PLC prospectus out !!!!

http://www.cse.lk/270808/pdf/5_10_2011_Peoples_Pros.pdf

Not bad, my calculation puts their PE at slightly below 11

mono wrote:Not bad, my calculation puts their PE at slightly below 11

Yes, but I.m sure we'll be able to buy this share below the IPO price once this huge amount flooded the CSE

WildBear wrote:

mono wrote:Not bad, my calculation puts their PE at slightly below 11

Yes, but I.m sure we'll be able to buy this share below the IPO price once this huge amount flooded the CSE

Absolutely

NVAP & EPS are attractive.
Earnings per Share (Basic/ Diluted) 47.94
Net Assets Value per Ordinary Share 147.84
But share volume is high

ishnet wrote:NVAP & EPS are attractive.
Earnings per Share (Basic/ Diluted) 47.94
Net Assets Value per Ordinary Share 147.84
But share volume is high

Dude, I think you got something wrong.....EPS-around 2 and NAV around 6 (before IPO)

early wrote:

mono wrote:Not bad, my calculation puts their PE at slightly below 11

So EPS as per your calculation should be 18/11 = 1.64 (I havent seen the prospectus)

If we take the market PER as 15, then 1.64 * 15 = 24.60

So there is a possible upside of at least Rs. 6.60 for this share, which is quite good.

Number of shares as at 31.03.2011 is 50,000,000

Then they go ahead with a new issue of shares on 30.06.2011 with issue of 28,000,000 new shares at Rs. 146/= per share. Purchaser is Peoples Bank.

So total number of shares is 78,000,000

Then Peoples Bank give 3,640,000 of these shares to employees of People's Leasing. (GIVEN AWAY BY PEOPLE'S BANK FOR FREE)

Then they sub divide it 1 to 15.

So Shares owned by PB = 365.40 Million
Shares owned by Employees of Peoples Leasing = 54.60 Million (FREE ZERO CONSIDERATION SHARES IN THE MARKET)

They can't sell it till 30.06.2012. However by early December this thing will get listed. So only 6 months are there and they will start selling...................................@@@@@%%%&&&&???????



As at 30.06.2011 total equity -------------------> 10,057 Million (Group)
New funds from IPO --------------------------> 7,020 Million
Total -------------------------------------------> 17,077 Million

Total number of shares in issue -------------------> 1,560 Million

Net assets per share ---------------------------> 17,070 / 1,560 = Rs. 10.94 (Immediately after IPO)

Looks like another SOFTLOGIC to me. Do you want to purchase this?

Thank u nkalansu, You have given very useful information on Peoples Leasing. Based on the same information one can find that they have isssued some shares to the parent Peoples Bank 0n 30th june 2011 at 146/-. h means even after split(1 in to 15) the cost for Peoples Bank for a share is Rs. 14.60. So issue price of 18/- has no issue then.
May be this is a good share .Anyway this is the No. one leasing companyin the country.

Rajaraam wrote:Thank u nkalansu, You have given very useful information on Peoples Leasing. Based on the same information one can find that they have isssued some shares to the parent Peoples Bank 0n 30th june 2011 at 146/-. h means even after split(1 in to 15) the cost for Peoples Bank for a share is Rs. 14.60. So issue price of 18/- has no issue then.
May be this is a good share .Anyway this is the No. one leasing companyin the country.

Dear Rajaraam,

Small correction 146/15 is Rs. 9.73. Anyway People's Bank can be trusted that they will not sell. They might hold it for a long term so Rs. 9.73 is not an issue. The problem is FREE HOLDERS....... they will start selling.

Please analyse more before purchase this thing.

As far as EPS is concern considering the 2011 - Q1 report (Pg 163 of 245), last quater PLC has made profit of Rs.1634 millions. (EPS = 1.44 ). So I think share price is not high as other IPOs we had recently.
Need to study the prospectus more.

WildBear wrote:

ishnet wrote:NVAP & EPS are attractive.
Earnings per Share (Basic/ Diluted) 47.94
Net Assets Value per Ordinary Share 147.84
But share volume is high

Dude, I think you got something wrong.....EPS-around 2 and NAV around 6 (before IPO)

WildBear,yes,I got some wrong point in prospect(on page 138 no 14)
Thank for your correction.

nkalansu wrote:

early wrote:

mono wrote:Not bad, my calculation puts their PE at slightly below 11

So EPS as per your calculation should be 18/11 = 1.64 (I havent seen the prospectus)

If we take the market PER as 15, then 1.64 * 15 = 24.60

So there is a possible upside of at least Rs. 6.60 for this share, which is quite good.

Number of shares as at 31.03.2011 is 50,000,000

Then they go ahead with a new issue of shares on 30.06.2011 with issue of 28,000,000 new shares at Rs. 146/= per share. Purchaser is Peoples Bank.

So total number of shares is 78,000,000

Then Peoples Bank give 3,640,000 of these shares to employees of People's Leasing. (GIVEN AWAY BY PEOPLE'S BANK FOR FREE)

Then they sub divide it 1 to 15.

So Shares owned by PB = 365.40 Million
Shares owned by Employees of Peoples Leasing = 54.60 Million (FREE ZERO CONSIDERATION SHARES IN THE MARKET)

They can't sell it till 30.06.2012. However by early December this thing will get listed. So only 6 months are there and they will start selling...................................@@@@@%%%&&&&???????



As at 30.06.2011 total equity -------------------> 10,057 Million (Group)
New funds from IPO --------------------------> 7,020 Million
Total -------------------------------------------> 17,077 Million

Total number of shares in issue -------------------> 1,560 Million

Net assets per share ---------------------------> 17,070 / 1,560 = Rs. 10.94 (Immediately after IPO)

Looks like another SOFTLOGIC to me. Do you want to purchase this?

Earnings based valuation
----------------------------

Performance for 3 months up to 30.06.2011

Profit attributable to equity holders----------------------------> Rs. 1,727.42 Million (Group)
Number of shares in issue -------------------------------------> 1,560 Million

EPS ---------------------------------------------------------> 1,727.42/1,560 = Rs. 1.10 per share

So if we assume this rate of profit generation will continue for the next 3 quarters as well. So

EPS for the full year -------------------------------> 1.10 *4 = 4.40

MPS = PER * EPS

Say a proxy PE of 10 if we assume (more accurate if you can take the sector PE for finance sector)

Price = 4.40 * 10 = Rs. 44

I don't know it's up to you..................................

nkalansu wrote:

nkalansu wrote:

early wrote:

mono wrote:Not bad, my calculation puts their PE at slightly below 11

So EPS as per your calculation should be 18/11 = 1.64 (I havent seen the prospectus)

If we take the market PER as 15, then 1.64 * 15 = 24.60

So there is a possible upside of at least Rs. 6.60 for this share, which is quite good.

Number of shares as at 31.03.2011 is 50,000,000

Then they go ahead with a new issue of shares on 30.06.2011 with issue of 28,000,000 new shares at Rs. 146/= per share. Purchaser is Peoples Bank.

So total number of shares is 78,000,000

Then Peoples Bank give 3,640,000 of these shares to employees of People's Leasing. (GIVEN AWAY BY PEOPLE'S BANK FOR FREE)

Then they sub divide it 1 to 15.

So Shares owned by PB = 365.40 Million
Shares owned by Employees of Peoples Leasing = 54.60 Million (FREE ZERO CONSIDERATION SHARES IN THE MARKET)

They can't sell it till 30.06.2012. However by early December this thing will get listed. So only 6 months are there and they will start selling...................................@@@@@%%%&&&&???????



As at 30.06.2011 total equity -------------------> 10,057 Million (Group)
New funds from IPO --------------------------> 7,020 Million
Total -------------------------------------------> 17,077 Million

Total number of shares in issue -------------------> 1,560 Million

Net assets per share ---------------------------> 17,070 / 1,560 = Rs. 10.94 (Immediately after IPO)

Looks like another SOFTLOGIC to me. Do you want to purchase this?

Earnings based valuation
----------------------------

Performance for 3 months up to 30.06.2011

Profit attributable to equity holders----------------------------> Rs. 1,727.42 Million (Group)
Number of shares in issue -------------------------------------> 1,560 Million

EPS ---------------------------------------------------------> 1,727.42/1,560 = Rs. 1.10 per share

So if we assume this rate of profit generation will continue for the next 3 quarters as well. So

EPS for the full year -------------------------------> 1.10 *4 = 4.40

MPS = PER * EPS

Say a proxy PE of 10 if we assume (more accurate if you can take the sector PE for finance sector)

Price = 4.40 * 10 = Rs. 44

I don't know it's up to you..................................

There rate of growth is also unbelievable.
_____________________
Knowledge Is Power

Guys, do not sell your valuable shares and buy this. We have learned enough lessons again and again.

This is a huge issue (7BN). This is roughly 4 days turnover of CSE.
There will be definitely huge selling pressure on the first day. You will certainly be able to buy this much cheaper due to the selling pressure. Therefore, don't rush. I will not subscribe for this.

This is my personal opinion only and not a recommendation.

Dear Rajaraam,

Small correction 146/15 is Rs. 9.73. Anyway People's Bank can be trusted that they will not sell. They might hold it for a long term so Rs. 9.73 is not an issue. The problem is FREE HOLDERS....... they will start selling.

Please analyse more before purchase this thing. .
nkalansu

Thank you nkalansu for correction. Sorry for my mistake. Anyway it is interesting to discuss on this IPO.Hovever it is not clear to me How much would be the annual EPS based on present performance.

for 20011 the total lib = 47B ..Is this too much considering the profits for 2011 is only 2.6 B?

Rajaraam wrote: Anyway People's Bank can be trusted that they will not sell.

hmmmm!
need to study more

guys what do ul think about this.. according to my knowledge the financials look ok .. but the number of shares.. isn't it too many .. Need feedback

Rs. 1000,000 bet this is gonna be oversubscribed my many times..

nkalansu wrote:

Performance for 3 months up to 30.06.2011

Profit attributable to equity holders----------------------------> Rs. 1,727.42 Million (Group)

PLC's June 2011 net profit has been lifted by a one-off reversal of general loan loss provisions - see page 92, 93 (section 11.4) of prospectus.

At a Company level, net of tax, the effect of the non-recurring reversal is Rs 1,063 mn. This is a non cash benefit too.

So the recurring June 2011 profit of PLC (company) is Rs615 mn, against the reported Rs1,678 mn (company) and Rs1,727 mn at group level.

Also recent boom in leasing industry was partly due to vehicle tax reduction. With the increase in tax again, the activity level of leasing industry may go down to normal level.

At the moment market is struggling get funds to finance all these rights, PP and warrant conversions..
foreigners exiting... Brokers are restricted in giving credit.. This IPO will suck another 7 B from market...

And there can be high selling pressure too (due to above mention reasons)

So there is chance get this below IPO price at secondary market

sperera wrote:Rs. 1000,000 bet this is gonna be oversubscribed my many times..

People's bank and the government want this IPO to be a success, So that, Government related funds, EPF,ETF,SLIC will largely apply to this