Index manupulation.....

prabath · 1 Index manupulation..... Mon Oct 17, 2011 4:53 pm

prabath

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C.S.E is becoming a joke, share manipulation first and now index manipulation tooo,final green day was the day before election where market was kept up by SLT,and today too JKH,SLT,DIAL started in the morning and later????can anyone explain this,are there people capable of index manipulation,If yes market can change the way around tooo,what do you think Shocked

Roboticfx · 2 Re: Index manupulation..... Mon Oct 17, 2011 4:56 pm

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moderators, where are you? We need you at this moment.

prabath · 3 Re: Index manupulation..... Mon Oct 17, 2011 5:00 pm

prabath

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Yes,where are the soo called experts,why don't they make comments on current conditions??Are they afraid that they will prove wrong???

dratnayake · 4 Re: Index manupulation..... Mon Oct 17, 2011 5:19 pm

dratnayake

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Machan, I gotta say that the mods are here to maintain this forum. I do not believe that they are bound answer all questions. They do more than enough by maintaing this forum and providing us a place to meet and share our ideas on the CSE etc.
However, I am eager to get some answers, but I do not think that the Mods or the Admins are bound to answer

Academic · 5 Re: Index manupulation..... Mon Oct 17, 2011 5:20 pm

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First of all I do not call myself an expert. Current trend is not something totally unexpected. It doesn't mean a market go straight down. Read my posts in following threads (also my other posts), you may understand my thinking.

http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t5149p20-massive-forced-selling-by-margin-traders
http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t6933-is-asi-heading-to-6500-level
http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t10360p25-disaster-is-around-the-corner

Academic · 6 Re: Index manupulation..... Mon Oct 17, 2011 5:27 pm

Academic

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Regrading index manipulation, it is possible as the indices are market capitalization weighted. Movements in shares with high market cap like SLTL can make huge changes in the index. Just buy and see 100 SLTLs Rs2 above previous close. If interested in understanding the context, read how the ASI is calculated in http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t6328-how-is-asi-is-calculated#42969

Rapaport · 7 Re: Index manupulation..... Mon Oct 17, 2011 5:40 pm

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The market at current valuations is still higher than regional markets.

Positives

Sri Lanka is growing at a rapid pace and the CSE companies are growing at 30-40% annually on average for past two years.

If this momentum continues then the CSE is undervalued based on forward earnings. Current trailing PE is around 16X and forward PE is 11X 2013E. Most regional markets trade between 12-15X. Given the positive story of Lanka, CSE is well poised to grow but not at the same pace as 2009-2010.

The Central bank deputy governor has said that there will be foreign inflow into the country and part of it will be into CSE is a thing to look forward to but details are murky about this so we will have to wait and see.

Quarterly results should start to flow in from sometime next week until end November keeping the investors on their toes for selected undervalued stocks. I dont see any negative growth for most companies and reports will show growth. Companies which had IPO's like VONE, SHL, EXPO, FLCH and others will be putting out thier results and they are more likely to be positive.

The budget is more or less likely to be investor friendly and i dont think we need to worry much about it. The political environment is also stable.

Negatives

Pressure on the currency due to widening trade gap can slow the economic growth and putting pressure on inflation and intrest rates.

Global recession keeping foreigners away and hindering exports to developed nations. This will also have an impact on the tourist sector.

Negative budget impact on the Motor sector where taxes are expected to increase.

Human rights issues but i feel the recession and middle east crisis are bigger headaches for the West.

http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t11616-sri-lanka-bourse-at-3-mo-low-on-forced-sales-liquidity-fears

The above are my opinions and critics welcome.
Cheers cheers