPlus


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic

My assessment of LOLC is as follows.

It's not a bad stock to hold on as the Company is performing quite reasonably. 

Group NBV per share is around 190 as per the latest financial statements. As far as performance is also concerned, I would say it's performance is at a good level despite all the adverse situations in the economy. However, my only worry is that given the current situation post-Covid -19, it's quite difficult to predict where it could potentially move. However, as per my assessment, LOLC's downward movement could be Rs 65 to 70, whereas upward movement could be 90 to 95 over the next 6 to 9 months.

But, it's quite difficult to forecast a price using the typical valuation methods given COVID 19 impact could potentially take the price somewhere we would never imagine of

EquityPlus


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic

Sorry upward up to Rs. 100 and downward Rs.75 level

EquityPlus


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic

Egg, 

Looks like you have entered at slightly a higher price when you acquired these shares. Of course, LOLC, at a very high price which you shouldn't have paid at that time. For others, although it looks slightly towards the higher range, one can't blame you for entering at that price because one would have thought they are undervalued looking at the net assets base. I think we all, including myself make this mistake by catching a share just looking at the all-time high price and think it will increase to that level again. This is where I advise to use safety of margin of at least 30% to minimize downward risk

ChooBoy


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

@EquityPlus wrote:Egg, 

Looks like you have entered at slightly a higher price when you acquired these shares. Of course, LOLC, at a very high price which you shouldn't have paid at that time. For others, although it looks slightly towards the higher range, one can't blame you for entering at that price because one would have thought they are undervalued looking at the net assets base. I think we all, including myself make this mistake by catching a share just looking at the all-time high price and think it will increase to that level again. This is where I advise to use safety of margin of at least 30% to minimize downward risk
Sell LOLC when market open which will be most immuned.  Dont trust anyone. There will be investors who wants to punt LOLC thinking its high side.

I guess Ishara and his funded boys like Tushan Wickramasinghe led by Capital Trust will be selling.



Last edited by ChooBoy on Sun Apr 19, 2020 4:28 pm; edited 1 time in total

EGG


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic

Hi EquityPlus,
Thanks for your input. Yes, I bought at these prices thinking it will go up and I will be able to make a quick buck. Never knew Covid-19 will hit us so badly.
Let's hope for the best.
If anyone can think of a better game plan for me to get out of this mess, kindly share your views.
I would like to thank all of you for taking time to share your valuable input. Thanks guys !!

cseguide

cseguide
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics

@cseguide wrote:
@EGG wrote:Dear All,

Can you kindly let me know if the market will drop further when it starts trading. If so, what will be the approx ASI index we are looking at. I have a portfolio of 3.6M and 80% outstanding. My outstanding keeps increasing when the portfolio drops. So I am worried if I should sell and exit when it starts trading. If not, my portfolio value will not be sufficient to cover the outstanding amount. Also, I have no way to pump in cash to settle the outstanding either.

Please let me know your views pls.

Thanks
I can understand the situation and I have faced similar situations in my early days. I ll give my opinion on this but the final decision should be taken by you. Thre is a very high probability to further drop the market in its opening and short to medium term. so your investment can further drop and your outstanding will increase further. so it is less risky to sell all your investment sooner for the highest price and pay the outstanding about to stockbroker and keep left with you which you can use to repurchase once the market touches its bottom. This is the least risky decision since you are in a marginal trade position.
The answer I have given early for you is quite right. Now If you are still there, there is some time for you to take the right decision at the right time. money is yours and also the decision is yours. This is up to you my friend!!

Quibit


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

@cseguide wrote:
@cseguide wrote:
@EGG wrote:Dear All,

Can you kindly let me know if the market will drop further when it starts trading. If so, what will be the approx ASI index we are looking at. I have a portfolio of 3.6M and 80% outstanding. My outstanding keeps increasing when the portfolio drops. So I am worried if I should sell and exit when it starts trading. If not, my portfolio value will not be sufficient to cover the outstanding amount. Also, I have no way to pump in cash to settle the outstanding either.

Please let me know your views pls.

Thanks
I can understand the situation and I have faced similar situations in my early days. I ll give my opinion on this but the final decision should be taken by you. Thre is a very high probability to further drop the market in its opening and short to medium term. so your investment can further drop and your outstanding will increase further. so it is less risky to sell all your investment sooner for the highest price and pay the outstanding about to stockbroker and keep left with you which you can use to repurchase once the market touches its bottom. This is the least risky decision since you are in a marginal trade position.
The answer I have given early for you is quite right. Now If you are still there, there is some time for you to take the right decision at the right time. money is yours and also the decision is yours. This is up to you my friend!!

Great advise.
LOLC lost only 80 cents less than 1%. About 55,000 shares traded. Very few had the opportunity to sell as the market closed within 38 seconds. Hope @Egg was luck to have exited.

63I am worried ! Please share your views. - Page 3 Empty Re: I am worried ! Please share your views. Tue May 12, 2020 10:28 am

Eugine Fernando


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

@Quibit wrote:
@cseguide wrote:
@cseguide wrote:
@EGG wrote:Dear All,

Can you kindly let me know if the market will drop further when it starts trading. If so, what will be the approx ASI index we are looking at. I have a portfolio of 3.6M and 80% outstanding. My outstanding keeps increasing when the portfolio drops. So I am worried if I should sell and exit when it starts trading. If not, my portfolio value will not be sufficient to cover the outstanding amount. Also, I have no way to pump in cash to settle the outstanding either.

Please let me know your views pls.

Thanks
I can understand the situation and I have faced similar situations in my early days. I ll give my opinion on this but the final decision should be taken by you. Thre is a very high probability to further drop the market in its opening and short to medium term. so your investment can further drop and your outstanding will increase further. so it is less risky to sell all your investment sooner for the highest price and pay the outstanding about to stockbroker and keep left with you which you can use to repurchase once the market touches its bottom. This is the least risky decision since you are in a marginal trade position.
The answer I have given early for you is quite right. Now If you are still there, there is some time for you to take the right decision at the right time. money is yours and also the decision is yours. This is up to you my friend!!

Great advise.
LOLC lost only 80 cents less than 1%. About 55,000 shares traded. Very few had the opportunity to sell as the market closed within 38 seconds. Hope @Egg was luck to have exited.
My advice is sell minimum loss shares and bring down your margin to 50%.

EGG


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic

Dear all,
Thanks for checking on me. I managed to find some cash and reduced the exposure close to 40%.
I would like to thank all of you for taking time and sharing your kind input which is greatly appreciated.
It's nice to know that we are there for each other and atleast support each other by sharing our knowledge and expertise. Once again, thanks everyone. Good luck to all.

65I am worried ! Please share your views. - Page 3 Empty Re: I am worried ! Please share your views. Thu May 14, 2020 12:01 pm

samaritan


Moderator
Moderator

EGG,
Even the ECG (Electrocardiogram) tracing goes up & down indicating you are alive, if it is flat then you are gone for good. I am sure the lesson learnt will make you more wiser in the future.GL


_________________




The biggest risk in life is not taking any risk at all.

glad


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

@samaritan wrote:EGG,
Even the ECG (Electrocardiogram) tracing goes up & down indicating you are alive, if it is flat then you are gone for good. I am sure the lesson learnt will make you more wiser in the future.GL
Do a by-pass

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