ASI present trend

nrod · 1 ASI present trend Thu Jan 09, 2014 6:04 am

nrod

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2014-01-09 05:53:33

As I mentioned previously the present trend commenced on the 28th Nov'13, and we have now successfully broken out of 6000 points, which is gonna be the short term support. Based on the Fibonacci extensions between 28th Nov'13 to the 3rd Jan'14(the day we saw the ASI testing the 6000 resistance), the next resistance is at 6080 points which is not far off, and given the present momentum, we could see it's breached today the 9th Jan'14. But the next resistance will be 6176 which must be broken. If we fail then the support at 6000 and a resistance of 6100 will be tested, before a move up. The worst case will be a break down of the 6000 points and heading to 5880 to 5900 support. As of now, the present trend has yielded 329.61 points or 5.74% in 27 days. In the short term I will strickly follow my stops which is at 5880 for the ASI. But for the long term investments I have, my decision will be based on the numbers, and the prospects for those counters, and in the worst case I will sell off completely ONLY if the price of the stock OR the ASI COMES DOWN AND CLOSE BELOW the low of the present trend, i.e. 5735.68.

ASI present trend Proxy?url=http%3A%2F%2F1.bp.blogspot.com%2F-4pbnJWXxn1I%2FUs0avyDEY0I%2FAAAAAAAAAOk%2FaXddcMwtPR4%2Fs1600%2Fasipresenttrend

ASI present trend Proxy?url=http%3A%2F%2F1.bp.blogspot.com%2F-4pbnJWXxn1I%2FUs0avyDEY0I%2FAAAAAAAAAOk%2FaXddcMwtPR4%2Fs1600%2Fasipresenttrend

smallville · 2 Re: ASI present trend Thu Jan 09, 2014 8:10 am

smallville

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Good one.. Thanks Wink

It's been months I stopped analysin ASI..

Let me put this in a clear way why..

ASI is just an index, so it can give a hint on the direction of the market. Where it can halt, where the demand can deminish, where buyers can com in, whether the bulls wanna take it to the next level, etc... So all these are what if basis... Depends on support and resistance.
However, imo, what matters most is we identify future winners.. There are few with short-long term gains.. Even speculatives can give us a good capital gain hence we have to allocate 10-40% (as per one's risk bearing strategy) for those as well. After all, traders allocate 90-100% for day/swing trading Wink

But I, on the other hand, allocate 20-60% (these days) for short term. So cannot forget the pocket money gain on these.

Then med-long term gains are golden when u dont wanna look at the monitor each days finding out positions to enter. U find a good share, wait it to fall to a certain level, enter slowly and avg up or down and stop when u collect the required amt. Same time, u find the other good shares and position ur self at the same time or when the right time comes. Then you can check your gains/losses weekly. The shares you bought can go down more so u need to enter slowly and accumulate slowly at various places.

I've always been with TJL, PLC for long term gains as their business models are somewhat good. However, in a time where rates are low, ppl will not consider much saving.. Better to start investing.

I'm a bit tired and lazy these days with the work load I have, so dont mind me asking this..
Suppose if market runs as a bull or stays sideways, what r the best shares u have in mind for short-med term gain?

I'm talking of a 10-30% gain within 3-8 months time..

nrod · 3 Re: ASI present trend Thu Jan 09, 2014 9:03 am

nrod

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Thanks smallville, yes it is so true that you must have a strong and consistent strategy when you trade/invest. small profits may be even as little as 5% withing few days adds to make a great gain in the end.

As a quick answer to your last question, regards the stocks. At the moment I'm focusing on the sectors that will benefit from the interest fall, which happened from last year, global recovery, local business env. etc. I think main ones will be the manufacturing, F&B, trading, motors. Apart from these I want to see how the plantation sector is gonna perform as this sector had under performed for the last 2 years or more. Also the top stocks in the SL20 which lagged in the last few years but had been stalwarts historically, one is hayleys. Let's see what we can fish out of the ocean. Cheers. Smile

smallville · 4 Re: ASI present trend Thu Jan 09, 2014 9:25 am

smallville

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I think ur somewhere there cheers

Just analyse the companies and let us know so that we all can participate and have a good discussion..

kalum · 5 Re: ASI present trend Thu Jan 09, 2014 11:39 am

kalum

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Thanks nrod for this analysis and small for following up and bring more details. i think i'm too week in technical stuff and predictions, but these information are vital for us always. Keep it Up!

D.G.Dayaratne · 6 Re: ASI present trend Thu Jan 09, 2014 1:55 pm

D.G.Dayaratne

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It appears that technical analysis can be applied to SL stock market again after 2009

I request authorities to allow to continue this situation in SL stock market

Pl understand your role

Pl allow public funds to make their own decision according to general guide lines

Most dangerous thing in stock market is govt manipulation

If you allow market forces to work technical analysis will be successful

precondition for technical analysis is large number of buyers and sellers who take independent decisions with profit motive

Last edited by D.G.Dayaratne on Fri Jan 10, 2014 9:20 am; edited 2 times in total (Reason for editing : typing error)