COCR is it Jem ??

laka · 1 COCR is it Jem ?? Wed Sep 21, 2011 12:59 pm

laka

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Heard people say that Commercial Credit is highly under valued with lower PER and probable to hit 70 fundamentally..I think they are misleaded looking their Introductory document prepared before sub division. According to their strategic plan published few days ago they intend to record 1457% of increase in Pre Tax Profit for the year ending 2011 compared to 31 March 2010. Lets see wheather it is a undervalued share... bounce

Accordingly last year their loss before Tax is 25m and if it is increased by 1457% , their PBT should be 364 m. No of shares about 218m and that means their EPS based on Pre tax Profit is 1.66. If reduce Tax then EPS would be around Rs1... Twisted Evil

Counter is now trading @ more than 20 PER .... Bit over valued... pale

Comments are welcome...

ABEST · 2 Re: COCR is it Jem ?? Wed Sep 21, 2011 1:10 pm

ABEST

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brother, my kindly request that pls search before post your own topics

http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t10364-cocr-forget-about-three-year-plans-lets-look-at-this-year?highlight=cocr

laka · 3 Re: COCR is it Jem ?? Wed Sep 21, 2011 1:56 pm

laka

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ABEST wrote:brother, my kindly request that pls search before post your own topics

http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t10364-cocr-forget-about-three-year-plans-lets-look-at-this-year?highlight=cocr

I have already read your CSE announcement.. But my kindly request that pls read before you comment on others post... This is a small analysis with figures rather than discussion.

kama · 4 Re: COCR is it Jem ?? Wed Sep 21, 2011 1:59 pm

kama

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@ laka

Very clear Analysis.. Thanks for your EPS calculation

hariesha · 5 Re: COCR is it Jem ?? Wed Sep 21, 2011 2:10 pm

hariesha

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Yes. It's a hidden gem. If we are making decisions on history, yes, may be overvalued, a little bit. 364M for the year means EPS of 1.67 and a PER of 18. But for the June quarter they have made 192M, which gives a min. EPS of 3.52 for 2012FY. So, COCR is trading at FWD PER of 8.8x. Why REG,UML,COLO is going up, on expectations of best ever Q2 results on October. At the launch of strategic plan, they clearly said that Q2 2012 is better than Q1. Even today there is a good collection going on. More than 350,000 traded.

gamaya · 6 Re: COCR is it Jem ?? Wed Sep 21, 2011 3:53 pm

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Interestingly 2 directors have sold 2 million shares on 1st of June. Maybe before they thought of this strategic plan?

http://www.cse.lk/cmt/uploadAnnounceFiles/3111306997596_1063.pdf

laka · 7 Re: COCR is it Jem ?? Wed Sep 21, 2011 4:20 pm

laka

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hariesha wrote:Yes. It's a hidden gem. If we are making decisions on history, yes, may be overvalued, a little bit. 364M for the year means EPS of 1.67 and a PER of 18. But for the June quarter they have made 192M, which gives a min. EPS of 3.52 for 2012FY. So, COCR is trading at FWD PER of 8.8x. Why REG,UML,COLO is going up, on expectations of best ever Q2 results on October. At the launch of strategic plan, they clearly said that Q2 2012 is better than Q1. Even today there is a good collection going on. More than 350,000 traded.

Oki. Lets think June Qtr PBT 192M. Then Annualized PBT is 768M and Tax Rate is 35% .
So PAT is 500 M then FWD EPS is Rs 2.28...... Fwd PER 13.5 if price 31.

As i know COMB's Fwd PER about 10 and LFIN's about 7....But COCR's 13.5

PGCR · 8 Re: COCR is it Jem ?? Wed Sep 21, 2011 4:50 pm

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laka wrote:

hariesha wrote:Yes. It's a hidden gem. If we are making decisions on history, yes, may be overvalued, a little bit. 364M for the year means EPS of 1.67 and a PER of 18. But for the June quarter they have made 192M, which gives a min. EPS of 3.52 for 2012FY. So, COCR is trading at FWD PER of 8.8x. Why REG,UML,COLO is going up, on expectations of best ever Q2 results on October. At the launch of strategic plan, they clearly said that Q2 2012 is better than Q1. Even today there is a good collection going on. More than 350,000 traded.

Oki. Lets think June Qtr PBT 192M. Then Annualized PBT is 768M and Tax Rate is 35% .
So PAT is 500 M then FWD EPS is Rs 2.28...... Fwd PER 13.5 if price 31.

As i know COMB's Fwd PER about 10 and LFIN's about 7....But COCR's 13.5

Agreed with you on after tax Calculation.

But, Remember 35% tax rate is not applicable to companies hereafter.
Current Corporate tax rate is 28%.
Other than that Effective tax rate can be even less than 28%, since Companies are not calculating there TAX Payable amount by just multiplying PBT by Tax Rate.

Furthermore since COCR is a Finance Co, the VAT on Financial Services also has been Reduced to 12% from 20%. Both Benefits are yet to be delivered & adjusted to P&L.

For your annualized EPS calculation you have not consider any Quarter to Quarter growth. Which I cannot agree.

PS: Just to Correct you & not to promote.

laka · 9 Re: COCR is it Jem ?? Wed Sep 21, 2011 5:15 pm

laka

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@PGCR -

I just calculated Taxation since PAT is highly depends on Differed Taxation for COCR rather than other taxations you have mentioned. So I hope high taxation Exp for this time since last year they have Tax Gain (refer page 77 and 81 of introductory Document). So Fwd EPS should be maximum Rs 2.6

I dought why they have mentioned about PBT rather than PAT... Think...

gann · 10 Re: COCR is it Jem ?? Wed Sep 21, 2011 5:37 pm

gann

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All I can say is, COCR has been in gradual uptrend for some time. That's the cumulative result of all said and done. You do not need to know all the nitty gritty to make a buck. lol!

lankasecguru · 11 Re: COCR is it Jem ?? Mon Sep 26, 2011 11:28 am

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Guys great news.

The auditors have finalized the audit and they will most probably be posting to CSE on the second week of October.

They have made a thumping profit it seems, touching a RS. 800mn mark only for this quarter. BTW i don't know whether this is true or not.

Just see to this counter, because this can be the next Multi -Finance.

The choice is yours and yours alone.

Good luck.