Are you still in trouble?

Stockmate · 1 Are you still in trouble? Thu Dec 15, 2011 12:48 pm

Stockmate

Manager - Equity Analytics

Posts : 193
Equity Stars : 5101
Reputation : 8
Join date : 2011-02-02
Location : Gampaha

I am not. I believed in my technicals. I followed them and took action at the correct time. I reveled them in this forum. But some gave me a nasty dressing down. So am not publishing ay thing i this forum. My technicals saved me so far.

aj · 2 Re: Are you still in trouble? Thu Dec 15, 2011 12:54 pm

aj

Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

Posts : 766
Equity Stars : 5429
Reputation : 45
Join date : 2011-11-25

Then why did you publish this?

nkalansu · 3 Re: Are you still in trouble? Thu Dec 15, 2011 1:53 pm

nkalansu

Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

Posts : 335
Equity Stars : 5179
Reputation : 58
Join date : 2011-06-11
Age : 46

Are you based on Technical Analysis or Fundamental Analysis?

Stockmate · 4 Re: Are you still in trouble? Thu Dec 15, 2011 2:00 pm

Stockmate

Manager - Equity Analytics

Posts : 193
Equity Stars : 5101
Reputation : 8
Join date : 2011-02-02
Location : Gampaha

https://i.servimg.com/u/f46/16/66/37/07/asinex10.png

Stockmate · 5 Re: Are you still in trouble? Thu Dec 15, 2011 2:04 pm

Stockmate

Manager - Equity Analytics

Posts : 193
Equity Stars : 5101
Reputation : 8
Join date : 2011-02-02
Location : Gampaha

I have simplified the story with above chart. A bear market rally is imminent. You will get a chance to recover losses/Minimize losses and exit. There is always people to jump in to trouble. So they will buy your shares

gaya · 6 Re: Are you still in trouble? Thu Dec 15, 2011 2:10 pm

gaya

Senior Equity Analytic

Posts : 88
Equity Stars : 4765
Reputation : 7
Join date : 2011-08-14

Anyone can proved past using technicals like astrologists do.. If u are so talented mention here wt will happen next 2 months... when we can have old gold days..??

aj · 7 Re: Are you still in trouble? Thu Dec 15, 2011 2:20 pm

aj

Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

Posts : 766
Equity Stars : 5429
Reputation : 45
Join date : 2011-11-25

Thank you for posting.
I wanted ask somebody who know technicals, how does these support lines etc. work with "good news". For example when there is a credit relaxation, rule change, SEC removal, etc the market moves up due to that and back down again. How does those things work with techincals?

I haven't checked anything but do those bull runs coincide with good news?

By the way there is a bull run just before the yellow rectangle too. Is it different?

raa · 8 Re: Are you still in trouble? Thu Dec 15, 2011 2:41 pm

raa

Manager - Equity Analytics

Posts : 246
Equity Stars : 5055
Reputation : 23
Join date : 2011-03-22

Very informative Stockmate. + reps...

The graph was a super effort by you and I agree, however I feel that this bear run will not fall to the support level around 5600-5700. Instead it might bounce off at the same level as the previous low (between 5800 and 5900) and show a double dip chart pattern. This might be temporary as I'm taking into account any sporadic bouts of buying that may take place end of this year and the start of the next.

You may be right about two more bear market rallies, I don't really have an opinion about that. However given how each bear run is longer than the last...this could be a steeper fall if and until volumes and buying returns to the market.

raa · 9 Re: Are you still in trouble? Thu Dec 15, 2011 2:43 pm

raa

Manager - Equity Analytics

Posts : 246
Equity Stars : 5055
Reputation : 23
Join date : 2011-03-22

Technicals do not work with "news" per se. How news affects the market translates into buying momentum and volumes which are measurable quantities which can be interpreted by technical analysis. The problem being that, they are as open to interpretation as reading a company's financials or debating how solvent a company is.

amilaela · 10 Re: Are you still in trouble? Thu Dec 15, 2011 2:54 pm

amilaela

Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

Posts : 430
Equity Stars : 5207
Reputation : 18
Join date : 2011-10-06
Location : colombo

thankssssssssss

Tiger · 11 Re: Are you still in trouble? Thu Dec 15, 2011 2:59 pm

Tiger

Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

Posts : 700
Equity Stars : 5517
Reputation : 85
Join date : 2011-06-03
Location : Dubai

Thanks for posting Stockmate.

I will just wait another 12 days and see what will happen. According to me only factor that can cause a another bear run is escalation of Europe crisis. I think such factors cannot be predicted in a technical analysis.

I think there is more room for ASI to drop given the fact that there are many overvalued counters, but still there are good companies up for grabs at fairly good value. So at the moment I am more concerned about the companies earnings quality than the market direction.

Over past one month I have increased my PF by 3 times. I think all value investors should not be worried into getting into positions now. The downside risk is very minimal compared to upside potential when compared with 6months back.

prabath · 12 Re: Are you still in trouble? Thu Dec 15, 2011 3:46 pm

prabath

Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

Posts : 822
Equity Stars : 5803
Reputation : 27
Join date : 2011-08-19

Tiger wrote:Thanks for posting Stockmate.

I will just wait another 12 days and see what will happen. According to me only factor that can cause a another bear run is escalation of Europe crisis. I think such factors cannot be predicted in a technical analysis.

I think there is more room for ASI to drop given the fact that there are many overvalued counters, but still there are good companies up for grabs at fairly good value. So at the moment I am more concerned about the companies earnings quality than the market direction.

Over past one month I have increased my PF by 3 times. I think all value investors should not be worried into getting into positions now. The downside risk is very minimal compared to upside potential when compared with 6months back.

Bearish tiger always coming with negative things.Isn't your bags full yet??????????????????????

Tiger · 13 Re: Are you still in trouble? Thu Dec 15, 2011 4:18 pm

Tiger

Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

Posts : 700
Equity Stars : 5517
Reputation : 85
Join date : 2011-06-03
Location : Dubai

[quote="prabath"]

Tiger wrote:Thanks for posting Stockmate.
Bearish tiger always coming with negative things.Isn't your bags full yet??????????????????????

LOL, in fact I have been bearish some time back, now changing the course that is why I said I have increased my PF dramatically. What I have been telling all this time is that ASI around 6000 is value for money BUT NOT FOR ALL COUNTERS. There is lot of noise and biased analysis in the market so I have been cautioning as I understand the situation.

I am neutral on the market direction at the moment and I don't believe the market to hit 6500 anytime soon. As I understand market need only TIME not credit or rule changes, any changes right now will be detrimental to long term health of the Mkt.

More importantly I am looking at EU developments since any escalation can cause the whole world to a grinding halt. In such an event I don't know where would CSE end up, remember we still depend on Tourism to pick up to justify Hotel sector high valuations.

Tiger wrote: I am clearing my PF...
by Tiger on Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:30 pm
I am clearing even my long term counters and moving to defensive stocks. The whole world is gearing for a global slowdown and SL may not be immune to that. Current market valuations are not up for value for money.

I am not always negative my friend, if you go back to my earlier posts in June'11 you can see that I was expecting a prolong bull run towards 2012-2015. But any artificial interventions will temporarily up the market and will kill it long term.

And finally my bag is not full as yet, happy hunting like a real tiger.

K.Haputantri · 14 Re: Are you still in trouble? Thu Dec 15, 2011 4:31 pm

K.Haputantri

Co-Admin

Posts : 2274
Equity Stars : 8872
Reputation : 390
Join date : 2011-12-06
Age : 74
Location : Moratuwa

Interesting Stockmate. I like your analysis.

gaya · 15 Re: Are you still in trouble? Thu Dec 15, 2011 4:53 pm

gaya

Senior Equity Analytic

Posts : 88
Equity Stars : 4765
Reputation : 7
Join date : 2011-08-14

gaya wrote:Anyone can proved past using technicals like astrologists do.. If u are so talented mention here wt will happen to ASI in next 2 months... when we can have old gold days (ASI above 7000)..??

@ stockmate no answer for me... Waiting for you...

Light of Hope · 16 Re: Are you still in trouble? Thu Dec 15, 2011 5:14 pm

Light of Hope

Vice President - Equity Analytics

Posts : 1014
Equity Stars : 5882
Reputation : 59
Join date : 2011-04-04

good one stockmate, please keep posting your analysis

@raa the ASI did fall to 5700 before the market was halt

Stockmate · 17 Re: Are you still in trouble? Thu Dec 15, 2011 6:03 pm

Stockmate

Manager - Equity Analytics

Posts : 193
Equity Stars : 5101
Reputation : 8
Join date : 2011-02-02
Location : Gampaha

Gamaya
Find and read my previous posts. Then you will find that I had predicted the present situations months ago. I have told earlier that I started emptying my PF since last June. By August I had nothing in my PF. I did only some swing trading. Administrators may help to find my old posts.

The market is falling at a rate of about 125 ASI units per month. Then in two months the support will be 5800-250= 5650. In six months it will be around 5100. The peak in the next bear market rally will be around 6400-6600. It differ with time.
Now the market has corrected enough. But lot of factors keeping the investor confidence down.
Technicals help us to play safely not accurately. You can not technically analyse today and depend on it for months. Technicals always change. You have to analyze again and again and see the movement.
Things may change any moment.
If you are a long term investor it is time to collect.

Stockmate · 18 Re: Are you still in trouble? Thu Dec 15, 2011 6:06 pm

Stockmate

Manager - Equity Analytics

Posts : 193
Equity Stars : 5101
Reputation : 8
Join date : 2011-02-02
Location : Gampaha

Gamaya
Read my previous post about Twisting of Moving Average Ribbon. I don't know how to find old posts

Stockmate · 19 Re: Are you still in trouble? Thu Dec 15, 2011 7:30 pm

Stockmate

Manager - Equity Analytics

Posts : 193
Equity Stars : 5101
Reputation : 8
Join date : 2011-02-02
Location : Gampaha

http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t7270-most-critical-time-for-ushttp://forum.srilankaequity.com/t7270-most-critical-time-for-us

ttp://forum.srilankaequity.com/t7218-what-may-be-the-bottom

https://i.servimg.com/u/f46/16/66/37/07/market11.jpg
https://i.servimg.com/u/f46/16/66/37/07/ribbon10.png
https://i.servimg.com/u/f46/16/66/37/07/ribbon11.png
https://i.servimg.com/u/f46/16/66/37/07/ribbon13.png
https://i.servimg.com/u/f46/16/66/37/07/ribbon14.png

manula · 20 Re: Are you still in trouble? Fri Dec 16, 2011 12:00 am

manula

Vice President - Equity Analytics

Posts : 1171
Equity Stars : 6015
Reputation : 55
Join date : 2011-04-18
Location : Qatar

Good post Stockkmate it is very good. No one can predict any thing happen according to news. It is a probabilty only. So graph will give the technical idea. (theory and practical)

Stockmate · 21 Re: Are you still in trouble? Fri Dec 16, 2011 8:56 am

Stockmate

Manager - Equity Analytics

Posts : 193
Equity Stars : 5101
Reputation : 8
Join date : 2011-02-02
Location : Gampaha

More details of Moving Average ribbon indicator that saved my money by exiting at right time.

here.https://i.servimg.com/u/f46/16/66/37/07/asirib15.png

raa · 22 Re: Are you still in trouble? Fri Dec 16, 2011 9:19 am

raa

Manager - Equity Analytics

Posts : 246
Equity Stars : 5055
Reputation : 23
Join date : 2011-03-22

This is honestly one of the most productive threads I have read in a long time. Thank you Stockmate. Very Happy

Are there any other indicators you use as well? You've highlighted moving averages, trend lines, and chart patterns which are visual technical indicators.

kas · 23 Re: Are you still in trouble? Sat Dec 17, 2011 12:09 am

kas

Manager - Equity Analytics

Posts : 129
Equity Stars : 5856
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2011-06-05

Good Work Stockmate

K.Haputantri · 24 Re: Are you still in trouble? Sat Dec 17, 2011 8:12 am

K.Haputantri

Co-Admin

Posts : 2274
Equity Stars : 8872
Reputation : 390
Join date : 2011-12-06
Age : 74
Location : Moratuwa

Good analysis, but I have a question(may be stupid one).

All these charts are drawn once the event is over and interpretation of the past data is easy, but how can one forcast the future accurately using past data? Of course the probability of accuracy is higher with well interpreted past data.

Any way thank you all for taking time off your bussy scheduls to educate us.

K.Haputantri · 25 Re: Are you still in trouble? Sat Dec 17, 2011 1:12 pm

K.Haputantri

Co-Admin

Posts : 2274
Equity Stars : 8872
Reputation : 390
Join date : 2011-12-06
Age : 74
Location : Moratuwa

Stockmate, you were following the ASI trend. There are other indices such as company specific, sector specific and also MI. ?Do you follow the trends of those indices as well.

Sponsored content

Name*:
Phone number:
Email address*:
Comments*:
* - required fields	Learn

Name*:
Phone number:
Email address*:
Comments*:
* - required fields	Learn

Latest topics

Are you still in trouble?

1 Are you still in trouble? Thu Dec 15, 2011 12:48 pm

Stockmate

2 Re: Are you still in trouble? Thu Dec 15, 2011 12:54 pm

aj

3 Re: Are you still in trouble? Thu Dec 15, 2011 1:53 pm

nkalansu

4 Re: Are you still in trouble? Thu Dec 15, 2011 2:00 pm

Stockmate

5 Re: Are you still in trouble? Thu Dec 15, 2011 2:04 pm

Stockmate

6 Re: Are you still in trouble? Thu Dec 15, 2011 2:10 pm

gaya

7 Re: Are you still in trouble? Thu Dec 15, 2011 2:20 pm

aj

8 Re: Are you still in trouble? Thu Dec 15, 2011 2:41 pm

raa

9 Re: Are you still in trouble? Thu Dec 15, 2011 2:43 pm

raa

10 Re: Are you still in trouble? Thu Dec 15, 2011 2:54 pm

amilaela

11 Re: Are you still in trouble? Thu Dec 15, 2011 2:59 pm

Tiger

12 Re: Are you still in trouble? Thu Dec 15, 2011 3:46 pm

prabath

13 Re: Are you still in trouble? Thu Dec 15, 2011 4:18 pm

Tiger

14 Re: Are you still in trouble? Thu Dec 15, 2011 4:31 pm

K.Haputantri

15 Re: Are you still in trouble? Thu Dec 15, 2011 4:53 pm

gaya

16 Re: Are you still in trouble? Thu Dec 15, 2011 5:14 pm

Light of Hope

17 Re: Are you still in trouble? Thu Dec 15, 2011 6:03 pm

Stockmate

18 Re: Are you still in trouble? Thu Dec 15, 2011 6:06 pm

Stockmate

19 Re: Are you still in trouble? Thu Dec 15, 2011 7:30 pm

Stockmate

20 Re: Are you still in trouble? Fri Dec 16, 2011 12:00 am

manula

21 Re: Are you still in trouble? Fri Dec 16, 2011 8:56 am

Stockmate

22 Re: Are you still in trouble? Fri Dec 16, 2011 9:19 am

raa

23 Re: Are you still in trouble? Sat Dec 17, 2011 12:09 am

kas

24 Re: Are you still in trouble? Sat Dec 17, 2011 8:12 am

K.Haputantri

25 Re: Are you still in trouble? Sat Dec 17, 2011 1:12 pm

K.Haputantri

26 Re: Are you still in trouble?

Sponsored content

New topics