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Sri Lanka Equity Forum » Stock Market Talk » LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000)

LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000)

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1LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) Empty LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) on Thu Feb 03, 2011 9:30 am

ashlee


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
My adviser told me that LOLC will move up to 250 in the medium run. I have no basis to believe whether it will..
Can someone give me an insight of the future of this stock??Is it really a gem?
Your comments are appreciated..



Last edited by Quibit on Tue Oct 29, 2019 9:56 am; edited 2 times in total (Reason for editing : format condensed)

2LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) Empty LOLC POTENTIAL on Thu Feb 03, 2011 1:39 pm

ONTHEMONEY


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Lanka Orix Leasing Company (LOLC) came in to the market via a joint venture between Orix Corporation Japan and International Finance Corporation 30 years ago.LOLC is a pioneer entity in Sri Lanka.

Orix Corporation becoming the parent to LOLC is a pioneer Single Largest Leasing Company in the world with its substantial presence in 27 countries worldwide and listed in Stock Exchanges of Tokyo and New York.

LOLC is committed to pursuit a management strategy that enables the group to contribute to the betterment to all stakeholders prioritizing the Shareholders.

LOLC has over 70 customer service touch points island wide.

LOLC EARNINGS IN LAST QUARTER(Revenue)

Rs Mn

Variable-------------As at 30.06.10 -------- As at 30.09.10

Financial Services -----1,494 Mn ------------ 3,626 Mn
Plantation ------------ 193 Mn ------------- 1,359 Mn
Trading -------------- 113 Mn ------------- 372 Mn
Leisure -------------- 7 Mn --------------- ( 114) Mn
Power & Energy ------ 12 Mn -------------- 8.535 Mn
Others -------------- (716) Mn ----------- (758)Mn
Insurance ----------- (0.8)Mn ------------ (4.049) Mn
Total ----------1,150 Mn ( 1.150 Bn) ---- 4,529 Mn ( Rs 4.529 Bn)

By looking at QoQ growth of LOLC it well evident the diversified company has extreme earnings from Financial Service, Plantation, Trading in particular. The Financial Services, Plantation and Trading sectors displaying QoQ growth rate of 142%, 604%, 229%.

During recent past we have observed a mega price hike in Plantation products which will have a highly positive contribution in coming quarters towards Plantation Revenue of LOLC .(Pussallawa Plantation and Gal Oya will contribute in large numbers to the Top line in coming Quarters)

Although the Leisure sector indicates a loss it will be streamlined with the recent developments in the Tourism industry. Yield will be generated in last 2-3 quarters in 2011.

Also we can expect an increase Revenue in Power & Energy sector as well due to the need and emphasis made by the Government on Hydro Power energy.

In LOLC the future Key sectors to watch – Plantation, Leisure, Power, and Financial Services

Sectors such as Trading, Insurance and others would perform above average considering the overall picture but the Key sectors mentioned above will outperform in coming quarters delivering superior results.

Share Value

Current Trading @ ---------- Rs 135 – Rs 143
Issued Quantity ------------ 475,200,000
PAT as at 30.06.10 –-------- Rs 3,854Bn (6 months ended)
EPS ------------------------ 3,854/475.2 --------- 8.11( 6 months)
Annualized ------------------ 8.11/2*4 -----------16.22
PE as at 27.01.11 ------------- 139/16.22 --------- 8.57
Projected price @ 12 Market PE --------- 16.22*12--------- Rs 194.64

Conclusion – LOLC has a high potential over breaking the above barrier since it is calculated based on last quarter earnings. We have the opinion it would have mega rally over next couple of weeks with its financial reports are out. It is a value gem that many have not concentrated well and we believe we should buy and sell securities with a reason. LOLC is a stock that is equal to GOLD in current market sentiments in SHORT, MEDIUM, LONG TERM.

3LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) Empty Re: LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) on Thu Feb 03, 2011 2:41 pm

optimistic

optimistic
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
ONTHEMONEY,
Is it likely that you calculated the PE wrong? Because in my broker's weekly report the trailing PE for LOLC was 18.2 . Given that, what ashlee's broker said could be true in the future.

18.2 (PE) * 16.22 (annualized EPS) = Rs. 295?

Correct me if I'm wrong. Thanks.

4LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) Empty Re: LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) on Thu Feb 03, 2011 3:30 pm

ashoka1966

ashoka1966
Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
When refer 30th September 2010 interim account statement, for the six month ending 30th September 2010 , LOLC EPS was 53.07.
In November 2010 due to sub division of shares 1:10 , EPS for the six months should be adjusted to 5.30.
Then the annualized EPS should be around 10.6.(It could be better…rather it should be)
Am I correct ????
Even if 10.6 multiplied by sector PE …. any way LOLC is currently undervalued. Isn’t it????
BTW really appreciate your above comments ONTHEMONEY.

5LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) Empty Re: LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) on Thu Feb 03, 2011 8:25 pm

bliss

bliss
Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
Banking & finance sector PER is 20.8 @ da moment...
so it shud b 20.8 *10.6 =220.48

6LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) Empty Re: LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) on Thu Feb 03, 2011 10:15 pm

smallville

smallville
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
I highly doubt this would reach 240+ soon, but after June anything can happen.. However its safe at current level i must say..
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=LOLC:SL

We also know the immense growth of this counter as well as their future prospects on diversification strategies.. a much valuable counter to watch now..

7LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) Empty Re: LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) on Fri Feb 04, 2011 7:41 pm

dhamm


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
last Qtr, LOLC profits has increased massively to 2998m compared to 855m in previous qtr. Anybody knows the reason why? is it a one off gain?

If its a one off, they wont be able to maintain 5+EPS for next half. any ideas pls.

8LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) Empty Re: LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) on Fri Feb 04, 2011 7:52 pm

econ

econ
Global Moderator
it had massive rally last year.. so lets wait till this quarter results..

9LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) Empty Re: LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) on Fri Feb 04, 2011 9:08 pm

$$$


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
It's under valued and is slated for stellar performance. They were on a buying spree last year and this year should see the same aggression.

10LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) Empty Re: LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) on Fri Feb 04, 2011 11:11 pm

BullionStock

BullionStock
Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
Can somebody remind me the adjusted price after the share split last year?

11LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) Empty LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) on Sun Feb 13, 2011 10:51 am

ashlee


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Dear experts,

I made my portfolio 100% LOLC thinking it would go up with the long waited banking rally.. LOLC is said to be one of the most undervalued share.. My adviser predicts that it would go up to 250 by June.

My concern is that I sold off CARS to buy LOLC.. However the latter seems to be stagnating around 138 while the former shot up..( Generally this happens to me Sad , so long as I have it, it never goes up..Once I sell it, it shoots up Evil or Very Mad )..

There have been posts on LOLC`s potential..Does anyone have anything new regarding LOLC..About its financials??Are they out??If they are, how good are they??
What is the potential of LOLC?

12LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) Empty Re: LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) on Sun Feb 13, 2011 10:59 am

ashlee


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Its not a statement..Just a question..Beg your pardon for forgetting the '?' Very Happy

13LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) Empty Re: LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) on Sun Feb 13, 2011 11:21 am

tubal


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
I think you ought to call the CEO of your stock brokers and tell him that, he has someone who reports to work while under the influence of alcohol.

14LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) Empty Re: LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) on Sun Feb 13, 2011 12:49 pm

smallville

smallville
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
@tubal wrote:I think you ought to call the CEO of your stock brokers and tell him that, he has someone who reports to work while under the influence of alcohol.

Tubal.. nice one.. Breaching of code of ethics in company Laughing

Well.. coming back to topic..
I hope u know the idea of putting all eggs in one basket, do u? Its highly risky.. and growth wise ur expecting one counter to do miracles on it.. Like we've expected PCH to do earlier.. Everything will have its run anc come down.. then settle on a base and slowly start its run..
So not diversifying ur portfolio means; ur losing the other potential gainers..in fact, ur omitting the thumb rule of investing..

Now LOLC would move.. being a growth counter we've witnessed their earlier profits.. and now they're into diversification means its highly potential counter for me..profits may rise further in coming qtrs.. But do not expect such a big move soon.. I'd say if BFI sector run starts, this would eventually move to 170s, there'll be a lot of demand after that. .when a counter loks promising everybody start buying it.. so wait till the time comes..

But if I were you.. I'd divide this and invest part of it in CINV, JKH as well..

15LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) Empty Re: LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) on Sun Feb 13, 2011 12:56 pm

RDS

RDS
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
No guarantee.
81% return in 4 months. i m not saying this will not happened.
Just think,
If so all money manager will bought same share before you.
100% investment in one share more risk.
U can miss several rallies also.

16LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) Empty Re: LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) on Sun Feb 13, 2011 1:45 pm

xmart

xmart
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
well, i don't think your move is wrong. to put all eggs in one basket you have to have good stomach. i will tell you something. my whole portfolio is consist of just 3 shares. SAMP, JINS and PAP. irrespective of time I can hold them until they reach my targets. meanwhile I'm doing fast tradings from credits to cover day to day expense. bounce

diversification is good. but if you identify potential shares, why don't you concentrate on those?
I think you will smile soon.

good luck

17LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) Empty Re: LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) on Sun Feb 13, 2011 2:14 pm

smallville

smallville
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
@xmart wrote:well, i don't think your move is wrong. to put all eggs in one basket you have to have good stomach. i will tell you something. my whole portfolio is consist of just 3 shares. SAMP, JINS and PAP. irrespective of time I can hold them until they reach my targets. meanwhile I'm doing fast tradings from credits to cover day to day expense. bounce

diversification is good. but if you identify potential shares, why don't you concentrate on those?
I think you will smile soon.

good luck

Agree on ur thoughts.. but the idea is to minimize the risk on investments.. all in one basket means its highly risky.. what if something goes wrong and market adversely react to it.. ur whole investment may go haywire instantly..
On the other hand, there can be 2-3 potential shares on move and if ur smart enuf, better u jump into all 3 and make a buck out of it rather than hoping the angle share u have will grow (even its going on rapidly, there are other rapid growers as well)..

Even i increased my stake in LOLC recently cuz i'm also bullish on this.. but 50%-60% is the best amt not 100%..

18LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) Empty confident on Sun Feb 13, 2011 4:14 pm

DMA


Stock Analytic
Stock Analytic
i agree with ur strategy. if u have analysed the company, management and specially the future growth care fully. u can go for 100%. The people who get tips from others should diversify their portfolio.

And also now market is any way at the peak. so by diversifing ur portfolio u cant avoid the market risk.
I also follow the same strategy with another stock on which i put some comments here.
when we talk about only one share some think we promote it. no ????
I analyse only one or two at a time. then go for another set.

But when i feel no VALUE GEMS in the market which i can come up i go for 4 or 5 GEMS. not VALUE GEMS.
if u feel ur broker or the analyst is a extraodinary person then it is ok for going for it. but u need to wait untill market realise the real value of LOLC.

You may know wt should happen but no body knows when it will happen........

analyse fully then go for 100% or at least 60%.
if no analysis go for 10% each.

u kw there was a time period where i was with 100% GREG. but i felt no risk since it cannot go down below 60 and i got the correct tip from a extraodinary person with proven results.

You should have ur own strategy and u should kw the risk tolerance. my risk tolerance and the confident on my analysis are very high.

thank you..........

19LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) Empty Re: 100% on Sun Feb 13, 2011 4:36 pm

Antonym

Antonym
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
There is no problem with putting all your eggs in one basket - but ensure that the basket is damn good.

I am a short-term trader. I have more than half of my portfolio value in 1 'safe' share (which I identified as best for me); that makes it easier to keep track of price movements and react to them.

Warnings:
1. This is a high-risk strategy and I would not recommend it to any newcomer.
2. Never 'get married' to a share. After it has served your purpose, dump it. Or if it does not meet your expectations, dump it and move on... There are many fish in the sea (or shares on the CSE).

20LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) Empty Re: LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) on Sun Feb 13, 2011 5:07 pm

Monster

Monster
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Antonym wrote:
2. Never 'get married' to a share. After it has served your purpose, dump it. Or if it does not meet your expectations, dump it and move on... There are many fish in the sea (or shares on the CSE).
I really like your comment. Laughing

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