My Share Portfolio

My Portfolio as at 24th November 2014. 2.08 pm.

After seeing your new portfolio I was about to buy CINV around Rs.110/.Finally I didn't buy. May be should study support base now.

There are good stocks to pick in the current market. My investment size would be Rs 100mn and I want to hold maximum 5 -10 companies. First I want to find answers to below questions before I start investing.


1. How long the Sri Lanka's construction boom is going to continue.
2. What are the current trends in the world food and commodity demand  and it's implication to the economy.
3. What implications the low interest rate will have on property prices and future demand for real estate.
4. If MR loses what implication country will have in respect infrastructure development and relationship with China.
5.what are companies that trade below PEG ratio of 1.
6. What are the companies not affected by the political uncertainty and what are companies currently benefited through political influence. 
7. What are the sectors that will perform best during the next year.
8. Owners of the companies and their past track record and credibility. 
9. Economic indicators, it's future trends and forecast.
10.  Overall market enthusiasm and future regulations.


This is too much work for one person. Perhaps we can start sharing few ideas here.

Seems like SStar wants to enter before Jan

Yes probably before elections, if predictions are that MR is going to get the 3rd term.

my first post in SLEF,

Good to contribute to a post like this heads on.

I cant answer all the questions but I can voice my opinion to some.

1. The construction boom is going to be for many years (my guess is maybe 10 to be safe) due to the fact that lot of construction projects are pending and more FDI's will be in Sri Lanka in the next 10 years in order to businesses to establish. So construction companies like AEL, MAGA, ICC, KEANGNAM, etc... will have the top hand. I believe there still untapped opportunities in construction sector.

3. I don't expect the property prices to go down in anyway and I think nobody is and I honestly don't believe the interest will be low from next year maybe towards from the end. I think we can agree that deflation is not good for the country.

4. I don't think there will be any major implications. Basically we don't owe China, we are owned by China.

6. Every company is subjected to political risk and influence in terms of trading in CSE. May be SLTL and any other owned by treasury department will be benefited through inherent risk but then again it's no secret that government officials prefers Dialog over Mobitel.

7. Banking and Finance / Motors / Hotels and Travels / Plantations

All in all I think if you are going to hold maximum of 10 its better be worth every penny and it should be definitely good in terms of fundamentals. If I were you I my top 10 definitely will include SAMP/LLUB/VONE and may be NDB.

btw I do hold SAMP and NDB

Cheers !!!

flash wrote:my first post in SLEF,

Good to contribute to a post like this heads on.

I cant answer all the questions but I can voice my opinion to some.

1. The construction boom is going to be for many years (my guess is maybe 10 to be safe) due to the fact that lot of construction projects are pending and more FDI's will be in Sri Lanka in the next 10 years in order to businesses to establish. So construction companies like AEL, MAGA, ICC, KEANGNAM, etc... will have the top hand. I believe there still untapped opportunities in construction sector.

3. I don't expect the property prices to go down in anyway and I think nobody is and I honestly don't believe the interest will be low from next year maybe towards from the end. I think we can agree that deflation is not good for the country.

4. I don't think there will be any major implications. Basically we don't owe China, we are owned by China.

6. Every company is subjected to political risk and influence in terms of trading in CSE. May be SLTL and any other owned by treasury department will be benefited through inherent risk but then again it's no secret that government officials prefers Dialog over Mobitel.

7. Banking and Finance / Motors / Hotels and Travels / Plantations

All in all I think if you are going to hold maximum of 10 its better be worth every penny and it should be definitely good in terms of fundamentals. If I were you I my top 10 definitely will include SAMP/LLUB/VONE and may be NDB.

btw I do hold SAMP and NDB

Cheers !!!

Well said, in your first post. Welcome to the forum.

hi Flash

Welcome to the forum ......... 

Koheda mecharakal Hangila hitiye ?????? 

@piras - Thanks:D

@siga - Thanks, I was looking this forum for sometime now. I have only a very small portfolio of good stocks. I am kind of a long term investor.

sstar please answer the questions that u ask that will help us

Yes my answer will follow shortly..

flash wrote:@piras - Thanks:D

@siga - Thanks, I was looking this forum for sometime now. I have only a very small portfolio of good stocks. I am kind of a long term investor.  

Flash

Welcome to the family.

That was a good one flash! along with construction goes up the supplements like cement and tiles hopefully!

waiting for the answer Sstar did you really investing 100000000 a lot of money

flash wrote:my first post in SLEF,

Good to contribute to a post like this heads on.

I cant answer all the questions but I can voice my opinion to some.

1. The construction boom is going to be for many years (my guess is maybe 10 to be safe) due to the fact that lot of construction projects are pending and more FDI's will be in Sri Lanka in the next 10 years in order to businesses to establish. So construction companies like AEL, MAGA, ICC, KEANGNAM, etc... will have the top hand. I believe there still untapped opportunities in construction sector.

3. I don't expect the property prices to go down in anyway and I think nobody is and I honestly don't believe the interest will be low from next year maybe towards from the end. I think we can agree that deflation is not good for the country.

4. I don't think there will be any major implications. Basically we don't owe China, we are owned by China.

6. Every company is subjected to political risk and influence in terms of trading in CSE. May be SLTL and any other owned by treasury department will be benefited through inherent risk but then again it's no secret that government officials prefers Dialog over Mobitel.

7. Banking and Finance / Motors / Hotels and Travels / Plantations

All in all I think if you are going to hold maximum of 10 its better be worth every penny and it should be definitely good in terms of fundamentals. If I were you I my top 10 definitely will include SAMP/LLUB/VONE and may be NDB.

btw I do hold SAMP and NDB

Cheers !!!

Good article..Thanks and welcome aboard..!!

Yes I will invest Rs 100mn, If interest rates stay at this level. Otherwise I am out!!!

I think this is a good post started by sstar.
It gives an idea how one should think , analyse before taking a investment desicion.
The success of investing based on how we make assumptions about the future , not the present. To see the favourable conditions and anticipate growth.

to be frank, i would wait few more weeks to see how this political drama go.
Affect of Winning MR or MS wont take much detrimental affect to the market as whole. Market will boom after the election definately. The problem arises if the game gets pretty bad and things go out of control in the political arena.
If matters going to settle in non democratic way things might be shaky.
As we know some owners of big companies support MR and some support MS.
There companies will affect by the person who wins.
So we have to have an idea about that fact.
Until a socialist party does not come to power and political stability persists we dont have to worry about growth of Sri Lanka. with correct visionary management post war sri lanka should boom !

well said DR.stock

Thank you for good discussion here.

I think with time we will have peaceful political environment in the future. One time JVP had different approach. Now they have selected democratic path. Unlike in the past even communist countries have accepted free economy system. As a result of this they have benefited lot. They have big market to export their things now. Similarly western countries also have benefited lot due to increased activities in Asia. More import and export will benefit each other. Sri-Lanka will have demand and market for their few emerging commodities in the coming decade.

I have already portfolio for next two to five years. Last couple of days I am readjusting it while using my risk and credit management skills to face next stages of current major uptrend. I think agriculture will have bright future. Don’t forget high quality black and organic tea industry in Sri-Lanka. Hotel and food are the two sectors to watch. Next two financial years are very important for both poultry and tea industry. That is where we are going to see industry capacity, new markets, growth, demand and prices etc. Accordingly we can get wise decisions. Too much trading in a major uptrend is not a wise decision. Sometime market can touch 8000 by December or first week of January 2015. After that we should prepare for next stages of current major uptrend. I don’t have any stocks in my portfolio which suitable for first and first half of second stage of current major uptrend. Still some crowds are trying to chase same types of stocks. That is where they are going to make mistakes again. By Friday there will be some stability. Month of December we may have another active period in the CSE. I am going to stop following hot news now. Because we may make mistakes in the stocks market and sometime we will become bankrupt. Even if sky is going to fall stock market is not going to stop.

Now market is not in the first stage. In the next stage of market there will demand for defensive sectors. I believe next year defensive sectors will become more expensive. It is better to target stocks before they become more expensive. We know some stocks have appreciated by more than 100% and whereas market has appreciated only by more than 22% during last one year. Don’t buy and sell stocks unless you have valid reasons such as fundamentals, behaviour of stock and managing credit etc. Do not follow the crowd. By reading some news we can make some big mistakes in the market. Risk and credit management is very important. Finally in Asia food related stocks should outperform others in the coming decade.

Good luck!

VALUEPICK wrote:Thank you for good discussion here.

I think with time we will have peaceful political environment in the future. One time JVP had different approach. Now they have selected democratic path. Unlike in the past even communist countries have accepted free economy system. As a result of this they have benefited lot. They have big market to export their things now. Similarly western countries also have benefited lot due to increased activities in Asia. More import and export will benefit each other. Sri-Lanka will have demand and market for their few emerging commodities in the coming decade.

I have already portfolio for next two to five years. Last couple of days I am readjusting it while using my risk and credit management skills to face next stages of current major uptrend. I think agriculture will have bright future. Don’t forget high quality black and organic tea industry in Sri-Lanka. Hotel and food are the two sectors to watch. Next two financial years are very important for both poultry and tea industry.  That is where we are going to see industry capacity, new markets, growth, demand and prices etc. Accordingly we can get wise decisions.  Too much trading in a major uptrend is not a wise decision. Sometime market can touch 8000 by December or first week of January 2015. After that we should prepare for next stages of current major uptrend. I don’t have any stocks in my portfolio which suitable for first and first half of second stage of current major uptrend. Still some crowds are trying to chase same types of stocks. That is where they are going to make mistakes again. By Friday there will be some stability. Month of December we may have another active period in the CSE. I am going to stop following hot news now. Because we may make mistakes in the stocks market and sometime we will become bankrupt. Even if sky is going to fall stock market is not going to stop.

Now market is not in the first stage. In the next stage of market there will demand for defensive sectors. I believe next year defensive sectors will become more expensive. It is better to target stocks before they become more expensive. We know some stocks have appreciated by more than 100% and whereas market has appreciated only by more than 22% during last one year. Don’t buy and sell stocks unless you have valid reasons such as fundamentals, behaviour of stock and managing credit etc. Do not follow the crowd. By reading some news we can make some big mistakes in the market. Risk and credit management is very important. Finally in Asia food related stocks should outperform others in the coming decade.

Good luck!

Yes. Well said VP.

Friends during a market boom(currently we are in such stage) there will be temporary setbacks (current scenario). 

As a dealer i break the boom into 4 stages. And i believe we are currently in the second stage of it so another 2 to go.

At this stage the big players are still collecting.They will only start dumping at the end of 3rd & the 4th stage. And the 3rd will last for some time (maybe 6 months or more)

So there is enough room. Examples are there from todays market too. I said yesterday today will be a dull day & it is a dull day.

And i have to tell you i have not cut my portfolio in the down pore due to confidence i have on the future. But i bought & sold. and again buying.

+ + to VP and RPPA!

+ + + to VP and RPPA and other experts.

Hi Everyone ,

So MR lost and we have a new president. eagerly wait his 100 day plan and policies. in the mean time some of my picks are as follows: OSEA, ESL,CFVF, COCO. also look at TKYO, LIOC, ALUM, ASIR a dark horse of mine is Madu (speculative play). GL.

Good pick.

Aubrey Perera wrote:Hi Everyone ,

So MR lost and we have a new president. eagerly wait his 100 day plan and policies. in the mean time some of my picks are as follows: OSEA, ESL,CFVF, COCO. also look at TKYO, LIOC, ALUM, ASIR a dark horse of mine is Madu (speculative play). GL.

Good Selection Aubrey,

Madu???? Any reason Aubrey..

I prefer AMSL over ASIR.
BLI
MEL
ASIY(two dividends due)
Anyway early february dividend rain.

Aubrey - ESL any particular reason?

Thanks everyone.Madu speculative because they have improved in last few quarters. But don't really know have to wait for the December quarterly reports to start pouring in. ESL simply because they have had a stupendous year and as mentioned above excited to see last quarter results. hard to say how the future will look for counters such as CFVF and ESL but they have made great profits and this should reflect in the current share price.

One odd pick is SERV.N.

Gaining a little activity at the moment.
There are rumours regarding this share.
It can take off soon.