ARPICO INSURANCE PLC (AINS.N0000)

KAS10 · 26 Arpico Insurance (AINS) Tue Apr 10, 2018 12:06 pm

KAS10

Manager - Equity Analytics

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Join date : 2014-08-05

Guys what do you think about AINS (Arpico Insurance)????
There's only 6 million shares in the market (free float) and trading at EPS 3 .

Please discuss and thanks

DS Wijesinghe · 27 Re: ARPICO INSURANCE PLC (AINS.N0000) Wed Apr 11, 2018 12:14 pm

DS Wijesinghe

Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

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Join date : 2017-05-12

It has been in my watch list as well over the past 1 year and waited for 2017 financial reports to decide. Bought @17/50 last month whilst another buy order @ 16/90 narrowly missed when it started moving up again after hitting low of 17/-. My decision to buy this stock as a long term investment for the next 5 years was based on my own analysis, to make myself clear that this investment will give me a return of around 18% CAGR beating the fixed deposit interest rates.

1. Do I like, reasonably understand and am comfortable with insurance business? Yes I do. Have a few life insurance policies from 2 companies and have a fair knowledge as to how life insurance policies work through regular interaction with my life sales agents servicing me. I also regularly read insurance company and insurance industry articles. To some extent I can interpret insurance company financial reports to try and predict their future. A life insurance policy from AINS would have been ideal, but I do not have one

2. How have they performed in the past 5 years?
a. Total Revenue - Compounded Annual Growth Rate is 48%
(Gross Written Premium - 5 year CAGR is 52%)
( First Year Premium - 3 year CAGR is 46%)- new business growing excellent
Won an international award as the Fastest Growing Life Insurer
(Renewal Premium-3 year CAGR is 68%)-Renewal premiums collected efficiently
b. Net Profit 3 year CAGR 151%
( only life insurance company to post profits in the 3rd year of operation)
c. Earnings per share - 3 year CAGR 142%
d. Net Asset Value per share - 5 year CAGR is 15%
e. Dividend per Share- 1st Dividend declared in 2017. Rs.0.40 per Share

3. Can their Management and CEO ensure this fantastic growth levels to be maintained in next 5 years, till 2022 ? YES
There is no CEO since 2016 but only an Acting Chairman. It is clear the defacto Chairman and CEO is Dr. Sena Yaddhige. He is not a life insurer capable of driving sales to such heights. He ensures costs are minimized through Arpico group synergies and focus on profitability. Then who is behind their fantastic growth in sales?
In their IPO document there are 2 sales AGMs(who have been in the company since inception) are now grown to the levels of GMs. They don’t have high end qualifications under their names but seem to be street smart, well experienced with international qualifications in life sales. AINS doesn’t have a comparatively large life sales force but as it grows over the next 5 years I can bet my money for these 2 gentlemen to grow sales and Dr. Yaddhige to ensure growth in profitability.

4. What are my predictions by 2022, EPS? Market value of a share? Compounded annual rate of return on my investment?

a. EPS growth at a minimum of 2018-25%, 2019-20%, 2020-20%, 2021-18%, 2022-18%
2017 EPS@ Rs. 3.11 and by 2022 - Rs. 7.79
b. 2017 PER- 5.47 @ closing market value of a share Rs. 17/-
Even if current sluggish market sentiments continue , I predict it could maintain a similar PER of 5.20 by the end of 2022
c. Predicted market value of a share by the end of 2022 is
EPS Rs. 7.79 @ PER 5.20 = Closing market value of a share Rs. 40/50
d. This gives me a 18% Compounded Annual rate of return by 2022, beating current bank fixed deposit rates

CAUTION- I do not recommend any one to rely upon my analysis but strongly advice to do their own comprehensive analysis before making an investment decision on AINS

anges · 28 Re: ARPICO INSURANCE PLC (AINS.N0000) Wed Apr 11, 2018 3:01 pm

anges

Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

Posts : 749
Join date : 2012-12-04

looks good ! good management and dividend

EquityChamp · 29 Re: ARPICO INSURANCE PLC (AINS.N0000) Wed Apr 11, 2018 5:22 pm

EquityChamp

Moderator

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Arpico Insurance hasn't done the changes in valuing the life fund according to the new rules by Insurance Board. They will do that this year. Once they do it then their reserves will shoot up similar to CTCE, UAL , etc.

abey · 30 ARPICO INSURANCE PLC (AINS.N0000) Sun Oct 13, 2019 6:04 pm

abey

Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

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tomorrow price Twisted Evil

wisdom79 · 31 Re: ARPICO INSURANCE PLC (AINS.N0000) Sun Oct 13, 2019 8:20 pm

wisdom79

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Insurance shares are naturally moving up. Wait it will move above 25 soon.

Jins and AAIC will start soon.

abey · 32 ARPICO INSURANSE Mon Oct 14, 2019 8:10 pm

abey

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today 21

good luck

abey · 33 ARPICO INSURANCE PLC (AINS.N0000) Thu Oct 17, 2019 10:53 pm

abey

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today 22 and 22.50 Very Happy

mihiri84 · 34 Re: ARPICO INSURANCE PLC (AINS.N0000) Fri Oct 18, 2019 9:43 pm

mihiri84

Stock Trader

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AAABoy wrote:AINS is possibly the cheapest share in Insurance sector currently trading at Rs. 15.00/-, Company shows strong growth YOY and expecting to do better as they are already expanding their branches

-This company has only 3% free float
-Last few days this share begun to be active and I think there is a collection going in prior to a bull run

I think we need to have a discussion on this stock

nice article.go ahead..

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abey · 35 ARPICO INSURANSE Mon Oct 21, 2019 7:30 pm

abey

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short term target price?

Teller · 36 Re: ARPICO INSURANCE PLC (AINS.N0000) Mon Oct 21, 2019 7:40 pm

Teller

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Compare to industry and peer to peer, this company is really over value. As major share holders are
Holding the share in high percentage, its look group own stock brokering unit manipulates the price. Real value is around 15 LKR or below

abey · 37 ARPICO INSURANSE Wed Oct 23, 2019 6:24 pm

abey

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watch AINS N Very Happy

Vasyan · 38 AINS someone sold at 21/= Mon Jun 07, 2021 5:47 pm

Vasyan

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AINS someone sold at 21/= but it is a good price to buy? AINS follow with PINS when they start to pay a dividend. 21/ is discounted price for that easy to go beyond 25/=

Vasyan · 39 Re: ARPICO INSURANCE PLC (AINS.N0000) Wed Jul 07, 2021 3:56 am

Vasyan

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keep eye on AINS . Insurance company lowest price stock and profit-making continuously

if they are starting to pay dividends then AINS will fly. easy go 30/= very illiquid stock.

BEST STOCK TO BUY AT THIS LEVEL