Semb 15 expert viwe pl...

kelumhewage · 1 Semb 15 expert viwe pl... Tue Nov 01, 2011 11:05 am

kelumhewage

Manager - Equity Analytics

Posts : 152
Equity Stars : 4957
Reputation : 3
Join date : 2011-08-12

i have 70000 at 1.40 level shall i sell it or what ........ Crying or Very sad

Leo · 2 Re: Semb 15 expert viwe pl... Tue Nov 01, 2011 11:19 am

Leo

Manager - Equity Analytics

Posts : 296
Equity Stars : 5006
Reputation : 15
Join date : 2011-09-22

I am not an expert , but could be true

SEMB W15 is 0.90 cents now
SEMB N is 2.10

Scenario 1
If warrants are exercised your cost would be 1.40+1.0 = 2.40
Market price without considering dilution assumed at 2.10 when warrants exercised
Your loss would be 2.40-2.10 = 0.30 cents per share (after dilution of value, the loss could me more)
On the other hand you have to take the warrants , if not you will be totally loosing your investment

Scenario 2
If sold now the loss would be 1.40-0.9 = 0.50 Per share
No risk of dilution of value.
And you dont have to have extra money to purchase the warrants

My comment is theoretical. Theoretically if warrants of SEMB is exercised fully , the share price after dilution would be
((826,486,514*2.10) + (381,455,314*1))/(826,486,514+381,455,314)
Rs 1.75 (Approxi = Rs1.80)
So Scenario 1 must add 0.30 extra for loss (2.10-1.80)
So loss with dilution =0.30+0.30 = Rs 0.60

sriranga · 3 Re: Semb 15 expert viwe pl... Tue Nov 01, 2011 11:32 am

sriranga

Co-Admin

Posts : 6822
Equity Stars : 23034
Reputation : 2855
Join date : 2011-02-01
Location : London

Please read this post posted by cse.profit.
http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t9694-semb-w-0015-unseen-analysis?highlight=semb

SL.Market · 4 Re: Semb 15 expert viwe pl... Tue Nov 01, 2011 12:22 pm

SL.Market

Vice President - Equity Analytics

Posts : 1340
Equity Stars : 6758
Reputation : 146
Join date : 2011-03-15
Location : Colombo

W15 is so attractive to me now... I m collecting this at 1.20......

lokka1 · 5 Semb W15 Tue Nov 01, 2011 12:24 pm

lokka1

Manager - Equity Analytics

Posts : 132
Equity Stars : 5086
Reputation : 8
Join date : 2011-02-16

kelumhewage wrote:i have 70000 at 1.40 level shall i sell it or what ........

You have another option, which is to convert the warrants by paying the 1.00 to convert and at the same time ask for additional shares at 1.00. In your case if you bought additional 70000 shares by paying 70000/- your cost will be 238000 for 140000 (cost per share=1.70). SEMB.N0000 shares trading at even 1.80 after the conversion will give you a 0.10 profit on each share. You may even gain some more if you have the power to hold on. I do not think many people will convert and therefore shares will be available. This is what I am going to do as I have the same number of warrants as yours but at a lower cost. Hope this helps.
Lokka1

hariesha · 6 Re: Semb 15 expert viwe pl... Tue Nov 01, 2011 12:26 pm

hariesha

Vice President - Equity Analytics

Posts : 1058
Equity Stars : 7285
Reputation : 34
Join date : 2011-03-14

If you can hold the warrant and pay for the conversion, don't worry. We have seen Dr.S the major shareholder collecting the w15 at 1.3 levels. Of course his actual cost is much less as he received some warrants during the rights issue for free. But chances are they will rectify the price at some point. I can’t be sure it's before or after conversion. But they will do as they want it to be in a fair value as they have obtained margin facilities. And SEMB.N and SEMB.X will be the lowest valued share/instrument in the market after December. So in a rally there will be lot of participants and the share will easily move.

Normally when conversion date is approaching the price of the respective instrument is coming down as those people who can't pay for the conversion are disposing the instruments.
All depends on the objective of the major holders. If they want retailers to subscribe for the conversion they will keep the prices high. If they want to grab the retailer’s warrants they will keep the prices low. But if you can hold and pay for the conversion, I don't think you will lose.

Leo · 7 Re: Semb 15 expert viwe pl... Tue Nov 01, 2011 12:27 pm

Leo

Manager - Equity Analytics

Posts : 296
Equity Stars : 5006
Reputation : 15
Join date : 2011-09-22

lokka1 wrote:

kelumhewage wrote:i have 70000 at 1.40 level shall i sell it or what ........

You have another option, which is to convert the warrants by paying the 1.00 to convert and at the same time ask for additional shares at 1.00. In your case if you bought additional 70000 shares by paying 70000/- your cost will be 238000 for 140000 (cost per share=1.70). SEMB.N0000 shares trading at even 1.80 after the conversion will give you a 0.10 profit on each share. You may even gain some more if you have the power to hold on. I do not think many people will convert and therefore shares will be available. This is what I am going to do as I have the same number of warrants as yours but at a lower cost. Hope this helps.
Lokka1

A very good option pal