COLO - second rally

will there be a second rally in COLO.....here I found a report done on COLO.....

http://colombostockwatch.com/2011/09/colonial-motors-plc-colo-interim-update/

There are lots of good other shares in the mkt. why we stuck with colo most of the time.

windi5 wrote:There are lots of good other shares in the mkt. why we stuck with colo most of the time.

It is an exceptional company as it is stated in the article.

"Company witnessed immense customer orders during FY11 and that led the order books to be full for the next six months. Therefore the improved earnings would be sustainable in going forward. Furthermore, we expect COLO would be able to attract substantial proportion of the remaining unexecuted permits and that would further strengthen the earnings of the company."

windi5 wrote:There are lots of good other shares in the mkt. why we stuck with colo most of the time.

Please share some few good stocks with this much growth potential.

accordin to the report COLO has massive earnings potential....look at the forward multipless......

FY12- 5.17X
FY13- 3.53X

I think this is undervalued than DIMO.....

COLO is a good fundamental share..saw some collecting today..

Then why did Dr.Senthivel disposed 1.1mn shares in aug 2011.

Hawk Eye wrote:Then why did Dr.Senthivel disposed 1.1mn shares in aug 2011.

Good question, coz Dr.senthilverl is one of the mkt gurus.

It matters whos collecting the shares. If some speculators collecting for short term purpose, then watch out. they are the people who promote so much

Dr.Senthivel was collecting for short term purposes. no need to follow him, and another hot stock with upward trend is UML.

Dr Ts qty was bought by the COLO's parent CFLB group...Normally parent further collecting its subsidiaries means that company has good future prospects...
Isnt that so..????

Read the article published by FT on 15th August
http://www.ft.lk/2011/08/15/controlling-shareholder-cflb-buys-12-more-of-colonial-motors-for-rs-319-m/

..The decision by CFLB to increase stake in Colonial could be because it wanted to further protect its interest lest it goes to an outside party..

there are other points to note in the article too about loss of Land Rover agency and rumours about KIA agency.

Hawk Eye wrote:Then why did Dr.Senthivel disposed 1.1mn shares in aug 2011.

Three Reasons:

1) He didn't know how good their results really were (only the owners knew at that time)
2) He needed cash for other investments
3) He didn't know who the buyer was (the deal was brokered)

Dr. T is a smart investor, but even the smartest investor takes wrong decisions at times, so don't follow other people blindly. In my eyes COLO is still a very good pick as I agree it will have a second run sooner or later.

COLO second run should start soon.

even I think.....here the report says..due to currrent earnings potential even the price can push up to Rs 579 levels...

"Based on an analysis of a historic 52 week price movement, we derived
price volatility of +/-62.0 on a mean of LKR289.24. Hence, the flux is
circa +/-21.4%. Furthermore, if it is assumed that the same upside
momentum is witnessed pushing the price to LKR579.23 (from a current
level of LKR477.00), the forward PE multiple would be 6.3X for FY12E.
The price of LKR530.00 is based on an upside growth of 21.4% derived
via the 52 weeks standard deviation of the market price and the price of
LKR530.00 is the highest traded price during FY11."

cse_investor wrote:

Hawk Eye wrote:Then why did Dr.Senthivel disposed 1.1mn shares in aug 2011.

Three Reasons:

1) He didn't know how good their results really were (only the owners knew at that time)
2) He needed cash for other investments
3) He didn't know who the buyer was (the deal was brokered)

Dr. T is a smart investor, but even the smartest investor takes wrong decisions at times, so don't follow other people blindly. In my eyes COLO is still a very good pick as I agree it will have a second run sooner or later.

Is this the only undervalued share in the market?
Is CSE trading on fundamentals these days?

Hawk Eye wrote:

cse_investor wrote:

Hawk Eye wrote:Then why did Dr.Senthivel disposed 1.1mn shares in aug 2011.

Three Reasons:

1) He didn't know how good their results really were (only the owners knew at that time)
2) He needed cash for other investments
3) He didn't know who the buyer was (the deal was brokered)

Dr. T is a smart investor, but even the smartest investor takes wrong decisions at times, so don't follow other people blindly. In my eyes COLO is still a very good pick as I agree it will have a second run sooner or later.

Is this the only undervalued share in the market?
Is CSE trading on fundamentals these days?

Of course not, and my post above only gave reasons as to why Dr. T sold his stake. COLO is subject to a play, the fundamentals and strong performance were the spark that caused the fire on this one.

The following are few points we need to understand regarding these research reports;

1) Broker firms necessarily don’t do researches just for the goodness for their customers, they do this cuz they need to convince ppl to buy some stocks which they think would increase their commission in short-med run first. Then as per the justified valuations given, the ppl who buy top needs to hold on this as a long term investment so they point out the future value too.. So now u can understand that their primary motive is to sell stocks to their clients and the same time not getting blamed.

2) They do give about a time frame of 01 year period at least otherwise stated as short term. So within this period any person with less knowledge on market can even guess that with the growing economy of SL, good companies with a fair working capital could grow as well.

3) The recommendations were far less in number when the downturn began and one broker recommended DIMO around 1500 and also others recommend DIMO (about 1-2 months back) below 1400 but the valuations were done for a period of 1 year from the research date. So regardless of whether u bought DIMO in 1400-1600 category, still their valuations of DIMO reaching 2000 is in tact.

4) Normally in these reports future financials are estimated using various projection accounting techniques but the future is not a foreseeable entity. I have not seen in any report the relevant method is described though some facts as to why they think the company would perform in future too could be stated.

However its a good idea to read these reports to get educated how broker firms come into conclusions of companies' future and to have a second opinion on your investment decision. But dont 100% rely on these and invest without doing your own research.

We know what happened to a good company like BFL with continues QoQ - YoY earnings growth.. Their earnings were disappointing in last couple of qtrs and ppl felt bad so share price started to fall with the bear market. Again here I'm not saying BFL wont go but we need to understand certain companies have seasonal earnings as well. i.e - poultry, plantations sectors.

smallville wrote:The following are few points we need to understand regarding these research reports;

1) Broker firms necessarily don’t do researches just for the goodness for their customers, they do this cuz they need to convince ppl to buy some stocks which they think would increase their commission in short-med run first. Then as per the justified valuations given, the ppl who buy top needs to hold on this as a long term investment so they point out the future value too.. So now u can understand that their primary motive is to sell stocks to their clients and the same time not getting blamed.

2) They do give about a time frame of 01 year period at least otherwise stated as short term. So within this period any person with less knowledge on market can even guess that with the growing economy of SL, good companies with a fair working capital could grow as well.

3) The recommendations were far less in number when the downturn began and one broker recommended DIMO around 1500 and also others recommend DIMO (about 1-2 months back) below 1400 but the valuations were done for a period of 1 year from the research date. So regardless of whether u bought DIMO in 1400-1600 category, still their valuations of DIMO reaching 2000 is in tact.

4) Normally in these reports future financials are estimated using various projection accounting techniques but the future is not a foreseeable entity. I have not seen in any report the relevant method is described though some facts as to why they think the company would perform in future too could be stated.

However its a good idea to read these reports to get educated how broker firms come into conclusions of companies' future and to have a second opinion on your investment decision. But dont 100% rely on these and invest without doing your own research.

We know what happened to a good company like BFL with continues QoQ - YoY earnings growth.. Their earnings were disappointing in last couple of qtrs and ppl felt bad so share price started to fall with the bear market. Again here I'm not saying BFL wont go but we need to understand certain companies have seasonal earnings as well. i.e - poultry, plantations sectors.

There are good research teams in our brokering houses, some are highly qualified, but the trend is that investment advisers dont recommend what researchers recommend , brokers only recommend what they collect and what are hot on a given day.. brokers are more speculative these days that some are more speculative than average retailers. So naturally customers ( ie u & me ) will more or less believe what broker says and will ignore the research reports , as we are dealing with brokers and we more or less trust broker rather than the unseen researcher. Sometimes the investment advisers dont know anything about what researchers recommend> we are dealing in market where no one give a damn about technicals or fundamentals , Only rumors and manipulation matters in this market , so best thing to do to WIN in this market is to get network with others, to be informed about the rumor befor it turn in to the news , get to know about the stock which is goin to be manipulated next rather than knowing it after it get manipulated , yes its highly unethical patter of trading , yet thats what we must do to survive in CSE . this is what i believe ....

windi5 wrote:

Hawk Eye wrote:Then why did Dr.Senthivel disposed 1.1mn shares in aug 2011.

Good question, coz Dr.senthilverl is one of the mkt gurus.

Sometimes we bother too much about the activities of HNWI. Yes they are the movers and shakers of the market , but that doesnt make them GOD in this market, yes most of the times the shares they enter turn out to be the HOT counter, still sometimes they enter in big way those counters get no special attention , so we should not blindly jump in to what ever they buy or we should not dump what ever they sell . For example Nimal Perea is gradually exiting from VONE... but does that move of Nimal Perera , does his move make VONE a bad share??? Hell no.... may be they are exiting bcoz they might be investing in gold , may be they need some money to contribute to political party,may be they need money for their Daughter;s wedding .... We dont know what they are up to ... So we should not follow them too much, but we definitely should not ignore them too. Not every time HNWi entry add value to a company nor does it reduce a value of company , remember they are sometime buying a stake which sometimes doesnt even get them a director seat, so that person doesnt make any difference to the COMPANY ... remember SHARE doesnt matter , its the COMPANY thats matter .. Remember we invest in the COMPANY

I think not mow, want to wait sometime

Hey.. investor1984 please let me knw some brokering houses, which posses good research teams...??

Some serious buying of COLO shares today, 278,300 shares crossed today at 480/= which one is smarter? the buyer or the seller?...this has always baffled me...does the buyer have any inside info that the market does not have ?or is the seller the smarter one who sees many other lucrative options, or is he simply booking profits,remember this share was trading for far less a price sometime ago.

Many in this Forum predicted a second COLO rally. but did not happen, yet. Some said it will go high up as 600.any comments ?

what are the chances of COLO moving up in the near future.