GRAN What's Happening?

Hi guys,
What is happening to GRAN. Im stuck with GRAN bought at 175 and 168 levels. Now it's at 115.Many Predicted it to bonce back, but not happening so. What should I do?
Please help me out .............

Hmmm...looking at the technical aspects, at the moment GRAN is not showing any signals of a bullish reversal. As per fundamentals GRAN seems to be a reasonable pick at the moment. However, I feel fundamentally BFL is more attractive than GRAN. Having said that if there is any sort of poultry rally I think all will have a good run (BFL/TAFL/GRAN). So will have to wait and see.

T20 wrote:Hi guys,
What is happening to GRAN. Im stuck with GRAN bought at 175 and 168 levels. Now it's at 115.Many Predicted it to bonce back, but not happening so. What should I do?
Please help me out ............. :pale: :affraid: :no: :(

It again went up to 150 - 160 levels... why didnt u sell?

Any way don't sell now? Also don't expect to get cash out from this investment soon. I do not expect this to go below 100.

The second quarter is good for poultry stock. There may be a run after second quarter results out. If not hold on to this for an year or so you may exit without loss or less loss.

Note that this counter is highly manipulated by few guys. so hold onto this they will shoot up the price after they collect enough and after a some good news.

Note. I also had GRAN bought at above levels. I sold them at 140 - 150 levels with loss. I would consider buying again if this touch 100.

Ahooo dukaki thithki iraki cSF gaththa man giya paarema yaluwath gihin,kukulanta niwan sapa labewa apita propit labewa....... meeta siRA

T20 wrote:Hi guys,
What is happening to GRAN. Im stuck with GRAN bought at 175 and 168 levels. Now it's at 115.Many Predicted it to bonce back, but not happening so. What should I do?
Please help me out .............

If you are thinking long term on this as you bought it as a growth stock forget about it just as fixed deposit. But if you are worried short term, wait for the next time GRAN has a run to sell it. Last time GRAN resistance was around RS130. It was broken and has significantly come down further. Current price approaching BFL PE. It seems GRAN/TAFL has not found it base this time yet and can drop a bit more. It also apprears to be manipulated. Note technically they are now on the oversold region so keep a look out for a break out.

Over to the experts !! They said its even more attractive around 150 level and stocking even more shares!
I guess almost all the big experts have 100% GRAN in their portfolios by the way its so cheap now!!

Rajitha wrote:

Over to the experts !! They said its even more attractive around 150 level and stocking even more shares!
I guess almost all the big experts have 100% GRAN in their portfolios by the way its so cheap now!!

Rajitha,

I am not an expert and irrespective of whom you are referring to we need to be fair. This is not a vengeance game to say I was right and you were wrong. To be fair yes you did warn about GRAN short term price drops before quarter results for which I respect.

If some people in the forum are in trouble with this share Now we need to point them to the correct facts with current market situation. But please do not harp on the old issue as that ship is already sailed.

It is not only GRAN , but many other fundamentally strong shares also have come down. Just look at banking sector . Ex NTB etc.
Look at plantation sector. Is the current KGAL value justified? Once it was at Rs 280.

In march quarter GRAN displayed dismal results below many expectations. Then it came down. But then it ran to Rs 160+. It is down again drastically and now at Rs 115. Also shares doesn't stay at the same price. They fluctuate. Now we need to analyse what is the situation presently to help others. Is GRAN still overvalued? If someone bought long term ( not shor term) at Rs 150 is the price bad? Can we say it will it never reach over Rs 180 again in the future ? ( future= depend on intentions of investor holding period)

slstock wrote:

Rajitha wrote:

Over to the experts !! They said its even more attractive around 150 level and stocking even more shares!
I guess almost all the big experts have 100% GRAN in their portfolios by the way its so cheap now!!

Rajitha,

I am not an expert and irrespective of whom you are referring to we need to be fair. This is not a vengeance game to say I was right and you were wrong. To be fair yes you did warn about GRAN short term price drops before quarter results for which I respect.

If some people in the forum are in trouble with this share Now we need to point them to the correct facts with current market situation. But please do not harp on the old issue as that ship is already sailed.

It is not only GRAN , but many other fundamentally strong shares also have come down. Just look at banking sector . Ex NTB etc.
Look at plantation sector. Is the current KGAL value justified? Once it was at Rs 280.

In march quarter GRAN displayed dismal results below many expectations. Then it came down. But then it ran to Rs 160+. It is down again drastically and now at Rs 115. Also shares doesn't stay at the same price. They fluctuate. Now we need to analyse what is the situation presently to help others. Is GRAN still overvalued? If someone bought long term ( not shor term) at Rs 150 is the price bad? Can we say it will it never reach over Rs 180 again in the future ? ( future= depend on intentions of investor holding period)

As I can remember you been telling its great buy and a rally is coming even when share was over Rs 170 man! Also why would some one buy a share for even long to medium term at Rs 170 when you can buy it at Rs 100 ? You can buy over 2/3 more shares from that price you wasted. Also whats the point even if it hit Rs 180 some time in future for people who bought the share in 170s ?
You putting your cash in bank gives couple of fold more earnings than that!!
Even when it ran near 160 second time I can't remember you saying people when its going up to sell their shares and exit? I guess you did for your shares from the sound of it here though!

I got countless messages from people on this forum who are in trouble thanks to the so called experts GRAN promoting !! They were making this the old PCH days GEM here saying how great and a huge rally is coming while price keep going down!! The answer of them was its becoming even more attractive and great times to collect at Rs 160-170s! At least with the PCH promoting the share price did go up!!

You could have find the reasons when price is going up suddenly before panic and buy the share. Then I'm sure you will not ask this question. Anyway look for valid supporting fundamental and strategic reasons before you buy. There are enough of fundamentally strong shares to buy my friend. But thing is impossible to predict because of the "Mafia" in the market.

Rajitha wrote:

slstock wrote:

Rajitha wrote:

Over to the experts !! They said its even more attractive around 150 level and stocking even more shares!
I guess almost all the big experts have 100% GRAN in their portfolios by the way its so cheap now!!

Rajitha,

I am not an expert and irrespective of whom you are referring to we need to be fair. This is not a vengeance game to say I was right and you were wrong. To be fair yes you did warn about GRAN short term price drops before quarter results for which I respect.

If some people in the forum are in trouble with this share Now we need to point them to the correct facts with current market situation. But please do not harp on the old issue as that ship is already sailed.

It is not only GRAN , but many other fundamentally strong shares also have come down. Just look at banking sector . Ex NTB etc.
Look at plantation sector. Is the current KGAL value justified? Once it was at Rs 280.

In march quarter GRAN displayed dismal results below many expectations. Then it came down. But then it ran to Rs 160+. It is down again drastically and now at Rs 115. Also shares doesn't stay at the same price. They fluctuate. Now we need to analyse what is the situation presently to help others. Is GRAN still overvalued? If someone bought long term ( not shor term) at Rs 150 is the price bad? Can we say it will it never reach over Rs 180 again in the future ? ( future= depend on intentions of investor holding period)

As I can remember you been telling its great buy and a rally is coming even when share was over Rs 170 man! Also why would some one buy a share for even long to medium term at Rs 170 when you can buy it at Rs 100 ? You can buy over 2/3 more shares from that price you wasted. Also whats the point even if it hit Rs 180 some time in future for people who bought the share in 170s ?
You putting your cash in bank gives couple of fold more earnings than that!!
Even when it ran near 160 second time I can't remember you saying people when its going up to sell their shares and exit? I guess you did for your shares from the sound of it here though!

I got countless messages from people on this forum who are in trouble thanks to the so called experts GRAN promoting !! They were making this the old PCH days GEM here saying how great and a huge rally is coming while price keep going down!! The answer of them was its becoming even more attractive and great times to collect at Rs 160-170s! At least with the PCH promoting the share price did go up!!

Rajitha,

Lets play decent here. If you start attacking unjustifiably then others including myself have to retort too. You are blaming lot of others. Who are these people. Please say their names straight so they also know to reply.

You make it sound like I promoted stocks here. Look at my posts I never push people to buy. But I do state my opinions and analysis. Yes when there was lot of market interest in GRAN I said it was attractive at that time. Then they reported a bad quarter which was much below expectations. Doesn't it happen to other companies too? We are not God to predict 100%.

I still believe GRAN is a good long term stock. That why Laugf bought it at Rs205 and perpetual bought it at RS250 ( bought too high) but they are still holding some shares. Long term play and short term play is different. Do not attack other people approaches if they are different to yours.


"As I can remember you been telling its great buy and a rally is coming even when share was over Rs 170 man! Also why would some one buy a share for even long to medium term at Rs 170 when you can buy it at Rs 100 ? "

Did you know that it would fall to Rs 100? if so you should have said so. You said it would fall to Rs 150 not RS 100. Ofcourse there were rallies from time to time after wards. There was one which GRAN went upto Rs 140 and then much as 160 recently. Does this not happen to other shares. So what are you saying? Shares do not fluctuate? If some short term trader was so concerned then they could have sold at RS 160 to exit GRAN. Now down to RS 115. Has this not happend other shares?


Do you remember the time you said LDEV rights can gain 100% return. Did I say you were promoting and attack. I took yours as another opinion But tried to politely show another side which you did not accept. See what LDEV price is now.
http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t2846-ldev-prospect?highlight=ldev


We all make different kinds of play depending on the market situation. Some we win. Some we loose on short term. Mostly it is a game of patience also. ( I am not saying there will be a rally soon but can you say there won't be one in the future when GRAN gets over sold? If some one is concerned abotu short t term they can sell them also to reduce losses)

Let us be decent here and not show who is superior in time of difficulty to many and help each other out.

For whatever is worth this is what I posted after 1q results release.


First lets get the truth out.

- Am I and are we dissapointed with TAFL/GRAN results this quarter. YES. We who invested were all expecting more naturally.
- were there people warning about generalizing earnings based on December . YES. And I agreed then and now. Hats off to them.

Now, is the company going down the drain and should we panic My answer is NO. Not yet especially if you are Long term investor. But then again it really depends on the individual mentality and intention to panic.



Shorterm :

The price has come down from a Rs 265 to Rs 145 now. I would say the current price is adjusted mostly to incorporate this off quarter issue. It appears the big investors had already done their selling including perpetual who got wind of this quarter issue and disposed part of their shares, which they bought at Rs 250.

Can there be further selling? If one panics and base their assumption on this 1 quarter EPS then this should be valued at around Rs 100. Then again should we do so? Is it correct? If we do so it is contradictory to the same statement to annulize eps from December isn't it?

Will there be people panicing and want to sell and will the price go down further. Maybe it depends on the person.

Below description is for Long term Investors ( who can hold for 1 year or more atleast. Not for short term traders)

My advice is do not panic yet. Watch for further develpments from now and next quarter. TAFL and GRAN went through much harder times from from 2007 to early 2010. There are recovering and have growth plan which will take time to take effect. As IPOGuru and Econ mentioned their year to year growth is not bad. It just quarter to quarter is bad.

The reason as mentioned on GRAN report,

"As the local maize production was badly affected by the unfavorable weather conditions early this year and the Government restriction on importation of maize still continues, the sourcing of the main raw material has become a major challenge for the poultry industry.
In spite of high raw material prices, the company was able to make a profit during the period under review mainly due to its cost effective feed formulation & efficient operations."


ALso notice on the report NOTE

EPF has roughly 5 million shares
Laugf Gas limited has 1 miilion
Perpetual still has collectively about 1.1 million
Nimal Perera has 0.4 million.

I am not sure whether the latter 2 sold again but EPF and Laugf might go for long term on this. They still have a reason. If EPF and Laugf quits next quarter I would be worried more.



Finally a note to my fellow investors:

Folks lets pull our selves together here.None of us are perfect. We are volunteerign our free time to comment and help here. I don;t beleive any of us professionals and even if so nobody can predict market 100% though they may claim to do so falsely . Please do not blame others ( unless someone insults and abuses what you say where I leave the judgement upto you.

Finally, let us be united in anothers time of misery and help each other and not prove who is right and who is wrong to show superiority.
We all have made mistakes. But is GRAN/TAFL a mistake for long term? People who warned about GRAN /TAFL situation in the short term thank you for you insight.

SL Stock no one is perfect and no one cannot predict what will happen correctly. We are using this forum as guide and thanks for all the comments made in each counter using members valuable time. sharing thoughts. This is a free forum. We can discuss any topic.
I also brought TAFL recently but in 130 Level and hope this price fall due to poor quarterly results (as mentioned earlier price fall down in last six months up to 120 level only) and hope if we hold for some time we can get good results. In CSE market changes differently and we can see what happening on this days.

Who told you that EPF and Perpetual bought GRAN that high I can't see any notice! All I can see is them reducing their stake not increasing!!

Secondly I did said it will drop to Rs 150 and then I went on to say I beleive it might fall even to 130- 120 level! Go check the posts!
Also About LDEV all I said was you have a good chance you can earn 100% return on this share! And even before rights came I knew it will not happen when all others talking of rights trading so high! I said rights started trading late and what I hope will hopefully not happen to LDEV even though I know it will! I never asked anyone to buy LDEV in this forum or made any more posts afterwards as I was not 100% sure like all the forum gods here regarding GRAN! Who went on a rampage to show how wrong I Was and what a huge GRAN rally is coming! this was when GRAN at Rs 170 mind you!!


FYI :- Constantly talking about one share and saying its great share with future growth and its at a bargain at current price is share promoting! Thast what happened about many shares in investnow and that's what happened here even worse reguarding GRAN back then!
Only difference was GRAN went down while investnow promoted stocks went up and over here no one was there to back me up like there in investnow!
BTW in neither place anyone said go buy the share in those words! But just the constant promting of stocks!!
But hi as that cartoon said!! if the share go to Rs 160 now its over 40% gain mind you that for most its still a big loss!!

Rajitha wrote:Who told you that EPF and Perpetual bought GRAN that high I can't see any notice! All I can see is them reducing their stake not increasing!!

See below
http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t1444-gran-one-million-crossing-rs-205
http://srilankastockpicks.blogspot.com/2011/05/epf-laugfs-taste-chicken.html

Yes Perpetual has reduced stake. But they did not get out completely. EPF and Laughf also still there. It is apparent Perpetual had info before we did about March quarter results. They reduced their stake before march 31st quarter.
Laughf did not.Perpetual is more of a short term player than EPF and LAUGf. Different player play differently.

Time to time there were ups and downs with GRAN. It recently went to RS 160. Now it is down. That is the reality just like any other share in this bear market. There are much worse shares doing up with no fundamentals at all. GRAN is just another share. When a member asked about about a share, as this time, as courtesy I share my opinion and view. Many other do too. Those days and now it was the same. Some shares I like you won;t and the opposite. Sometimes we have agreed on shares. Thats what this forum is there for.

The key is to do it politely in a educated and a non attacking way as nobody is perfect here without going out with gun to seek vengeance.


I was the only one who responded to your post below. Whom were you really after in your mind. ? Just say straight, so they cna share their opinion too.

Rajitha wrote:

Over to the experts !! They said its even more attractive around 150 level and stocking even more shares!
I guess almost all the big experts have 100% GRAN in their portfolios by the way its so cheap now!!

Rajitha , BTW, kindly don;t mix up people. I was one of the people who wanted you back when you decided to keep away from the forum. Just because I am responded to your post in counter way it does not mean I am your enemy.


BTW , I have not given any negative reps.

Non of those 2 above links give any official notice saying EPF or Perpetual bought any GRAN shares! they are just speculations and baseless promoting as I mentioned before! One start a rumor and others like you keep saying the same and before long everyone start believing them!
All official things I can see and from info I know all they did was get the price up and bait as many stupid retialors as possible!! Thanks to the people here spreading rumors and promoting they succeeded to a great end! Specially the individual names I knew that started these promoting campaign a long time ago!!

I never said your my enemy or anything! I'm just paying back for a;; the hate received for trying to explain truth to some ignorant people! At least you did not stoop so low to to insult my father then edit it out. that on top of personal insults about my profession and me !!

Also just because GRAN shot to 160 does not make it right! IT shot up when market climbed high ans specially to make room for few more idiots to get out and still now it has dropped to 110 level. 160 still is though really low level when there are people who are stuck from 250 level! Also people who bought GRAN over 170-180 because of the continues promoting on these forums!!

And I meant lots of people including you when I posted 1st saying forum experts!!

Rajitha wrote:Non of those 2 above links give any official notice saying EPF or Perpetual bought any GRAN shares! they are just speculations and baseless promoting as I mentioned before! One start a rumor and others like you keep saying the same and before long everyone start believing them!
All official things I can see and from info I know all they did was get the price up and bait as many stupid retialors as possible!! Thanks to the people here spreading rumors and promoting they succeeded to a great end! Specially the individual names I knew that started these promoting campaign a long time ago!!

I never said your my enemy or anything! I'm just paying back for a;; the hate received for trying to explain truth to some ignorant people! At least you did not stoop so low to to insult my father then edit it out. that on top of personal insults about my profession and me !!

Also just because GRAN shot to 160 does not make it right! IT shot up when market climbed high ans specially to make room for few more idiots to get out and still now it has dropped to 110 level. 160 still is though really low level when there are people who are stuck from 250 level! Also people who bought GRAN over 170-180 because of the continues promoting on these forums!!

And I meant lots of people including you when I posted 1st saying forum experts!!

FYI, did you read the link in that post to ft.lk. Not all large private transactions are reported on cse.lk.

Rajitha, I see there is no point in talking to you. You do not on a fair basis compromise from your point of view.

Good luck anyway

Kaush wrote:
Anyway look for valid supporting fundamental and strategic reasons before you buy. There are enough of fundamentally strong shares to buy my friend. But thing is impossible to predict because of the "Mafia" in the market.

Agree and rep for you.