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How Bear Market Rallies Can Fool You

+7
Kumar
anubis
illuminati
K.Haputantri
lokuayya
CSE.SAS
sriranga
11 posters

Go down  Message [Page 1 of 1]

1How Bear Market Rallies Can Fool You Empty How Bear Market Rallies Can Fool You Fri Dec 23, 2011 3:04 pm

sriranga

sriranga
Co-Admin

Just sharing this article for our members benefit and open for healthier discussion.
Please note always we need to see the both side of the coin.

How Bear Market Rallies Can Fool You

One huge trap that many investors fall into, both amateur investors as well as professional investors on stock market, is to fall for a Bear Market Rally. They are incredibly easy to get sucked into and are probably some function of hope and human nature that can be devastating if you don't watch out!

First of all, what exactly is a Bear Market Rally? Well, generally speaking, a Bear rally is a rally that occurs during a bear market. Stocks fall across the board for a long period of time during a bear market. After days, weeks, even months of watching stocks fall, suddenly you notice that they are starting to rise again!

You wait a few days, maybe even a week or two, and see that the rally has continued! Maybe the Bear is truly over! That's when you fall into the trap and start investing again! Inevitably the same thing happens in every Bear market...they turn back downwards. No, the bear was NOT over...it was just taking a little breather on its way back down.

What causes a bear market rally? Usually it has to do with short sellers, who have been selling short for some time and making a killing. Eventually the short sellers need to cover their positions and buy back in. If enough short-sellers buy back in any one time, this excess demand can make the stock prices increase. A short increase in prices can fuel speculation from people like you who think the bear may be over and buyback in.

Of course eventually all the short-sellers will have covered their positions and demand will decrease back to its present downward level and the bear will continue, often wiping out the increases that you just saw.

Bear market rallies generally tend to last about five or six weeks and not much longer than that. In fact, once a bear rally ends, it usually ends abruptly and the stock prices across the board usually drop dramatically right away.

I know that it is incredibly hard to watch the stock market increase day after day and week after week after an extended bear has shown nothing but plunging prices for months on end. It's just human nature to hope for the best, and hope that the bear is actually over.

That's the trap that most investors fall into. You have got to be able to look past that emotional side of it and instead focused solely on market fundamentals. If the fundamentals of the market have not improved, then the bear is not going to be over even if prices are increasing across the board.

So keep an eye on fundamentals, and as always in the stock market, try to keep your emotions out of it and you should be just fine in the long run.
Edited article By Jason Markum
http://ezinearticles.com

http://sharemarket-srilanka.blogspot.co.uk/

2How Bear Market Rallies Can Fool You Empty Re: How Bear Market Rallies Can Fool You Fri Dec 23, 2011 3:08 pm

CSE.SAS

CSE.SAS
Global Moderator

Good post on time.

3How Bear Market Rallies Can Fool You Empty Re: How Bear Market Rallies Can Fool You Fri Dec 23, 2011 3:20 pm

lokuayya


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

do we have short selling in cse?

4How Bear Market Rallies Can Fool You Empty Re: How Bear Market Rallies Can Fool You Fri Dec 23, 2011 5:24 pm

K.Haputantri

K.Haputantri
Co-Admin

Thanks Sriranga you have educated us all on possible pitfalls.

5How Bear Market Rallies Can Fool You Empty Re: How Bear Market Rallies Can Fool You Fri Dec 23, 2011 6:43 pm

illuminati


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

K.Haputantri wrote:Thanks Sriranga you have educated us all on possible pitfalls.

Agreed. good one

6How Bear Market Rallies Can Fool You Empty Re: How Bear Market Rallies Can Fool You Fri Dec 23, 2011 7:38 pm

anubis


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

CSE doesn't have short-selling. So if this is a Bear rally, what could be the reason? Manipulation? Anticipation of news? Foreign participation?

Cheers! santa

7How Bear Market Rallies Can Fool You Empty Re: How Bear Market Rallies Can Fool You Fri Dec 23, 2011 7:43 pm

Kumar

Kumar
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

In CSE there is no shortselling but the big fishes are buying and disposing in a correct time to fool the retail investors which is similar to shorting. (Entry and Exit)

8How Bear Market Rallies Can Fool You Empty Re: How Bear Market Rallies Can Fool You Fri Dec 23, 2011 8:29 pm

rijayasooriya

rijayasooriya
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

I doubt the value of this analysis in CSE

9How Bear Market Rallies Can Fool You Empty Re: How Bear Market Rallies Can Fool You Fri Dec 30, 2011 12:15 pm

Kumar

Kumar
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

Is this happening in CSE?
Fed up with the index dipping in RED.
Any comments?

10How Bear Market Rallies Can Fool You Empty Re: How Bear Market Rallies Can Fool You Fri Dec 30, 2011 3:08 pm

Stockmate


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

We are, most possibly, in the third bear market rally now. But some people get angry when we say so.

But the ASI moves within a 900 ASI unit band. So it is wide enough to make money. Best time for swing trading in small volumes. I am not afraid to buy close to the support line

11How Bear Market Rallies Can Fool You Empty Re: How Bear Market Rallies Can Fool You Fri Dec 30, 2011 5:17 pm

Kumar

Kumar
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

Stockmate wrote:We are, most possibly, in the third bear market rally now. But some people get angry when we say so.

But the ASI moves within a 900 ASI unit band. So it is wide enough to make money. Best time for swing trading in small volumes. I am not afraid to buy close to the support line

Agreed.
This guy ( Sriranga) time to time hit the nail in the proper time no?

12How Bear Market Rallies Can Fool You Empty Re: How Bear Market Rallies Can Fool You Tue Jan 03, 2012 3:58 pm

greedy007


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

Stockmate wrote:We are, most possibly, in the third bear market rally now. But some people get angry when we say so.

But the ASI moves within a 900 ASI unit band. So it is wide enough to make money. Best time for swing trading in small volumes. I am not afraid to buy close to the support line

You are correct stockmate.

13How Bear Market Rallies Can Fool You Empty Re: How Bear Market Rallies Can Fool You Sat Mar 03, 2012 10:34 pm

Redbulls

Redbulls
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics

If the fundamentals of the market have not improved, then the bear is not going to be over even if prices are increasing across the board.

That is million time true.

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