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Sri Lanka Equity Forum » Stock Market Talk » Expert Chamber » Exciting RICH

Exciting RICH

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21Exciting RICH - Page 2 Empty Re: Exciting RICH on Thu Jun 30, 2011 10:58 pm

nkalansu


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
There is no need to explain the story at Maskeliya Plantaions. This company has been loss making for quite some time now (losses in the financial years 2008/2009, 2009/2010) and having their financial problems. So I do not think this company will make a much of a difference to the group. If it makes profits ...then that's very good.

Another interesting development is that RPC Management Services Pvt. Limited, the holding company of Maskeliya Plantations has increased its shareholding of Maskeliya by 2.3 million shares from December 2010 to date, latest being on 07.06.2011 where it acquired 350,000 shares. Pending wage increase to the plantation sector employees, there must be a reason for doing this. The only reason i can see is that RICH sees lot of potential in the business (maskeliya).

However RICH owns two other great plantation companies which are doing very well,namely Kegalle Plantations and Namunukula Plantations where the majority of plantation is rubber. With the expectation of increased rubber prices these companies will contribute very positively to the bottom line of the group which would cancel out any negative contribution from maskeliya.

RICH is the largest Tea and Rubber producer in Sri Lanka. Since RICH is very good at managing plantations i think it is their strong point. So they will manage any overseas Palm oil cultivation project very effectively. It is very good news for RICH holders.

Therefore i am very optimistic of the future of this company even though some are trying to give a gloomy picture of the group.

Disclosure : I hold RICH and intends to increase my current holding.



Last edited by nkalansu on Fri Jul 01, 2011 9:28 pm; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : spelling mistakes)

22Exciting RICH - Page 2 Empty Re: Exciting RICH on Fri Jul 01, 2011 1:49 am

Slstock


Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics


Many Thanks for the Update Chinwi. Was awaitign your update after the last thread discussion. Appreciate it.

23Exciting RICH - Page 2 Empty Re: Exciting RICH on Fri Jul 01, 2011 7:23 am

Chinwi


Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
@slstock wrote:

Many Thanks for the Update Chinwi. Was awaitign your update after the last thread discussion. Appreciate it.

I can remember you wanted me to go there.

BTW, There were less attended this time - because of their ' NO Gifts ' announcement. :-). The management appreciated the people who came there and the Chairman delivered a good speech. ( Last time it was very different due to huge crowd )



24Exciting RICH - Page 2 Empty Re: Exciting RICH on Fri Jul 01, 2011 7:28 am

ssb


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
is this mean RICH go UP Smile

25Exciting RICH - Page 2 Empty Re: Exciting RICH on Fri Jul 01, 2011 11:21 pm

Chinwi


Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
@ssb wrote:is this mean RICH go UP Smile

No dear !

I wrote the comments just to update those who did not get a chance to go there.

I do not expect the share going up just because of this news as this story is about a long process expanding over many years .

I do not like it going up now because with my future cash flow I expect to collect this share. :-) - just teasing.

If lot of long term investors decide to collect RICH at the current prices then it may go up.

Actually, I am shifting from 'buying shares' to 'investing in businesses'. Hence I select RICH as a business I should buy. When you think this way you do not bother much about short term fluctuations , up or down.

Thanks


26Exciting RICH - Page 2 Empty Re: Exciting RICH on Fri Jul 01, 2011 11:37 pm

nkalansu


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@Chinwi wrote:
@ssb wrote:is this mean RICH go UP Smile

No dear !

I wrote the comments just to update those who did not get a chance to go there.

I do not expect the share going up just because of this news as this story is about a long process expanding over many years .

I do not like it going up now because with my future cash flow I expect to collect this share. :-) - just teasing.

If lot of long term investors decide to collect RICH at the current prices then it may go up.

Actually, I am shifting from 'buying shares' to 'investing in businesses'. Hence I select RICH as a business I should buy. When you think this way you do not bother much about short term fluctuations , up or down.

Thanks




Hi there Chinwi,

I am too interested in investing in RICH as a long term investment and like you investing in businesses rather than buying shares. Since you have attended the AGM I would like to know whether they have disclosed any information about expanding the retail segment ( Arpico Super Centers).

Please share your thoughts.

Thanks

27Exciting RICH - Page 2 Empty Re: Exciting RICH on Sat Jul 02, 2011 3:04 am

econ

econ
Global Moderator
I think Dr yaddehige is true model for Sri Lankans. Unlike other Sri Lankan investors who earned money from many unethical business, He earned his money using his technology innovations and come back to his home country and invest in local business.



Last edited by econ on Sat Jul 02, 2011 3:05 am; edited 1 time in total

28Exciting RICH - Page 2 Empty Re: Exciting RICH on Sat Jul 02, 2011 3:04 am

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
@Chinwi wrote:
@slstock wrote:

Many Thanks for the Update Chinwi. Was awaitign your update after the last thread discussion. Appreciate it.

I can remember you wanted me to go there.

BTW, There were less attended this time - because of their ' NO Gifts ' announcement. :-). The management appreciated the people who came there and the Chairman delivered a good speech. ( Last time it was very different due to huge crowd )




Yes Chinwi. Thanks again for the update. I am glad this Gift Issue is out of the way so only real investors come to the meeting and the Management can focuses more on real business views. I recall Chairman admitted MASK being more exposed to Wage issues but I think KGAL and NAMU might be able to offset any imbalance in the medium term as they did in the past.

Now at CSE ( going by this forum responses also) many seems to be only interested in Short term due to Market conditions.

But for those of us who is interested into "investing in Businesses", I see RICH also as a good long term play. RICH will be good for those who does not have to worry about loosing sleep over it and can hold and forget about it.

29Exciting RICH - Page 2 Empty Re: Exciting RICH on Sat Jul 02, 2011 6:21 am

Aamiable


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
RICH depreciation was small compared to some other shares . hope this returns to normal soon.

30Exciting RICH - Page 2 Empty Re: Exciting RICH on Sat Jul 02, 2011 6:46 am

tubal


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Aamiable wrote:RICH depreciation was small compared to some other shares . hope this returns to normal soon.

Thanks MarketWatch for reminding everyone that this has dropped much less than many of the others. So the implication is that the worst is yet to come.

31Exciting RICH - Page 2 Empty Re: Exciting RICH on Sat Jul 02, 2011 4:00 pm

MoneyLover

MoneyLover
Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
@nkalansu wrote:
@Quibit wrote:
@innam wrote:thank you for this very useful post AGM update
if what he disclosed is 100% truthful the statement "They are in the middle of acquiring an Insurance company", it would explain the sudden jump in ACAP and the staggering around of AAIC (RICH seems to own 25% of it already).
lets see how exactly this scenario turns out

Richard Pieris is in trouble after major wage rise in the Maskeliya plantation. Group is struggling to raise finance to fund working capital for plantation companies. It is very unlikely that Richard Pieris would be able to raise Rs 4bn to fund the acquisition of Asian Allinace. Only Time will tell us...

Can you please give detailed explanation as to how you arrived at following conclusions..with facts and figures please...

1. "Richard Pieris is in trouble after major wage rise in the Maskeliya plantation. Group is struggling to raise
finance to fund working capital for plantation companies."

2. "It is very unlikely that Richard Pieris would be able to raise Rs 4bn to fund the acquisition of Asian
Allinace."

@Quibit wrote:No chairman is going to let his company down.. Especially the chairman of Richard Pieris. We all know about him little too well. Just talk to few of your friends at the Maskeliya Plantation, talk to company Bankers and to the stock brokers. They will tell you a story very differently to what few of you guys heard today.

Research and analysis of a company cannot be done by just going through statement of accounts or reading or listening to the chairmans statement in an annual report. It involves lot more hard work and effort much similar to inventing the pedal mechanism for automobile accelaration.

Only time will tell you the truth. Just like a palm tree which takes 6 year to give it's harvest!!!

It appears that there are lot of facts avalable with, but it had not been established by tabling the evidence. Hence, "Only time will tell you the truth" became a insufficient answer for the time for both questions asked (by nkalansu), as any one can give such an answer with or without facts.

True, TEA sector is affect the most by recent wage hike. But as we know RICH's plantation sector consist of KGAL (Rubber), NAMU (Oil palm), apart from MASK (Tea) and became the largest in all three planation crops. Wage-hike/Seasonality & fluctuation of revenue (prices and harvest) are common in plantation companies throughout.

Re-calling the last TEA rally, companies highly exposed to tea (Bagawanthalawa, Maskeliya) were on the top (if you can recall Stock prices - MASK/BOPL were on the top too)., while Rubber heavy Kegalle, Agalawatte were not much performed at that time, one time rupper prices was as low as LKR 60-75/Kg (compare it with last year prices). Then RUBBER rally started and companies haveyly exposed to Rubber (Kegalle, Kotagala, Kelaniyvelly) came on top in the list. May be RICH want to expose little bit more to Oilpalm as well.
Therefore it is good to maintain product mix like what RICH maintains. Therefore RICH is in a far better possition than peer plantation holding companies.

Apart from plantation RICH is in cach-rich Distribution/Supermarket business which is in aggressive expantion with unique SuperCenter concept. If you go any, you may see lot of private label (aprico) products which gives higher margins. Banks also has impressed by its way http://www.ft.lk/2011/01/21/ndb-inv-bank-strikes-first-ever-credit-card-receivables-securitisation-deal/

Their plastic sector gain decent return, though rubber/tyre sector affect by increased rubber prices. If rubber prices are gradually decreses loss of revenue in KGAL will be compansated by this sector. Also RICH have prime real estate properties in HydePark and Nawinna.

RICH entered to Stockbrokeing and (group) already has 25% stake in Asian Allance Insurance Co (AAIC). If RICH need take the control of AAIC has to buy at least another 25% (on current price of 138.90, it will cost at least 1,301 million) Why RICH want 4B for this ?? If they want to gain controlling of AAIC, it won't be soo difficult to find about 1.5 B., as Dr.Y and ARPICO have maintained their own respect.

32Exciting RICH - Page 2 Empty Re: Exciting RICH on Sat Jul 02, 2011 9:01 pm

Aamiable


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Generally, in a diversified group time to time one or two subsidiaries can have issues .....that alone cannot determine every thing as long as overall prospects are satisfactory they continue to perform well. ....It is not possible to ignore all other positive aspects and discuss only a single issue. ..thereare so many good things..

Smile

33Exciting RICH - Page 2 Empty Re: Exciting RICH on Sat Jul 02, 2011 9:55 pm

Rajaraam


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Rather than PE and most other indicators, anticipated future prospects of diversified group has more value to assess its present share value.Question is various external factors too have significant impact on the future growth of such Companies. Inflation,GDP and per capita growth , unemployment ,income distribution etc.would be very much effevtive for the success of such ventures. However if we consider all these factors would be better in the coming years, all divesified groups will perform better porvided that they maintain a good management system.

34Exciting RICH - Page 2 Empty Re: Exciting RICH on Sat Jul 02, 2011 10:00 pm

Marketinvest

Marketinvest
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Dint he say how they going finance for all these. A future rights?

35Exciting RICH - Page 2 Empty Re: Exciting RICH on Sat Jul 02, 2011 11:43 pm

Chinwi

Chinwi
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
@nkalansu wrote:

Hi there Chinwi,

I am too interested in investing in RICH as a long term investment and like you investing in businesses rather than buying shares. Since you have attended the AGM I would like to know whether they have disclosed any information about expanding the retail segment ( Arpico Super Centers).

Please share your thoughts.

Thanks

Yes, He talk about expanding and value addition to the current places; Developing a new island wide distribution system.
Without telling about the competition, he explained that they are going to add many other services in those places. (see my original post)
I felt that is an strategy to face competition from Keels and Cargils, even now SuperCenters are Superior than others, serving high end customer base.

Today I saw their big Supercenter near Wattala, It is better than some malls in Dubai.


@marketinvest wrote:
Dint he say how they going finance for all these. A future rights?

No.
But, he mentioned the financial cost may will go up.


thanks

36Exciting RICH - Page 2 Empty Re: Exciting RICH on Sun Jul 03, 2011 7:15 am

Aamiable


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Medium term RICH seem to be attractive.

37Exciting RICH - Page 2 Empty Re: Exciting RICH on Sun Jul 03, 2011 8:13 pm

investor1984

investor1984
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@Quibit wrote:
@innam wrote:thank you for this very useful post AGM update
if what he disclosed is 100% truthful the statement "They are in the middle of acquiring an Insurance company", it would explain the sudden jump in ACAP and the staggering around of AAIC (RICH seems to own 25% of it already).
lets see how exactly this scenario turns out

Richard Pieris is in trouble after major wage rise in the Maskeliya plantation. Group is struggling to raise finance to fund working capital for plantation companies. It is very unlikely that Richard Pieris would be able to raise Rs 4bn to fund the acquisition of Asian Allinace. Only Time will tell us...


Well every Tom & Dick is issuing Warrants & rights these days, so i don't think it will be a hard task for a strong company like RICH to issue rights if its in great need of cash to acquire some other company or to expand its currents business.

38Exciting RICH - Page 2 Empty Re: Exciting RICH on Sun Jul 03, 2011 8:28 pm

mark

mark
Expert
Expert
the worst thing they did is SPLIT 1 to 15..... Evil or Very Mad
btw thanks very much chinwi,your knowledge and experience is a bless for our forum,anticipating to read your experiences further.. Very Happy

39Exciting RICH - Page 2 Empty Re: Exciting RICH on Sun Jul 03, 2011 8:47 pm

nkalansu


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@mark wrote:the worst thing they did is SPLIT 1 to 15..... Evil or Very Mad
btw thanks very much chinwi,your knowledge and experience is a bless for our forum,anticipating to read your experiences further.. Very Happy


Well i too think that number of shares in the market is too much. However there is an advantage that is since there are large number of shares manipulation is difficult with RICH.

Well i really can't understand why they split it 1 to 15. At the time of the split the share was not an illiquid share.

However i have a funny feeling. That is, to may knowledge they haven't done any equity raising in the CSE recently. So what happens if they go for say...... 10 to 1 consolidation and then say 4 for 1 or 5 for 1 rights?? They could generate some cash. Mind you there are rumors spreading regarding acquisition of AAIC... also they have already announced that they are going to expand ARPICO SUPER CENTERS to 35 within the next 2 years. So they need funds.

May be the split is a blessing................. Remember REEF?

40Exciting RICH - Page 2 Empty Re: Exciting RICH on Sun Jul 03, 2011 9:34 pm

Rstock


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
I will buy when it reaches Rs. 10

41Exciting RICH - Page 2 Empty Re: Exciting RICH on Sun Jul 03, 2011 10:20 pm

tubal


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Rolling on the floor laughing at the negative rep that someone has given me for RICH. I advocated getting out of RICH when the last quarter results came out. Give negative reps to your hearts content but it will not wipe out your loss :-)

And as for marketwatch, he forgot to mention what the positives are:
amiable wrote:Generally, in a diversified group time to time one or two subsidiaries can have issues .....that alone cannot determine every thing as long as overall prospects are satisfactory they continue to perform well. ....It is not possible to ignore all other positive aspects and discuss only a single issue. ..thereare so many good things..

He also forgot to mention why exactly RICH is attractive in the medium term. But then that's marketwatchs style. Positive reinforcement through cut and paste.

42Exciting RICH - Page 2 Empty Re: Exciting RICH on Sun Jul 03, 2011 11:20 pm

nkalansu


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@tubal wrote:Rolling on the floor laughing at the negative rep that someone has given me for RICH. I advocated getting out of RICH when the last quarter results came out. Give negative reps to your hearts content but it will not wipe out your loss :-)

And as for marketwatch, he forgot to mention what the positives are:
amiable wrote:Generally, in a diversified group time to time one or two subsidiaries can have issues .....that alone cannot determine every thing as long as overall prospects are satisfactory they continue to perform well. ....It is not possible to ignore all other positive aspects and discuss only a single issue. ..thereare so many good things..

He also forgot to mention why exactly RICH is attractive in the medium term. But then that's marketwatchs style. Positive reinforcement through cut and paste.

To : Tubal

Overall performance of RICH is much better than what has been happening in the past. So why are you giving negative comments on RICH and advising to get rid of RICH?. Please let us know why... anything that we don't know ??... that you know..?? Please share your thoughts.

Also please account that from 1st April 2011 tax rate applicable to Corporations is 28%. So RICH and other companies getting tax reduction of 7%. RICH's performance can be enhanced by that tax savings too. And I really don't know whether plantation companies are getting even reduced tax rate than 28%. If its the case RICh is benefited from that too.

43Exciting RICH - Page 2 Empty Re: Exciting RICH on Sun Jul 03, 2011 11:23 pm

gann

gann
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Going by the conversations it seems many are holding RICH. Hope you guys strike it RICH soon. my profile footer may be of some consolations till then Smile

44Exciting RICH - Page 2 Empty Re: Exciting RICH on Sun Jul 03, 2011 11:37 pm

Antonym

Antonym
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@gann wrote:Going by the conversations it seems many are holding RICH. Hope you guys strike it RICH soon Smile Read my profile footer for any consolations till then.
@gann: Buying this share quickly is the easiest way to get RICH quick.
I would imagine that it's exciting to be RICH. But Exiting from RICH is an entirely different matter! Wink

45Exciting RICH - Page 2 Empty Re: Exciting RICH on Mon Jul 04, 2011 6:23 am

tubal


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@nkalansu wrote:
@tubal wrote:Rolling on the floor laughing at the negative rep that someone has given me for RICH. I advocated getting out of RICH when the last quarter results came out. Give negative reps to your hearts content but it will not wipe out your loss :-)

And as for marketwatch, he forgot to mention what the positives are:
amiable wrote:Generally, in a diversified group time to time one or two subsidiaries can have issues .....that alone cannot determine every thing as long as overall prospects are satisfactory they continue to perform well. ....It is not possible to ignore all other positive aspects and discuss only a single issue. ..thereare so many good things..

He also forgot to mention why exactly RICH is attractive in the medium term. But then that's marketwatchs style. Positive reinforcement through cut and paste.

To : Tubal

Overall performance of RICH is much better than what has been happening in the past. So why are you giving negative comments on RICH and advising to get rid of RICH?. Please let us know why... anything that we don't know ??... that you know..?? Please share your thoughts.

Also please account that from 1st April 2011 tax rate applicable to Corporations is 28%. So RICH and other companies getting tax reduction of 7%. RICH's performance can be enhanced by that tax savings too. And I really don't know whether plantation companies are getting even reduced tax rate than 28%. If its the case RICh is benefited from that too.

Who is asking anyone to sell now? I said you should have sold this about a month ago. Now you have automatically become a long term investor. You guys expected RICH to produce miracles but it didn't. That means the high PE you guys have allocated to it was unjustified. Additionally, RICH shot up like that because EPF bought in heavily and their execution was simply horrible.

As for tax rate, why should anyone by RICH just because the corporate tax rate has been reduced? It applies to all the companies (that do not happen to enjoy a tax holiday)

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