The IMF's Monumental Malpractices and future of Sri Lanka

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The IMF's Monumental Malpractices and future of Sri Lanka Fe74yy10

For decades, the International Monetary Fund has been the scourge of countries that get into economic trouble, yet its authority has never been seriously challenged. Today, this is especially dangerous. The deadly combination of inflation and food shortages is putting numerous nations on the brink of disaster. A few, most notably Sri Lanka, are already in chaos.

All too many countries are particularly vulnerable because they loaded themselves with debt during the easy-money years following the 2008-09 financial crisis, when interest rates were virtually nonexistent. Now, with the cost of money rising and open-ended central bank ATMs closing, scores of these governments will be hard-pressed to service their debts. For a number of poorer nations this means not only will the paltry incomes of people already living in real poverty shrink, but there will also be outright hunger, if not famine—a dire situation made worse by the deadly food games Vladimir Putin is playing with Ukraine’s critical grain exports.

What’s disturbing is that the amount of money these countries owe is unknown. China has lent prodigious amounts to a number of nations, but transparency here is hardly robust.

The IMF is supposed to be the economic doctor to which countries turn when they get into trouble. IMF teams fly into stricken nations and “negotiate” (in the Tony Soprano sense of the word) the terms for governments to receive bailout money. The problem is that the IMF is guilty of economic quackery on a global scale. The IMF’s foremost demand is that a country devalue its currency, yet making a currency less valuable is the very definition of inflation. It’s like telling someone who has pneumonia to go sit in the snow.

The IMF thinks the cure for inflation is to make people poorer; therefore, it forces countries to raise taxes. The agency also orders the removal of politically popular subsidies—usually for certain foods and fuel. In principle, this is fine, but the IMF’s timing is dreadful. People living mostly on the margins see their life supports disappearing, and riots result.

The IMF should, instead, be prescribing what economist Nathan Lewis dubs “The Magic Formula”: low tax rates and stable money. This combination always works. Instead of devaluations, countries should adopt currency boards, whereby their money is fixed to a reliable currency such as the Swiss franc. Currency boards unfailingly stop inflation in its tracks.

Yet the IMF’s record of cockeyed, counterproductive remedies has yet to provoke a serious challenge from its major donors, primarily the United States.

With so many countries in desperate straits, this chronic malfeasance will provoke destructive turmoil and lead to unnecessary death. True, the countries to which the IMF ministers are usually guilty of reckless spending and too much government control of their economies. But that doesn’t warrant administering patently harmful medicines to them.

Take perennially mismanaged Pakistan, which just negotiated an IMF rescue package. True to form, the IMF imposed higher taxes and the elimination of fuel subsidies, and riots rocked the country.

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Steve Forbes

Steve Forbes is Chairman and Editor-in-Chief of Forbes Media. Steve’s newest project is the podcast “What’s Ahead,” where he engages the world’s top newsmakers, politicians and pioneers... Read More

https://www.forbes.com/sites/steveforbes/2022/09/27/the-imfs-monumental-malpractice/?sh=63db72a3169f

Fri Oct 14, 2022 6:42 pm by CHRONICLE™ · Fri Oct 14, 2022 6:42 pm by CHRONICLE™

Even President and PM are prohibited to speak on IMF -Sri Lanka debt restructuring Initiative!

According to a circular circulating in social media, Ministry of Finance, Economic Stabilization and National Policies has prohibited even President and Prime Minister to speak about the IMF -Sri Lanka debt restructuring Initiative.

The circular has been issued on 26 September 2022.

It says that IMF and Sri Lanka reached a staff level agreement on four year support programme on 2.9 million dollars on 01.09.2022.

The 3 page circular has been singed by K.M. Mahinda Siriwardana, secretary to the Ministry of Finance, Economic Stabilization and National Policies.

It says the only authority that can issue any information on IMF -Sri Lanka debt restructuring Initiative is the Ministry of Finance, Economic Stabilization and National Policies.

https://srilankabrief.org/even-president-and-pm-are-prohibited-to-speak-on-imf-sri-lanka-debt-restructuring-initiative/

Wed Oct 19, 2022 7:47 am by CHRONICLE™ · Wed Oct 19, 2022 7:47 am by CHRONICLE™

[size=33]The politics of IMF[/size]
By Dharshana Kasthurirathna

Recently, it was reported in the media that IMF’s Senior Mission Chair Peter Breuer told the reporters in Colombo on 1 October that Sri Lanka needs a government with mandate to carry out the reforms

The IMF's Monumental Malpractices and future of Sri Lanka Image_16585d21b6

IMF Senior Mission

Chair Peter Breuer

The IMF's Monumental Malpractices and future of Sri Lanka Image_5020484170

Central Bank Governor

Dr. Nandalal Weerasinghe

recommended by the IMF under the proposed bailout program. Sri Lanka might well need an election to dilute the political instability but isn’t this a direct interference of the politics of a sovereign member country, and overstepping the boundaries of the IMF?

Even if an election is held, it is highly unlikely that a rigorous discussion on the proposed IMF demands will take the centre stage of the political discourse leading to the election. At best, all that a national election may achieve is to give the false pretence of a public mandate to carry out the proposed reforms.

Some of the recent IMF interventions in Greece and Argentina have been counter-productive in terms of economic recovery. IMF’s own internal reports allude to this fact. The internal report published in IMF’s website under the title “Argentina: Ex-Post Evaluation of Exceptional Access Under the 2018 Stand-By Arrangement-Press Release and Staff Report” conclude that the IMF program contributed to “arguably worsening capital flight rather than boosting confidence” and “did not fulfil the objectives of restoring confidence in fiscal and external viability while fostering economic growth”. This report was produced following a study by the IMF in relation to the 2018 bailout agreement with Argentina, which was the largest bailout package in IMF’s history. It amounted to $ 57 billion and was the 21st bailout agreement that the IMF had with Argentina (recently Argentina received the 22nd bailout package, following the failure of the 21st one).

A similar scenario played out in Greece following the 2010 bailout program, which was worth $ 145 billion. In a report published by IMF titled “Greece: Ex Post Evaluation of Exceptional Access under the 2010 Stand-By Arrangement”, IMF admits it bent its own rules on debt sustainability to go ahead with the program and its forecasts following the bailout program on the economic growth, poverty and unemployment due to the austerity measures were ‘too optimistic’. In other words, what actually played out in Greece was much worse than the IMF predicted, which led to political unrest, relentless public protests, destabilisation of the banking system and mass poverty and unemployment.

It is with this background that we have to look at the current austerity measures that are proposed, and perhaps unofficially already have been or are being implemented, under the blessings of the IMF. In this meeting with the reporters, the IMF Mission Chair apparently did disclose some of the key points in the proposed reforms. Overall, they do not look very different from the IMF template that was followed by Greece and Argentina and many other IMF bailout programs throughout its history.

One of the key recommendations is to cut-off the fuel and electricity subsidies to reduce government spending. However, another recommendation mentioned was to introduce a ‘safety-net’ for those who will be suffering due to the ongoing crisis. Wouldn’t these ‘handouts’ increase government spending, just on a different front and further increase inflation that is beyond control? It has to be noted that fuel and electricity subsidies (actually this recommendation seems to be already implemented by the current administration, which raises doubts on an ‘unofficial agreement’) are indirect subsidies and that they particularly assist the small and medium scale industries and the agricultural and fisheries sectors. Sri Lanka is facing a food crisis and the removal of fuel subsidies have aggravated this problem by the massive blow that it has had on the agricultural and fisheries sectors.

Another recommendation that is proposed is to provide more ‘autonomy’ to the Central Bank through legal reforms. There’s no argument that the Central Bank’s misregulation of the fiscal market has been a key factor that led to the current crisis. However, making it more ‘autonomous’ may actually worsen the issue as even if it is present, it seems to be lacking in proper oversight and accountability. For instance, the Central Bank appointed “Lazard” as an advisor for debt negotiation. Lazard has obvious conflicts of interests in carrying out this task, as it’s also engaged in equity management.

Further, some of the institutional investors of Lazard include major International creditors such as Blackrock, for all we know may also be holding on to Sri Lankan bonds through its subsidiaries. Actually, the organisations that are holding on the Sri Lankan bonds appear to be a closely guarded secret, which goes against the principle of fiscal transparency that the IMF publicly champions.

Further, the Central Bank has refused to accept ‘Mir’, the Russian payment system, citing that the US has imposed sanctions on Russia. Should such a decision be in the hands of some unelected official at the Central Bank? Sri Lanka is struggling due to an energy crisis and many countries in the world, including some European countries, still trade with Russia, particularly in the energy sector. Examples like these make it evident that what the Central Bank is currently lacking is not autonomy, but accountability and transparency. It should come under the purview of the parliament that is the main body that has the responsibility of providing fiscal oversight. Without such accountability and transparency, the Central Bank could get reduced to a mere national branch of the internal organisations such as the IMF and World Bank.

Another recommendation that the IMF has put forth is to introduce a progressive income tax (or rather increase the rates of progressive income tax) and to further increase the corporate tax levels. In reality, businesses in the country are struggling due to high interest rates, import controls, energy crisis, high inflation and the skilled labour market that is fleeing the country in record numbers. In the current economic climate, imposing more direct taxes could very well drive away the remaining investors and the more experienced and skilled labour force out of the country. It could even lead to lesser tax revenue in the long run as the spending power of the higher income earners that is already degraded due to high inflation, degrades further.

The economy could further contract, shooting up unemployment and poverty rates even further. These were the observations in Greece and Argentina following the austerity measures, and it’s quite possible these tax reforms may actually be counterproductive in Sri Lanka as well. It is not clear whether these complexities were taken into account by the IMF in making these recommendations, or whether these reforms are introduced to make the international creditors happy that they have a better chance of recovering their loans.

The reality is that the IMF has to please two sides, and one of those sides is the international creditors. Moreover, the IMF is not a truly apolitical organisation whose sole mission is to provide economic relief. For instance, USA has the sole veto power regarding all of IMF’s decisions and thus it is unavoidable that its foreign policy may influence IMF’s operations. Sri Lanka’s current economic mess has compelled it to seek IMF’s assistance but at the very least, Sri Lanka deserves experts who can negotiate for her own interests, without blindly following IMF’s recommendations to the letter.

Current Central Bank governor has worked for the IMF during his professional career and Dr. Indrajit Coomaraswamy, who heads the debt restructuring committee has worked closely with organisations such as the IMF, World Bank and ADB throughout his career. Their very backgrounds may actually lead to group-think and tunnel-vision when it comes to IMF bailout programs. Examples from Greece and Argentina make it evident that we need a better team at the negotiation table that will actually do the act of ‘negotiating’.
(The writer is a Senior Lecturer in Computer Science.)
https://www.ft.lk/opinion/The-politics-of-IMF/14-741096

Sun Dec 25, 2022 8:00 pm by **God Father** · Sun Dec 25, 2022 8:00 pm by **God Father**

The objectives of the contemplated IMF program are:

o An ambitious primarily revenue-based fiscal consolidation, accompanied by fiscal institutional reforms and cost-recovery based energy pricing, aimed at restoring fiscal sustainability and strengthening fiscal discipline
o A stronger social safety net to protect the most vulnerable
o A public debt management strategy aimed at restoring public debt sustainability
o A multipronged strategy to restore price stability and rebuild international reserves under greater exchange rate flexibility o Commitment to greater central bank independence and to phase out monetary financing
o Policies to safeguard financial system stability
o Focused reforms to address governance and corruption vulnerabilities
o Broader structural reforms to unlock SriLanka’s growth potential

https://www.treasury.gov.lk/api/file/3816b192-2bd9-4587-9c69-53e54a3394de

Tue Dec 27, 2022 3:15 pm by **God Father** · Tue Dec 27, 2022 3:15 pm by **God Father**

Considerable history suggests that achieving price stability and a sustain- able external position are important for being able to sustain growth. Countries like Turkey, which for many years before 2000 experienced high inflation, had trouble keeping growth rates high so long as prices were elevated.

In the case of Turkey, a few years of moderate (3–5 percent) real growth was frequently followed by an economic collapse, as the failure of the exchange rate to offset inflation led to a loss of competitiveness and an inabil- ity to finance imports and external debt.

Similarly Romania, where inflation exceeded 300 percent early in the 1990s, experienced poor growth until infla- tion fell to more reasonable levels. More generally, many researchers have found that, above a minimum level (perhaps 1–3 percent for advanced economies and somewhat higher rates for developing and emerging market countries), higher inflation corresponds with lower growth rates.3 One reason may be that higher inflation discourages private investment, encourages inefficient activities aimed at preserving the value of financial assets, and promotes capital flight to other economies with less inflation or a shift in assets to more stable currencies. As for external stability, balance of pay- ments crises have imposed huge economic losses on many countries at all levels of economic development.

In Asia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and the Republic of Korea all suffered major declines in real GDP during 1998 because of large capital outflows (although Korea’s situation stabilized within a year after short-term loans were renewed). Real GDP fell nearly 11 percent in Argentina during 2002 after continuing fiscal imbalances and an end to International Monetary Fund (IMF) support forced the country to abandon pegging its exchange rate to the U.S. dollar. In 2009 Iceland’s real GDP fell nearly 7 percent, as huge losses in the banking sector triggered a collapse in the krona and a sharp decline in real imports and consumption.

Most economies aiming to curb inflation or reduce the deficit in the current account of the balance of payments make tightening fiscal policy — reducing the government’s budget deficit — part of the policy response. In many economies cutting expenditure is a key part of tightening fiscal policy. Economists usually advocate cutting so-called “unproduc- tive” expenditure — outlays whose benefits are small relative to their costs. However, political concerns often lead economies to sacrifice valu- able spending, such as outlays for operations and maintenance, rather than reducing public employment, cutting subsidies, or scaling back inefficient but politically useful capital projects.

In some economies, fiscal consolida- tion also includes measures to raise revenues. Such measures are particu- larly valuable in countries where the ratio of revenues to GDP is very low — under 15 percent — and the government has difficulty finding enough revenue to fund basic services, such as public education and the provision of infrastructure. Although revenue raising measures usually involve increasing taxes, in some economies efforts to raise non-tax revenues, for example, by making state enterprises more efficient and prof- itable, can be useful. Measures to improve tax administration and increase compliance with the law can also help, although it is often difficult esti- mating how much revenue such measures can generate. .

https://www.worldscientific.com/doi/pdf/10.1142/9789813223837_0001