GLAS Analysis

djdila · 1 GLAS Analysis Sun Jun 19, 2011 5:38 pm

djdila

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QoQ earnings pattern

30 JUN 2010 = 53.2Mn , EPS 0.06      30 JUN 2009 = (118.7Mn) , EPS (0.12)
30 SEP 2010 = 157Mn , EPS 0.17       30 SEP 2009 = 0.7Mn
31 DEC 2010 = 190Mn , EPS 0.20       31 DEC 2009 = 28.6MN , EPS 0.03
31 MAR 2011 = 178.4Mn , EPS 0.19    31 MAR 2010 = 28Mn , EPS 0.03

YoY comparison

Revenue Up 18%
31 MAR 2010 = 3518Mn
31 MAR 2011 = 4163Mn

Profit after Tax Up 1147%
31 MAR 2010 = (61Mn)
31 MAR 2011 = 578.7Mn

EPS Up 1216%
31 MAR 2010 = (0.06)
31 MAR 2011 = 0.61

Share holders Value
31 MAR 2010 = 2215Mn
31 MAR 2011 = 2794Mn

Net Assets per Share
31 MAR 2010 = 2.33
31 MAR 2011 = 2.94

ROE
31 MAR 2010 = (61Mn)/2215Mn = (2.7)%
31 MAR 2011 = 578.7Mn/2794Mn = 20%

Dividend
31 MAR 2010 = 0.02
31 MAR 2011 = 0.30

share valuation

GLAS Current share Price Rs 9.8
GLAS PE = Current share price/EPS
            = 9.8/0.61 = 16
Acording to the CSE Sector PER is 19.8
Therefor
GLAS share valuation = Sector PER * EPS
                       = 19.8*0.61 = Rs 12

SOURCE - www.cse.lk
http://www.cse.lk/cmt/upload_report_file/666_1280742961581.pdf
http://www.cse.lk/cmt/upload_report_file/666_1288610575480.pdf
http://www.cse.lk/cmt/upload_report_file/666_1295517970025.pdf
http://www.cse.lk/cmt/upload_report_file/666_1307439004743.pdf

Look @ those figurs. They had recoverd their 61Mn loss in 2010 and made big profit for 2011.
& see their ROE. it seems attractive. In near future this share will worth more than this Rs12. referring the reports u can understand that the company has massive growth in last FY.

Pls share ur technical view with us.....

Expert Pls correct me if i'm wrong..

Laughing

Last edited by djdila on Sun Jun 19, 2011 6:39 pm; edited 3 times in total (Reason for editing : Attach source files from CSE)

wgsaman · 2 Re: GLAS Analysis Sun Jun 19, 2011 5:55 pm

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good work djdila

Gaja · 3 Re: GLAS Analysis Sun Jun 19, 2011 5:58 pm

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dividend declared 30 cents payable in August 2011

StockD · 4 Re: GLAS Analysis Sun Jun 19, 2011 6:53 pm

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This is very clear analysis.. Even a baby can understand this kind of calculation.
very good DJDILA.... this is very useful for me..
Thank you.. Very Happy

xmart · 5 Re: GLAS Analysis Sun Jun 19, 2011 8:55 pm

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i have a question,

why you people use Sector PER and Market PER to valuate shares. for emerging markets use 15x as maximum fair price earning ration in generally, I agree in growth prospect, PER can be differ, even 25x PER share can has good growth future. in your analysis please consider PEG too. it will give a complete picture as whole.

thanks..

djdila · 6 Re: GLAS Analysis Sun Jun 19, 2011 9:32 pm

djdila

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xmart wrote:i have a question,

why you people use Sector PER and Market PER to valuate shares. for emerging markets use 15x as maximum fair price earning ration in generally, I agree in growth prospect, PER can be differ, even 25x PER share can has good growth future. in your analysis please consider PEG too. it will give a complete picture as whole.

thanks..

For ur first question, see below link.. It'll giv u , meaning of Sector PER & why we use that.
http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t388-why-sector-per-used-to-calculate-the-market-price

xmart · 7 Re: GLAS Analysis Sun Jun 19, 2011 9:50 pm

xmart

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djdila wrote:

xmart wrote:i have a question,

why you people use Sector PER and Market PER to valuate shares. for emerging markets use 15x as maximum fair price earning ration in generally, I agree in growth prospect, PER can be differ, even 25x PER share can has good growth future. in your analysis please consider PEG too. it will give a complete picture as whole.

thanks..

For ur first question, see below link.. It'll giv u , meaning of Sector PER & why we use that.
http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t388-why-sector-per-used-to-calculate-the-market-price

ok, for me, this is too much. overall market is trading well above the world emerging market PER of 16x. that is why we could see lot of sellout and foreign outflow after sudden boom in last year. this year is a consolidating year. people bought shares by paying premium to growth after war. then market went to 26x PER.

overall market is bearish. which created by lot of IPOs, lot of funds outflow and regulatory effects. where you being when GLAS traded at 4 few months ago. like lot of stocks like BFI, BFT GLAS is consolidating its position. people paid premium to growth. then it shows its growth.
then, now you can't expect rest of investors to pay another premium to next growth. but don't worry. GLAS is a good company which give you a good return in long term.

personally, I select 12x stocks and low PEG stocks.

no offense friend, this is what i believe and express with due respect to all. not to change your mind about investing. different people may have different approach to CSE. I believe it should come down to 16~18 PER with 2012 reports. then CSE new journey may start.

djdila · 8 Re: GLAS Analysis Sun Jun 19, 2011 10:49 pm

djdila

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xmart wrote:

djdila wrote:

xmart wrote:i have a question,

why you people use Sector PER and Market PER to valuate shares. for emerging markets use 15x as maximum fair price earning ration in generally, I agree in growth prospect, PER can be differ, even 25x PER share can has good growth future. in your analysis please consider PEG too. it will give a complete picture as whole.

thanks..

For ur first question, see below link.. It'll giv u , meaning of Sector PER & why we use that.
http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t388-why-sector-per-used-to-calculate-the-market-price

ok, for me, this is too much. overall market is trading well above the world emerging market PER of 16x. that is why we could see lot of sellout and foreign outflow after sudden boom in last year. this year is a consolidating year. people bought shares by paying premium to growth after war. then market went to 26x PER.

overall market is bearish. which created by lot of IPOs, lot of funds outflow and regulatory effects. where you being when GLAS traded at 4 few months ago. like lot of stocks like BFI, BFT GLAS is consolidating its position. people paid premium to growth. then it shows its growth.
then, now you can't expect rest of investors to pay another premium to next growth. but don't worry. GLAS is a good company which give you a good return in long term.

personally, I select 12x stocks and low PEG stocks.

no offense friend, this is what i believe and express with due respect to all. not to change your mind about investing. different people may have different approach to CSE. I believe it should come down to 16~18 PER with 2012 reports. then CSE new journey may start.

Hey Bro,
I'm not telling this share is more undervalued. This is only a analysis of this company and its future. I used here sector PER for valuate the share price. In cse their is a average sector PE. IF we analysis a stock we need to use relevant sector PE. i think we cant use market PE to evaluate the share price. it is common parameter for the whole listed companies share price. And sector PE is not only parameter to evaluate the Share price. PEG is also better one. i Agree, the low PEG is good. People are investing their money for the companies. If they perform well then share price will go up again. This is what i trying to mention here. People hav different idea abut the stocks. This kind of discussion is very good to sort out the confusion things.

cse.alpha · 9 Re: GLAS Analysis Mon Jun 20, 2011 8:24 am

cse.alpha

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Careful when using the CSE's sector PERs.

The official CSE manufacturing sector PER of 19.8x is almost certainly based on historical earnings, not sure if trailing or last audited. What really matters is future PERs, and future EPS.

Further note that manufacturing sector consists of 30+ companies, some of which are not closely comparable to GLAS (such as SUGA, GRAN, TKYO, BLUE, tile companies etc) and some have very high PERs due to low profits, which then distort the sector PER.

Ask yourself what would be fair PER for a company in GLAS position, with almost monopolistic presence, but having a few very strong buyers and high energy costs, and relate to EPS growth prospects.

gann · 10 Re: GLAS Analysis Mon Jun 20, 2011 8:27 am

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Sector PER should depend on expected growth, Risk Free Interest and Earning volatility. Using Past Per for future price expectations is like comparing apples and pears. You could do a pin point price valuation for tomorrow if you know the values of Expected growth, Central Bank Interest Rate changes and Earning Stability today. Oh WE may need the future natural disaster list and political stability index as well. And to be even pin point a through comprehensive risk profile would be invaluable.