CFLB and LCEY Results out

Slstock · 1 CFLB and LCEY Results out Mon Feb 14, 2011 5:31 pm

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As expected LCEY Performed very well this quarter. EPS 23

CFLB benefited but does not show the exhorbitant results people expected. Eps 11.83

http://www.cse.lk/cmt/upload_report_file/497_1297674897479..%202010.PDF
http://www.cse.lk/cmt/upload_report_file/504_1297677052538.12.10%20CFLB.pdf

These are not listed noted on CSE as yet. My energy brought me across the reports

Last edited by Quibit on Tue Feb 15, 2011 1:08 pm; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : format condensed)

tubal · 2 Re: CFLB and LCEY Results out Mon Feb 14, 2011 5:34 pm

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Shucks slstock, you have beaten me to it!
I posted a reply in another thread, asking whether the price rise is in keeping with the growth.

(no point in comparing the nine month figure, that's made up of two quarter that have been fully discounted into the market price by Jan 1, when CFLB started it's rocket propelled climb)

Slstock · 3 Re: CFLB and LCEY Results out Mon Feb 14, 2011 6:03 pm

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tubal wrote:Shucks slstock, you have beaten me to it!
I posted a reply in another thread, asking whether the price rise is in keeping with the growth.

(no point in comparing the nine month figure, that's made up of two quarter that have been fully discounted into the market price by Jan 1, when CFLB started it's rocket propelled climb)

Well CARS and BUKI seems to be worse

mono · 4 Re: CFLB and LCEY Results out Mon Feb 14, 2011 6:11 pm

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LCEY results are pretty impressive even with the minority interest. I think LCEY can easily trade at around 550-600 range.

Slstock · 5 Re: CFLB and LCEY Results out Mon Feb 14, 2011 6:15 pm

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mono wrote:LCEY results are pretty impressive even with the minority interest. I think LCEY can easily trade at around 550-600 range.

Yes it is. Pity I sold my shares. Just have 200 left. But I get a feeling that we might get another opportunity in the near future.

mono · 6 Re: CFLB and LCEY Results out Mon Feb 14, 2011 6:21 pm

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slstock wrote:

mono wrote:LCEY results are pretty impressive even with the minority interest. I think LCEY can easily trade at around 550-600 range.

Yes it is. Pity I sold my shares. Just have 200 left. But I get a feeling that we might get another opportunity in the near future.

wait....

don't buy now. we'll wait for people to take profits and for retailers to get desperate at lower prices Twisted Evil

tubal · 7 Re: CFLB and LCEY Results out Mon Feb 14, 2011 6:26 pm

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The results taken in isolation seem pretty impressive. You are dead right about that.

However when compared with the percentage increase in the price of these shares since January one. They are very disappointing.

Slstock · 8 Re: CFLB and LCEY Results out Mon Feb 14, 2011 6:27 pm

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mono wrote:

slstock wrote:

mono wrote:LCEY results are pretty impressive even with the minority interest. I think LCEY can easily trade at around 550-600 range.

Yes it is. Pity I sold my shares. Just have 200 left. But I get a feeling that we might get another opportunity in the near future.

wait....

don't buy now. we'll wait for people to take profits and for retailers to get desperate at lower prices

Yes Mono that what I hinted "But I get a feeling that we might get another opportunity in the near future" ;-)

mono · 9 Re: CFLB and LCEY Results out Mon Feb 14, 2011 6:32 pm

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tubal wrote:The results taken in isolation seem pretty impressive. You are dead right about that.

However when compared with the percentage increase in the price of these shares since January one. They are very disappointing.

you can make that argument for CFLB, but not for LCEY.

nonstop · 10 Re: CFLB and LCEY Results out Mon Feb 14, 2011 6:51 pm

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I agree with Mono. This is over 600 % q over q growth. I wont be surprised if we see a carsons group kind of day with LCEY tomorrow. This is the type of earning report I wish I could see for some of the shares I hold :-(

Well done to those who hold the share.

tubal · 11 Re: CFLB and LCEY Results out Mon Feb 14, 2011 7:00 pm

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Ok, I will concede the point about LCEY. But every single share in this group went up. Most noticably CFLB. Only LCEY has got results that have lived upto the hype.

(please note, I am not saying CFLB interims are bad, they are very good. I am just saying the dramatic share price appreciations do not quite match the results in most cases).

dinusl · 12 Re: CFLB and LCEY Results out Mon Feb 14, 2011 7:16 pm

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Personally I have also planned to collect some CFLB to extend my portfolio..Tomorrow quick drop can be expected as what we saw today..Any Idea ?

nonstop · 13 Re: CFLB and LCEY Results out Mon Feb 14, 2011 7:45 pm

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I hope people don’t annualize this quarters results. The company’s earnings are quite seasonal. If you look at the earnings from a year ago, it was 11 or 12 for the quarter and last quarter was around 3. There is growth but for sure but I think I got a bit too excited when I saw the 600% q over q growth. If you include this quarter and try a quick and dirty analysis for the next 3 quarters by doubling the prior years earnings, you will come up with about a 50 rupee earnings and when you take out minority interest its about 32.5. On 32.5 the share is currently trading at around 13 times earnings which is not expensive at the CSE. However, it is not as attractive as I initial thought it was. Having said that, I recognize that there is definitely some value but I may not join the band wagon at this point, especially because the market will be bloody tomorrow with these CARS company results. Disclosure: you can never be too sure about how the CSE reacts so I wont be surprised if this fly’s tomorrow morning. Be careful though people; have a look at the historical price and remember that this share fluctuates a lot. Hopefully, some maybe able to ride a run if it happens without getting burnt.

tubal · 14 Re: CFLB and LCEY Results out Mon Feb 14, 2011 7:53 pm

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nonstop, if it's seasonal, the YoY figures shouldn't change by much. If there is a change, the change should be positive. Well that's what the palm oil/rubber fans were saying. The high prices should lead to better revenue. However as Rajitha pointed out, (YoY) lower production lead to those higher prices, and lower production in turn lead to YoY decline.

hasi84 · 15 Re: CFLB and LCEY Results out Mon Feb 14, 2011 7:59 pm

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nonstop wrote:I agree with Mono. This is over 600 % q over q growth. I wont be surprised if we see a carsons group kind of day with LCEY tomorrow. This is the type of earning report I wish I could see for some of the shares I hold :-(

Well done to those who hold the share.

If you going to look at qoq growth its best you strip out the chemical segment from PBT: as we all know the profits coming through the chemical segment is seasonal and December q is the most profitable since it coincides with the Maha Paddy season.
If you look at the segmental profits you see that majority of the profits come through the plantation segment: we need to calculate the profits of Kota and Agrapathana (CWM to an extent too) attributable to LCEY in the next few quarters. This will enable us to project the future earnings.
But as we know plantation companies trade at a low multiple due to the various risk factors involved: in the same way I'm of the view that diversified holdings such as RICH and LCEY with majority of earnings coming through plantations should trade at a PE multiple lesser than the market average.

ruwa925 · 16 Re: CFLB and LCEY Results out Mon Feb 14, 2011 8:06 pm

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will there be share split on CFLB & LCEY? What do you think guys

nonstop · 17 Re: CFLB and LCEY Results out Mon Feb 14, 2011 8:10 pm

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Hasi, I got a little excited there buddy with my rant about a 600% q over q growth. Pls see my follow up post after that.

Tubal, It’s seasonal and you can see that if you look at historical reports and as Hasi ahs pointed out why exactly, but in my quick and dirty analysis, I have considered a 100 growth year (positive as you mentioned but no basis to where I got the 100% from)

mono · 18 Re: CFLB and LCEY Results out Mon Feb 14, 2011 8:18 pm

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hello nonstop. nice to see u over here.

nonstop · 19 Re: CFLB and LCEY Results out Mon Feb 14, 2011 8:24 pm

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Likewise big guy. I wasnt aware of this forum. Was missing having these chats :-)

tubal · 20 Re: CFLB and LCEY Results out Mon Feb 14, 2011 8:24 pm

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nonstop wrote:Hasi, I got a little excited there buddy with my rant about a 600% q over q growth. Pls see my follow up post after that.

Tubal, It’s seasonal and you can see that if you look at historical reports and as Hasi ahs pointed out why exactly, but in my quick and dirty analysis, I have considered a 100 growth year (positive as you mentioned but no basis to where I got the 100% from)

Nonstop, perhaps my post wasn't very clear either. What I meant was that if it's seasonal, you cannot compare q1 against q2 and q2 against q3 etc without making adjustments for seasonality.

however you can compare q3 2010 with q3 2009. If the profits are growing, q3 2010 should be higher than q3 2009 - clearly that has not happened.

nonstop · 21 Re: CFLB and LCEY Results out Mon Feb 14, 2011 8:34 pm

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Tubal,

I guess I was not making myself clear and rushing through with my post. Still at work and trying to avoid the boss while responding.

I was responding as an update to my initial post where I got my panty’s (oops, maybe that’s not allowed here…no offense to anyone) in a bunch about a 600% q over q growth. I looked a little more in detail and quickly realized that it wasn’t as exciting as I though it was initially. Then I did a quick analysis by doubling the relating quarter in prior year (100% as this quarter was around 100% from PY) for the next three quarters to do a quick projection. Then I took out minority interest and figured that this share is trading at around 13 times forward. Again, please don’t go buy any of this. Just sharing my thoughts on how I calmed down pretty quickly about these results 

tubal · 22 Re: CFLB and LCEY Results out Mon Feb 14, 2011 9:42 pm

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nonstop thanks for the clarification. I think I got my CFLB/LCEY , BUKI/CARS threads mixed up as well.

Last edited by tubal on Mon Feb 14, 2011 9:46 pm; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : making too many mistakes. Need coffee)

$$$ · 23 Re: CFLB and LCEY Results out Mon Feb 14, 2011 11:46 pm

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Hi Non Stop,

No worries mate you are allowed to get your " Fabric that covers the most Intimate arreas " in a bunch.

It's discussing the CSE and more importantly we are in an investment forum. Bunching and twisting are allowed in this fast paced highly stressful environment.

Oh before I forget yes LCEY has exceeded expectations and CFLB is on course. As for the Oil well palms will be on fire Sad

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CFLB and LCEY Results out

1 CFLB and LCEY Results out Mon Feb 14, 2011 5:31 pm

Slstock

2 Re: CFLB and LCEY Results out Mon Feb 14, 2011 5:34 pm

tubal

3 Re: CFLB and LCEY Results out Mon Feb 14, 2011 6:03 pm

Slstock

4 Re: CFLB and LCEY Results out Mon Feb 14, 2011 6:11 pm

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5 Re: CFLB and LCEY Results out Mon Feb 14, 2011 6:15 pm

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6 Re: CFLB and LCEY Results out Mon Feb 14, 2011 6:21 pm

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7 Re: CFLB and LCEY Results out Mon Feb 14, 2011 6:26 pm

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8 Re: CFLB and LCEY Results out Mon Feb 14, 2011 6:27 pm

Slstock

9 Re: CFLB and LCEY Results out Mon Feb 14, 2011 6:32 pm

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10 Re: CFLB and LCEY Results out Mon Feb 14, 2011 6:51 pm

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11 Re: CFLB and LCEY Results out Mon Feb 14, 2011 7:00 pm

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12 Re: CFLB and LCEY Results out Mon Feb 14, 2011 7:16 pm

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13 Re: CFLB and LCEY Results out Mon Feb 14, 2011 7:45 pm

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14 Re: CFLB and LCEY Results out Mon Feb 14, 2011 7:53 pm

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15 Re: CFLB and LCEY Results out Mon Feb 14, 2011 7:59 pm

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16 Re: CFLB and LCEY Results out Mon Feb 14, 2011 8:06 pm

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17 Re: CFLB and LCEY Results out Mon Feb 14, 2011 8:10 pm

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18 Re: CFLB and LCEY Results out Mon Feb 14, 2011 8:18 pm

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19 Re: CFLB and LCEY Results out Mon Feb 14, 2011 8:24 pm

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20 Re: CFLB and LCEY Results out Mon Feb 14, 2011 8:24 pm

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21 Re: CFLB and LCEY Results out Mon Feb 14, 2011 8:34 pm

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22 Re: CFLB and LCEY Results out Mon Feb 14, 2011 9:42 pm

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23 Re: CFLB and LCEY Results out Mon Feb 14, 2011 11:46 pm

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