I used a conservative EPS figure for the TAFL Q4. They may report even higher earnings as December is the best quarter for the poultry sector. This time it may be even better due to people reluctant to eat fish and the higher turnover from global business as a result of supply shortages due to COVID 19 pandemic.
If you analyse the September quarterly accounts you can see TAFL has recorded a tax credit and no tax charge for BAFL. However for GRAN, tax benefit is received only because of TAFL. GRAN Company is taxed. My argument is for these poultry companies tax concession was already in place from the beginning of the year (not from the budget), and GRAN seems not classified under the same sector hence they don’t get the tax benefit.
If we take BFL and go with an highly optimistic assumption that they will continue to repeat the last qtr results for every quarter, still it trades at same P/E multiple of TAFL. We don't know whether that will materialize, as BFL has kept on making losses for last several quarters and only the September quarter they have turned it to a profit. However annual EPS of Rs. 16.50 and 37.50 for GRAN & TAFL is very realistic. True that BFL has a higher NAVPS and just in case if they get the beef import license that rumor says it may become a different story.
TAFL has Rs. 3 Billion + cash balance as at 30th September 2020. Highly cash rich company. All in all TAFL seems the best bet out of the lot and I personally feel Rs. 200 for this share is just a matter of time.
And also if you are lucky you may get a chance to collect it at a discount price today being the Xd date.
If there is anything wrong with this you are more than welcome to highlight