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Why do people average?

+13
bakapandithaya
pathfinder
nkalansu
SL.Market
Antonym
sachithgh
rmark
zen
Deva
Investor99
NimeshaJK
Universalgoal
LankanBusiness
17 posters

Go down  Message [Page 1 of 1]

1Why do people average? Empty Why do people average? Wed Sep 28, 2011 2:44 pm

LankanBusiness


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic

I noticed that some people buy more shares of a stock in their portfolio whose price has fallen drastically This process is called “averaging” – on the face of it this may look like a foolish thing to do

This process has been adopted by many “professional” portfolio managers to reduce the true impact of loses by reducing the average cost per share shown in the portfolio.
Averaging should only be resorted to where you are 100% sure that the share price will climb higher than the average cost within a short term and also yield a significant profit per share.

Why you shouldn’t average:
1. Any steep decline in price usually indicates a permanent drop in value of the stock - don’t invest any more money in a losing stock
2. High risk – shares that you will need to average are typically high risk shares with a mediocre return even in the best of situations
3. It is always better to absorb loses immediately and go onto high ROE shares with good risk profiles – the sooner you divest and re-invest your portfolio ROE will improve

Remember that even if you achieve breakeven on averaging - your personal ROE on sale of those shares will still be 0%

http://www.lankanbusiness.com

2Why do people average? Empty Re: Why do people average? Wed Sep 28, 2011 2:55 pm

Universalgoal


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

wow good one well done, appriciate your view 100% accurate

3Why do people average? Empty Re: Why do people average? Wed Sep 28, 2011 3:02 pm

NimeshaJK

NimeshaJK
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

true.. 100% agreed.. Very Happy

http://njkentertainment.freeforums.org/index.php

4Why do people average? Empty Re: Why do people average? Wed Sep 28, 2011 3:17 pm

Investor99


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

In my opinion most investors average their portfolios and if you can hold shares for the medium to long term averaging should work in your favour. But one point to keep in mind is that this method would work best for fundamentally strong counters.

5Why do people average? Empty Re: Why do people average? Wed Sep 28, 2011 4:08 pm

Deva


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

Investor99 wrote:In my opinion most investors average their portfolios and if you can hold shares for the medium to long term averaging should work in your favour. But one point to keep in mind is that this method would work best for fundamentally strong counters.

Good points by LankanBusiness, but as Investor99 says it's best for fundamentally strong counters.

6Why do people average? Empty Re: Why do people average? Wed Sep 28, 2011 4:15 pm

zen

zen
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

It's just book keeping to fool yourself. If you buy 100@10 and another 100@8, your average will be 9. If you sell at 9.50, you make 100@.50 loss and a 100@1.50 profit.
Calling it a Rs.100 profit is wrong. It's just one wrong purchase which results in 50 loss which you don't like to admit and a correct purcase which made a 150 profit, which you use to cover the loss.



Last edited by zen on Wed Sep 28, 2011 9:13 pm; edited 2 times in total

7Why do people average? Empty Re: Why do people average? Wed Sep 28, 2011 4:16 pm

rmark

rmark
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

Dear LankanBusiness,
Agreed. Thank you for sharing.

8Why do people average? Empty Re: Why do people average? Wed Sep 28, 2011 4:33 pm

sachithgh

sachithgh
Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic

lankabusiness i also agree with you thank you for sharing with us

9Why do people average? Empty Re: Why do people average? Wed Sep 28, 2011 4:39 pm

Antonym

Antonym
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics

LankanBusiness wrote:I noticed that some people buy more shares of a stock in their portfolio whose price has fallen drastically This process is called “averaging” – on the face of it this may look like a foolish thing to do...
Buying shares merely for the purpose of 'averaging' is a foolish thing to do. Averaging only brings down your percentage loss and provides a probably misplaced sense of security.

The decision to buy a particular share is normally determined by one's expectation of magnitude of price increase over a period of time. Just because you hold Share X (which has fallen drastically) does not mean that it will appreciate more or faster than Shares Y or Z. It is your psychological/ emotional attachment to share X and fear of large percentage losses that makes you want to 'average'.

Prior to each purchase decision, you need to re-evaluate all available buying options: X, Y and Z. Remember that future direction is not determined by the price at which you bought. If you still think Share X has the greatest potential for increase, buy it - and call it averaging, if you must. Else, buy Y or Z.

10Why do people average? Empty Re: Why do people average? Wed Sep 28, 2011 4:56 pm

SL.Market

SL.Market
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics

I never do avaraging.. What I do Is....

Buy X share at 100@100.. then dop?
again 90 level.... 100@90 Then up 96? sell 100@96...
wait and see ... again drop 90? then again buy and sell 96..

If this do 2 time you will end up with profit...Dont think initial buying try to recover it with some more buying

Reemember..

Don't do Credit Trading and Buy 50% of investment

Good Luck

11Why do people average? Empty Re: Why do people average? Wed Sep 28, 2011 7:40 pm

nkalansu


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

LankanBusiness wrote:I noticed that some people buy more shares of a stock in their portfolio whose price has fallen drastically This process is called “averaging” – on the face of it this may look like a foolish thing to do

This process has been adopted by many “professional” portfolio managers to reduce the true impact of loses by reducing the average cost per share shown in the portfolio.
Averaging should only be resorted to where you are 100% sure that the share price will climb higher than the average cost within a short term and also yield a significant profit per share.

Why you shouldn’t average:
1. Any steep decline in price usually indicates a permanent drop in value of the stock - don’t invest any more money in a losing stock
2. High risk – shares that you will need to average are typically high risk shares with a mediocre return even in the best of situations
3. It is always better to absorb loses immediately and go onto high ROE shares with good risk profiles – the sooner you divest and re-invest your portfolio ROE will improve

Remember that even if you achieve breakeven on averaging - your personal ROE on sale of those shares will still be 0%


Why you shouldn’t average:
1. Any steep decline in price usually indicates a permanent drop in value of the stock - don’t invest any more money in a losing stock ------------------------>>>> If decline of prices is due to forced selling?Then what is bargain hunting??

2. High risk – shares that you will need to average are typically high risk shares with a mediocre return even in the best of situations--------------------------->>>>> Accepted


3. It is always better to absorb loses immediately and go onto high ROE shares with good risk profiles – the sooner you divest and re-invest your portfolio ROE will improve------------->>>>>The problem is high ROE shares you invest in the first place are the ones that are on the decline (Fundamentally sound ones) Also what happens if the re-invested ones are also decline? Double loss..........

Actually I have tried averaging on selected counters. You have to monitor the stocks constantly and pick the ones suitable for this job. As per my experience JINS, LGL.N,LGL.X, PCH,CSEC etc are good picks for this....

Also there is something called Dollar cost averaging. Which is investing fixed amount of money during same time periods to average a particular stock. Successfully proven technique.

As per my experience people average due to many reasons. However very common reason is that it is easy to get rid of the stock when you average in the next bull run (because when you average cost per share will come down).

12Why do people average? Empty Re: Why do people average? Wed Sep 28, 2011 7:48 pm

pathfinder

pathfinder
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

zen wrote:It's just book keeping to fool yourself. If you buy 100@10, your average will be 9. If you sell at 9.50, you make 100@.50 loss and a 100@1.50 profit.
Calling it a Rs.100 profit is wrong. It's just one wrong purchase which results in 50 loss which you don't like to admit and a correct purcase which made a 150 profit, which you use to cover the loss.
yes bro avarage is the term use by lossers to make up their mind!!!!!

13Why do people average? Empty Re: Why do people average? Wed Sep 28, 2011 7:51 pm

nkalansu


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

watch dog wrote:
zen wrote:It's just book keeping to fool yourself. If you buy 100@10, your average will be 9. If you sell at 9.50, you make 100@.50 loss and a 100@1.50 profit.
Calling it a Rs.100 profit is wrong. It's just one wrong purchase which results in 50 loss which you don't like to admit and a correct purcase which made a 150 profit, which you use to cover the loss.
yes bro avarage is the term use by lossers to make up their mind!!!!!

A comment from an intelligent one. All the others are losers..........................


14Why do people average? Empty Re: Why do people average? Wed Sep 28, 2011 7:59 pm

pathfinder

pathfinder
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

nkalansu wrote:
watch dog wrote:
zen wrote:It's just book keeping to fool yourself. If you buy 100@10, your average will be 9. If you sell at 9.50, you make 100@.50 loss and a 100@1.50 profit.
Calling it a Rs.100 profit is wrong. It's just one wrong purchase which results in 50 loss which you don't like to admit and a correct purcase which made a 150 profit, which you use to cover the loss.
yes bro avarage is the term use by lossers to make up their mind!!!!!

A comment from an intelligent one. All the others are losers..........................


I'm sorry if I hert you,but this is the truth!!!!

15Why do people average? Empty Re: Why do people average? Wed Sep 28, 2011 8:38 pm

Investor99


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

nkalansu wrote:
watch dog wrote:
zen wrote:It's just book keeping to fool yourself. If you buy 100@10, your average will be 9. If you sell at 9.50, you make 100@.50 loss and a 100@1.50 profit.
Calling it a Rs.100 profit is wrong. It's just one wrong purchase which results in 50 loss which you don't like to admit and a correct purcase which made a 150 profit, which you use to cover the loss.
yes bro avarage is the term use by lossers to make up their mind!!!!!

A comment from an intelligent one. All the others are losers..........................



I do not agree as averaging has bought me lots of profits

16Why do people average? Empty Re: Why do people average? Wed Sep 28, 2011 8:46 pm

bakapandithaya

bakapandithaya
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics

But personlly i used to averaging.

17Why do people average? Empty Re: Why do people average? Wed Sep 28, 2011 8:49 pm

Investor99


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

Investor99 wrote:
nkalansu wrote:
watch dog wrote:
zen wrote:It's just book keeping to fool yourself. If you buy 100@10, your average will be 9. If you sell at 9.50, you make 100@.50 loss and a 100@1.50 profit.
Calling it a Rs.100 profit is wrong. It's just one wrong purchase which results in 50 loss which you don't like to admit and a correct purcase which made a 150 profit, which you use to cover the loss.
yes bro avarage is the term use by lossers to make up their mind!!!!!

A comment from an intelligent one. All the others are losers..........................



I do not agree as averaging has bought me lots of profits. Averaging does not make you a loser. There are times that you need to average.

18Why do people average? Empty Re: Why do people average? Wed Sep 28, 2011 9:14 pm

NewInvestor

NewInvestor
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

Averaging might not be a wisest thing in normal market. But are we considering credit clearance and force selling here? Some stocks are at all time low or good bargain price due to that. So why we refrain from buying more just because we already have them?

I'm new to the CSE than most of you guys. Correct me if I'm wrong... Smile

19Why do people average? Empty Re: Why do people average? Wed Sep 28, 2011 9:22 pm

zen

zen
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

Investor99 wrote:
nkalansu wrote:
watch dog wrote:
zen wrote:It's just book keeping to fool yourself. If you buy 100@10, and another 100@8 your average will be 9. If you sell at 9.50, you make 100@.50 loss and a 100@1.50 profit.
Calling it a Rs.100 profit is wrong. It's just one wrong purchase which results in 50 loss which you don't like to admit and a correct purcase which made a 150 profit, which you use to cover the loss.
yes bro avarage is the term use by lossers to make up their mind!!!!!

A comment from an intelligent one. All the others are losers..........................



I do not agree as averaging has bought me lots of profits

Of course it TECHNICALLY is a profit. But the reality is that you use a part of your profit to cover the loss and call the whole thing a profit. You might as well look at your overall portfolio value increase and call that a profit.

20Why do people average? Empty Re: Why do people average? Wed Sep 28, 2011 9:26 pm

gamaya


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

zen wrote:It's just book keeping to fool yourself. If you buy 100@10 and another 100@8, your average will be 9. If you sell at 9.50, you make 100@.50 loss and a 100@1.50 profit.
Calling it a Rs.100 profit is wrong. It's just one wrong purchase which results in 50 loss which you don't like to admit and a correct purcase which made a 150 profit, which you use to cover the loss.

I think this is the best way to describe it. May be while doing the book keeping to fool ourself we may lose an opportunity in a winning position.

21Why do people average? Empty Re: Why do people average? Wed Sep 28, 2011 10:47 pm

pathfinder

pathfinder
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

Let me put it in this way.100 of X share bought @20.00 then you have to pay 2000.no matter up or down 2000 already paid.The paid amount does not changed whether you buy more@ any level. Neither changed by crying or praying.

22Why do people average? Empty Re: Why do people average? Thu Sep 29, 2011 7:06 am

glad


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

Looks like it depends on the stock and not to use averaging as a rule on every stock that goes down.

23Why do people average? Empty Re: Why do people average? Thu Sep 29, 2011 11:30 am

zen

zen
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

Let me put it this way. Averaging is ok as long as you can make a profit. However you have to realise that your first purchase was a wrong decision and learn a lesson from it. As per my example, purchasing @10 is a mistake and you have to accpet that and find out why it happend, instead of thinking that you are always correct.

24Why do people average? Empty Re: Why do people average? Thu Sep 29, 2011 9:37 pm

rcharindu

rcharindu
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

zen wrote:Let me put it this way. Averaging is ok as long as you can make a profit. However you have to realise that your first purchase was a wrong decision and learn a lesson from it. As per my example, purchasing @10 is a mistake and you have to accpet that and find out why it happend, instead of thinking that you are always correct.

Agree with you up to some extent.
But some time it is a good strategy to follow in a bear market situation.
ex:-
suppose You plan to buy 10,000 shares from "X" company. instead of buying whole lot at once we can use Averaging strategy to reduce the risk.You can't always take wright decisions so this is good practice to follow.But it's not good for high volatile shares.
It's a investing strategy not a gambling strategy..... Smile

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