Market situation?

I usually did a long post to commemorate every 1000 posts as below


but this time at 4000 posts I decided against it as I feel it is redundant.
http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t21103-on-the-occasion-of-my-3000th-post
http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t3932-message-to-new-comers-on-the-occasion-of-my-celebrating-4-months-1000-posts-at-the-forum?highlight=on the occasion of my
http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t13740-on-the-occasion-of-my-2000th-post?highlight=on the occasion

But, here is something to think about.

Market ran from 4700+ 6000, Now hovering around 5500. With usually lull december coming there is a possibility shares/index can drop further bit but with low volume.

1) Can we expect another short term run of whole CSE or individual shares before december?
2) Some shares are now only about 10-20% from their lows in June .What are they? Will they drop lowers than lowest so far?
3) What are the strong Sept quarter earning companies trading around 10-15% up from lowest share price?
4) 1-2applies for short term. Long term players, do you see very good collecting opportunities now on 3?

Please share your opinions?

To start off,
2) TESS , PAP, DFCC , COMB
3) CIND, DFCC,CERA group

To add further to point 1), on technicals , market is again getting closer to oversold territory now.

The Budget run went 5-6 days ( green) but by only a small insignificant margin for many shares. Now these shares are dropping faster than before they went up. Even some of the stronger earning ones!

nearly 200 views but no comments. Hmm, maybe I should have not asked those questions involving thought/analysis ?

RED WHOLE WEEK.5300.

1. Some selected counters will move up.
2. Still there are enough room for some craps to go low.

Silence is better than being tired by posting thoughts comments. No any idea about the present fluctuation style, no any scientific explanation can be given. So, I have no proper reasons or facts to publish anything and perhaps, it would be a misleading of members.

This is like the survival of the earth in the universe. We can explain the surface of that scientific procedure, but no one knows the internal part. Isn't it similar to our market my friends? We only see its outer view, but no idea about the real process going on internally.

TA work correctly on natural market behavior. They are useless now. There is no meaning of doing TAs now unless someone have unlimited free time.

No stable confidence about the market cycle. Unnatural, abnormal changes have broken our minds. We are so pessimistic now.

However, I would like to point out three important facts.
1.Don't buy shares on weak companies. Their prices go up and down from hell to heaven.
2.Don't do any trade without a sure of the return. Everything change unexpectedly.
3.Don't tell your friends to enter the market who are new. They will def. get stuck.

I really appreciate the effort of our admin slstock, to keep the forum active and useful. Hope, other members who can visit here frequently will supply their contribution.
I'm very sorry to tell, I have no even a minute to waste with this lot of works and exams.

Roboticfx wrote:

There is no meaning of doing TAs now unless someone have unlimited free time.

With above, I agree..

In my understanding this is because of the lack of liquidity. High rate of interest has driven away most of local new cash flows. Whereas most of international players are able to leverage next to zero, typically 2-5%. That is the reason why we see lot of foreign investment inflows in contrast to local flight. Capital gain above cost of capital would make them profitable, whereas local investors B/E stands at 3-4 times that of foreign investors.

As local investors we should see the complete gamut of investments (stocks, debt, Gold, Real estate etc...) as the portfolio not just stock investments and re-balance portfolio.

People are having a tough time in SL, As a businessman in Pettah i feel the drop in business a lot. Added to this, the market seems skydiving to the bottom. All what we can do is wait.

Roboticfx, your studies come first at your age. So we understand if you spend more time there.


Don;t feel so depressed about market if your vision is long term. Short term can be depressing when interest is not there and you look at daily.. Atleast market has moved from June prices. Remember when the true bull starts if you hold strong undervalued shares it will reward you handsomely. Patience is a virtue at time and investment can take time to realise. Buying overvalued at the top is something we should avoid to cut down holding periods. Like the depressing period now where everyone has negative feeling, when the true bull starts everybody will want a piece of CSE. Did you see the small party and 2 billion daily turnovers from 5000-6000. When the bull starts more people will come in and buy at exhorbitant prices at the top overvaluing shares and the cycle will continue.

Above is not for short term people.

Roboticfx wrote:Silence is better than being tired by posting thoughts comments. No any idea about the present fluctuation style, no any scientific explanation can be given. So, I have no proper reasons or facts to publish anything and perhaps, it would be a misleading of members.

This is like the survival of the earth in the universe. We can explain the surface of that scientific procedure, but no one knows the internal part. Isn't it similar to our market my friends? We only see its outer view, but no idea about the real process going on internally.

TA work correctly on natural market behavior. They are useless now. There is no meaning of doing TAs now unless someone have unlimited free time.

No stable confidence about the market cycle. Unnatural, abnormal changes have broken our minds. We are so pessimistic now.

However, I would like to point out three important facts.
1.Don't buy shares on weak companies. Their prices go up and down from hell to heaven.
2.Don't do any trade without a sure of the return. Everything change unexpectedly.
3.Don't tell your friends to enter the market who are new. They will def. get stuck.

I really appreciate the effort of our admin slstock, to keep the forum active and useful. Hope, other members who can visit here frequently will supply their contribution.
I'm very sorry to tell, I have no even a minute to waste with this lot of works and exams.

I see some "45 year old solid companies" crashing to lowest prices I seen in 2 years today. Selling pressure is higher but volumes still low ( not many selling in large quantities) . But at this rate some company prices can crash lower than June value even though the index is 800 point higher.

Companies which reported good september earnings also been sold low (in lower volumes) due to the negativity. Some gold mines for future are gradually uncovering.

If this continues a few more days overall market will be over sold . We are near the threshold again. Some individual shares are below over sold. A small run atleast is needed before the December period. So let hope for the best short term.

Long term, no change in my optimism for selected companies ( which performed well during good times and bad times showing resilience)

slstock wrote:I see some "45 year old solid companies" crashing to lowest prices I seen in 2 years today. Selling pressure is higher but volumes still low ( not many selling in large quantities) . But at this rate some company prices can crash lower than June value even though the index is 800 point higher.

Companies which reported good september earnings also been sold low (in lower volumes) due to the negativity. Some gold mines for future are gradually uncovering.

If this continues a few more days overall market will be over sold . We are near the threshold again. Some individual shares are below over sold. A small run atleast is needed before the December period. So let hope for the best short term.

Long term, no change in my optimism for selected companies ( which performed well during good times and bad times showing resilience)

Well said SLS...

Really some counters touching the price levels we want and waited... the surprise thing is Index still the higher levels...

Short term i do fancy a company boasts they are promoting ice tea overall the world. In real world i dont know what they actually do.

UKboy wrote:Short term i do fancy a company boasts they are promoting ice tea overall the world. In real world i dont know what they actually do.

In the real world (atleast what I have seen so far) am yet to come across their products ;-)

no fundamentals in this market... few hand full of people brings it up and takes it down at will.......

anjelo wrote:no fundamentals in this market... few hand full of people brings it up and takes it down at will.......

Yes, not at this time in market.

5375 will it be magical for a trend change.....technically yes it can...

Yes I remember you mentioning a figure around 5400 when a few of us were talking about the overbought market in 5900-6000 and then it dropped down to 5800s. But looking at individual prices of some stocks, some are getting to be bargain again with the improving drops.


Btw BFL : dropped a lot as some people seems to have "expected" the big drop in earnings. The big selling/collection around Rs 185 should be remembered also. Dec is their strongest quarter and also the 10% chicken price increase with tax cuts should help them hopefully.

traderathome wrote:5375 will it be magical for a trend change.....technically yes it can...

BFL my cost is 175 i was a bit late and very greedy....the support is around 130-120 for a rebound...but todays drop can even take us to 100 in coming days (keeping in view the ASI pull back completion around 5375) because of the huge fall. my exit would be below 100Rs

traderathome wrote:BFL my cost is 175 i was a bit late and very greedy....the support is around 130-120 for a rebound...but todays drop can even take us to 100 in coming days (keeping in view the ASI pull back completion around 5475) because of the huge fall. my exit would be below 100Rs

BFL lowest so far this year was around Rs 109. If it goes there wonder what price TAFL and GRAN would be at Rs 30-35?

Talk about extreme volatility .

sorry for the typo it should be 5375 not 5475asi

Month of December going to be overall better.....not technical....but a gut feeling

traderathome wrote:Month of December going to be overall better.....not technical....but a gut feeling

I hope so. History says fun can ( notice can not will) start sometime in 3 or 4 weeks in Dec. But who knows. So until the next run lets hang on.

slstock wrote:

traderathome wrote:Month of December going to be overall better.....not technical....but a gut feeling

I hope so. History says fun can ( notice can not will) start sometime in 3 or 4 weeks in Dec. But who knows. So until the next run lets hang on.

Overall better to those have cash in hand.

Redda do you got some green to lend i mean monaru (kola pata) if possible a bundle of 1000s would do awful lot of good to me these days