Is History repeating?

Last year It was GREG, DPL, CLPL and BLUE. now WAPO, ALUF, LALU, SINI, GOOD, INDO, ASHO.
I wonder how people can put their hard earned money into shares which represent bad cash-flows, Loss accumulating and less growth companies. I bet all these people don't know about general market valuations either. I'm worrying, because I have to see lot of finger burners coming month.

Even in last year, second half was dominated by SAMP, BFL, SPEN, JKH, SEYB, NTB, RICH, DIST, LCEY, GRAN. so, I dare say, second half would be even better for us...

so, Don't run after Illiquid shits, but focus on your picks when they ignore it. sell it when they chase it.

good luck all.

xmart wrote:Last year It was GREG, DPL, CLPL and BLUE. now WAPO, ALUF, LALU, SINI, GOOD, INDO, ASHO.
I wonder how people can put their hard earned money into shares which represent bad cash-flows, Loss accumulating and less growth companies. I bet all these people don't know about general market valuations either. I'm worrying, because I have to see lot of finger burners coming month.

Even in last year, second half was dominated by SAMP, BFL, SPEN, JKH, SEYB, NTB, RICH, DIST, LCEY, GRAN. so, I dare say, second half would be even better for us...

so, Don't run after Illiquid shits, but focus on your picks when they ignore it. sell it when they chase it.

good luck all.

Good advice Xmart. Sadly there are still more people willing to gamble. Not Invest. Few will win the illuid game but lot can loose their life savings.

xmart wrote:Last year It was GREG, DPL, CLPL and BLUE. now WAPO, ALUF, LALU, SINI, GOOD, INDO, ASHO.
I wonder how people can put their hard earned money into shares which represent bad cash-flows, Loss accumulating and less growth companies. I bet all these people don't know about general market valuations either. I'm worrying, because I have to see lot of finger burners coming month.

Even in last year, second half was dominated by SAMP, BFL, SPEN, JKH, SEYB, NTB, RICH, DIST, LCEY, GRAN. so, I dare say, second half would be even better for us...

so, Don't run after Illiquid shits, but focus on your picks when they ignore it. sell it when they chase it.

good luck all.

Sorry but I don't share your views completely but I do appreciate and hope your optimism is correct. ASHO is one of the strongest performing companies, very transparent, and very safe. It is fair to say that the recent ASHO share price run has made it unattractive for buyers. Some stupid rumor spread by interested parties about a share split.

The illiquid companies are misrepresenting the market however and I also share the hope like many others here, that there will be an index or some sort of segregation/insulation from the rest of the market by the SEC.

There is no indication that stocks will perform similarly to the second half of last year. I would not trade on that instinct but I hope you are right!

slstock wrote:

xmart wrote:Last year It was GREG, DPL, CLPL and BLUE. now WAPO, ALUF, LALU, SINI, GOOD, INDO, ASHO.
I wonder how people can put their hard earned money into shares which represent bad cash-flows, Loss accumulating and less growth companies. I bet all these people don't know about general market valuations either. I'm worrying, because I have to see lot of finger burners coming month.

Even in last year, second half was dominated by SAMP, BFL, SPEN, JKH, SEYB, NTB, RICH, DIST, LCEY, GRAN. so, I dare say, second half would be even better for us...

so, Don't run after Illiquid shits, but focus on your picks when they ignore it. sell it when they chase it.

good luck all.

Good advice Xmart. Sadly there are still more people willing to gamble. Not Invest. Few will win the illuid game but lot can loose their life savings.

You are correct slstock. Another sad thing is, there are few people who promote these illiquid shares in this forum as well.

well, ASHO is a strong company, but I called manipulation for last month proceeding of ASHO.

My friend, Indication is already there. after 100% debt clearing, if political environment looks good, we may see lot of market inflow. market is at attractive PER, its getting more attractive with earning QtoQ. BFT, BFI sectors are growing QtoQ.

if I'm an investor, what should I look for?

xmart wrote:Last year It was GREG, DPL, CLPL and BLUE. now WAPO, ALUF, LALU, SINI, GOOD, INDO, ASHO.
I wonder how people can put their hard earned money into shares which represent bad cash-flows, Loss accumulating and less growth companies.

Sorry I was referring to this statement when I disagreed with you about ASHO. You are right on the manipulation of the stocks but that doesn't surprise anyone anymore.

In terms of what I would look for as an investor, the market P/E is still a very high 26 times. That is putting a lot of faith on company earnings and growth this quarter. We've already seen very good results but too few to suggest that earnings WILL catch up with the market expectations. I doubt these earnings will be able to bring down the market P/E at these price levels to around or less than 20 which would be a definite buy signal.

Best bet as an investor, would still be to bargain hunt or maybe park your money in solid high dividend paying stocks but this is going to be unattractive if interest rates do increase which I think they might.

Our artificially driven market has choked out space for a real fundamental run of stocks.

Just my opinions... I lose a lot of money on the market all the time so I'm really not the right person to be saying all this .

Market PER=26
BANK FINANCE AND INSURANCE =17.5
BEVERAGE FOOD AND TOBACCO = 24
CONSTRUCTION AND ENGINEERING= 13
MANUFACTURING = 23
DIVERSIFIED HOLDINGS= 34

to calculate market PER please eliminate high PER sectors and extra low PER sectors, then calculate general market PER, it is around 18. in case of H&T, IT and TELECOMMUNICATIONS, they already valuated for future earnings, but still buyers are willing to pay such price. so, ignore those in calculating market PER.

Yes, I do appreciate your view, we all here to learn something and earn something.

how is the market P/E calculated?

To reach 26x, either it is a value waited sector P/E average (which I haven't tried to calculate) or it is a straight up average but eliminates a few outlier sectors such as TLE, S&S, SRV, MTR, IT, H&T, and CLF. Then I get a market P/E of 25.6 ~ 26.

The P/B is also close to accurate with the market P/B being 3.2x, and the calculated P/B excluding the same sectors is 3.17 ~ 3.2x.

If this is the case, then the market P/E has already taken into account high and low PER sectors and is in fact 26x and not 18x as you mentioned. I knew it was too good to be true

Please correct me if I'm wrong, this is valuable information for me.

xmart wrote:Market PER=26
BANK FINANCE AND INSURANCE =17.5
BEVERAGE FOOD AND TOBACCO = 24
CONSTRUCTION AND ENGINEERING= 13
MANUFACTURING = 23
DIVERSIFIED HOLDINGS= 34

to calculate market PER please eliminate high PER sectors and extra low PER sectors, then calculate general market PER, it is around 18. in case of H&T, IT and TELECOMMUNICATIONS, they already valuated for future earnings, but still buyers are willing to pay such price. so, ignore those in calculating market PER.

Yes, I do appreciate your view, we all here to learn something and earn something.

Agree with most of what you say in this thread but not this point. You just can't average PER. The correct method to calculate market PER is to add the total earnings for each company and devide by total market capitalization.

if you want to leave out some sectors - deduct the total earnings of that sector from the numerator and deduct that sector's market cap from the denominator.

Or you multiply each sector P/E with a (sector mkt cap)/(total sample mkt cap) to get a weighted value and then average as normal.

Point is, I calculated the 26x P/E by simply averaging certain sectors' P/E as mentioned in my post above. I want to know if this is how the SEC got to their value or did they get to it using a better less erroneous method.

Also is the P/E shown pertaining to last fiscal year earnings against current price, or last four reported quarter's earnings against current price?

It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent that survives. It is the one that is the most adaptable to change.
Charles Darwin

Don't be ignorant!

tubal wrote:

xmart wrote:Market PER=26
BANK FINANCE AND INSURANCE =17.5
BEVERAGE FOOD AND TOBACCO = 24
CONSTRUCTION AND ENGINEERING= 13
MANUFACTURING = 23
DIVERSIFIED HOLDINGS= 34

to calculate market PER please eliminate high PER sectors and extra low PER sectors, then calculate general market PER, it is around 18. in case of H&T, IT and TELECOMMUNICATIONS, they already valuated for future earnings, but still buyers are willing to pay such price. so, ignore those in calculating market PER.

Yes, I do appreciate your view, we all here to learn something and earn something.

Agree with most of what you say in this thread but not this point. You just can't average PER. The correct method to calculate market PER is to add the total earnings for each company and devide by total market capitalization.

if you want to leave out some sectors - deduct the total earnings of that sector from the numerator and deduct that sector's market cap from the denominator.

friend, yes, I cannot simply add PERs of sector and divide it, what i called is add sector earnings together, say "A". then Market capitalization , say "B" then market PER would be B/A.

Elimination of IT would not do severe impact on market PER, but Elimination of H&T, Telecommunication sector would result to adjust market PER to 22 level. because I have to eliminate extra low PER sectors. This is rough method i used to get some idea about actual Q to Q growth of selected sectors, also selected companies, I would eliminate CSEC, CFVF like shares from my valuations.

Sorry, I got 18 for selected companies of selected sectors. Q to Q growth of, specially BFI, BFT is remarkable, I believe they can continue the pattern further. also, CONSTRUCTION AND ENGINEERING, POWER & ENERGY are showing momentum for future. IT and H&T are believed to be developed with tourism and BPO industry.

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this is a my personal valuation method. I may be wrong, so read this, comment this. but don't buy shares based on my views. because, i'm not a perfect person. i may be wrong....